Analysing agricultural policy reforms under transition in Bulgaria

The elaboration of an appropriate incentive system, including measures of agricultural price and trade policy has important consequences for Bulgarian agriculture. This paper offers a brief picture of the process of reform towards the establishment of a market economy in Bulgaria, as well as of the main developments in its agricultural sector. An analysis is then presented of the impact of alternative agricultural price and trade policy scenarios for the period up to 2002. The results show that the impact of price and trade policies is modest when compared to that of technological change and the increase in incomes. Adoption of the CAP will stimulate production, decrease demand and have strong adverse effects on consumers and taxpayers and wider negative effects on the competitiveness of the food industry. Thus the issue of extending financial support for structural policies rather than granting direct aid requires further investigation.     

国际粮食价格危机的农业政策根源

2007～2008年世界粮食作物价格的急剧上涨的原因很大程度上要归结于各国长期的农业政策。从农业贸易看,农业贸易限制程度远远高于工业贸易,这不利于粮食作物产量在全球的分配;从农业生产看,发达国家和发展中国家完全不同的政策导向,导致了全球农业生产的低效率。应对世界粮食价格飙升最有效的长远机制是全球粮食贸易自由化,减少甚至取消贸易扭曲的农业生产和贸易政策。     

Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments: How much leeway do West African nations have?

The 2008 food crisis has challenged the political legitimacy and economic efficiency of the liberalization of international agricultural trade. An alternative vision defended by the food sovereignty movement is that long-term food security cannot rely on dependency on food imports, but must be built on the development of domestic production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading.The purpose of this paper is to look into whether the West African nations can achieve food sovereignty given their various trade commitments and other external constraints. The particularity of our approach is to combine a historical economic analysis with a political approach to food sovereignty and trade commitments.Our results suggest that external brakes on the development of food sovereignty policies are marginal, as the countries still have unused room for manoeuvre to protect their smallholder agriculture under the terms of draft World Trade Organization agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements and under the international financial institutions’ recommendations. Rather the international environment seems to be instrumented by West African states that do not manage to secure a national political consensus to drive structural reforms deemed vital and further the food security of the urban populations over the marginalized rural populations. Recently, the regional integration process has made headway with a common agricultural support and protection policy project that could herald an internal political balance more conducive to food-producing agriculture.     

Economic planning of Eastern Europe and the USSR — the role of agriculture

Because of the large recent fluctuations in Soviet agricultural output, and rising consumer expectations and demand for food in East European nations, the latest five-year plans of these countries are showing an increase in the importance attached to agriculture and the food industry. The article examines the state of agriculture in the CMEA (Council for Mutual Economic Aid) countries and the probable effects of the plans on production and consumption. It appears that East European imports of grain are signs of prosperity rather than of gross inefficiency. The article indicates that grain production, and with it the trade balances, will improve significantly.     

Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.     

Foreign—domestic intersections in US food policy

This essay probes the major points. of intersection between US domestic and foreign policies in the realm of food and agriculture. Five issue areas are of specific interest: the farm income/consumer price/food supply matrix; international agricultural trade relations; economic, strategic, and diplomatic applications of food resources; LDC agricultural development and global food security; and food assistance.     

Trade and dietary diversity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

In public and academic debates, the linkages between agricultural markets and nutrition across the world are vividly discussed. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing the relationship between greater openness to trade and dietary diversity. It focuses on the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia where trade reforms triggered growth in trade flows and foreign direct investment, which in turn affected food systems in these countries. This shift provides a natural experiment for studying the effects of trade openness on agricultural markets and consumer behaviour. Reduction in trade barriers, for instance in the context of the accession to the WTO and the EU, and the gradual integration with world markets after 1991 had implications for diets through changes in production, prices and incomes. We utilize country-level panel data for 26 post-communist countries in the period 1996–2013 to assess the effects of trade costs, agricultural trade openness and incomes on dietary diversity measured by the Shannon entropy index. The results from fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation are consistent with previous findings that income growth affects dietary diversity positively. They also provide novel evidence that trade barriers reduce variety of products available in domestic markets, in particular fruits and vegetables.     

Alternatives for Danish agriculture

In the years prior to Denmark's entry into the European Common Market (EEC) in 1973, Danish agricultural exports began to encounter difficulties. As exports account for about two thirds of production in the sector, total agricultural production also stagnated in the 1960s and early 1970s. Entry into the EEC was expected to result in an increase in agricultural production; the increase has, however, failed to materialize.The fact that agricultural production has not increased in the years following entry into the EEC is due to a complex interaction of factors. One explanation is a fall in the number of agricultural holdings which has led to a considerable reduction in the productive capacity of the sector. The relatively high level of interest and costs has also had a dampening impact on the investment propensity. However, in 1977 and 1978 there has been a trend towards an increase in investment in livestock production which indicates an increase in total agricultural production for the years to come.An important part of the Danish economy is the integration of the agricultural sector with the large food processing industry.¹ The links between agriculture and other sectors are rising. The purchase of raw materials and means of production, plus the depreciation of machinery and building requirements, now account for up to 60% of the total agricultural production in terms of value. There is consequently a strong general interest in the future development of Danish agriculture. The recent international recession has also furthered an increased political interest in the exploitation of agriculture. Agricultural policy is thus tending towards a more central importance in the general and the specific economic policies.The central elements of the current discussion have been the volume of the production potential of Danish agriculture, and the market potential existing in the years to come. These considerations are discussed below, on the basis of both historical trends and of a study recently published on alternative development possibilities for Danish agriculture.²     

Regional trade and food security in SADC

A number of pertinent questions on regional trade and food security in southern Africa is addressed in this paper, namely: Should a country go it alone or should it belong to a regional trade bloc? Within the SADC region, should countries be content to be cereal importers? How can free trade be phased in? How can intra-SADC trade be expanded? Potentially sensitive agricultural products are listed and the sensitivity in grain milling and cereals is discussed in detail. The major conclusion is that trade in the region can contribute substantially to provide improved food security. There is also considerable scope for greater intra-regional trade in grain and other food products, and for greater cross-border investment in agriculture and agro-industry.     

