The multiplier-effect of income and consumption taxes

Zusammenfassung Der Multiplikatoreffekt der Einkommen- und Verbrauchsteuern. — Die Abhandlung stellt die Wirkungen auf gew?hnliche finanzpolitische Multiplikatoren bei Aufgliederung der Volkswirtschaft in Sektoren, bei Annahme variabler Faktorpreise und unterschiedlicher marginaler Konsumneigungen von Lohnbeziehern und Empf?ngern von Residualeinkommen sowie bei Erhebung nichtproportionaler Steuern dar. Es wird gezeigt, da\ die Elemente der regelm?\igen Multiplikatoren bei Variierung dieser Annahmen durch gewogene Durchschnitte der gleichen Elemente ersetzt werden. Diese Werte sind manchmal marginale und manchmal Durchschnittsgewichte. Die Summe dieser Gewichte ist nicht not-wendigerweise gleich eins. Ferner implizieren die ?nderungen in den Annahmen die Verwendung gewisser Berichtigungsglieder in den Formeln. Es werden die gew?hnlichen Multiplikatoren bei ?nderungen der Einkommen- und Verbrauchsteuers?tze in Schaubildern dargestellt und einige Probleme der Multiplikatoren eines ausgeglichenen Budgets diskutiert. Zum Schlu\ werden einige Aspekte einer dynamischen Darstellung er?rtert.

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Résumé L’effet multiplicateur des imp?ts sur le revenu et la consommation. — L’article décrit les effets sur les multiplicateurs usuels de politique financière, quand on prend l’économie par secteurs, quand on suppose des prix de facteurs variables et des penchants marginaux de consommation différents pour les salariés et pour ceux qui ont un revenu restant, et pour le cas d’imp?ts non-proportionnels. Il est démontré qu’en variant ces suppositions, les éléments des multiplicateurs réguliers sont remplacés par des moyennes pondérées des mêmes éléments. Ces valeurs sont ou des poids marginaux, ou bien des poids moyens. Le total de ces poids n’égale pas nécessairement i. Si l’on change les suppositions, il faut introduire dans les formules certains ajustements. Sont donnés des diagrammes des multiplicateurs usuels sous une fluctuation des taux d’imp?t sur le revenu et la consommation, et sont étudiés certains problèmes des multiplicateurs d’un budget équilibré. Finalement, quelques aspects d’une présentation dynamique sont discutés.

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Resumen El efecto multiplicador de los impuestos sobre la renta y sobre el gasto de consumo. — El presente estudio ofrece una exposici?n de los efectos de los multiplicadores fiscales corrientes, teniendo en cuenta la división de la economía en sectores y suponiendo que los precios de los factores de producción son variables, que los asalariados tienen otra propension marginal al consumo que los receptores de ingresos residuales, y que el estado recauda impuestos no-proporcionales. Se demuestra por un lado, que los elementos de los multiplicadores corrientes quedan substitufdos por promedios ponderados de los mismos elementos, si se alteran los supuestos. Estos valores a veces son ponderaciones marginales, a veces ponderaciones por término medio. La suma de estas ponderaciones no es necesariamente igual a la unidad. Además se demuestra, que al variar los supuestos hay que variar tambien las formulas en una manera determinada. El trabajo contiene varios diagramas que expresan la cuantía de los multiplicadores corrientes al variar las tasas de los impuestos sobre la renta y sobre el consumo. Finalmente, se discuten varios problemas del multiplicador del presupuesto equilibrado, asf como algunos aspectos de una presentaci?n dinámica.

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Riassunto L’effetto del moltiplicatore delle imposte sul reddito e di quelle di consumo. — Il saggio espone gli effetti su usuali moltiplicatori politico finanziari nella suddivisione dell’economia in settori, nell’accettazione di prezzi variabili dei fattori e di differenti tendenze marginali dei consumi di salariati e beneficiari di reddito residuale come anche nella riscossione di imposte non proporzionali. Viene mostrato che gli elementi dei moltiplicatori regolari sono sostituiti, nella variazione di queste accettazioni, da medie ponderate degli stessi elementi. Questi valori a volte sono marginali e a volte pesi medi. La somma di questi pesi non è necessariamente uguale ad uno. Inoltre i mutamenti nelle accettazioni implicano l’impiego di termini di rettifica nelle formule. Gli usuali moltiplicatori sono rappresentati in grafici nei mutamenti dei tassi dell’imposta sul reddito e dell’imposta di consumo e sono discussi alcuni problemi dei moltiplicatori di un bilancio preventivo in pareggio. Alla fine sono dibattuti alcuni aspetti di una rappresentazione dinamica.

