Declining Discount Rates: The Long and the Short of it

The last few years have witnessed important advances in our understanding of time preference and social discounting. In particular, several rationales for the use of time-varying social discount rates have emerged. These rationales range from the ad hoc to the formal, with some founded solely in economic theory while others reflect principles of intergenerational equity. While these advances are to be applauded, the practitioner is left with a confusing array of rationales and the sense that almost any discount rate can be justified. This paper draws together these different strands and provides a critical review of past and present contributions to this literature. In addition to this we highlight some of the problems with employing DDRs in the decision-making process, the most pressing of which may be time inconsistency. We clarify their practical implications, and potential pitfalls, of the more credible rationales and argue that some approaches popular in environmental economics literature are ill-conceived. Finally, we illustrate the impact of different approaches by examining global warming and nuclear power investment. This includes an application and extension of Newell and Pizer [‘Discounting the benefits of climate change mitigation : how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?’ Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 46 (2003) 52] to UK interest rate data.     

Sustainability,Social Discount Rates and the Selection of Project Procurement Method

The notion of sustainability has lead to the evaluation of public projects in terms of wider socio-economic and environmental benefits. The Cost Benefit Analysis and its respective, Social Discount Rate (SDR), is of crucial importance, especially when the advantages of private financing are to be demonstrated in comparison with the alternative traditional procurement of works and services. The SDR seen as a measure of a country’s value of future costs and benefits is related to the notion of promoted sustainability. The impact of smaller and declining SDRs on project selection is investigated, and a conceptual formulation concerning the selection of the project procurement method is presented. The modelled formulation will assist central and local governments in assessing projects and the potential benefit of private financing.     

城市化进程中遏制贫富两极分化的思考与对策

本文从城市发展视角研究贫富两极分化加剧的问题.从理论上揭示了城市发展中贫富两极分化的根源与主导力量.指出城市化进程对贫富分化问题的现实影响是缩小地区和城乡差距的同时,又不合理地放大了贫富两极分化.借鉴德国与东亚国家和地区的城市发展经验,提出了对城市发展模式战略转型,遏制贫富两极分化加剧的一系列对策建议.     

我国各地区内部贫富分化影响因素分析

本文利用stata软件对2005年1%全国人口调查数据中的居民月收入变量进行计算,结果表明,我国几乎所有省(区)的基尼系数都接近或超过了0.4的收入分配贫富差距的国际警戒线,贫富分化程度已经十分严重.为分析其影响因素,挑选相关指标构建回归方程进行分析.因变量为各省的基尼系数,自变量分为人口发展类、经济发展类、社会发展类三大类13个变量.结果表明,市场化、私有化的程度越高的地区,基尼系数越高,贫富分化越严重.而经济社会发展水平的提高有利于通过中间变量来缓解这种贫富分化.     

当前贫富差距的五大成因及治理对策

我国当前贫富差距的成因主要表现在生产方式的差别、区位优势的差异、发展战略的失误、历史禀赋的悬殊以及转轨过程的失范五个方面。为有效解决这一问题,需要坚持按劳分配与按生产要素分配相结合的制度,鼓励勤劳致富,培育中产阶层;坚持机会均等、起点公平的分配政策,打破由等级、身份造成的垄断;放弃盲目赶超战略,实施比较优势战略、就业优先战略、可持续发展战略;解决二元经济结构问题;搭建法治平台,推进政治文明建设,严惩权力寻租。     

金融发展对贫富分化抑制作用的研究

文章以市场经济最基本的活动——交换为逻辑起点,分析了实物资本天然具有贫富分化的属性,指出这种属性根源于市场经济的互利交换本质且受制于资本的种类和规模。资本的货币化能够使单个资本在一定程度上超越种类和规模的限制,特别是金融发展将进一步促进这种超越,从而有助于抑制贫富分化。     

大国效应、交易成本和经济结构——国家贫富的一般均衡分析

人口规模和国土面积是大国两个最主要的自然特征,从这两个自然特征出发可推导出大国效应是否存在及其存在的条件。通常,土地面积与国家人均收入有正向关系,而人口规模与国家之间的收入差距呈倒U型关系。在土地面积和其它条件给定的情况下,若一国人口规模适度偏大,该国人均收入将会高于小国;但是,若该国人口规模超出一定限度,该大国会因拥挤而丧失其优势。进一步的研究表明,市场交易成本、经济结构差异和国家之间的开放程度都有可能显著地减弱和逆转大国效应。可见,大国效应的形成需要一定条件,国家规模与贫富差距并非简单的线性关系。     

中印两国贫富差距比较研究

中国、印度这两个发展中国家,经济改革都取得了令世人瞩目的成就,但在经济增长的同时,社会结构也发生了变化,都面临着贫富差距扩大的问题。对比中印两国贫富差距的异同,参考印度的情况,对于有效治理中国的贫富差距问题,有重要的借鉴价值。     

On the Value of Life in Rich and Poor Countries and Distributional Weights Beyond Utilitarianism

This paper discusses the use ofdistributional weights in CBA based on a generalBergson-Samuelson SWF. In particular it illustratessome consequences of applying a SWF characterized byconstant inequality aversion (which includes classicalutilitarianism as a special case), together with aconstant relative risk aversion utility function, whencalculating the damage costs of global warming. Itextends and clarifies earlier unintuitive results, andemphasizes that utility must be seen as fully cardinalin terms of levels in this context. In the specialcase of utilitarianism, on the other hand, it issufficient to be able to make interpersonalcomparisons of utility changes.     

