Fertiliser and food policy in LDCs

At a time of fertiliser scarcity and high prices it is important to know more about the poorly understood relationships between fertiliser and food production. Fertiliser price increases are reflected in increased prices for food which poses a dilemma for governments attempting to increase food production and minimise rising prices. Through the use of a simple macro-model these relationships are discussed and the policy insights they offer. Impact of price receives special attention because of its frequent use as a policy instrument.     

Fertiliser availability in a resource-limited world: Production and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus

Without the input of fertiliser nitrogen it is estimated that only about half of the current global population can be supplied with sufficient food energy and protein. The anticipated increase in the population to 2050 will increase the dependency on fertiliser inputs. The paper examines the different potential sources of energy and hydrogen required for this essential fixation of atmospheric nitrogen into plant-available nitrogenous fertiliser and concludes that methane from natural gas is clearly the most suitable source. In the absence of a cost-effective alternative source of hydrogen it is recommended that an on-going requirement for methane is acknowledged and that consideration be given to strategic reserves for the production of food. Phosphorus is also an essential and unsubstitutable nutrient for plants and animals, but while the global reserves of atmospheric nitrogen are effectively unlimited, the reserves of phosphate rock are finite. Recent estimates of the reserve suggest that at the current rate of use this resource will become exhausted within some hundreds of years. The annual increment of phosphorus contained in the human population is estimated to be in the order of 1 Mt/yr, which is a small proportion of the quantity mined. There is a clear requirement to ensure that phosphorus is recycled to a large extent, so that the rate of exhaustion of the reserves of phosphate rock is significantly reduced. Legislation relating to the management of phosphorus appears entirely associated with its potential to upset natural ecosystems, with apparently no regulations yet requiring the efficient use and reuse of a scarce resource.     

Food demand studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: a survey of empirical evidence

The recent empirical food demand studies on Sub-Saharan Africa show significant advances in demand specification and methodology, especially in the application of less restrictive and theoretically consistent flexible functional forms. The findings to date establish some broad patterns on effect of income, household demography and life cycle, location, and prices on food demand patterns. However, the numerical values of the demand estimates are less generalizable because of an insufficient number of data points to separate the true demand component from other confounding factors, which are linked to differences in modeling and estimation of demand relations. The priority for future research is to generate sufficiently detailed demand estimates that have a high utility for disaggregated policy analysis, but are based on a theoretically consistent and comparable methodology.     

Pricing in revenue management for multiple firms competing for customers

We consider the pricing strategies of multiple firms providing the same service in competition for a common pool of customers in a revenue management context. The firms have finite capacity and the demand at each firm depends on the selling prices charged by all firms, each of which satisfies demand up to a given capacity limit. We use game theory to analyze the systems when firms face either a deterministic demand or a general stochastic demand. The existence and uniqueness conditions of a Nash equilibrium are derived, and we calculate the explicit Nash equilibrium point when the demand at each firm is a linear function of price. We also conduct sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium prices with respect to cost and capacity parameters.     

The future labour market for R&D Manpower in The Netherlands

An adequate supply of qualified research and development (R&D) personnel is an important precondition for a government policy that aims for a strongly knowledge-intensive economic growth. As in many other OECD countries, there is great concern in The Netherlands about meeting this crucial condition in the next decades. This article tries to show to what extent this current concern is justified. For that purpose, forecasts of future supply and demand for research manpower in the science and engineering fields (including agriculture and health) have been produced, extending to the year 2010. Sensitivity analyses show that the fore-casts are not very sensitive to alternative assumptions on economic growth, investments, replacement demand and labour supply.
From a methodological point of view the forecasting approach differs from the more traditional manpower forecasting. Firstly, the demand for R&D personnel is split up into an increase in total employment for R&D manpower ( expansion demand ) on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the need for replacements for researchers who retire, die or switch to other occupations ( replacement demand ). Expansion and replacement demand are considered in three sectors of R&D work: universities, research institutes and private enterprises. Expansion demand and replacement demand together determine the job openings for newcomers. These job openings are confronted with the supply of new R&D manpower, which is largely determined by the output of the educational system. The confrontation of demand and supply forecasts shows that, in general, severe shortages of R & D manpower will result if there are not adequate manpower policy adjustment. The article closes with a discussion of the policy implications of the expected disequilibria in the market for R & D manpower.     

Supply network capacity planning for semiconductor manufacturing with uncertain demand and correlation in demand considerations

A semiconductor supply network involves many expensive steps, which have to be executed to serve global markets. The complexity of global capacity planning combined with the large capital expenditures to increase factory capacity makes it important to incorporate optimization methodologies for cost reduction and long-term planning. The typical view of a semiconductor supply network consists of layers for wafer fab, sort, assembly, test and demand centers. We present a two-stage stochastic integer-programming formulation to model a semiconductor supply network. The model makes strategic capacity decisions, (i.e., build factories or outsource) while accounting for the uncertainties in demand for multiple products. We use the model not only to analyze how variability in demand affects the make/buy decisions but also to investigate how the correlation between demands of different products affects these strategic decisions. Finally, we demonstrate the value of incorporating demand uncertainty into a decision-making scheme.     

