The role of the forecasting process in improving forecast accuracy and operational performance

Several operations decisions are based on proper forecast of future demand. For this reason, manufacturing companies consider forecasting a crucial process for effectively guiding several activities and research has devoted particular attention to this issue. This paper investigates the impact of how forecasting is conducted on forecast accuracy and operational performances (i.e. cost and delivery performances). Attention is here paid on three factors that characterize the forecasting process: whether structured techniques are adopted, whether information from different sources is collected to elaborate forecasts, and the extent to which forecasting is used to support decision-making processes. Analyses are conducted by means of data provided by the fourth edition of the Global Manufacturing Research Group survey. Data was collected from 343 companies belonging to several manufacturing industries from six different countries. Results show that companies adopting a structured forecasting process can improve their operational performances not simply because forecast accuracy increases. This paper highlights the importance of a proper forecasting-process design, that should be coherent with how users intend to exploit forecast results and with the aim that should be achieved, that is not necessarily improving forecast accuracy.     

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE USE OF SOPHISTICATED CAPITAL BUDGETING PRACTICES AND CORPORATE PERFORMANCE

Since the early 1950s, the academic community has tried lo convince corporate managers that there are sophisticated techniques that can improve the capital budgeting decision-making process. Over the years, many studies have documented a trend toward increasing business use of such sophisticated capital budgeting techniques. However, there is no clear evidence whether better performing companies are more likely to employ sophisticated capital budgeting processes than are lower performing companies. This study is an attempt to measure the relationship between capital budgeting sophistication and business performance. It advances upon earlier studies by utilizing a more comprehensive capital budgeting sophistication metric, incorporating industry-adjusted independent variables (firm size, risk, capital intensity, and degree of focus), and by focusing on United States corporations. The results are similar with those of earlier studies; there is no discernible relationship between capital budgeting sophistication and corporate performance.     

Corporate ownership and managerial short-termism: Results from a Finnish study of management perceptions

Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception—especially favored by the media itself—that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically, the relevant question is whether companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company's long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results indicate that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm's ownership structure, i.e. we find some support for the existence of potentially short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.     

The impact of interfirm relationships on investment: Evidence from the Polish dairy sector

Financial constraints and credit market imperfections are a major constraint on investment, growth and poverty reduction in transition and developing countries. This paper analyses the impact on investments of financial assistance programs as part of interfirm relationships. Our empirical evidence is based on a two-stage survey methodology. Qualitative evidence on dairy companies’ assistance programs was gathered in the first stage through in-depth interviews at the level of the dairy companies. Quantitative data on 290 milk producing rural households in Poland was collected through a random survey in the second stage. The empirical analysis shows that dairy companies have played an important role in financial assistance, in particular for dairy-specific investments. In addition, they had an important indirect impact on farm activities and investments through feed supply and loan guarantee programs.     

Accelerating New Product Development: A Preliminary Empirical Test of a Hierarchy of Implementation

Although time to market and a product's profitability are closely linked, simply speeding up new product development (NPD) is no guarantee of success. In fact, haphazardly adopting the numerous methods for accelerating NPD may jeopardize the potential success of the new product and the company. An article in a previous issue of The Journal of Product Innovation Management suggests that companies seeking to speed up their NPD process should take a hierarchical approach to implementing the various acceleration techniques. To improve the likelihood that efforts to accelerate NPD will pay off with shorter development time, greater market share, and improved profitability, it is recommended that a company start by focusing on simplification of the NPD process. From there, the company can proceed in sequence through techniques involving the elimination of unnecessary steps in the NPD process, parallel processing (i.e., performing two or more NPD steps at the same time), the elimination of delays, and speeding up of the NPD process. Ed J. Nijssen, Arthur R. L. Arbouw, and Harry R. Commandeur follow up on this earlier work by addressing several key questions regarding the proposed hierarchy of techniques for accelerating NPD. First, do companies that make extensive use of the proposed hierarchy develop new products faster than companies that do not? Second, do companies that make extensive use of the hierarchy enjoy better financial performance than those that do not? Third, regardless of the hierarchy, are products developed faster by companies that make more intensive use of acceleration methods than by companies that use fewer methods of acceleration? Finally, how does financial performance compare among companies that make more intensive use of acceleration methods without following the hierarchy and those that use fewer methods of acceleration? A survey of Dutch companies finds that the proposed hierarchy of techniques has a positive effect on NPD speed. The survey results also suggest that faster NPD is possible through the use of the various acceleration methods without regard for the order in which they are implemented. However, a strong positive relationship is evident between the hierarchy and the profitability of the product and the company. In other words, a random approach to NPD acceleration does not improve financial performance. By trying to accelerate NPD in accordance with the proposed hierarchy of methods, a company can avoid critical mistakes that might otherwise limit financial results.     

