Estimation of the manufactured export supply function from developing countries

Zusammenfassung Sch?tzung der Exportangebotsfunktion für Industrieerzeugnisse aus Entwicklungsl?ndern. — In dieser Arbeit werden zun?chst einige Schw?chen früherer empirischer Untersuchungen der Bestimmungsgründe für Industrieexporte aus Entwicklungsl?ndern diskutiert. Dann wird eine alternative Spezifikation angeboten, für die die relevanten Parameter mit Daten für Südkorea gesch?tzt werden. Der Ansatz besteht darin, j?hrliche Zeitreihen für 1963–71 und Querschnittsdaten für neun Industrien zu vereinigen. Die Ergebnisse der Studie zeigen, da\ das Verhalten der Koeffizienten für den effektiven Wechselkurs und die Kapazit?tsausnutzung uneinheitlich ist, w?hrend die gesch?tzten Koeffizienten für die Produktionskapazit?t, die Preise nichtgehandelter Güter und die verz?gerten endogenen Variablen durchweg das erwartete Vorzeichen haben und hoch signifikant sind, was darauf hindeutet, da\ diese drei Faktoren vermutlich die wichtigeren Determinanten des Exportangebots in Südkorea sind. Deshalb scheinen die Exporte mehr durch interne Angebotsfaktoren wie Produktionskapazit?t und die Preise nichtgehandelter Güter beschr?nkt zu sein als durch die Rentabilit?t des Exports.

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Résumé L’estimation d’une function d’offre des exportations manufacturières des pays en voie de développement. — Cet article premièrement discute quelques défauts des études empiriques recentes sur les déterminants des exportations manufacturières des pays en voie de développement. Puis, l’article offre une spécification alternative et des données ensemble avec des estimations empiriques des paramètres importants pour le cas de la Corée de Sud. L’approche dans cet article est de grouper les séries chronologiques annuelles (1963–71) et les données transversales (sur 9 industries). Les résultats de l’étude présente indiquent que la performance du coéfficient du taux de change effectif et du taux d’utilisation de capacité est mélangée, pendant que les coéfficients estimés de la capacité de productivité des prix des biens pas commercés, et de la variable endogène retardée ont le signe attendu en entier et sont fortement significatifs en indiquant que ces trois facteurs sont probablement les déterminants plus importants de l’offre d’exportation dans la Corée de Sud. C’est pourquoi les exportations apparaissent d’être plus restreintes par des facteurs d’offre internes comme la capacité de produire et les prix des biens pas commercés que par la profitabilité d’exporter.

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Resumen Estimación de una función de oferta de exportación de manufacturas des países en desarrollo. — Este artículo discute primeramente diversas limitaciones de estudios empíricos anteriores sobre los determinantes de exportaciones manufactureras de pa’ises en desarrollo. En seguida, el artículo presenta una especificación alternativa y datos junto con estimaciones empíricas de los parámetros relevantes para el caso de Corea del Sur. El planteamiento de este artículo es el de combinar series de tiempo anuales (1963–71) con datos de corte transversal (a través de 9 industrias). Los resultados del presente estudio indican, que el desempe?o del coeficiente de la tasa de cambio efectiva y de la tasa de capacidad utilizada es mezclado, mientras que los coeficientes estimados para la capacidad productiva, precios para los productos no comerciables, y variable endógena retarda son consistentemente del signo esperado y altamente significativos, indicando que estos tres factores son probablemente los determinantes más importantes de la oferta de exportación de Corea del Sur. De tal manera, las exportaciones parecen estar m’as constre?idas por factores de oferta interna, tales como la capacidad para producir y los precios de los bienes no comerciables, que por la rentabilidad de las exportaciones.