融资需求、盈余管理与公司资本配置效率

本文以我国 2011~2015 年的 A 股上市公司为考察对象,实证检验了融资需求与盈余管理的关系,及在融资需求驱动下,不同盈余管理方式对资本配置效率的影响。研究发现：融资需求与盈余管理呈显著正相关,即企业融资需求越强烈,发生盈余管理活动的可能性越大,盈余管理程度也越高;盈余管理行为会影响会计信息质量,提高信息不对称程度,进而容易引发非效率投资问题,但盈余管理并不总是会降低资本投资效率,基于融资需求的盈余管理对缓解非效率投资有一定的积极作用。     

Demand chain alignment competence — delivering value through product life cycle management

This paper endorses demand chain alignment as a competence that supports effective product life cycle (PLC) management. Demand chain alignment integrates the demand creation (historic domain of marketing) and demand fulfilment processes (domain of supply chain management), to develop and to deliver products that convey superior customer value while deploying resources efficiently. So far, the relationship between demand chain alignment and PLC management has only been addressed from an operations and demand/supply chain perspective, but not from a marketing perspective. Three research propositions, on the relationship between both concepts, are derived from a literature review and applied to a case study from a global player in the tobacco industry. The findings do not support the current view that the product life cycle is a market-oriented classification variable for demand chain strategies. Instead, demand chain alignment needs to link customer needs-based segments with the supply chain. Moreover, PLC management and demand chain alignment have a mutually reinforcing relationship, in which PLC management can facilitate the competence development, ensures a dynamic perspective and, at the same time, benefits from aligned demand creation and fulfilment processes. Based on the findings, a model integrating demand chain alignment and PLC management is proposed.     

Anforderungen an den konventionellen Kraftwerkspark – wieviel und welche Kraftwerkskapazit?t wird ben?tigt?

The electricity supply system will, particularly in Germany, significantly be determined by the use of renewable energy sources. A?decreasing energetic utilization along with an increasing flexibility demand lead to chancing requirements for the conventional plant fleet. The question arises to what extent conventional generation capacity is needed in the future and if??compared to today??additional technical requirements have to be fulfilled due to the increased flexibility demand. Furthermore it has to be discussed how a required capacity level can be achieved and if??and under which conditions??today??s market design is sufficient or if additional capacity mechanism are necessary. These questions are discussed in this article. The questions as to the required capacity level and the means to achieve it depend on the perspective, which is chosen with respect to security of supply. Choosing a European perspective, i.e. a common responsibility for an appropriate level of security of supply in Europe, additional capacity mechanism are not necessary. Choosing a national perspective, i.e. requiring that national demand can??theoretically??be covered by capacity available in the particular country, does not only significantly increase the necessary amount of generation capacity but also??due to the fact that the electricity market already today is organized on a European rather than a national basis??requires additional capacity mechanisms to cover capacity demand. With respect to the flexibility demand a concerted as well as coordinated acting of the different independent market players is necessary to cover a more volatile residual load. However, there is no additional demand for technical flexibility.     

Demand for dairy products in the EU

In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.     

Multiproduct Price Regulation Under Asymmetric Information

We discuss the regulation of a multiproduct monopolist when the firm has private information about cost or demand conditions. The regulator offers the firm a set of prices from which to choose. When there is private information only about costs, the firm should always have a degree of discretion over its pricing policy. When uncertainty concerns demand, whether discretion is desirable depends on how demand elasticities vary with the scale of demands. If a positive demand shock is associated with a reduction in the market elasticity, discretion is good for overall welfare; otherwise it is not.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

Residual demand estimation for market delineation: Complications and limitations

To shed some light on market delineation in an antitrust context, many economists are turning to estimates of residual demand elasticities. Recent papers have drawn attention to the importance of demand curve in market delineation and explained how they can be estimated. This paper shows that there are many complications and limitations of the approach. The relationship between the residual demand elasticity and the scope of the relevant market is complicated and depends on behavioral assumptions. The residual demand elasticity that can be estimated is not the one on which market delineation turns. The estimation of residual demand elasticities can be very difficult because of the complex dynamics of consumer behavior. Finally, residual demand estimators are likely to have a high variance because of instrument problems and this is likely to lead to widely varying estimates depending on specification choices.     

