The multiplier-effect of income and consumption taxes

Zusammenfassung Der Multiplikatoreffekt der Einkommen- und Verbrauchsteuern. — Die Abhandlung stellt die Wirkungen auf gew?hnliche finanzpolitische Multiplikatoren bei Aufgliederung der Volkswirtschaft in Sektoren, bei Annahme variabler Faktorpreise und unterschiedlicher marginaler Konsumneigungen von Lohnbeziehern und Empf?ngern von Residualeinkommen sowie bei Erhebung nichtproportionaler Steuern dar. Es wird gezeigt, da\ die Elemente der regelm?\igen Multiplikatoren bei Variierung dieser Annahmen durch gewogene Durchschnitte der gleichen Elemente ersetzt werden. Diese Werte sind manchmal marginale und manchmal Durchschnittsgewichte. Die Summe dieser Gewichte ist nicht not-wendigerweise gleich eins. Ferner implizieren die ?nderungen in den Annahmen die Verwendung gewisser Berichtigungsglieder in den Formeln. Es werden die gew?hnlichen Multiplikatoren bei ?nderungen der Einkommen- und Verbrauchsteuers?tze in Schaubildern dargestellt und einige Probleme der Multiplikatoren eines ausgeglichenen Budgets diskutiert. Zum Schlu\ werden einige Aspekte einer dynamischen Darstellung er?rtert.

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Résumé L’effet multiplicateur des imp?ts sur le revenu et la consommation. — L’article décrit les effets sur les multiplicateurs usuels de politique financière, quand on prend l’économie par secteurs, quand on suppose des prix de facteurs variables et des penchants marginaux de consommation différents pour les salariés et pour ceux qui ont un revenu restant, et pour le cas d’imp?ts non-proportionnels. Il est démontré qu’en variant ces suppositions, les éléments des multiplicateurs réguliers sont remplacés par des moyennes pondérées des mêmes éléments. Ces valeurs sont ou des poids marginaux, ou bien des poids moyens. Le total de ces poids n’égale pas nécessairement i. Si l’on change les suppositions, il faut introduire dans les formules certains ajustements. Sont donnés des diagrammes des multiplicateurs usuels sous une fluctuation des taux d’imp?t sur le revenu et la consommation, et sont étudiés certains problèmes des multiplicateurs d’un budget équilibré. Finalement, quelques aspects d’une présentation dynamique sont discutés.

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Resumen El efecto multiplicador de los impuestos sobre la renta y sobre el gasto de consumo. — El presente estudio ofrece una exposici?n de los efectos de los multiplicadores fiscales corrientes, teniendo en cuenta la división de la economía en sectores y suponiendo que los precios de los factores de producción son variables, que los asalariados tienen otra propension marginal al consumo que los receptores de ingresos residuales, y que el estado recauda impuestos no-proporcionales. Se demuestra por un lado, que los elementos de los multiplicadores corrientes quedan substitufdos por promedios ponderados de los mismos elementos, si se alteran los supuestos. Estos valores a veces son ponderaciones marginales, a veces ponderaciones por término medio. La suma de estas ponderaciones no es necesariamente igual a la unidad. Además se demuestra, que al variar los supuestos hay que variar tambien las formulas en una manera determinada. El trabajo contiene varios diagramas que expresan la cuantía de los multiplicadores corrientes al variar las tasas de los impuestos sobre la renta y sobre el consumo. Finalmente, se discuten varios problemas del multiplicador del presupuesto equilibrado, asf como algunos aspectos de una presentaci?n dinámica.

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Riassunto L’effetto del moltiplicatore delle imposte sul reddito e di quelle di consumo. — Il saggio espone gli effetti su usuali moltiplicatori politico finanziari nella suddivisione dell’economia in settori, nell’accettazione di prezzi variabili dei fattori e di differenti tendenze marginali dei consumi di salariati e beneficiari di reddito residuale come anche nella riscossione di imposte non proporzionali. Viene mostrato che gli elementi dei moltiplicatori regolari sono sostituiti, nella variazione di queste accettazioni, da medie ponderate degli stessi elementi. Questi valori a volte sono marginali e a volte pesi medi. La somma di questi pesi non è necessariamente uguale ad uno. Inoltre i mutamenti nelle accettazioni implicano l’impiego di termini di rettifica nelle formule. Gli usuali moltiplicatori sono rappresentati in grafici nei mutamenti dei tassi dell’imposta sul reddito e dell’imposta di consumo e sono discussi alcuni problemi dei moltiplicatori di un bilancio preventivo in pareggio. Alla fine sono dibattuti alcuni aspetti di una rappresentazione dinamica.

