非参数成本前沿模型与中国工业增长模式研究

本文创建了面板数据下的非参数成本前沿模型框架，对转轨期间中国大中型工业的成本变化进行分解与分析。研究发现经济全球化、FDI、产权变革和有序竞争促进中国工业的前沿技术进步和资源配置效率提高，推动中国工业增长由粗放型向集约型转变。同时，行业间日益加大的技术效率差距已经对增长模式转变构成挑战。     

进口贸易与中国经济增长互动关系探析

进口贸易在国民经济增长中的作用尚未引起到人们的高度重视。近年来,随着国际经济环境的变化和中国经济的发展,人们开始重新审视进口贸易对经济增长的作用。进口贸易促进经济增长,最显著的传导机制是通过提高全要素生产率促进经济增长。目前中国需要调整贸易战略、重视进口贸易在经济增长中的作用,并优化进口贸易结构,在适度保护的基础上通过开展进口贸易促进经济增长。     

对发展高新技术产品出口的几点思考

20世纪末期,世界进入了知识经济时代,日益发达的信息技术带动了高新技术产业的发展,将世界推向了一个新发展阶段。发展高新技术产业,带动经济技术快速增长已成为全球经济发展的趋势与潮流。高新技术产品出口对国民经济的发展,特别是对产业结构的调整将起重要的作用。     

Export-led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence From LDCs

This paper conducts tests of the export-led growth and the import-compression hypotheses for four less developed countries (LDCs) – India, Nigeria, Fiji and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Based on Johansen's multiple cointegration test preceded by unit root tests, we test for cointegration between real output, exports and imports. Non-rejection of cointegration between the variables excludes the possibility of Granger non-causality and suggests at least one way Granger causality. Real output, exports and imports are found to be cointegrated in two of the countries and the resulting error-correction models suggest that Granger causality runs from exports and imports to real output in these cases. Exogeneity tests are conducted for exports with respect to real output. However, while the assumption of weak exogeneity is validated in two of the countries, the null hypothesis of super exogeneity is rejected. The test results therefore cast doubts on policy recommendations for the LDCs based on the export-led growth hypothesis.     

进出口总额与GDP增长的联动关系——基于1978-2007年数据的分析

本文在总结既有的有关进出口贸易拉动GDP增长的研究成果基础上,运用HP滤波、相关系数矩阵及协整分析,进一步研究了进出口总额(E+M)和GDP增长的关系。得出如下结论:在研究进出口贸易与GDP增长二者关系时,运用进出口总额(E+M)序列比使用进口额(M)、出口额(E)或进出口差额(E-M)序列更能真实反映进出口贸易对GDP增长的拉动作用。     

正确认识进口贸易对经济增长的作用

中国加入WTO后，随着关税削减和非关税壁垒的取消，进口需求得以释放，进口将有大的增加。必须重视进口贸易的促进作用，作出适当的应对。     

东北建设成为对外开放新前沿的现实基础与路径选择

进入经济新常态以来,东北地区经济下行压力持续增加,体制机制改革滞后、结构性矛盾等问题加速凸显,急需进一步通过深化开放,为发展注入新动能,以开放促改革、促发展。随着东北亚深度合作的外部环境遇暖,"一带一路"建设不断取得新突破,正推动东北地区成为向北开放的主阵地,为东北全面振兴持续注入发展新动能。为推动东北地区打造对外开放新前沿,应率先推动开放型经济体制机制创新,创新自由贸易试验区建设与发展模式,着力建设面向东北亚的跨境大通道,积极探索东北亚区域合作新模式,以特殊政策推动沿边开发开放。     

中国进出口商品结构与经济增长关系的实证研究

出口商品结构与经济增长之间有较强的关系,进口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系不是很明显.进一步研究发现,进口商品结构与经济增长之闻不存在因果关系,工业制成品进口的增加并没有带动我国GDP的增长.同时GDP的增长也没有促进进口商品结构的优化;出口商品结构与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,出口商品结构的变化是GDP增长的原因,但是GDP的增长不是出口商品结构变化的原因,出口商品结构每提升一个百分点,经济增长将上升0.38%.因此,为了更好地促进中国经济的发展,应该进一步优化进出口商品结构,提高进出口对经济增长的带动作用.     