Inventory management in a multi-echelon spare parts supply chain

In many industrial sectors, firms are dealing with a demand which is more and more uncertain often due to the supply chain structure. One of the most critical effects of demand uncertainty is the simultaneous increase of inventories and decrease of customer service. This work describes an integrated system for managing inventories in a multi-echelon spare parts supply chain, in which customers of different size lay at the same level of the supply chain. The differences in size generate demand peaks and thus a very variable and lumpy demand pattern. The analysis presented in the paper stems from a case study in the field of durable goods spare parts. The paper contributes in three ways: on the one hand, it shows that consistency between managerial solutions and supply chain structure enables to enhance operative performances. On the other hand, it provides a new solution to a problem that characterises several different industrial contexts. Eventually, it highlights that the exploitation of a larger and more reliable set of information dramatically improves performance.     

当前国内外油气行业发展形势及展望

2012年上半年,石油需求低迷,供应充足,库存高企,供需从2011年同期的偏紧转为宽松;国际油价波动较大,一季度升至2008年金融危机后的最高水平,二季度大幅回落.天然气市场需求和产量小幅增长,供需保持平衡;北美、欧洲、亚太三大天然气区域市场价差扩大.全球油气并购活动持续低迷,北美非常规气并购市场迅速降温.国际大石油公司生产经营指标下滑.中国石油需求增速大幅回落,对外依存度再创新高;成品油价格前升后降,石油石化行业效益持续下滑;天然气消费快速增长,进口量大幅上升,进口气价倒挂严重.下半年,预期世界经济依然疲软.石油供需仍将宽松,油价略有回升,但将低于去年同期水平;天然气供需继续平衡,三大市场价差仍将维持.中国经济企稳,国内成品油需求有望平稳增长,但涨幅低于预期;天然气将保持消费量与产量、进口量齐增的态势.     

Consolidating distribution centers can reduce lost sales

In many industries, products are sold out of inventory. When inventory shortages are possible, expected product sales will fall short of expected product demand. We find that this shortfall is proportional to the standard deviation of demand. As we show, this implies that consolidating retailer units – which leads to a lower standard deviation for the aggregate demand – can increase sales.     

Stochastic market sharing, partial communication and collusion

This paper analyzes the role of communication between firms in an infinitely repeated Bertrand game in which firms receive private signals of a common value i.i.d. demand shock. It is shown that firms can use stochastic, inter-temporal market sharing as a substitute for communication in low demand states. Partial communication in high demand states is sufficient to achieve the most collusive, full communication outcome and strictly dominates partial communication in low demand states. Communication in high demand states allows firms to coordinate their pricing, choose the most efficient uninformed price and avoid price wars. I demonstrate that under some conditions consumers are better off with communication among colluding firms.     

Consumers' quality choices during demand peaks

In a number of product categories, average prices decrease when demand exogenously increases. The literature disagrees on whether this effect is due to firms' reactions to high demand or to changes in consumer behavior. I propose a strategy that enables the identification of supply and demand movements by examining unpredictable and short-lived exogenous demand shocks. During these periods, firms do not have time to adjust pricing or advertising strategies, and most activity comes from changes in consumer behavior. My model shows that during periods of exogenous high demand, consumers migrate toward cheaper, lower-quality products. I focus on ice cream purchases, which have a seasonal peak during the summer and increase during less-predictable periods of unseasonably high temperatures. Using individual-level data, I test model implications and estimate structural parameters, finding evidence consistent with consumers' quality shifts. I also reject alternative supply-side theories' explanations for the main drivers of the observed price dynamics.     

The new political economy of food and agricultural development

This paper emphasizes the benefits of an agricultural strategy of development in developing countries. It begins by analyzing the close links between food and employment in the development process. In an underdeveloped country, food production is minimal, but demand is as well because of the small population growth. After development begins, income rises and food demand outstrips production. Only at later stages of development can food production meet demand. The middle stage of development describes most developing countries, which have averaged annual growth rates of 3% per capita in 1966-80. The growth in food demand must be met through technological advance in agriculture: high-yield seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, which, for example, helped India increase cereal yields 29% between 1954-55 and 1964-65. The rate of growth in cropped areas has declined between 1961-1980, making increased yields more necessary. Growth in employment and income leads to higher food demand, which leads to higher prices and labor costs and a tendency towards capital-intensive agriculture. As the rural sector becomes wealthier, there is also more opportunity for non-agricultural rural workers, creating still more demand. In the final development stage, agricultural products can generate foreign exchange. In Asia, the priority is to ensure efficient outcomes of capital allocations, while in Africa, technology must be instituted. Public investment has been shown to be essential to rapid development in Japan, Taiwan, and the Punjab of India. The absence of this investment in Africa, partly because of an overemphasis on urban sector investment, is largely responsible for the backward state of African agriculture. Often rural areas are overtaxed, agricultural experts are lacking, and there is a growing presence of urban bureaucrats. Both experts in the donor community and farmers themselves must become more vocal in demanding investment in the agricultural sector.