Misuse of the ‘modified’ t statistic in regulatory telecommunications

Since the enactment of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 (1996), extensive expert testimony has justified use of the ‘modified’ t statistic (Brownie et al. Biometrics 46 (1990) 259–266) for performing two-sample hypothesis tests on Bell companies’ CLEC and ILEC performance measurement data. This paper demonstrates how key statistical claims made about the ‘modified’ t in this setting are false, leading not only to incorrect inferences as it currently is being used, but also to the possible undermining of the primary stated objective of the Act—the promotion of competition in the newly deregulated local telephone service markets. A simulation study provides strong evidence for the use of several other easily-implemented statistical procedures in this context; they should be useful in other settings as well.     

Green logistics at Eroski: A case study

In today’s highly competitive environment, green logistics issues are gaining interest. This paper analyses how logistics managers could lead the initiative in this area by incorporating environmental management principles into their daily decision-making process. A case study is given to show how they can turn practices into green while simultaneously meet the efficiency objectives. We have chosen one of the leader companies of the Spanish food distribution sector to check this hypothesis. The study covers the introduction of several changes into its fleet management and the implementation of a methodology to solve vehicle routing problems with environmental criteria minimisation.     

Incentive pay for non-executive directors: The direct and interaction effects on firm performance

To improve corporate governance and firm performance, institutional investors and influential activists in the US recommend the use of incentive pay for non-executive directors. Policy makers in the UK and Australia, however, recommend against it. Motivated by stark contrast in the recommendations from these Anglo-Saxon countries, this paper investigates the impacts of incentive pay for non-executive directors on firm performance. The findings based on data from 178 listed Australian companies support both recommendations. Firm performance tends to be better when no incentive or high-power incentives are offered to non-executive directors than when low-power incentives are offered. This paper also investigates how incentive pay interacts with monitoring by large shareholders and debtholders to influence firm performance. This paper shows that large shareholder monitoring interacts negatively while debtholder monitoring interacts positively with incentive pay for non-executive directors to affect firm performance. Overall, the findings suggest that governance mechanisms recommended by agency theorists such as performance-contingent pay and monitoring can backfire if they are not designed properly. Both the direct and interaction effects should be considered when practitioners design corporate governance systems.     

An empirical study on coalition formation and cost/savings allocation

Interest has been raised by the recent identification of potential savings through collaborative planning in logistics operations. Even though substantial savings can be realized, two key questions exist: (i) how should potential savings be divided among a group of collaborating companies and (ii) among potential collaborating companies, how should collaborating group(s) be formed? These two questions are studied in a specific context: among potential collaborating companies; a subset, denoted the leading companies, performs collaborative planning on behalf of the others and together, they initiate formation of a collaborating group. We use the concept of a business model to detail such context. Based on the literature on network formation where potential savings are modelled by a cooperative game, four business models are explored in four different subsets of leading companies. We propose a network model as a method to determine the stable collaborating group in each computation. A case study including eight forest companies is described and analyzed. Results show that very different solution characteristics can be achieved depending on the business model selected.     

Multipoint contact without forbearance? How coverage synergies shape equity analysts' forecasting performance

