教育、人力资本与经济增长

本文从人力资本开发的角度对HPAES的经济增长进行了理论与计量分析,认为HPAES地区较高的人力资本水平对其经济增长起到较强的促进作用,而且政府在促进教育发展和人力资本形成的过程中扮演了重要角色.与此同时,也不能忽视HPAES地区人力资本开发现状与其经济发展要求之间还存在着一定的差距.     

Education, training, and economic growth

Ashton, D. and Green, F. 1996: EDUCATION, TRAINING, AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, £18.95 paper, £55.00 cased.

Booth, A. and Snower, J. (eds) 1996: ACQUIRING SKILLS: MARKET FAILURES, THEIR SYMPTOMS AND POLICY RESPONSES. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, £15.95 paper, £45.00 cased.

Deakin, B. 1996: THE YOUTH LABOUR MARKET IN BRITAIN: THE ROLE OF INTERVENTION. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, £35.00 cased.

Godfrey, M. (ed) 1997: SKILL DEVELOPMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, £59.95 cased.

Shackleton, J. with Clarke, L, Lange, T. and Walsh, S. 1995: TRAINING FOR EMPLOYMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, £55.00 cased.     

Integration and export performance in the European economic community

Zusammenfassung Integration und Entwicklung des Exports in der Europ?ischen Gemeinschaft. — Diese Arbeit versucht eine Quantifizierung von Integrationseffekten auf die Ausfuhr der EWG-Mitgliedsl?nder zwischen 1959 und 1965 bzw. 1959 und 1970. Dies geschieht im Rahmen eines multinationalen Input-OutputModells, in dem die einzelnen nationalen Wirtschaftsstrukturen durch sogenannte gravitationelle Handelsstr?me verbunden sind. Ein derartiges Modell erm?glicht die Analyse von ?Exportschaffung? (export creation) und ?Exportumlenkung? (export diversion) auf disaggregiertem Niveau. Andere Vorteile dieses Modells sind die Berücksichtigung von Wachstumseffekten und des Handels in Zwischenprodukten. Integrationseffekte werden als die Differenz zwischen tats?chlichen und hypothetischen Handelsstr?men bestimmt, wobei die letzten auf der Annahme basieren, da\ ohne Integration keine Ver?nderungen in den Handelshemmnissen erfolgt w?ren. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf starke Exportschaffung im verarbeitenden Gewerbe und auf Exportumlenkung bei Brennstoffen und Erzen hin. Relative Abnahme im Export nach Drittl?ndern — vor allem w?hrend der ersten Jahre der EWG ⋀onnte besonders nach 1965 mehr als kompensiert werden. Italien hatte, in Prozenten, den st?rksten Exportzuwachs zu verzeichnen, gefolgt von Frankreich und der Bundesrepublik, w?hrend Exportschaffung in den Benelux-L?ndern nur geringfügig war. Die erheblichen Exportanstiege im Zeitraum nach 1965, d.h. nach Senkung der Z?lle um etwa zwei Drittel vom ursprünglichen Niveau, verdeutlichen den Einflu von nicht-tarif?ren Faktoren, z.B. von integrationsbedingten Skaleneffekten, auf das Handelswachstum im Gemeinsamen Markt.

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Résumé L’intégration et le développement des exportations dans la C.E.E. ⟶ans cet article, l’auteur essaye de quantifier les effets de la formation de la C.E.E. sur le développement des exportations des pays-membres au cours des périodes 1959–1965 et 1959–1970. Les calculations se fondent sur un modèle de l’équilibre général spatial aux prix fixes, dans lequel les input-output structures nationaux sont liées par les flux commerciaux gravitationnels. Ce modèle permet l’analyse de la ?création d’exportations? et du ?détournement d’exportations? sur un plan désagrégé. Les effets de l’intégration sont déterminés par la différence entre le trafic actuel et hypothétique qui représente les flux commerciaux de ?l’anti-monde? de l’union douanière. Les calculations comprennent le commerce extérieur de onze secteurs, ainsi que le trafic bilatéral entre chacun des anciens pays-membres et le commerce extérieur entre chaque pays-membre et le reste du monde. Les résultats montrent une forte création d’exportations pour des produits manufacturés et un détournement d’exportations pour les combustibles et les minerals de fer. Les pertes d’exportations dans le commerce avec le reste du monde au cours des premières années de la C.E.E. étaient surcompensées pendant les années suivantes, particulièrement après 1965. Les exportations de l’Italie augmentaient — en termes de pourcentage — le plus fort, suivies par celles de la France et de l’Allemagne, tandis que celles des pays de Benelux montaient le moins fort à cause des pertes d’exportations au trafic entre eux-mêmes et dans le commerce avec le reste du monde. C’étaient les pays dont le tarif douanier était très haut avant la formation de la C.E.E. vers lesquels les exportations s’accroissent le plus fort. Les résultats montrent que seulement la moitié de création d’exportations pour toute la période 1959–1970 fut matérialisée jusqu’au 1965 quand les tarifs douaniers à l’intérieur de la C.E.E. étaient déjà réduits par deux tiers. Cela met en évidence l’influence des facteurs non tarifaires, comme les rendements d’échelle, sur la croissance du commerce intracommunautaire.