     

On the nature of deferred income taxes*

Abstract. The topic of deferred income taxes has generated considerable controversy. This paper observes that much of this controversy centers on the contingent nature of income taxes. It reviews the similarity between the firm's income tax liabilities and a European call option written on the firm's pretax value. From this perspective, deferred taxes are shown to effectively alter the exercise price of the call option held by the government, thus affecting the value of the firm's debt and equity claims. Additional results are obtained from the model by valuing the tax liabilities and the firm's financial claims via an exact option pricing formula. Finally, the paper shows that the model is robust to some of its underlying assumptions. Résumé. Les impôts sur le revenu reportés ont été l'objet d'une immense contraverse. L'auteur fait remarquer que cette controverse est en grande partie centrée sur la nature conjoncturelle des impôts sur le revenu. Il examine la similarité entre la dette fiscale de l'entreprise et une option d'achat européenne libellée sur la valeur avant impôt de l'entre-prise. Dans cette perspective, l'auteur démontre que les impôts reportés modifient effectivement le prix d'exercice de l'option d'achat détenue par le gouvernement, infiuant ainsi sur la valeur des droits à l'actif de l'entreprise. Il obtient des résultats supplémentaires du modèle en évaluant la dette fiscale et les créances financières de l'entreprise par l'intermédiaire d'une formule de détermination du prix exact de l'option. Enfin, l'auteur démontre que certaines des hypothèses sous-jacentes au modèle résistent à l'analyse.     

Export taxes and income distribution: The Philippines coconut levy

Export Taxes and Income Distribution: The Philippines Coconut Levy. — A large, empirically based general equilibrium model of the Philippine economy is used to analyze the implications of a tax on coconut oil exports. The analysis shows how general equilibrium models can be used to derive optimal tax rates and to show the detailed relationship between the rates at which these taxes are applied and their economic effects. The analysis explores in particular the effects such taxes have on economic welfare and on income distribution within the country. The distributional effects of this export tax are shown to be highly regressive, revealing more clearly the policy trade-offs such taxes involve.     

The relative variability of state income and sales taxes over the revenue cycle

The cyclical variability of state income and sales taxes is examined for each state by estimating the degree to which each tax follows the state's overall revenue cycle. Income taxes are found to be consistently more cyclically variable, and less predictable, than sales taxes. Factors explaining differences in cyclical variability across states are then identified in a regression model. States without income taxes have less cyclically variable revenues than states with both income and sales taxes, suggesting that cyclical variability in states without income taxes could not be reduced by broadening the tax base to include an income tax.     

Consumption,financial wealth and labor income in Korea

By examining the relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income in Korea, this paper presents three key findings. First, we find evidence that Korean households hold a larger proportion of their wealth in human capital instead of financial wealth, compared to households in other countries. Potentially, this finding appears consistent with Koreans’ enthusiasm for human development through education despite low government funding. Another important finding is that only financial wealth fluctuations contain a large portion of temporary components. Hence, financial wealth is mainly responsible for adjustments to restore the long-run relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income during the examined period. Third, and perhaps most interestingly, this paper finds that before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, households in Korea had difficulty smoothing their consumption over time. This finding may be at least partly attributable to households’ limited access to bank loans and their low level of financial wealth accumulation prior to the crisis. In contrast, we find little evidence that households’ consumption behavior has changed during the recent global financial crisis.     

The problems of labor supply and labor demand adjustment on the Russian labor market

This paper considers problems and specifics of labor demand and supply relations in the Russian labor market; it identifies and analyzes the underlying factors. It discusses the possibilities of inclusion in the analysis of structural characteristics of labor demand and supply and the dynamics of wages in the process of their conciliation in the Russian labor market, and it presents estimates of its basic parameters.     

Child labor, family income, and the Uruguay Round

Conclusion We are no longer limited to qualitative discussions of the merits of a social clause in the GATT against child labor. Future debates should be in quantitative terms. Child labor can contribute up to 25 percent of family income-contributions that the ILO regards as critical to their survival. Child laborers have few alternatives if they lose their jobs as a result of a social clause on labor standards. It is reasonably clear that child labor falls away quickly with economic development. However, multilateral trade agreements against child labor such as those proposed for inclusion in the WTO (and ILO) do not promote economic development. The contrary is more likely to be the case: they may reduce the range of alternatives available to children and their parents as producers, consumers, and breadwinners in developing countries.     