     

On the nature of deferred income taxes*

Abstract. The topic of deferred income taxes has generated considerable controversy. This paper observes that much of this controversy centers on the contingent nature of income taxes. It reviews the similarity between the firm's income tax liabilities and a European call option written on the firm's pretax value. From this perspective, deferred taxes are shown to effectively alter the exercise price of the call option held by the government, thus affecting the value of the firm's debt and equity claims. Additional results are obtained from the model by valuing the tax liabilities and the firm's financial claims via an exact option pricing formula. Finally, the paper shows that the model is robust to some of its underlying assumptions. Résumé. Les impôts sur le revenu reportés ont été l'objet d'une immense contraverse. L'auteur fait remarquer que cette controverse est en grande partie centrée sur la nature conjoncturelle des impôts sur le revenu. Il examine la similarité entre la dette fiscale de l'entreprise et une option d'achat européenne libellée sur la valeur avant impôt de l'entre-prise. Dans cette perspective, l'auteur démontre que les impôts reportés modifient effectivement le prix d'exercice de l'option d'achat détenue par le gouvernement, infiuant ainsi sur la valeur des droits à l'actif de l'entreprise. Il obtient des résultats supplémentaires du modèle en évaluant la dette fiscale et les créances financières de l'entreprise par l'intermédiaire d'une formule de détermination du prix exact de l'option. Enfin, l'auteur démontre que certaines des hypothèses sous-jacentes au modèle résistent à l'analyse.     

Export taxes and income distribution: The Philippines coconut levy

Export Taxes and Income Distribution: The Philippines Coconut Levy. — A large, empirically based general equilibrium model of the Philippine economy is used to analyze the implications of a tax on coconut oil exports. The analysis shows how general equilibrium models can be used to derive optimal tax rates and to show the detailed relationship between the rates at which these taxes are applied and their economic effects. The analysis explores in particular the effects such taxes have on economic welfare and on income distribution within the country. The distributional effects of this export tax are shown to be highly regressive, revealing more clearly the policy trade-offs such taxes involve.     

The relative variability of state income and sales taxes over the revenue cycle

The cyclical variability of state income and sales taxes is examined for each state by estimating the degree to which each tax follows the state's overall revenue cycle. Income taxes are found to be consistently more cyclically variable, and less predictable, than sales taxes. Factors explaining differences in cyclical variability across states are then identified in a regression model. States without income taxes have less cyclically variable revenues than states with both income and sales taxes, suggesting that cyclical variability in states without income taxes could not be reduced by broadening the tax base to include an income tax.     

The problems of labor supply and labor demand adjustment on the Russian labor market

This paper considers problems and specifics of labor demand and supply relations in the Russian labor market; it identifies and analyzes the underlying factors. It discusses the possibilities of inclusion in the analysis of structural characteristics of labor demand and supply and the dynamics of wages in the process of their conciliation in the Russian labor market, and it presents estimates of its basic parameters.     

Volunteer labor supply in The Netherlands

Summary The main aim of this paper is to provide insight in the determinants of the decision to participate (yes or no) in volunteer work and the decision with regard to the number of hours spent on volunteer work. These decisions are empirically analyzed with Dutch microdata for 1982 by means of a logit and a tobit model. The results indicate that age, education, family culture and the position on the labor market in combination with sex are important determinants of volunteer labor supply.The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Child labor, family income, and the Uruguay Round

Conclusion We are no longer limited to qualitative discussions of the merits of a social clause in the GATT against child labor. Future debates should be in quantitative terms. Child labor can contribute up to 25 percent of family income-contributions that the ILO regards as critical to their survival. Child laborers have few alternatives if they lose their jobs as a result of a social clause on labor standards. It is reasonably clear that child labor falls away quickly with economic development. However, multilateral trade agreements against child labor such as those proposed for inclusion in the WTO (and ILO) do not promote economic development. The contrary is more likely to be the case: they may reduce the range of alternatives available to children and their parents as producers, consumers, and breadwinners in developing countries.     