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Resumen Integración y evolución de exportaciones en la Comunidad Económica Europea. — Este trabajo trata de cuantificar los efectos de integración sobre la exportatión de los países miembros de la CEE en los períodos 1959-1965 y 1959–1970. Como método se utiliza un modelo input-output multinacional en el cual las estructuras económicas nacionales están unidas mediante corrientes comerciales gravitacionales. Este modelo hace posible el análisis de ?creación? y ?desviación? de exportaciones a nivel disagregrado. Otras ventajas de este modelo consisten en el hecho de que se pueden tener en cuenta efectos de crecimiento económico así como el intercambio de productos intermedios. Los efectos de integración se miden por la diferencia entre las corrientes comerciales actuates y las hipotéticas; las corrientes hipotéticas se determinaron bajo el supuesto de que de no haberse producido la integración no hubiera habido cambios en las barreras al comercio. Los resultados indican de que ha habido una fuerte creación de exportación en la industria manufacturera y una desviación de exportación en combustibles y minerales de hierro. Reducciones relativas en la exportación a terceros pafses pudieron más que compensarse mediante incrementos relativos, particularmente a partir de 1965. El mayor crecimiento porcentual lo experimentó la exportación italiana, seguido de la francesa y la alemana; en los países del Benelux la creación de exportaciones fué de poca importancia. El fuerte crecimiento de las exportaciones a partir de 1965, ésto es, después de haberse reducido los aranceles arancelarios intracomunotarios en dos tercios, ilustra la influencia de factores no arancelarios, tales como efectos de escala debidos a la integración, sobre la expansión comercial en el Mercado Común.

     

Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis

The cointegration and causal relationship between export growth and economic growth is investigated for the Nordic economies. On the basis of Johansen's technique and the augmented Granger causality tests, the evidence shows that these macroeconomic aggregates are causally related in the long run for each economy. Granger causality is unidirectional, running from economic growth to export growth in Denmark, and bidirectional in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The established bidirectional causality suggests that the expansion of exports is an integral part of the economic growth process.     

Institutions and economic performance: evidence from the labour market

We analyse the institutional determinants of economic performance,taking European labour-market institutions as a case in point.European economic growth after the Second World War was basedon Fordist technologies, a setting to which the continent'sinstitutions of solidaristic wage bargaining were ideally suited.They eased distributive conflicts and delivered wage moderation,which in turn supported high investment. The wage compressionthat was a corollary of their operation was of little consequenceso long as the dominant technologies were such that firms couldrely on a relatively homogeneous labour force. But as Fordismgave way to diversified quality production, which relied moreon highly skilled workers, the centralization of bargainingand the compression of wages became impediments rather thanaids to growth. Assuming that growth will rely even more inthe future on rapidly changing, science-based, skilled-labour-intensivetechnologies, countries with centralized labour-market institutionswill have to move still further in the direction of decentralization.Whether Europe in particular can accommodate these demands willhelp to determine whether it is able to re-establish a fullemployment economy in the twenty-first century.     

家族企业创业导向和企业绩效的关系

目前家族企业的相关研究还主要集中于治理模式、代际传承、资本管理与融资等方面,而家族企业的创业研究并不常见。本研究以家族企业为背景,对家族企业创业导向和绩效各维度进行梳理,并提出相关研究假设,为今后对家族企业创业导向和家族企业绩效之间的内在关系和作用机制的进一步研究做铺垫。     

Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049

This is the first paper of a planned ‘Indonesia 2049’ project, which asks how far Indonesia's economy will have developed 100 years after actual political independence in 1949. We compare dimensions of Indonesia's economy with those of two oil exporters (Mexico and Nigeria), three large populous developing economies (China, India and Brazil) and three Southeast Asian neighbours (Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines). Under Soeharto, Indonesia's economic performance was better than it had been under Soekarno, and above the average of the eight comparator countries, but below that of the East Asian economies. Our view is that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second administration must adopt a new economic policy framework to ensure successful transition to knowledge-based growth. This proposed new framework goes beyond the Washington Consensus of ‘getting prices right’ and ‘getting institutions right’ to include ‘getting the role of science right’ and ‘getting the conception of the reform process right’.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

家族持股比例对企业绩效影响的实证分析

本文以2003年110家上市家族公司为研究对象,在控制了董事会结构、管理层激励、企业规模及财务风险等因素后,发现家族作为第一大股东,其持股比例对公司绩效的影响并不显著,并在分析个中原因后提出,对将要上市或增发新股而面临股权稀释的家族企业来说,没有普遍适用的最佳持股比例,应根据自己的情况相机抉择。     

Institutional change,property rights and economic performance in post‐apartheid in South Africa

This article examines redistributive institutional change in South Africa within the theoretical framework provided by North (1979; 1981; 1991) and Eggertsson (1990). By drawing a distinction between the productive potential of an economy and institutionally feasible production possibilities, we can develop an analytical structure for evaluating how alternative systems of property rights can affect productive activity in South Africa. Although this exercise cannot predict actual outcomes in South Africa, it does accord property rights a central role in a specific theory of institutional change, and accordingly may assist in determining how certain forms of institutional change can influence economic performance in a transitional democracy.     

全面落实科学发展观 创造又好又快、好中求快发展的新局面

2007年,天津港保税区按照市第九次党代会的部署,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,紧紧抓住滨海新区开发开放的历史性机遇,开拓创新,埋头苦干,各项工作全面推进。经济总量创历史新高。地区生产总值、工业总产值、进出区货物总值分别完成300.3亿元、396亿元和330．6亿美元,增幅达到46．5％、55．2％和30％。第二产业保持快速发展态势,完成增加值63．3亿元,增长60．7％。     

Down on the farm and barefoot in the kitchen: farm labour and domestic labour as forms of servitude

This article evaluates the claim that working conditions for farm workers and domestic workers in South Africa can be analysed in terms of the constitutional prohibition against servitude. Recent research and statistics suggest that for most of these workers the conditions fit the accepted definition of servitude. Although a finding that the constitutional right to be free from servitude has been violated is not a straightforward matter, the existing research provides the empirical and legal predicates for such a finding. The appropriate remedy for violations of the 1996 Constitution's prohibition against servitude is the creation, by the state, of a comprehensive and coordinated programme designed to realise the manumission of these workers. The use of law as a tool for social transformation has inherent limits. At a minimum, however, a legal finding of such a constitutional infraction obliges the state to employ all available means at its disposal to restore the dignity of these workers.

No one may be subjected to slavery, servitude or forced labour. (Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, Section 13)     

An economic analysis of family size decision making with reference to the developing areas of South Africa

A neoclassical utility framework is used to analyze links between decisions about family size and socioeconomic variables using data for 175 women in KwaZulu, South Africa. The demand curve for children is specified within a simultaneous model of family decision-making. "Child education, women's opportunity cost of time and formal market participation were negatively related to fertility, reflecting substitution from numbers of children (time intensive) to fewer, more educated children (less time intensive) as opportunity costs rise. Child labour was positively related to fertility. Strategies to reduce population growth rates should therefore include improvements in women's education and employment opportunities to raise their time costs, and time-saving devices to reduce demand for child labour."     

Labour migration and economic performance: London and the Randstad,c. 1600–18001

In most studies of early modern north‐western Europe, England is regarded as the successor of the Netherlands in terms of economic leadership. Whereas related topics like institutional and technological change or changes in trade and capital flows have been incorporated into the research on the comparison of these two rival states, labour migration is usually omitted. This article aims to fill this lacuna by focusing on labour migration to the two core regions of the Netherlands and England: the Randstad and London. Two main research questions are raised in this article. First of all, in what way did the two cores and their hinterlands differ with regard to their demographic, economic, and spatial structures, and how did this contribute to different trends in labour migration over time? Secondly, what was the effect of the configuration of the demand and supply factors of London and the Randstad for their economies and for those who lived in them? By trying to answer these two questions this article aims not only to shed light on a hitherto largely unexplored topic in the comparative geographic, economic, and demographic history of the two countries, but also to contribute to the understanding of migration as a factor in the promotion of economic growth.