Economic studies of taxation in Japan: The case of personal income taxes

We argue that tax policy in Japan is on a shaky empirical ground. First, until recently, no serious attempts had been made to estimate labour responses to taxation, especially with respect to prime-age male workers. Second, while there is some stock of empirical analysis on labour supply response of female workers, few studies have appropriately allowed for the budget constraint structure implied by the tax system. Third, as a corollary, there is not a reliable stock of empirical estimates to quantify the frequently employed concepts of “disincentives to work” or “distortion.” Given this state of the literature, we introduce our estimates, and calculate the degree of distortion using the concept of the marginal cost of public funds.     

Volunteer labor supply in The Netherlands

Summary The main aim of this paper is to provide insight in the determinants of the decision to participate (yes or no) in volunteer work and the decision with regard to the number of hours spent on volunteer work. These decisions are empirically analyzed with Dutch microdata for 1982 by means of a logit and a tobit model. The results indicate that age, education, family culture and the position on the labor market in combination with sex are important determinants of volunteer labor supply.The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Comparative labor supply of black and white women

Conclusions The presence of young children decreases women’s labor supply as shown by the LFPRs for women with young children (which are always considerably lower than those for women without young children). Also, the number of young children is almost always negatively related to annual hours of labor supplied (significantly so in half the regressions). Black and white women are found to have an inelastic labor supply, but with increasing elasticity from 1969 to 1974. There is a statistically significant difference in the estimated regression coefficients of the labor supply model for black and white married women in 1969 and 1974 in both the arithmetic and logarithmic forms. The husband’s earnings are significantly negatively related to white married women’s annual hours of work in 1974, while the relationship is not significant for black married women. Crosselasticity terms show that white married women decrease their annual hours of work in response to an increase in husband’s earnings to a greater extent than black married women in 1971 and 1974. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that black women do not rely on their husband’s earnings to as great an extent as white women.     

Fertility and old-age labor supply in aging China

This paper studies the fertility and old-age labor supply decisions of Chinese households along with the relaxation of fertility control and a rise in life expectancy. We first build an overlapping-generations model, where agents make endogenous fertility and old-age labor supply decisions in the presence of fertility constraint. In our model, children serve as an alternative saving technology since they provide intra-family transfer for their old-age parents. Our analytical results suggest that the impact of rising life expectancy on fertility depends on whether children are more like consumption goods or saving vehicles. Relaxing fertility control would induce more leisure in the old age, while a rise in life expectancy would lead to more old-age labor supply. We then calibrate the model to Chinese economy and find that a rise in life expectancy would discourage fertility as intra-family transfer becomes less important. In addition, the implementation of two-children policy rather than full relaxation of fertility control, a rise in child-rearing cost, and an expansion of social security would also reduce fertility, partly offsetting the effects of relaxing one-child policy.     

我国企业年金市场的供给与需求分析

企业年金作为我国养老保险的第二支柱将发挥着越来越重要的作用.企业年金在我国发展已有十年之久,目前我国的企业年金市场已经初步形成.我国企业年金市场状态是处于垄断与竞争并存.企业年金市场和供给是充足的,而企业年金市场的需求则是不足的.解决供需矛盾要采取有力的措施,而政府发挥作用则是根本性的.     

Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China

The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth: further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment; improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization; and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40% for 2015−2030 compared to −0.60% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80% for 2015–2030 compared to 5.23% if these factors are ignored.     

是土地供应量与房地产税赋提高了房价吗

自分税制实施后,“土地财政”成为我国地方政府获取收入以支撑财政支出的主要选择,而与此同时房价也在不断上涨。中央政府从民生角度要求地方政府对房价实施调控,地方政府则主要通过调整土地供给量和房地产税税赋来施加影响。土地供应量和税赋会影响供需双方从而影响房价,反过来房价又会影响税收收入及开发商对土地的需求,进而影响社会民生。本文对我国东、中、西部地区住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的关系进行分析,探讨各地区的住房价格上涨原因。通过构建住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的PVAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析和方差分解方法来透视地方政府行为对住房价格的影响。分析结果显示,地方政府行为和房价之间存在着联动关系,但在推动住房价格上涨的原因上存在着区域差异：在东部地区,土地供应量影响房价;中部地区,二者联合推动了房价上涨。而在西部地区,房地产税税赋对房价的影响明显。在政策建议上,对地价推动房价的地区要从丰富住房来源和数量入手,而税赋影响房价的地区则要完善相关税制改革。