Research Summary: Scholars regularly use multipoint contact (MPC) to explain how encountering rivals in different domains shapes performance. While most explanations rely on mutual forbearance theory, I propose that competitive deterrence does not adequately explain how MPC shapes performance in knowledge intensive work and argue instead that cross-domain synergies may play a central role. I examine how security analysts' MPC with publicly traded firms captures synergies in their coverage portfolio, which improves forecasting accuracy and information leadership. The advantages of greater MPC for a focal analyst are counterbalanced by rivals' observational learning, which reduces the focal analyst's forecasting differentiation. A natural experiment helps corroborate my argument: rival analysts' forecasting accuracy dropped for firms in which high MPC analysts perished in the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001. Managerial Summary: Competition in the knowledge economy often unfolds across multiple domains including product markets, geographic locations, and customer segments. In these settings, an actor's level of multipoint contact (MPC) in a domain captures the knowledge and other synergies available to the focal actor, which can improve performance in the domain. In the equity research setting, an analyst's MPC on a focal firm captures the likelihood that the analyst also covers that firm's suppliers, customers and important competitors. Using data on analysts' forecasting performance between 2001 and 2013, I find that greater levels of MPC on a focal firm predicts greater forecasting accuracy and information leadership but also lowers forecasting differentiation by attracting rivals who observe and benefit from the focal analyst's knowledge.     

The constitution of networks

The idea of a constitution of networks may be a useful addition to our ways of understanding what happens within the business landscape. We describe a constitution of networks as a system of values, norms, rules and other conventions that are shared by actors in business networks. Whether by intention or not, the constitution of networks provides a framework within which interaction among actors takes place. We argue that companies invest in the selection and replication of interaction practices that evolve over time as customs or common use. This involves interaction aimed at developing or accessing resources for future use in the relationships between actors. In this way, the constitution of networks circumscribes the actors' appreciations and expectations about how they and others should conduct business.This study is based on empirical research conducted between 2002 and 2005 in business networks of consumer goods in the United Kingdom. Significant actors include multinational consumer goods companies, large grocery retailers, consumers and public authorities.     

Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models

For telecommunication companies to successfully manage their business, companies rely on mapping future trends and usage patterns. However, the evolution of telecommunications technology and systems in the provision of services renders imperfections in telecommunications data and impinges on a company's’ ability to properly evaluate and plan their business. International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Recommendation E.507 provides a selection of econometric models for forecasting these trends. However, no specific guidance is given. This paper evaluates whether simple extrapolation techniques in Recommendation E.507 can generate accurate forecasts. Standard forecast error statistics—mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), median absolute percentage error and percentage better—show the ARIMA, Holt and Holt-D models provide better forecasts than a random walk and other linear extrapolation methods.     

Contract costing in outsourcing enterprises: Exploring the benefits of discrete-event simulation

Outsourcing is a business strategy that has received much attention. An increase in outsourcing has a direct influence on the complexity of supply chain networks and on the number of contracts required to manage a supply chain. Outsourcing contracts may be entered into relatively quickly without a full understanding of the true cost implications. The research described here aims to develop tools based on discrete-event simulation to aid outsourcing companies when costing contracts. Currently available software for this type of application is reviewed. A field study is presented from the electronics sector, describing companies’ needs with respect to contract costing and how simulation could be used in the contract costing process. Simulation approaches are described for different contract costing scenarios. The paper concludes with a case study of a preliminary simulation model that has been developed to test the concept with a specific outsourcing scenario.     

The performance implications of “grow or buy” decisions in the wine industry

This paper investigates how wineries’ decisions to grow or buy their provisions of grape affect their viticultural performance. While previous literature in agrarian economics suggests a direct association between vertical integration and performance, this research largely neglects the impact of transaction cost variables on governance mode choice and firm performance. This paper first demonstrates that neither outsourcing nor vertical integration per se result in superior performance; rather, a winery’s viticultural performance is contingent upon the alignment of winery’s governance decisions with the predictions of transaction cost theory.     

Improving Financial Performance with Hedging Via Forwards for Electric Power Generation Companies

In order to improve the financial performance of electric power generation companies, we show how additional on-peak forwards can be exploited to hedge against the risk exposure of nonpeak physical power, taking advantage of the competitive market outside the regulated service territory. Specifically, we model the evolution of the forward price as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process without drift and show how the optimal amount of additional on-peak forwards can be determined under the mean minus variance criterion via simulation. Furthermore, we show how the simulation approach and the analytical results may lead to a robust decision-making process.     