     

Export incentives and export performance in developing countries: A comparative analysis

Zusammenfassung Exportf?rderung und Exporterfolge in Entwicklungs-l?ndern: Eine vergleichende Analyse. — Dieser Aufsatz enth?lt eine vergleichende Be-wertung der Exportf?rderungsmaβnahmen und ihrer Wirkungen auf die Exporte und die wirtschaftliche Leistung von elf wichtigen Entwicklungsl?ndern, die bereits eine industrielle Basis besitzen. Die Arbeit konzentriert sich weitgehend auf die Er-fahrungen der Periode von 1966 bis 1973, in der die Exportf?rderungsprogramme der einzelnen L?nder im groβen und ganzen voll angewendet wurden. Die betrach-teten L?nder sind Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile, Kolumbien, Mexiko, Israel, Ju-goslawien, Indien, Korea, Singapur und Taiwan. Sie sind entsprechend dem Zeit-punkt und dem Ausmaβ ihrer Exportf?rderungsanstrengungen in vier Gruppen eingeteilt worden. 1973 stellten diese L?nder 68 vH aller Exporte von Industrie-erzeugnissen aus Entwicklungsl?ndern. Bei der Durchführung der vergleichenden Analyse hat der Autor neben den Resultaten anderer Forscher die Ergebnisse von Studien benutzt, die im Auftrage der Weltbank und für das ECLA/IBRD-Seminar über Exportf?rderung erarbeitet wurden. Der Aufsatz beschreibt kurz die Exportf?rderungsanstrengungen der einzelnen L?nder, die sich daraus ergebenden ?nderungen ihrer F?rderungssysteme und die Lage im Jahre 1973. Die Wirkungen dieser Mavnahmen auf Export und Wirt-schaftswachstum werden abgesch?tzt und Empfehlungen gegeben für ein ?ideales? Anreizsystem zur Exportf?rderung und für die allgemeine Allokation der Ressourcen. In den Schluβfolgerungen wird auf die Zukunftsaussichten für die gewerblichen Exporte der Entwicklungsl?nder eingegangen.

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Résumé Les incitations exportatrices et la performance exportatrice dans les pays en voie de développement: une analyse comparative. — Ce papier présente une évaluation comparative des incitations exportatrices et leurs effets sur les exportations et la performance économique dans onze majeurs pays développants qui ont déjà établi une base industrielle. Principalement le papier concentre sur l’ex-périence de la période 1966–1973, quand les schèmes des incitations exportatrices des pays individuels étaient totalement en opération. Les pays considérés sont l’Argentine, le Brésil, le Chili, la Colombie, le Mexique, l’Israel, la Yougoslavie, l’Inde, la Corée, le Singapore et le Taiwan. Nous les classifions en quatre groupes, en dépendence du temps et de l’étendue de leurs efforts de promotion exportatrice. En 1973, ces pays occupaient un pourcentage de 68 des exportations des produits manufacturiers des pays développants. En faisant l’analyse comparative, l’auteur a utilisé les résultats des études préparées sous l’égide de la Banque Mondiale, les résultats des études préparées pour le séminaire du CEAL/BIRD sur la promotion exportatrice, aussi bien que les résultats des autres chercheurs. Le papier brèvement décrit les efforts de promotion exportatrice des pays indi-viduels, les changes résultants dans leurs systèmes d’incitations et la situation existante en 1973. Nous évaluons les effets de ces efforts sur les exportations et la croissance économique et nous faisons des recommandations pour un système ?idéal? des incitations pour les exportations et l’allocation des resources en général. Finale-ment, en tirant des conclusions du papier, nous considérons les prospects pour les exportations des produits manufacturiers par les pays développants.

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Resumen Incentivos de exportación y desempe?o de las exportaciones en países en desarrollo: un análisis comparativo. — Este artículo presenta una evalua-ción comparativa de los incentivos de exportación y sus efectos sobre las exporta-ciones y el desempe?o de la economía en once países en desarrollo de tama?o mayor que ya han establecido una base industrial. E1 artículo se concentra mayormente sobre la experiencia del período 1966–1973, cuando los esquemas de incentivos a la exportación de los países individuales estaban en su mayor parte en operación. Los países considerados son Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México, Israel, Yugoeslavia, India, Corea, Singapur y Taiwan. Ellos fueron clasificados en cuatro grupos, dependiendo de la regulación y del grado de sus esfuerzos de promoción de exportación. En el a?o 1973, estos países sumaban el 68% de las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países en desarrollo. Para realizar el análisis comparativo, el autor ha utilizado resultados de estudios preparados bajo el auspicio del Banco Mundial, resultados de estudios preparados para el seminario CEPAL/IBRD sobre promoción de exportaciones, como también los resultados de otros investigadores. El articulo describe brevemente los efuerzos de promoción de exportación de los países individuales, los cambios ocurridos en sus sistemas de incentivos y la situación existente en el a?o 1973. Se evalúan los efectos de estos esfuerzos sobre las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico y se formulan recomendaciones para un sistema ?ideal? de incentivos a las exportaciones y para la alocación de recursos en general. Finalmente, al formular las conclusiones de este articulo, se hacen con-sideraciones sobre las perspectivas futuras para las exportaciones de bienes manu-factuardos de países en desarrollo.

