A note on the underestimation and overestimation in stochastic input-output models

Here we show that (i) the Leontief inverse (I – A)^-1 is underestimated when the elements of A, the fixed coefficient input–output matrix, are biproportionally stochastic, and (ii) the output vector in a non-linear input–output system is overestimated when the final demand vector is stochastic.     

Evaluation of macroeconometric models

The disparity between the practice of applied econometricians and the econometric methodology they claim to profess has been widely noted. This paper attempts to examine and systematize the practice in a way that recognizes the variety of practical, theoretical and statistical considerations that applied econometric work must take account of. The discussion is organized under three criteria: relevance, consistency and adequacy; and the relationship between these criteria and the current critiques of applied econometrics is examined.     

A modified procedure for simulation of macroeconometric models

The rational expectations literature suggests that even the effects of unanticipated changes in policy variables may not be accurately described by conventionalsimulations of macroeconometric models. Beginning with Zellner and Palm's time-series approach to structural econometric modelling, a modified simulation procedure is developed to examine the effects of changes in policy variables which are consistent with historic time-series processes. A state-space representation and the Akaike Information Criterion are used to model exogenous variable processes, and results from modified and conventional simulations are compared.     

Long-term macroeconometric models: The case of Poland

Long-term forecasts and scenario analysis should be based on macroeconometric models. The core of long-term models is extended by introducing production functions generating potential output. Their specification includes total factor productivity (TFP) being representative of technological progress. It depends on knowledge capital, i.e. human capital, domestic and foreign R&D. Several channels of transfer of foreign R&D can be distinguished.The potential output differs from the effective output, representing final demand, underlying business cycle fluctuations. To study potential disequilibria a system of equations explaining final demand must be established.Thus the long-term macroeconometric model must be a complete model. Its use may cover long-term forecasts and scenario analysis based on model simulations.The paper outlines the above specifications of the long-term model using as example a new model of the Polish economy. The model is medium-sized. It covers demand and supply side, including prices and financial flows. The results of multiplier analysis are shown revealing model feedbacks, including generation of business cycles. The results of its application are shown: long-term forecasts up to the year 2030 as well as scenarios of development of the Polish economy, including recession scenario.     

A note on linear heteroscedasticity models

The familiar practice of estimating residual variance functions via regression of squared estimated residuals is examined in a method of moments framework. In many situations, the covariance matrix estimator will reduce to White's (1980) heteroscedasticity-consistent computation. Extensions to higher moments and multiple equation systems are discussed.     

A note on finite sample analysis of misspecification in simultaneous equation models

This article gives an alternative derivation [to that of Hale et al. (1980)] of the effects of misspecification on both OLS and 2SLS estimators.     

A differential approach to input-output analysis

The differential production theory approach is applied to input-output analysis under the assumption that each industrial sector behaves as a homothetic cost-minimizing firm. This yields substitution terms which take a simple form under input independence.     

A pre-topological analysis of the input-output model

The letter proposes a new method for analyzing the industrial structures. This method is founded on the pre-topological properties of the set of activities.     

A note on Walrasian equilibria in non-Walrasian models

We demonstrate that equilibria termed ‘Walrasian’ in non-Walrasian models are generally not, but rather Hicksian Temporary Competitive Equilibria in expected virtual prices. They are only Walrasian when the expected virtual prices would clear all markets.     

A note on estimating disequilibrium models with aggregation

When an aggregate disequilibrium is the result of disequilibrium in several submarkets, the usual maximum likelihood estimation, which is based on the min of aggregate demand and supply, represents a misspecification. The present paper compares ML with several nonlinear least squares methods that are appropriate for this situation. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that ML is robust with respect to the misspecification and may be preferable to the nonlinear least suqares methods in some situations.     

Effects of Eastern European and Western technologies on LDCs: a macroeconometric analysis

Questions involving technology transfer to less developed countries (LDCs) command an increasing interest in the world today. In this paper, two macroeconometric models are developed to compare the impacts of Eastern European medium-advanced and Western most-advanced technologies on the economic growth of LDCs. The models are then used to analyse data from the Egyptian industrial sector for the period 1952–1980.     

A macroeconometric analysis of the effects of taxation on financing and real investment in equipment in Canada

This paper analyses the impact of taxation on corporate financing and corporate investment in machinery and equipment in Canada. A coherent macroeconometric model of the firm's real and financial decision process is theoretically developed and empirically tested on Canadian data. Estimates of the impact of taxation in general and of the 1987 Canadian government's White Paper in particular, are analysed. The estimates suggest that income taxation has a negative but relatively small impact on equipment investment in Canada, and that models that ignore the link between the real and financial decisions overestimate the impact of taxation on real investment. With respect to tax reform, the White Paper reduces the incentive to save and invest in equity capital, and is expected to decrease real capital investment in the long run.     

A note on the triple difference in economic models

This article shows when a triple difference strategy using an imperfect control category improves on the double difference strategy for estimating an average treatment effect. For example, a product is treated in one place and not another leading to a double difference strategy. When does comparison with an untreated product in triple difference strategy improve accuracy?     

A note on the hedging effectiveness of GARCH models

This note compares the hedging effectiveness of the conventional hedge ratio and time-varying conditional hedge ratios (of which GARCH ratio is a special case). It is shown that, in large sample cases, the conventional hedge ratio provides the best performance. For small sample cases, a sufficiently large variation in the conditional variance of the futures return is required to produce the opposite result. The result is due to the fact that the hedging effectiveness measure is based upon the unconditional variance; meanwhile, the conventional hedge ratio minimizes the unconditional variance and the conditional hedge ratio aims at minimizing the conditional variance.     

Qualitative input-output analysis and structural information

The authors first introduce a slightly modified version of the quantitative theory of pull effects. After a short presentation of the basic ideas of qualitative input-output analysis with the aid of matrices, the qualitative goals of ‘completeness’ and ‘velocity’ are defined. The article ends with an investigation of the compatibility of these qualitative goals with the usual quantitative economic goals.     

The importance of the distinction between long- and short-term unemployment in UK macroeconometric models

This paper examines the degree of support for distinct duration effects on wages across a variety of wage equations, and investigates their importance in full simulations with three large-scale UK macroeconometric models. The paper begins by highlighting deficiencies both in the way that existing models determine the duration structure of unemployment and in the specification of long-term unemployment in the wage equation. By constructing a single preferred wage equation we test hypotheses relating to duration effects and, although tests are not conclusive, find some support for the use of short-term unemployment in the wage equation. However, it is also shown that the response of wages to changes in unemployment is similar regardless of whether aggregate or short-term unemployment is used in the wage equation, although this does not hold when the duration structure of unemployment changes radically. By substituting revised equations into the models we show that these results carry over to full model simulations. Thus although neglect of duration effects may not be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of standard macro policy instruments, this is not likely to be true when evaluating policies which are deliberately targeted at the long-term unemployed.     

Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 1: A technical note on combining input-output and ecological footprint analysis

In recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and/or pollution generation embodied in trade flows, including contributions that combine input-output techniques and Ecological Footprint analysis. In this two-part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and/or pollution content of inter-regional and inter-national trade flows (Part 1) and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments (Part 2). It is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input-output approach to capture international trade flows. However, in practice, problems of data availability and compatibility, and of computability of extended input-output matrices, mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied, but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit. What appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which Ecological Footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input-output accounting analysis. This allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short-cut methods in a transparent way. The objective of this paper is to provide such an account.