Will that be cash or credit? Payment preferences and rising VAT in Argentina

This article studies how Argentina’s value-added tax (VAT) revenue has risen to historic highs since its 2001 sovereign default and continues to grow despite unchanged VAT rates, slow economic growth, stagnant household consumption, and low commodity prices after 2010. In 2015, VAT revenue accounted for one-quarter of all tax revenue in Argentina. We show that Argentina’s banked population went from less than 41.6% in 2003 to 89.6% in 2016. Consequently, there was significant growth in electronic payments via credit cards and debit cards. Using time series regression, the authors show that the rising banked population and card growth is correlated with VAT-to-GDP increases from 2002 to 2015. The authors posit that one reason for these correlations is that some consumption is shifting from informal (harder to tax) markets to formal (easier to tax markets) as cash use declined and card use grew. Also, rising electronic payments likely explains improved VAT compliance as well—the Argentine VAT noncompliance rate averaged 36.4% between 2000 and 2005 but improved to 20.5% between 2006 and 2010 (Trigueros, Longinotti, & Vecorena, 2013).     

Overqualification: permanent or transitory?

This article analyses job mismatches in Switzerland based on a subjective measure of overqualification. According to job search and job matching theories, overqualification is a transitory problem. Other theories show that overqualification can also be of a permanent nature. We test the perpetuity of overeducation using panel data from the first eight waves of the Swiss Household Panel (SHP) covering the period 1999 to 2006. Our empirical analysis reveals little evidence for lasting rigidities that would cause permanent job mismatches. Rather, spells of overqualification are relatively short: about half of all individuals who were overqualified in a given year had an adequate job match 1 year later. While a short duration of overqualification would be consistent with job search and job matching theories, our observation that the probability of a job mismatch does not significantly decrease with experience is at odds with these theories. Our article provides an alternative explanation for this phenomenon: the constant accumulation of experience and qualifications throughout a worker's career implies that, for a good job match to be maintained, qualification-specific job requirements must increase as the worker ages. If this does not occur, even older workers face a risk of becoming overqualified.     

The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?

This paper examines the relationship between the output levels in the mining sector and various non‐mining sectors in an attempt to understand the role of the mining sector in Australia. The unobserved components time series model is used to estimate the effects of the output gap and the growth regime in the mining sector on the output level of each of several non‐mining sectors. Overall, the estimates obtained do not suggest an overwhelmingly positive effect running from the mining sector to other production and services sectors, implying that the trickle‐down effect of the mining boom may be a myth.     

Inflation-targeting rules: History-dependent or forward-looking?

This note discusses the inflation-targeting strategy if price setting gives rise to a hybrid Phillips curve. The strategy is inverted relative to private sector pricing behavior: if private sector price setting is backward-looking, policy should be forward-looking, and vice versa.     

Effect of cultural distance on reverse technology spillover from outward FDI: a bane or a boon?

This article aims to investigate the role of cultural distance in the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and reverse technology spillover. Chinese firm-level data have been used to examine whether the cultural distance between domestic and host countries is a bane or a boon to innovation when firms engage in OFDI for technology acquisition. Generally, businesses with similar cultural backgrounds have an easier time-making technological progress. However, this research revealed a deeper level of reverse technological spillover among firms that invest in Europe and the USA, which are considered to quite culturally distant from China. Reverse technological spillover through OFDI is positively affected by individualism and uncertainty avoidance, which are the two dimensions of cultural distance.     

Default of Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries: Short‐term Stability versus Incentive Compatibility?

Financial integration and globalization have acted as a major stimulus in the development of large, internationally operating banks, which not only provide cross‐border services but also have a local presence. While these banks are themselves drivers of economic integration, they can pose serious threats to financial stability. Their size, interconnectedness and importance as providers of specific services mean that financial institutions can be too‐systemic‐to‐fail (TSTF). Since the entry and exit of market participants is a crucial feature of well‐functioning markets, the absence of any credible possibility of failure leads to serious distortions. This analysis gives an overview of the TSTF problem and discusses the challenges to be faced in establishing credible resolution regimes.     

Brunner and Leijonhufvud: friends or foes?

Karl Brunner and Axel Leijonhufvud constantly pointed out the prominence of imperfect information in macroeconomic analysis. This paper argues that, despite strong oppositions related to their rival schools of thought, this emphasis on informational problems led them to adopt similar views on many theoretical and methodological issues. These issues encompass the perception of the economic agent in society, the theory of price inflexibility and unemployment, the role of relative prices, the importance of signal-extraction problems and the position within the Marshall-Walras divide.     

Firm-financed training: Firm-specific or general skills?