     

开展融资融券交易的条件分析

融资融券交易是完善证券市场投资及资产配置功能必不可少的基本制度,但也存在不少风险,只有条件具备才能予以推行。为迎接它的到来,证券管理机构还必须加紧做以下工作:①修改法律法规。主要是修改《证券法》中不允许融资融券交易的条款,预计2006年人代会很有机会能通过。②股权分置改革。尽管困难重重,争议不断,但现正在加速进行中。③提高证券管理机构和券商基金的风险管理能力。融资融券交易可能令交易风险大幅提高,必须尽快重组监管架构,完善风险内控流程,并辅以“核准制”和“交易额度制”等行政制度以加强管理。     

The determinants of export subsidiary formation by US transnationals in developing countries: An inter-industry analysis

This paper examines the inter-industry variation in US transnationals' propensity to invest in export-orientated manufacturing subsidiaries in less developed countries. The results obtained from the empirical analysis indicate that a significant proportion of the variation can be explained by industry characteristics, such as factor-intensity, research and development expenditure, and marketing requirements. This study draws attention to a number of data limitations, and suggests that further progress in this area of investigation will depend on the assembly of a more refined data base.     

Optimal monetary reserves for developing countries

Zusammenfassung Optimale monet?re Reserven für Entwicklungsl?nder. — In dem vorliegenden Aufsatz wird ein Modell zur Bestimmung der optimalen Hóhe der monet?ren Reserven für ein Entwicklungsland vorgelegt. Ein optimaler Bestand an W?hrungsreserven wird als der Betrag definiert, der es einem Entwicklungsland ermóglicht, seine bei einem gegebenen festen Wechselkurs entstchenden, tempor?ren und unvorhergeschenen Zahlungsbilanzdefizite zu finanzieren, die sich in einer Planungsperiode ergeben, und gleichzeitig dem Lande einen Vorteil zu verschaffen, der den Alternativkosten der Haltung dieser Reserven entspricht. Das Modell wird auf folgende ausgew?hlte asiatische Entwicklungsl?nder angewendet, für die hinreichende Daten verfügbar sind: Ceylon, Indien, Republik Korea, Pakistan, Philippinen, Taiwan und Thailand.

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Résumé Réserves monétaires optimales pour pays à développer. — Dans cet article on présente un modèle pour déterminer le montant optimal des réserves monétaires d’un pays à développer. On considère comme montant optimal celui qui permet à un pays à développer de financer, à un cours du change fixe donné, les déficits temporaires et imprévus de sa balance des paiements, qui surviennent pendant une période de planification, et qui lui permet en même temps de procurer à ce pays un avantage égal aux co?ts alternatifs de l’entretien de ces réserves. On a choisi, pour l’application de ce modèle, les pays asiatiques de développement pour lesquels on avait les données nécaissaires. Ce sont: Ceylan, Inde, République Coréenne, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan et Tha?lande.

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Resumen La reserva monetaria óptima para paises en desarrollo. — En el presente articulo se presenta un modelo para determinar el volumen óptimo de las reservas monetarias de un país en desarrollo. Este volumen óptimo se define como la reserva que, con tipos de cambios fijos, permita al pais financiar aquellos déficit en la balanza de pagos, temporales e imprevistos, que surjan durante un período de planificación, y que le proporcione a este país un beneficio que equivalga a los ?opportunity costs? engendrados por la mantención de reservas monetarias. Este modelo se aplica a varios países asiáticos, para los cuales existen los datos necesarios, a saber: Ceilán, India, Rep?blica de Corea, Paquistán, Filipinas, Formosa y Tailandia.