Economic studies of taxation in Japan: The case of personal income taxes

We argue that tax policy in Japan is on a shaky empirical ground. First, until recently, no serious attempts had been made to estimate labour responses to taxation, especially with respect to prime-age male workers. Second, while there is some stock of empirical analysis on labour supply response of female workers, few studies have appropriately allowed for the budget constraint structure implied by the tax system. Third, as a corollary, there is not a reliable stock of empirical estimates to quantify the frequently employed concepts of “disincentives to work” or “distortion.” Given this state of the literature, we introduce our estimates, and calculate the degree of distortion using the concept of the marginal cost of public funds.     

我国企业年金市场的供给与需求分析

企业年金作为我国养老保险的第二支柱将发挥着越来越重要的作用.企业年金在我国发展已有十年之久,目前我国的企业年金市场已经初步形成.我国企业年金市场状态是处于垄断与竞争并存.企业年金市场和供给是充足的,而企业年金市场的需求则是不足的.解决供需矛盾要采取有力的措施,而政府发挥作用则是根本性的.     

Comparative labor supply of black and white women

Conclusions The presence of young children decreases women’s labor supply as shown by the LFPRs for women with young children (which are always considerably lower than those for women without young children). Also, the number of young children is almost always negatively related to annual hours of labor supplied (significantly so in half the regressions). Black and white women are found to have an inelastic labor supply, but with increasing elasticity from 1969 to 1974. There is a statistically significant difference in the estimated regression coefficients of the labor supply model for black and white married women in 1969 and 1974 in both the arithmetic and logarithmic forms. The husband’s earnings are significantly negatively related to white married women’s annual hours of work in 1974, while the relationship is not significant for black married women. Crosselasticity terms show that white married women decrease their annual hours of work in response to an increase in husband’s earnings to a greater extent than black married women in 1971 and 1974. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that black women do not rely on their husband’s earnings to as great an extent as white women.     

Comparing the welfare effects of income and excise taxes in the presence of the other taxation paradox

This paper implements numerically a general equilibrium model in which all private producers are price makers and the government utilizes tax revenues to provide a public good. After deriving the partial equilibrium condition for an excise tax to increase price by more than the tax (for a monopoly firm), numerical examples are given, demonstrating this phenomenon for both partial and general equilibrium. In the general equilibrium context, optimal excise taxation and optimal flat-rate income taxation are compared. In the excise tax regime, prices increase by more than the taxes. In the income tax regime, prices actually decline relative to the no-tax regime. In all of the examples given, flat-rate income taxation is superior to excise taxation in terms of welfare. The author has benefitted from exceptionally helpful comments received from J. Ronnie Davis, John D. Wilson, Ralph W. Pfouts, and Amy Crews. He has also benefitted from conversations with Franz Gehrels, David E. Wildasin, Herbert J. Kiesling, and Harold York. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Changes in factor supply,income distribution and the transfer problem

Zusammenfassung Anderungen des Faktorangebots sowie der Einkommensverteilung und das Transferproblem. — Obwohl allgemein anerkannt wird, da der Umfang des Au\enhandels, die Terms of trade und die Vorteile der internationalen Arbeitsteilung teilweise von der ursprünglichen heimischen Einkommensverteilung abh?ngen und da\ ?nderungen des Faktorangebots die Einkommensverteilung beeinflussen, ist die Wirkung von induzierten Ver?nderungen der Einkommensver-teilung auf den Handel und ihre Beziehungen zu dem Transferproblem selten eingehend untersucht worden. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, benutzt die vorliegende Arbeit eine Produktionsfunktion mit gegebener Substitutionselastizit?t. Es wird gezeigt, wie ein erh?htes (verringertes) Faktorangebot die Einkommensverteilung, die ihrerseits die Nachfrage nach verschiedenen Gütern beeinflu\t, ver?ndern würde, und auf welchem Weg die neue Nachfragestruktur zusammen mit dem Angebot die Preise der Güter, den Umfang des Au\enhandels und die Terms of trade bestimmt. Darüber hinaus wird dargelegt, da\ die Theorie der Einkommensverteilung in der Theorie des internationalen Handels einen gr?\eren Anwendungsbereich hat, als es auf den ersten Blick scheinen mag und insbesondere, da\ sie direkt auf Transfer-probleme angewendet werden kann.