In this article we analyse the specificity and generality of firm-financed training in Norway. Compared to most other OECD countries Norway has a compressed wage structure. According to non-competitive theories of training we should expect to find much firm-sponsored training in such an economy, and furthermore we should expect to find relatively much firm-sponsored general training. The results in this paper suggest that firm-financed training in Norway contain much general skills. We find that training paid for by previous employers has a positive effect on current wages, and the effect is at least on par with the impact on wages from training paid for by the present employer. We use two methods to control for selection bias in training; an instrument variable (IV)-approach and a fixed-effect approach. The IV-approach suggests that the original training estimate is biased downward. However, our training variable may be subject to measurement error, and recent research has shown that the IV-estimate will be biased upward when a mismeasured variable is binary (as in our case). This finding receives support when using a fixed-effect approach. The IV-estimate for training considerably exceeds the fixed-effect estimate. The fixed-effect estimate is also lower than the original OLS-estimate indicating that some selection bias in training is present.First revision received: January 2002/Final revision received: October 2003The paper is financed by grant 108728/510 from the Norwegian Research Council. The financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The author thanks Erling Barth and Hege Torp at the Institute for Social Research, Yngve Willassen at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Håkan Regnér at the Swedish Institute for Social Research, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Seminar for education and labour market in Stavern June 2000 for valuable comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are my own     

Bundled discounts: Strategic substitutes or complements?

Bundled discounts by pairs of otherwise independent firms play an increasingly important role as a strategic tool in several industries. Given that prices of firms competing for the same consumers are strategic complements, one would expect their discounts levels also to be strategic complements. However, in this paper we show that under some circumstances bundled discounts may be strategic substitutes. This occurs under vertically differentiated products where a low quality pair of producers may indeed prefer to lower its discount after an increase in the discount offered by a high quality pair of producers.     

Hysteresis in unemployment: Fact or fiction?

A stylized fact of European unemployment dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. This has led to a major reconsideration of the natural rate paradigm. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of unemployment for Germany and France. When the moving natural rate model is tested against the alternative of a unit root process, the unit root hypothesis is resoundingly rejected.     

Environmental market creation: saviour or oversell?

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to the notion of market creation for the conservation of environmental assets. Market creation establishes a market in the external benefit or cost in question (e.g. biodiversity or pollution reduction) and leaves the relevant parties to adjust their behaviour accordingly. While most attention has been paid to market creation through tradable permits and taxes (the polluter-pays), it is less easy to secure a perspective on beneficiary-pays initiatives. Both polluter-pays and beneficiary-pays initiatives are examples of modified Coaseian bargains in which governments intervene in the bargains to lower transactions costs, establish property rights, deal with public goods issues, or act on behalf of disadvantaged groups. This paper reviews four major initiatives in this respect - debt-for-nature swaps, bioprospecting and the Global Environment Facility at the global level, and the Costa Rican Forest Law at the local level. It finds that while there is much to applaud in initiatives in these new markets, serious questions remain about the modest flows of funds associated with such global bargains, and the extent to which they secure environmental improvements relative to the baseline of business-as-usual.JEL Classification: D49, D62, H41, O19, Q57, Q2I am indebted to members of the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit at Oxford University and to David Simpson of Resources for the Future and University College London for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. Any remaining mistakes are entirely my responsibility.     

An aging society: opportunity or challenge?

"This paper steps back from the current political debate [in the United States] over the social security trust fund and examines the more general question of how serious a macroeconomic problem aging is and how policy should respond to it. We focus primarily on issues relating to saving and capital accumulation. We do not consider the broader question of whether the current U.S. national saving rate is too high or too low, but focus on the effect of demographic changes on the optimal level of national saving. In addition, we consider the effects of demographic change on productivity growth and the optimal timing of tax collections. Our general conclusion is that demographic changes will improve American standards of living in the near future, but lower them slightly over the very long term. Other things being equal, the optimal policy response to recent and anticipated demographic changes is almost certainly a reduction rather than an increase in the national saving rate."     

Innovation and imitation: substitutes or complements?

Most of the research on imitation and innovation has focused on developed countries and examined whether imitation promotes or hinders innovation at the macro, industry and intra firm level, and the effect that this has on economic growth. Less research has been conducted about the dynamics that exist between innovation and imitation at the plant-level in developing countries, and the effect that trade policy has on this relationship. This article uses plant-level data from Mexico to analyse the dynamic relationship that exists between innovation and imitation at the microeconomic level. The empirical results suggest that in the context of a developing country, innovation and imitation complement each other and trade policy has no effect on this relationship.     

Tobacco and alcohol: complements or substitutes?

The question of whether alcohol and tobacco are consumed as complements or substitutes is crucial for determining the side-effects of anti-smoking policies. Numerous papers have empirically addressed this issue by estimating demand systems for alcohol and tobacco, and subsequently calculating cross-price effects. However, this traditional approach is often seriously hampered by insufficient price variation observed in survey data. We, therefore, suggest an alternative instrumental variables approach that statistically mimics an experimental study and does not rely on prices as explanatory variables. This approach is applied by means of German survey data. Our estimation results suggest that a reduction in tobacco consumption results in a moderate reduction in alcohol consumption. It is demonstrated that this implies that alcohol and tobacco are complements. Hence, we conclude that successful anti-smoking policies will not result in the unintended side-effect of an increased (ab)use of alcohol.