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Riassunto Ottimali riserve monetarie per Paesi in via di sviluppo. — Nel presente articolo viene presentato un modello per la determinazione dell’ammontare ottimale delie riserve monetarie per un Paese in via di sviluppo. Un ottimale fondo di riserve valutarie è definita la somma che renda possibile ad un Paese in via di sviluppo di finanziare i suoi deficit temporanei ed imprevisti della bilancia dei pagamenti che si formano in un cambio fisso dato e che risultano in un periodo di pianificazione, e contemporaneamente di procurare al Paese un vantaggio che corrisponda ai costi alternativi del comportamento di queste riserve. Il modello è applicato ai seguenti prescelti Paesi asiatici in via di sviluppo, per i quali sono disponibili sufficienti dati: Ceylon, India, Repubblica di Corea, Pakistan, Filippine, Formosa e Tailandia.

     

Motivations for aid to developing countries

This paper attempts to identify the underlying principles of aid allocation, and particularly the balance of motivations as between the needs of recipient countries and the interests of donor countries. Two alternative models are fitted by cross-country regressions to bilateral and multilateral aid flows to some 80 developing countries in 1969–1970 and 1978–1980. The first (recipient need) model assumes that all aid is given to compensate for shortfalls in domestic resources. This model provides a reasonable explanation for the distribution of multilateral aid, but it is clearly not applicable for bilateral aid flows. The second (donor interest) model assumes that all aid serves only donor interests, defined to cover political/security investment and trade interests. This model gives generally good explanations of bilateral aid, but is a poor fit for multilateral aid. The relative importance of the various donor interests differs sharply among donors. The paper ends with an analysis of the shift in the balance of aid over the 1970s towards the recipient need element, and with a reference to the sharp change in policy in the 1980s towards increasing emphasis on donor interest aid.     

The international environment for adjustment in developing countries

The international disequilibrium of the 1970s imposed on developing countries a burden of adjustment out of all proportion to their degree of responsibility for the imbalances incurred. The application of traditional stabilization programmes resulted, in a number of cases, in severe disruption of development. There was, moreover, a perverse distribution of the burden of adjustment, the poorest countries suffering most. A number of changes in international policy and practice are required to avoid a repetition of this experience. In particular, special provision is needed for cases in which deficits are largely of external origin, involving more adequate IMF financing at low conditionality so as to permit a stretching out of the period of adjustment.     

Construction industry in developing countries

This paper provides a review of the construction capability available in the developing countries to meet the demand for shelter. It discusses the role of construction in the process of development and its importance to economic growth. It considers the issues facing the growth of a viable indigenous construction industry in the developing world within the context of the activities involved in the creation of constructed facilities – planning, design, construction and maintenance; it also examines the environment within which the industry has developed. For each construction activity the paper reviews available capabilities, the various resources needed for the development of an indigenous industry, and some possible means of accommodating these needs.     

Chinese contractors in developing countries

This paper uses turnover data from Chinese contracted projects in as many as 87 low and lower middle income countries from 1998 to 2009. Economic fundamentals motivate Chinese contractor presence in developing countries as their revenues are positively associated with countries’ per capita income and expected growth. All else equal, contractor project revenues are higher in countries with stronger political rights regimes. Moreover, the estimated positive effect of improvements in political freedom is largest among countries with high fuel endowment, but lowest among countries with high ores and metals endowments. Conclusions relating Chinese contractor activities, perceptions on the level corruption, and resource endowment among sub-Saharan African countries must remain tentative as the estimated relationships are sensitive to the corruption indices used.     