从利润率平均化理论看当前的贫富差距

平均利润率理论是马克思主义政治经济学的重要理论之一,也是市场经济的普遍规律.利润率的平均化,在一定程度上,对实现社会公平会起到积极作用.我国经济转型时期,行业间利润率的极大差距对社会分配公平公正产生重要影响,成为产生贫富差距的一个重要原因.要促进社会公平和缩小收入差距,必须努力完善市场经济体制,推进利润率的平均化.     

“富人社区效应”还是巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应?——一个基于外生收入的实际汇率理论

作为对国际价格水平差异的标准解释,巴拉萨—萨缪尔森(BS)效应依赖于国内劳动力同质假设和跨部门工资套利行为。本文提出了一个与之相对的"富人社区效应",可以在一国劳动力异质的条件下解释为什么富国的非贸易品价格较高。其直观解释是,如果一个国家拥有一个"富有居民"群体(比如高生产率的贸易品部门劳动者,或者全球贸易资源的所有者),而这个群体通过国际市场获得的硬通货总收入相对于该国总人口而言较高的话,其需求将抬高该国非贸易品价格。本文进而指出,关于BS效应的实证文献所广泛采用的两种基本统计检验,实际上无法区分BS效应与富人社区效应,这就对该领域相当一部分实证文献的正确性提出了质疑。此外,富人社区效应也有别于林德效应。     

Deficits for the Rich: Inequality and Instability

Abstract

Deficit spending has long been understood as a stabilizing counter-cyclical force. The thesis presented herein is that over recent decades, the cumulative deficits of government and non-corporate entities have expanded the inequality of wealth and income, which, over the long haul, contributes to slow growth and potential instability. The thesis builds on the Kaleckian-Minsky insight that deficits create gross profits in excess of new investment expenditures (free cash). Since the 1980s, this free cash has been spilled in the stock market through mergers, dividends and stock buybacks—worsening inequality. As the upper classes have a larger range of discretionary spending options, this expanded inequality has made for more spending volatility and speculative endeavors. The authors call for expanded taxes on the rich to claim the deficit-generated free cash. Such taxes would be in the service of more stability and equity.     

Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation

The paper examines a long–run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross–country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa–Samuelson "productivity hypotheisis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods.     

The Beta as a Model for the Distribution of Earnings

Existing functional forms commonly used to represent the earnings distribution have weak micro‐foundations and relatively poor empirical goodness‐of‐fit. This paper presents an optimizing model of firm behaviour, which predicts the earnings distribution to follow the beta distribution of the second kind, a distribution known to provide a superior fit to empirical data.     

Electric Utility Restructuring,Regulation of Distribution Utilities,and the Fallacy of "Avoided Cost" Rules

We show that commonly used "avoided cost" rules, which evaluate investment alternatives by comparing their costs to forecasts of future expected cost, are fundamentally flawed for choosing local area investments in distribution capacity. Use of avoided cost rules: 1) confuses cost-effectiveness tests with benefit-cost tests; 2) makes inappropriate marginal comparisons and violates necessary optimality conditions because of the "lumpy" nature of many distribution system investments; 3) fails to incorporate the effects of uncertainty properly; 4) necessarily leads to excess deferral or traditional distribution capacity investments with distributed generation and DSM investments; and 5) does not lead to lowest expected cost investment plans. We conclude by outlining a more appropriate approach to evaluating distribution investments based on evaluations of actual cash flows associated with investment alternatives under uncertainty.     

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach

Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to biodiversity and the functions of ecosystems. The stress on biodiversity is far beyond the levels imposed by the natural global climatic changes occurring in the recent evolutionary past. It includes temperature increases, shifts of climate zones, melting of snow and ice, sea level rise, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. Natural systems are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socio-economic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyses observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses. The latter can be divided into mitigation and adaptation measures. Both strategies are needed, mitigation in order to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and adaptation in order to adjust to changes that have already occurred or cannot be avoided. One mitigation option, increased biofuel production, which is also a response to oil depletion, would change land use patterns and increase human appropriation of net primary production of biomass, thereby threatening biodiversity. By considering the first order and second order impacts of climate change on biodiversity when developing policy measures, it will be possible to integrate ecosystem and biodiversity protection into decision-making processes.     

我国中小上市公司规模及成长率密度分布研究

文章以82家中小上市公司为实证样本,通过相关统计分析发现,我国中小上市公司标准化规模服从正态分布,且具有相对稳定性;中小上市公司标准化规模逐年递增,而成长率轻微递减,且都具有过原点性;中小上市公司成长率服从拉普拉斯分布;而且中小上市公司的成长性具有较强的行业特色.这些结果表明我国中小上市公司的整体发展比较健康,但要特别注意所出现的衰退迹象.