Child hunger in the developing world: An analysis of environmental and social correlates

Using two complementary methods in a framework that allows incorporating both environmental and household-level factors, we explore the correlates of underweight status among children. We use individual children as the units of analysis in 19 African countries, and subnational survey strata in 43 African, Asian and Latin American countries. We consider the relationship between household-level demographic and health survey data, environmental factors from external geospatial data sets and two indicators of malnutrition among children aged 1–3, deviations from the international standards of weight-for-age and height-for-age. We discuss methods for data integration. In general, household determinants explain more variation than environmental factors, perhaps partly due to more error-prone measurement at the community level. Among individual children, some measures of agricultural capacity are related to lower incidence of child hunger, while among regions, measures relating to urbanness and population density show a stronger relationship. We give recommendations for further study, data collection and policy making.     

Population density,migration, and the returns to human capital and land: Insights from Indonesia

Rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare. To understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting, we examine the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes using panel data from Indonesia, combined with district-level demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and non-farm diversification, with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary Indonesia we find that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure. The effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high (above junior high school), while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density. The paper concludes with some potential lessons for African countries from Indonesia’s more successful rural development experiences.     

Food consumption in Mexico: demographic and economic effects

Disaggregated demand analysis is beginning to receive increased importance in food policies for developing countries. Using household data from the 1977 Mexican Income and Expenditure Household Survey, the authors estimate the income and demographic effects on expenditures for 9 aggregate food categories. In addition, they use a probit model to explore the effect of these variables on the purchase decision for 5 high protein supplying goods. The results indicate that demographic variables, as well as income, have important effects in determining food expenditures. The authors analyze these effects and indicate the role they might play in food policy programs such as PRONAL, the National Food Programme.     

Food policy reforms for sustainable agricultural development in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan

Given the present conditions of demographic growth and the complicated transition toward market economies in Central Asia, the problems of food security and designing policies to achieve it without compromising economic growth are at the forefront of policy agendas in these countries. This paper reviews food policy reforms in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan in the context of sustainable agricultural development. Analyzing the trends in the agricultural sector during the transition period, it identifies the major impacts of policy reforms on food security and enumerates future challenges for improving food security in these countries. It finds that despite the progress made in reforming their economies toward market-oriented ones, the three countries continue to face food insecurity to varying degrees. It concludes that there is an urgent need to further expand and deepen the reform process by enabling functioning land, labor, and financial markets.     

Governance and agricultural productivity: A cross-national analysis

In this study we examine the relationship between governance and agricultural performance by employing the World Bank’s Aggregate Governance Indicators. Based on a cross-country panel sample, two methods are employed to test the hypothesis that better governance fosters agricultural productivity. The empirical results of both methods support the hypothesis. As for the first method, the estimation results of the widely-used inter-country aggregate agricultural production function show that a country with better governance can produce more agricultural outputs, given the same amounts of agricultural inputs, the same education level, and the same climate condition. As for the second method, the empirical results of a structural equation model reveal that, given the same amounts of agricultural capital stock and land, an agricultural worker in a country with better governance produces more. Better governance can indirectly improve agricultural productivity by driving agricultural capital accumulation. Our empirical work lends support to the claim of Hayami and Ruttan [Hayami, Y., Ruttan, V., 1985. Agricultural Development: An International Perspective. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore] that governance is a basic factor explaining the poor economic performance of many developing countries. In order to improve the agricultural performance of many developing countries, apart from physical and education investments, more emphasis should be placed on improving the governance infrastructure of these countries.     

Toward a closer integration of population in development policies in Taiwan

The author examines the process whereby research on population topics has been evaluated and either included in or excluded from public policy formation and implementation in Taiwan. Sections are included on the relationship between agricultural development and family planning activities and on demographic concerns in economic planning.     

Self-appraisal,life goals,and national culture: An asian-western comparison

Positive leniency in self-appraisal was studied for its cross-cultural properties in three Asian and three Western countries. Nine hundred and eighty-three mid-level bank managers were surveyed by indigenous field workers to measure self-appraisal, life goals, and other demographic variables. Positive leniency was found in the three Western countries but not in the three Asian countries while controlling for size and type of organisation, managerial level and several demographics including sex, age, education and religious preference. Our measure of self-appraisal also served as a measure of organisational success. The relationship between success and work motivation was then examined for its cross-cultural properties. Organisational success and work motivation correlated across the six countries although the intensity of work motivation varied. The importance of work and of family were highly valued in all six countries as well.     