农业技术引进对我国农业经济增长和农民增收的贡献研究

在论证技术引进对我国农业经济增长和农民增收的贡献的基础上,分析了我国当前农业技术引进存在的问题对其贡献发挥的制约,指出应通过建立多元化的投资体系、加强技术"引进后"工作、拓宽信息渠道以及引进先进管理机制等途径,增强技术引进对农业经济增长和农民增收的贡献力。     

Research on Macro Quality Evaluation to Import and Export Cargoes

Based on the quality inspection data of the import and the export cargos, the general quality evaluation index and quality index are built according to the percent of defective. Macro quality of the import and the export cargoes are discussed in theory.     

Output Growth Decomposition in the Presence of Input Quality Effects: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

How do physical capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) individually add to economic growth? We approach this question from the perspective of the quality of physical capital and labor, namely the age of physical capital and human capital. We build a unique dataset by explicitly calculating the age of physical capital for each country and each year of our time frame and estimate a stochastic frontier production function incorporating input quality in five regions of countries (Africa, East Asia, Latin America, South Asia and West). Physical capital accumulation generally proves much more important than either the improved quality of factors or TFP growth in explaining output growth. The age of capital decreases growth in all regions except in Africa, while human capital increases growth in all regions except in East Asia.     

Import competition and firm refocusing

Abstract Recent theoretical work predicts a new margin of firm adjustment to trade liberalization; that is, multi‐product firms alter their product mix to focus on their core competencies in response to trade liberalization. Using detailed product data from U.S. public firms, I find strong empirical support for this prediction. Specifically, import competition leads multi‐product firms to drop peripheral products to refocus on core production. The weaker the linkages that a peripheral product shares with the core (as measured by the extent of joint sales, joint procurement, joint production, and joint sectorship), the more likely the peripheral product is to be divested in response to import competition.     

进口自由化与企业利润率

本文研究了最终品进口自由化对本国纯内销企业利润率的影响。短期均衡时,最终品进口自由化使得更多外国企业向本国市场出口,加剧了本国产品市场的竞争,降低了本国纯内销企业的利润率。而在长期,由于企业能够充分进入和退出市场,一部分本国企业会退出市场,均衡时留下来的企业利润率升高。本文首先通过理论模型解释了上述现象,随后利用我国2000—2007年规模以上制造业企业层面的面板数据进行了实证检验,验证了进口自由化对企业利润率影响的渠道。实证结果发现,中间品关税下降会对本国纯内销企业的利润率产生正向影响。最后,理论模型和实证结果还证明了,其他条件相同时,企业的生产率越高,其利润率越高。     

Import Quotas and Entry Deterrence

Using a simple version of the Milgrom and Roberts entry deterrence model, it is shown that adjusting a quota so that a greater volume of imports is allowed, can facilitate entry into the domestic industry. That is, the easing of a quota, can cause the domestic incumbent to shift from deterring entry to accommodating entry.     

Frontier Expansion and Economic Development

Although finding new frontiers or reserves of natural resources to exploit has been the basis of much of global economic development for the past 500 years, frontier-based development does not appear to be producing sustained high rates of growth in today's poorer economies. Through a two-sector model of frontier expansion and economic growth in a resource-dependent small open economy, this article demonstrates that such expansion will lead inevitably to a boom and bust pattern of long-run development, even if the economy's terms of trade or commodity prices remain unchanged. Initially, it is always optimal for the economy to choose the maximum rate of frontier expansion and thus ensure an immediate economic boom. However, an eventual economic decline is unavoidable. This result provides an alternative explanation of recent empirical evidence that resource-abundant developing countries display lower than expected long-run rates of growth. (JEL O13 , O41 , Q32 , Q33 )     

实施调结构促增长的新型战略

世界经济正在逐步走出衰退,中国经济向好趋稳,但结构调整压力加大,重工业产能过剩问题突出,股市和房市泡沫凸显,通胀风险升高。我国经济面临新的机遇与挑战。目前政府经济工作的重点,是调结构促增长,加大力度推进结构调整,保持经济平稳较快增长,提高应对通胀预期与压力的能力。根据国内外市场的变化,优化刺激内需的政策,促进投资、消费、净出口三大动力协调发挥作用,实施创新型经济、绿色增长战略。     

对新增长理论的改进与发展

在索洛的新古典增长理论中，技术进步是作为外生变量，其缺陷是没有正确反映经济增长和技术进步二者之间的内在联系。以罗默的“研发模型”和卢卡斯的“人力资本模型”为代表的新增长理论，则克服了这一缺点，把技术进步和人力资本积累看作为内生为量，然而新增长理论不足之处是它把储蓄率和人口增长率当作外生为量，本文在分析经济增长和储蓄率、人口增长率之间的内在变化规律基础上，把储蓄率和人口增长率当作内生变量，并分析经济增长遥变化规律。