Estimating the determinants of stock price changes

I develop an approach for estimating the determinants of stock price changes that uses all eligible trade data and other observable parameters of market activity. This approach backs out the unobserved continuous price change distribution from the observable discrete price changes, and does not constrain the determinants to be proportions of the traded bid-ask spread. I show that theoretically impermissible results and skewed estimates of cost components are obtained when the model used for estimating the determinants of stock price changes does not attempt to uncover the mapping between the observed price changes and the underlying unobserved continuous price change process, and does not effectively use all eligible trade data.     

The design of executive stock options

A contract between manager and shareholder comprising salary plus options which are sometimes out of the money implies less risky managerial income but weaker incentives than a contract comprising salary plus stocks (or options which are always in the money) which leaves the manager as well off. Increasing the exercise Price and the salary so that (1) there are some states where the options cannot be exercised but (2) the manager is as well off as before always leads initially to a reduction in effort which outweighs any gains from improved risk sharing, leaving the shareholder worse off.     

论中国股票市场的投资价

从动态一般均衡的角度看,中国股票市场存在巨大泡沫,没有投资价值.但是,股票市场的内在规律又决定了中国股票市场未来几年将在巨大泡沫的基础上走向巨大的牛市,中国股票市场面临非常好的投资机会.这有利于中国政府抓住机会解决股票市场中长期存在的规范、发展问题,同时也为广大投资者、上市公司、中介机构带来了难得的历史机遇.     

论中国股票市场的投资价值

从动态一般均衡的角度看，中国股票市场存在巨大泡沫，没有投资价值。但是，股票市场的内在规律又决定了中国股票市场未来几年将在巨大泡沫的基础上走向巨大的牛市，中国股票市场面临非常好的投资机会。这有利于中国政府抓住机会解决股票市场中长期仔在的规范、发展问题，同时也为广大投资、上市公司、中介机构带来了难得的历史机遇。     

A股市盈率特征分析——上海证券交易所的数据验证

利用历史数据计算按不同板块 (全部样本股票、行业划分、每股收益大小、流通股本大小、流通股比例、流通市值大小 )划分股票市场 ,各板块市盈率水平的具体数值 ,并讨论各不同板块的市盈率特征。研究结果表明 :板块的市盈率水平与每股收益、流通股本、流通市值具有反相关关系 ;同时 ,板块的市盈率水平和流通股比例没有明显的相关性规律。从多个角度讨论单个股票的市盈率与其直接影响变量———股票价格和每股收益之间的相互关系。用数学模型论述股票价格和每股收益在影响市盈率变化方面存在的差异 ,并用实际数据验证股票价格、每股收益、每股收益的倒数对市盈率的影响程度。研究结果证实 :决定股票市场市盈率水平及其变化的主要因素是上市公司的业绩而不是股票价格。     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

Abtract  This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. Howerver, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free. cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. However, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

基于时间点的股票期权会计确认探讨

股票期权作为一种长期激励机制已得到广泛认可,但其会计处理程序却相对落后,这为高级经理人提供了以权谋私的机会.确认是会计处理的第一步,它决定了会计事项的属性.本文对国内外股票期权确认理论加以对比,结合会计确认的基础理论,分析不同时间点股票期权持有人在企业中的地位及其付出劳动的性质,提出了基于时间点的股票期权会计确认分析方法.     

The impact of investor structure on stock price crash sensitivity: Evidence from China's stock market

Stock price crash sensitivity refers to the conditional probability of a stock crash when the market collapses. It focuses on individual stocks' sensitivity to the market crash and can affect stock pricing significantly. Although the crash sensitivity of China's stock market is very high as a whole (Weigert, 2016), different individual stocks show varying degrees of crash sensitivity. This paper, adopting the perspective of institutional investors, explores the reasons for the difference in crash sensitivity in China's stock market, and finds that: First, institutional investors' shareholdings is positively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. However, after dividing institutional investors into professional (represented by financial institutions) and non-professional institutional investors (represented by general legal persons), we find that only professional institutional investors' shareholdings is negatively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. Second, the impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is influenced by stock liquidity and media sentiment: when the stock liquidity of listed companies is good or the media sentiment is strong, the negative impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is accordingly high. This paper, by highlighting the investor structure, attempts a pioneering exploration of the influencing factors of the difference in stock price crash sensitivity in China. Our empirical results enrich research on stock price crash sensitivity and the heterogeneity of institutional investors. They can also serve to guide regulatory authorities' development of institutional investors and efforts to maintain market stability.     