Trade and dietary diversity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

In public and academic debates, the linkages between agricultural markets and nutrition across the world are vividly discussed. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing the relationship between greater openness to trade and dietary diversity. It focuses on the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia where trade reforms triggered growth in trade flows and foreign direct investment, which in turn affected food systems in these countries. This shift provides a natural experiment for studying the effects of trade openness on agricultural markets and consumer behaviour. Reduction in trade barriers, for instance in the context of the accession to the WTO and the EU, and the gradual integration with world markets after 1991 had implications for diets through changes in production, prices and incomes. We utilize country-level panel data for 26 post-communist countries in the period 1996–2013 to assess the effects of trade costs, agricultural trade openness and incomes on dietary diversity measured by the Shannon entropy index. The results from fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation are consistent with previous findings that income growth affects dietary diversity positively. They also provide novel evidence that trade barriers reduce variety of products available in domestic markets, in particular fruits and vegetables.     

Impact of information and communication technologies on agricultural households’ welfare in Benin

Information technologies are very important to transform the agricultural sector and improve economic performance. Nevertheless, does the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) improve agricultural households' welfare? To answer this, the study used a nationally representative household survey, the Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) carried out in 2017 in Benin. The survey covered a sample of 15 000 households, however, the analysis focused on the 6502 agricultural households. An endogenous switching regression model was employed to control for selection bias and endogeneity issues. Results indicated that the use of ICT increases households' consumption expenditure by 89.6%. This implies that the use of ICT improves agricultural households' welfare. Other variables that affect agricultural households’ welfare include age, marital status, farm size, access to credit, ownership of livestock, membership in a farmer-based organization, and region of residence. Furthermore, the decision to use ICT in agricultural households depends on the level of education, age, sex, marital status, farm size, access to credit, ownership of livestock, membership in a farmer based organization, and location. These findings suggest that policies that promote the use of ICT are key to improving welfare of agricultural households in Benin. These policies must consider demographic, socio-economic, and institutional characteristics of households.     

Mapping natural resource-based poverty,with an application to rural Syria

This study presents advances in resource-based poverty mapping. It illustrates how agricultural income distribution maps can be generated at small pixel-level, providing an application of the approach in rural Syria. Census data on agriculture and population are disaggregated based on pixel-level agricultural productivity coefficients derived in a GIS environment. The approach, triangulated with survey results and compared with sub-national poverty maps, shows that the better-income areas of Syria are located in the irrigated and higher-rainfall areas, though lower-income pockets exist due to the presence of ecological and topographic factors or due to high population density. The method can be used for developing high-resolution, low cost maps for rapid detection of resource-driven poverty in low income countries where agriculture is a major source of rural income, and where poverty mapping is rarely undertaken due to the high costs involved.     

The information society in California: Social factors influencing its emergence

The authors identify three elements which will influence California's future. First, demographic shifts in the state's population have altered California's ethnic and cultural foundations. Second, the state educational system does not seem prepared to train larger numbers for information work, especially members of its growing ethnic population. Third, almost half the state's workforce is now employed in information-oriented work, whether in the industrial, service, or agricultural sectors. The authors demonstrate that the interaction of these elements has profound implications for California's development.     

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.     

Japan's agricultural policy failure

Despite Japan's great advances in industry and technology, the country's agricultural policy has not enjoyed the same success. The costs of agricultural products such as rice and beef are much higher in Japan than in other countries. The main reason for this is the low efficiency of Japanese farming methods. This article looks at the reasons for low agricultural productivity, consumer acceptance of high commodity prices, and ways to stimulate reduced production costs and thus improve the situation.     

Application of game theoretic analysis to a problem in demography

"Governments in certain countries have tried over the last two decades to draw most industry to the largest cities. The effect has generally been a large increase in both the population and land area of the cities, as the nearby rural areas are taken out of agricultural production and urbanized. Where the land is especially fertile, this can represent a definite loss to the country's agricultural capabilities. By studying the Nash equilibria we show that, given political pressures, there is a very real danger that this process will continue until all, or practically all of the land has been urbanized." The geographical focus is on Colombia.     