Resource Dependency,Innovative Strategies,and Firm Performance in BOP Markets

Low‐income markets have attracted the interest of academics, politicians, and business leaders alike. In recent years, numerous companies such as Unilever, Cemex, Tetrapak, and Vodafone have provided evidence that low‐income markets offer commercial business opportunities and that private companies can realize profitable business activities while simultaneously contributing to the alleviation of poverty. However, companies are challenged by constraining conditions such as poor infrastructure, nonexistent distribution channels, illiteracy, corruption, lack of enforceable legal frameworks, and violent conflicts when entering those markets. In order to succeed, companies develop new strategies, introduce innovative business models, and develop novel capabilities. Three innovative practices are commonly named in the literature that should enable companies to operate successfully in low‐income markets: (1) integrating the local population and local entrepreneurs to cocreate products; (2) cooperating with nontraditional or fringe stakeholders; and (3) building local capacity, which means improving the market conditions of low‐income markets. This study applies a resource dependence perspective as it provides valuable explanations on the interaction between companies and their environment, how companies cope with environmental constraints, and how the environment and different strategies affect business outcomes. By integrating a resource dependence perspective, the study theoretically frames the strategic recommendations of the literature and answers the underlying research question of whether environmental conditions of low‐income markets cause the execution of innovative practices and whether such practices influence the outcome of companies operating in low‐income markets. The research hypotheses are tested in a structural equation model against data of 103 firms operating in low‐income markets. The study reveals that companies integrate local actors to cocreate products and cooperate with nontraditional and fringe stakeholders to reduce resource dependency. Local capacity building, which means improving the local environment, is only applied by companies when strong partnerships with nontraditional and fringe stakeholders are established. Finally, the study shows that partnerships with nontraditional and fringe stakeholders as well as local capacity building have a positive effect on organizational performance. Thus, when companies aim to enter low‐income markets, they should not follow the recommendation of the transaction cost theory and internalize resources, but rather cooperate with nontraditional partners and invest in the local environment. Moreover, the study shows that market entries into low‐income markets require long‐term commitments to engage in partnerships with regional authorities, local community groups, and nongovernmental organizations. Without these partnerships, it is not possible to reduce high resource dependencies and to establish successful businesses in low‐income markets. Thus, governments should create general conditions that facilitate the creation of partnerships between nontraditional actors and companies, and assist them to improve environmental conditions in these markets.     

投资决策中基本折现率的确定及其调整

探讨了公司在项目投资决策中折现率的确定问题。提出了在公司项目投资决策中确定折现率应该采取的步骤:运用资本资产定价模型得到基本折现率,在此基础上考虑特定风险、股东要求的最低收益率、融资限额等因素,对基本折现率进行调整和改进,从而得到进行项目投资决策需要的财务折现率。     

Outsourcing decision-making aspects considered by IT departments in Brazilian companies

The study of Information Technology (IT) outsourcing is relevant because companies are outsourcing their activities more than ever. An important IT outsourcing research area is the decision-making process. In other words, the comprehension of how companies decide about outsourcing their IT operations is relevant from research point of view. Therefore, the objective of this study is to understand the decision-making process used by Brazilian companies when outsourcing their IT operations. An analysis of the literature that refers to this subject showed that six aspects are usually considered by companies on the evaluation of IT outsourcing service alternatives. This research verified how these six aspects are considered by Brazilian companies on IT outsourcing decisions. The survey showed that Brazilian companies consider all the six aspects, but each of them has a different level of importance. The research also grouped the aspects according to their level of importance and interdependency, using factorial analysis to understand the logic behind IT outsourcing decision process.     

Different recipes for success in business relationships

Companies need to manage business relationships successfully in order to stay competitive. Drawing on configurational logic, this study shows that companies can improve their relationship performance through leveraging the structure of their business relationships. However, relationship structures must align with the company's business strategy. To date, research has focused on individual characteristics of business relationships, but little is known about relational configurations, namely the interplay between different business relationship characteristics on the one hand, and the firm's underlying business strategy on the other. We apply Hoffmann's (2007) strategy typology, namely shaping, adapting, and stabilization strategy types, to operationalize different business strategies. Drawing on a sample of 658 business service companies and employing fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study confirms the existence of different recipes for success, that is, multiple equifinal configurations leading to relationship performance. For each of the three business strategies, different combinations of relationship characteristics are successful, each encompassing a distinct configuration of core and periphery conditions. While firms following an adapting strategy should stress behavioral commitment above all other relationship characteristics, the two remaining business strategies instead rely predominantly on different factors such as trust and communication. This study contributes to business marketing theory and practice by highlighting different ways to develop business relationships successfully.