Fiscal disequilibrium in developing countries

Fiscal equilibrium necessitates that ‘permanent’ government expenditures be covered by ‘permanent’ government revenues. The concept of ‘permanent’ goverment expenditures and revenues takes into account future revenue from capital investments as well as temporary windfalls. Hence, equilibrium may exist despite temporary imbalance between revenue and expenditure. The causes of disequilibrium can be classified into five categories: export boom; price-inelastic tax system; public enterprise performance; increased expenditure produced by political exigencies or administrative weaknesses; and worsening terms of trade. In practice, unrealistic customs valuations, specific as opposed to ad valorem taxes and administrative difficulties have been the most common sources of declining government revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product. Increased subsidies both to consumer goods and to public enterprises as well as inadequate control mechanisms have been the most frequent causes of rising government expenditure.     

Foreign trademarks in developing countries

Foreign trademarks are used in some cases to cover imported goods and generally products made in the host countries by foreign manufacturing subsidiaries and licensees. This industrial property right is a major source of market power for those subsidiaries making consumer goods. Domestic enterprises making similar goods must either accept a reduced share of the market or must enter into trademark license agreements. But even in those cases, although licensees of foreign-owned trademarks receive a current profit out of the licence, they cannot enjoy the result of the goodwill development.Although the advertising expenditures are borne by the consumers of the developing countries, the accrual in goodwill is for the benefit of non-resident owners of this intangible asset. These private benefits — mostly appropriated by the foreign trademark owner — can be considered as net social costs to the recipient country.     

Determinants of fertility in developing countries

The contribution of agricultural modernization to changes in fertility in developing countries was examined. A model for the determinants of both fertility and infant mortality--hypothesized to be positively related--was specified and applied to cross-sectional data for 75 developing countries for the year 1971. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of labor and land, and density of population for agricultural land were highly correlated with the crude birth rate. The only other exogenous variables highly correlated with each other were productivity per unit of labor and infant mortality, and productivity per unit of land and population density for agricultural areas. The coefficient of population density of agricultural areas suggested a negative impact of density on fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of land and labor, and density of population of agricultural areas explained 85% of the intercountry variation in fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity of land, and productivity of labor were of descending order of importance in determining the crude birth rates in the countries analyzed. 68% of the intercountry variation in infant mortality was explained by fertility, adult literacy, per capita energy consumption, gini-coefficient of income distribution, population per hospital bed, and protein supply. Adult literacy, crude birth rates, population per hospital bed, per capita energy consumption, per capita protein supply, and gini-coefficient of income distribution were of descending order of importance in determining infant mortality rates. All of the variables that affected infant mortality directly affected fertility indirectly; conversely, all the variables that affected fertility directly affected infant mortality indirectly. Overall, these results confirm that agricultural modernization does exert an effect on fertility. The task in developing countries is to break the vicious cycle of infant mortality and fertility. This can be achieved both through family planning programs and the diffusion of health programs to lower infant mortality.     

One explanation for the demographic transition in developing countries

This paper considers, in an overlapping generations model, thefertility choice of parents confronted with the possibilityof child mortality. The motive for having children is assumedto be old age security and, therefore, not altruistic It isshown first in a partial equilibrium setting that reductionsin child mortality can induce a demographic transition. In ageneral equilibrium setting, it is shown that a marginal reductionin child mortality can raise or lower the standard of livingof the steady-state equilibrium population, depending on theinitial level of child mortality. Finally the paper draws somerelevant policy implications.     

The economic effects of windfall gains in export earnings, 1975–1978

This paper reviews the effects of recent dramatic increases in beverage prices (1975–1978) on a sample of countries that are highly dependent on these commodities. In most countries, the increase in producer prices was restricted, allowing substantial sums to accrue to the Central Government and the commodity organizations. The countercyclical impact of fiscal policy was often limited by the rise in development spending. This policy stance and the lack of monetary restraint contributed to a substantial rise in imports. Consequently, in many of the sample countries, the external reserve position in 1978 was little better than before the windfall gain.     

External debt-servicing capacity in developing countries

Conclusion The debt-servicing problem of the nonoil developing countries, and the black African countries in particular, has been of heightened concern to the world financial and economic community. The balance of payments bottlenecks in the developing countries that have resulted have slowed down the rate of economic growth in these countries. In turn, the slower rate of growth in these economies tends to reduce their ability to demand the industrial outputs of the industrial countries.