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Résumé Les changes en offre des facteurs, la distribution de revenu et le problème de transfert. — Bien qu'on approuve généralement que le volume, les termes des échanges et les gains originaires du commerce extérieur partiellement dépendront de la locale distribution initiale de revenu et que les changes en offre des facteurs sont déterminés d'affectuer la distribution de revenu, on a rarement cónsideré l'effet des changes, induits en distribution de revenu, sur le commerce extérieur et leurs relations avec le problème de transfert sérieusement. Le papier présenté ici utilise une fonction de production d'une élasticité de substitution donnée pour combler cette lacune. Nous démontrons comment une augmentation (ou diminution) en offre des facteurs changera la distribution de revenu que de sa part affectue la demande en faveur des biens divers, aussi bien que la manière comment la nouvelle structure de demande ensemble avec l'offre déterminera les prix des biens, le volume et les termes des échanges. En outre, nous arguons que la théorie de la distribution de revenu a une application plus vaste dans la théorie du commerce international que semblerait en premier lieu et qu'on particulièrement peut l'appliquer directement aux problèmes de transfert.

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Resumen Cambios en la oferta de factores, distribución del ingreso y el problema de la transferencia. — A pesar de que se acepta generalmente, que el volúmen, términos del intercambio y beneficios del comercio dependen en parte de la distribución inicial del ingreso doméstico y que cambios en la oferta de factores afectan necesariamente la distribución del ingreso, raramente se han considerado en forma séria los efectos de cambios inducudos en la distribución del ingreso sobre el comercio y sus relaciones con el problema de la transferencia. Para llenar este vacío el présente artículo utiliza una función de producción con una elasticidas de sustitución dada. Se muestra cómo un aumento (o disminución) en la oferta de factores hace cambiar la distribución del ingreso, la que a su vez afecta la demanda de varios factores, como también la manera como el nuevo patrón de demanda junto con la oferta determinan los precios de los bienes, el volúmen y los términos del intercambio. Adicionalmente se argumenta, que la teoría de la distribución del ingreso tiene una aplicación más amplia en la teoría del commercio internacional de lo que parece a primera vista y que, en particular, se puede aplicar directamente a problemas de transferencia.

     

The supply of labor time for mature females

Conclusions Overall, the evidence indicates that women view their leisure time as a normal good. The responsiveness in supply to changes in asset income is small.For females with spouse present, their time is a gross complement with respect to their spouse's time if the spouse's labor supply curve has negative slope. Simultaneously, the spouses' times appear to be net substitutes.There is evidence in both survey years of a backward bending labor supply curve for females. While most females remain on that part of their supply curve which has positive slope, females, particularly those with no spouse present, seem to be moving toward the backward bending segment of that curve over time. It seems that both females with and without spouse present will be behaving more like their male counterparts over time.This study evolved from a Department of Labor grant (Contract No. J-9-E-7-0180) made to Copley International Corporation, La Jolla, California. I am grateful for the assistance provided by Steven Alan Eich in working with the massive data sets utilized for this study.     

Optimal flat-rate taxes on capital - a re-examination of Lucas' supply side model

We examine the transitional dynamics of Lucas' supply side modelof the US economy in order to specify the effects of capitaltaxation on economic growth and welfare. We restrict the analysisto policy plans characterized by constant capital taxes andrequire the government to maintain a balanced budget. Underthese restrictions, the optimal tax rate on capital is shownto be positive and sensitive to the government expenditure rule.Welfare can be further increased by the introduction of a taxon asset holdings.