The non-uniform pricing effect of employee stock options using quantile regression

Issuing employee stock options (ESOs) transfers equity claims from current stockholders to employees, and thereby dilutes existing shareholder interests. Because employees are motivated to exert additional effort toward better performance, the value of transferred ownership claims proxied by ESO expense represents a cost of generating firm value. There are several econometric issues, most notably including the fact that the disclosed ESO expense is an endogenous variable. Without controlling for the simultaneity problem, inferences based on results from OLS analyses may be misleading. More importantly, a considerable amount of ESO expense data is censored at zero. Such a censoring problem can make the population distribution severely skewed, resulting in estimation bias. Therefore, we need to take into account the censored data issue. No prior studies have considered these two issues simultaneously. Failure to control for both censoring problem and endogeneity could explain the inconsistent results documented in prior studies. In this paper, we use the two-stage quantile regression (QR) proposed by Amemiya (1982) and Powell (1983) to examine possible nonlinear relationships, especially whether conditionally higher-stock price (or better performing) firms show a stronger negative pricing effect of ESO expense (that is, the relation between ESO expense and share price) than conditionally lower-share price firms. Our results suggest that the linear regression model greatly underestimates this negative pricing effect at higher quantiles, so the nonlinear relationship is obscure when using the standard linear model. We also consider alternative interpretations as to why heterogeneity exists in the pricing effect of ESO expense and assess whether our results concur with these explanations.     

近期股市价格走势与宏观经济协调性风险分析

股市价格走势与宏观经济运行的协调性是投资分析中很重要的研究问题。文章基于传统理论,对现阶段二者的协调性进行了分析,得出了其对投资分析具有较大风险的结论。通过深究原因,提出几个简单的解决方法。     

基于RBF神经网络的股票价格预测

由于股票的价格是非线性的时间序列,文章提出了基于RBF神经网络的个股价格预测模型,该模型优于传统的股市技术分析方法,又避免了BP算法容易陷入局部极小点和收敛速度慢的缺点。根据实验的仿真结果显示,该模型对于个股价格的短期预测效果较好。     

论另类股票市场的功能

融资渠道是中小高科技创新型企业发展所面临的主要问题,而创业投资又面对出口问题。文章认为另类股票市场能较有效地解决这两个问题。     

The impact of numerical superstition on the final digit of stock price

This paper investigates the extent to which the frequency distribution of the rightmost digit of stock prices is influenced by numerical superstitions. To identify the moderating variables that strengthen the superstition for numbers, we take into account factors including the amount of information, change of tick size, Chinese festivals, and bear market effect. Furthermore, we examine whether the frequency of lucky (unlucky) numbers as the final digit of prices decreases (increases) for firms with higher trading by institutional investors. The results indicate that investors in the Taiwan Stock Exchange tend to avoid number 4. Our results also find that the effects of numerical superstitions on the frequency of the final digit decrease when the amount of information increases. Investors appear to be more likely to avoid unlucky number 4 in the following four conditions: when the tick size becomes smaller, when it is one week before Chinese New Year, when it is the seventh month in the lunar calendar, and when it is in a bear market. We further document that institutional investors are not affected by numerical superstition. Moreover, our results support the notion that informed traders buy and sell more (less) actively the stocks with a lower (higher) frequency of prices ending with 4.     