Cereal shortages and adjustment in the Sahel

In spite of insufficient agricultural and demographic statistics for this region of Africa, several estimates of cereal production per head suggest that the average harvest in these arid zones provides slightly less than the quantity needed for domestic consumption. Alarmed by the drought of 1968–1973 and the resulting famine of 1973,¹ the development agencies questioned the capacity of the Sahel countries to feed their populations. ‘Is self-sufficiency in food a realistic objective?’, asked Robert Hirsch at the Noakchott Colloquium.² Statistical analysis leads to the conclusion that improvement is technically possible, and that the eight countries of CILSS, as a whole, should be able to achieve self-sufficiency in millet, sorghum and maize. However, certain individual countries will not be able to meet domestic needs. Moreover, Hirsch states that urban demand is increasing for corn and rice, which are difficult to produce locally and costly to import. (CILSS is the Comité Inter-états de Lutte contre la Sécheresse au Sahel).     

Land pressures,the evolution of farming systems,and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis

Evidence assembled in this special issue of Food Policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of Africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region’s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on African development issues. This study synthesizes how people, markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in Africa, drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue. The papers herein revisit the issue of Boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints, but they also go further than Boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints, including non-farm diversification, migration, and reduced fertility rates. Agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of Africa’s rapidly changing land and demographic situation, and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification, a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region’s current demographic conditions, and limited nonfarm job creation. These challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas.     

Heterogeneous incentives for innovation adoption: The price effect on segmented markets

It is now commonly accepted that poverty alleviation and the development of agricultural value chains in low income countries require farmers to innovate. However numerous constraints to innovation adoption have been identified. In the literature, the market structures on which producers sell their output have received remarkably little attention. In this article, I argue that these can impact a producer’s choices with respect to the level of effort invested in changing agricultural practices. More specifically, due to transaction costs, contract farming and other market imperfections, output prices and production levels in rural areas are often jointly determined, leading to market segmentation. I develop a simple model to discuss how market segmentation induces non-trivial effects on incentives to innovate. Next, I rely on farm-level panel data from an extension project in the Peruvian highlands to test the empirical implications of the model. Producers that were not included in the formal market but close to it, performed better in improving agricultural practices. The indirect consequence of this investment is a higher price increase than the rest of the population, creating heterogeneous impacts of the programme, opportunities for economic mobility and a reduction in inequality. The evidence indicates how considering the effects of market structures leads to a more nuanced understanding of the process of agricultural innovation adoption in low and middle income countries.     

The Effects of Race and Worker Productivity on Performance Evaluations

Using personnel data from a large firm, we examine the role of race, supervisor's race, and worker productivity on performance ratings for a diverse employee population. Controlling for worker productivity and other demographic variables, black employees receive lower ratings than whites. These differences in performance evaluations are associated with the racial composition of the subordinate-supervisor pair. Racial differences between subordinate and supervisor lead to lower ratings for both black and white subordinates.     

The disappearing budget constraint on EU agricultural policy

Concern over budgetary costs has been the traditional driving force behind changes to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. While the recent MacSharry reform of this policy was more related to external pressures arising from the need to reach an agreement on agriculture in the GATT Uruguay Round, many expect the budgetary constraint to re-emerge towards the end of this decade, particularly in the light of the impending accession of a number of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper argues that it is unlikely that there will be any budgetary need to further reform Europe's agricultural policy to accommodate the CEECs. Applying the agricultural guideline to estimate resources and using a simple forecasting model of FEOGA Guarantee budget expenditure, the paper demonstrates that, under a range of plausible assumptions for the key variables affecting resources and expenditure, a significant positive margin should emerge between available resources and the cost of EU agricultural policy by the beginning of the next decade. This margin should be sufficient to pay the estimated costs of extending the present CAP to the CEEC countries without further significant reform. However, even though the budget cinstraint on EU farm policy may disappear, other factors, such as GATT disciplines and concern about agriculture's impact on the environment, will remain as pressures for further CAP reform.