Agricultural productivity and natural resource use in southern Africa

This paper examines the natural resource status of southern Africa and analyzes the critical linkages between the performance of southern African agriculture and natural resource use patterns. The implication of on-going natural resource use trends on poverty, food insecurity, and environmental degradation are also analyzed. The challenges that must be addressed including, how best to intensify agricultural production, the types of technologies to promote and the imperatives of production efficiency and intra-regional trade are examined. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how best to proceed in the future to be able to successfully address the challenges identified.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Agricultural policy reforms and food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

This paper provides an overview of agricultural policy reforms and their impact on food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Owing to increasing hostility in regional trade among the countries of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, like their neighbors, have chosen to follow a path of food self-sufficiency, which has biased their agricultural systems towards grain production. The paper finds that the land reforms in these two countries, which have dismantled the state farms, have resulted in reduced productivity of crops and declining food availability at the household level. It argues that reversing this trend will require increased investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research to improve crop yields, and in the short-term, food security interventions to protect the poor and vulnerable.     

Agricultural technologies for climate change in developing countries: Policy options for innovation and technology diffusion

Climate has obvious direct effects on agricultural production. The reverse is more apparent than ever as greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are tallied. The development and effective diffusion of new agricultural practices and technologies will largely shape how and how well farmers mitigate and adapt to climate change. This adaptation and mitigation potential is nowhere more pronounced than in developing countries where agricultural productivity remains low; poverty, vulnerability and food insecurity remain high; and the direct effects of climate change are expected to be especially harsh. Creating the necessary agricultural technologies and harnessing them to enable developing countries to adapt their agricultural systems to changing climate will require innovations in policy and institutions as well. Potential constraints to innovation involve both the private and public sectors in both developing and developed countries. The process of transferring agricultural innovations across agroecological and climatic zones is often subject to agronomic constraints. Often, the most binding constraints occur at the adoption stage, with several factors that potentially impede poor farmers’ access to and use of new technologies. Based on discussions of these constraints, we derive six policy principles and use these principles to suggest several specific investments and policy priorities.     

Population,food and agricultural development: A medium-term view

Trends identified in 86 developing countries over the last 15–20 years indicate that the increase in food production was less than that in domestic demand for food in as many as 53, and 34 failed even to keep up with population growth. The author presents the likely perspective for the next 10 years. His analysis focuses on accelerating the increase in food production; an equitable and efficient distribution particularly among the poorer sections of the population; increasing employment in agriculture and related sectors; and increasing the share of developing countries in expanded trade in agriculture products.     

Cropping for plant-based agriculture

Concern is often expressed about systems of agriculture and questions are raised as to whether alternative systems might be an improvement. The Food Group of the Technology Policy Unit at the University of Aston, Birmingham, has been investigating the potential for a move to a vegetarian food production scheme for England and Wales.     

Direct governmental production in agriculture in Ghana: Consequences for food production and consumption, 1960–1966 and 1967–1975

The article examines the effects of direct government production in agriculture in Ghana, both during the period 1962–1966 when it was a high agricultural priority, and during 1967–1975 when the government tried to withdraw. The article concludes that direct government production was a constraint on overall domestic food production in both time periods, although there may have been other social benefits resulting from the policies.     

Prediction of Wheat Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms in northern areas of Pakistan

New avenues of technological opportunities in agriculture are opening as we are further delving deeper into the 21st century, but at the same time, new challenges are emerging. One of these challenges is the growing quantity of food demand, which is highly vital for regional trade, food security, and meeting the nutritious requirements of the population. A timely prediction with accuracy about crop yield could be valuable for greater food production and maintainability of sustainable agricultural growth. This paper presents a predictive model of wheat production using machine learning. The northern areas of Pakistan which grow wheat are selected as a case study due to their importance in the country's agricultural sector. We collected data of five years and selected the best attribute subset related to crop production. We applied twelve (12) algorithms by dividing data samples into three sets. Experimental results helped to shortlist three algorithms for the final analysis i.e. Sequential Minimal Optimization Regression (SMOreg), Multilayer Processing (MLP) and Gaussian Process (GP). The Root Mean Square (RMSE) and Percentage Absolute Difference (PAD) metrics were used to validate the results. The SMOreg obtained the lowest PAD (0.0093) and RMSE (0.5552) values. MLP was a little closer with second-lowest PAD (0.0116) and RMSE (0.737) value. The performance of GP was found lowest due to higher PAD (0.2203) and RMSE (17.7423) values. Our findings confirm the predictive ability of machine learning algorithms on a crop dataset recorded in a localized environment, which could be replicated on other crops and regions.     

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector

In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture's share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.     

Food aid,domestic policy and food security: Contrasting experiences from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Food aid, both for short-term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium-term food “deficits”, is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries. This study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid (India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Zambia) regarding food production, trade, markets, consumption and safety nets, as well as the policy responses to food emergencies. The widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure, is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers, and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security. However, food aid is not the only, or in many cases, the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity. In many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in-kind.     

Food supply in Peru: Dependence and transnational monopolies

The Peruvian food supply system is characterized by the stagnation of agricultural production, by the increasing control of oligopolies and by dependence on imports. Traditional consumption patterns are changing and this has contributed to the national agricultural stagnation, the agro-industrial oligopoly and the increasing vulnerability of the country's food supplies. Against this background, the author reviews current strategies and policies for farming and food and resources. An alternative reform of the food supply system is then proposed.