Weak convergence of tree methods,to price options on defaultable assets

Abstract We discuss a practical method to price and hedge European contingent claims on assets with price processes which follow a jump-diffusion. The method consists of a sequence of trinomial models for the asset price and option price processes which are shown to converge weakly to the corresponding continuous time jump-diffusion processes. The main difference with many existing methods is that our approach ensures that the intermediate discrete time approximations generate models which are themselves complete, just as in the Black-Scholes binomial approximations. This is only possible by dropping the assumption that the approximations of increments of the Wiener and Poisson processes on our trinomial tree are independent, but we show that the dependence between these processes disappears in the weak limit. The approximations thus define an easy and flexible method for pricing and hedging in jump-diffusion models using explicit trees for hedging and pricing. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 60B10, 60H35 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G13     

Recovery of hidden information from stock price data: A semiparametric approach

This paper proposes a new methodology for measuring announcement effect on stock returns. This methodology requires no prior specification of the event day, event, and estimation windows, and therefore is a generalization of the traditional event study methodology. The dummy variable, which indicates whether the event occurred or not, is treated as missing. The unconditional probability of abnormal return is estimated by the EM algorithm. The probability that announcement is effective and the average announcement effect are estimated by the Gibbs sampler. How the method works is demonstrated on simulated data and IBM stock price returns.     

The impact of governance characteristics on the stock price of cross listed companies

The study examines the relationship between the country-specific governance characteristics of the origination country and the post-listing returns of cross-listed firms. In addition, the study researches the relative impact of those governance indicators on the abnormal returns of cross-listed stocks following the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) Act. The positive abnormal returns experienced by foreign companies around their listing in the U.S. are shown to be driven by the governance indicators of their home countries, i.e., the worse the governance characteristics of the origination country are, the higher the abnormal return for a cross-listed firm is. The governance indicators that influence abnormal returns to the highest degree are director liability, rule of law, control of corruption, political and economic development, and the integrity of the legal system. The abnormal returns generated by cross-listed foreign firms after the adoption of SOX are higher than those experienced by cross-listed foreign firms in the pre-SOX period. This outcome is pronounced for companies which score the worst on the combined set of country-specific governance characteristics. Thus, the main implication of the study is that foreign companies with a specific set of governance characteristics should consider listing on the U.S. stock markets. To be specific, companies from countries with lower governance standards, as reflected in low scores on director liability and control of corruption, are likely to derive the highest benefits from cross- listing on the NYSE or NASDAQ exchanges.     

The reversal of large stock price declines: The case of large firms

This paper examines the long-run reversal pattern for a sample of large U.S. firms that experienced significant stock price declines of more than 20 percent during a specific month. The results from the analysis are largely consistent with the overreaction hypothesis and significantly greater in magnitude than those reported by previous studies. Six and 12 months after their initial price decline, the stocks of large firms earn approximately 4 and 12 percent in excess of what was expected, respectively. However, the magnitude and trend of that reversal differs substantially across industries. Technology stocks experience the largest and strongest reversal pattern followed by manufacturing stocks, while service industry stocks exhibit a clear downward drift that lasts up to three years and can be described as investorunderreaction to the large price drop.     

Evolution of price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of price effects after one-day abnormal returns and their evolution in the US stock market, using Dow Jones Index over the period 1890–2018. We utilise several statistical tests and econometric methods (the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, R/S analysis (Hurst, 1951), and the trading simulation approach). The results suggest that a strong momentum effect between 1940 and 1980 after a day of positive abnormal returns was present in the US stock market, and it was exploitable for profit. However, after the 1980s this has since disappeared. Overall, price effects after one-day abnormal returns during the analysed period tend to be unstable in terms of their strength and direction (momentum or contrarian effect). Nowadays, the evidence for the price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market is weak. Our results, therefore, are consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004).     

Potential targets: An analysis of stock price reactions to acquisition program announcements

Stockholders of potential targets experience a statistically significant wealth gain of 0.59% over the 3-day window surrounding the acquisition program announcement. Potential targets are defined as those firms that subsequently receive bids. Using alternative definitions, such as a portfolio of all firms in the industry of the target or firms within the target industry with a higher probability of receiving a bid as predicted by a maximum likelihood logit model, yield qualitatively similar results. These findings suggest that events, such as program announcements, release significant merger related information well before a target is formally approached with implications for wealth effects at subsequent bids. As with normal targets, the likelihood of receiving a bid for targets that are part of a broad-based program of acquisitions increases in the level of agency problems, managerial inefficiency and in the proportion of tangible assets in the target.