European monetary union, adjustment, and exchange rate variability

This paper uses a three-country, three-good, factor-specific model of trade with wage rigidities to investigate how European Monetary Union is likely to affect exchange rate variability. Focusing on international macroeconomic adjustment under both exogenous and optimizing monetary policies, it shows that the relative variability (against external currencies) of the euro and a basket of predecessor currencies depends on the relative sizes and specialization patterns of countries and the relative importance of different shocks. Monetary union is likely to decrease (increase) aggregate European exchange rate variability for shocks to industries in which large (small) euro area countries specialize.     

Panel cointegration and the monetary exchange rate model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation.     

The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination

In this article, we test three popular versions of the monetary model (flexible price, forward-looking and real interest differential models) for the OECD member countries by applying Johansen cointegration technique. Based on country-by-country analysis, we conclude that monetary models do not provide the expected results. We reveal several shortcomings of the models and examine the building blocks of the fundamental version. Although researchers always blame the deviations from purchasing power parity as the reason for the failure of the monetary model, our analysis indicates that invalidity of Keynesian money demand function is also responsible for unfavourable results.     

The exchange rate mechanism's role in the european monetary system

The European Community was established with the intent of reaching full economic, monetary, and political union among its member countries. The three elements of the European Monetary System—the Exchange Rate Mechanism, the European Currency Unit, and the European Monetary Fund—were designed to work together to achieve monetary integration among the member states. German reunification, as a result of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, played an important role in the failure of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Many steps will need to be taken in order for the European community to obtain full economic and monetary union.     

Adjustment to monetary policy and devaluation under two-tier and fixed exchange rate regimes

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether a two-tier exchange rate regime is more effective than a fixed rate regime in increasing a country's ability to pursue an independent monetary policy. The analysis compares adjustment to a monetary policy and to a devaluation in the two exchange rate regimes in a portfolio model under imperfect assets substitutability. It is shown that a two-tier exchange rate regime is capable of reducing the current account effects of monetary injection or devaluation only in the long run. In the short run, however, we can get a larger current account response under a two-tier regime. These results reflect the trade-off between quantity and price adjustment.     

Dynamic forecasting of monetary exchange rate models: Evidence from cointegration

The Frenkel-Bilson and Dornbusch-Frankel monetary exchange rate models are used to estimate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. This means that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Based on error correction models, two monetary models outperform the random walk model at the three-, six-, and 12-month forecasting horizons. Therefore, monetary exchange rate models are still useful in forecasting exchange rates.     

A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling

The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in Poland and the euro area, inflation rates, CDS indices and the zloty/euro exchange rate, four long-run relationships were found. Two of them link term spreads with inflation rates, the third one describes the exchange rate and the fourth one explains the inflation rate in Poland. Transmission of shocks was analysed by common stochastic trends. The estimation results were used to calculate the zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate.     

Stock markets and the exchange rate: A multi-country approach

A general model of optimal choice over risky assets is used to derive an estimable exchange rate equation which is then applied to the German mark-U.S. dollar and Japanese yen-U.S. dollar exchange rates. Previous models which exclude equities find that government bond and/or money stocks have a weak effect on exchange rates, a result that is also found here. By contrast, equity values are shown to have a significant effect on the value of the German mark-U.S. dollar and Japanese yen U.S. dollar exchange rates over the period 1974 to 1988.     

Tests of different monetary aggregates for the monetary models of the exchange rate in five ASEAN countries

Although the real interest rate parity (RIRP) hypothesis has been extensively tested, there are no conclusive findings. We argue that the mixed findings are a result of the different methods used to calculate the real interest rate. In this article, we examine whether the RIRP holds for four OECD countries using five different methods for computing the real interest rate. The results indicate that the connection between real interest rates tends to be sensitive to the computational method of the real interest rate. Thus, authors have to be careful when comparing results across existing studies, since the type of computational method might be responsible for differences in conclusions of the validity of the RIRP.     

The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar

In this paper the validity of the monetary exchange rate model in the long run for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate is examined. The primary test employed is the Johansen (1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration technique. The effects of dummy variables and lag specification on the statistical inference are considered, and Monte Carlo simulations based on the estimated parameters are employed. Despite the use of the longest data set yet for the Canadian case, no evidence is found in favour of the monetary exchange rate model using the Johansen procedures. This result is confirmed by several other cointegration procedures. JEL Classification: F31; F41
La faillite du modèle monétaire du taux de change pour les dollars canadien et américain. Ce mémoire examine le modèle monétaire du taux de change pour savoir s'il est validé par l'expérience canado-américaine en longue période. Le test principal utilisé est la technique de cointégration de Johansen (1991) et Johansen et Juselius (1990). Les effets des variables fictives et de la spécification de la structure de délais sur l'inférence statistique sont considérés, et on utilise des simulations de Monte Carlo fondées sur les paramètres calibrés. Malgré le fait qu'on fait appel à la plus longue série chronologique utilisée dans ce type d'analyse à ce jour, on ne trouve aucun support du modèle monétaire du taux de change en utilisant les procédures de Johansen. Ce résultat est confirmé par l'utilisation de plusieurs autres procédures de cointégration.     

Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study

This paper reexamines empirical performance of the monetary exchange rate model with nonlinear dynamics of exchange rate deviation from the monetary fundamentals. First, we apply unit root test of Park and Shintani (2005) to post-Bretton Woods exchange rate data and able to reject the null of unit root deviation from monetary fundamentals against alternative hypothesis of nonlinear stationary process for deutschemark, pound, and Swiss franc. Our empirical results find that exchange rates show high degree of mean-reversion with larger deviation and long periods of overvaluation and undervaluation of dollar. We also find empirical evidence of predictability of the monetary fundamentals at longer horizons.     

Revisiting the interest rate–exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach

In this paper the interest rate–exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of an interest rate defense are investigated empirically. I present a reduced form evidence which characterizes the empirical relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. I use a Markov-switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time-varying transition probabilities. Empirical evidence from six developing countries: Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, and Turkey indicates that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime. Thus, the empirical results presented here may support the view that a high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate. Unlike other studies which consider linear models only, my findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes (Asian 1997 crises, Mexico 1994 crisis, and Turkey 1994, 2001 crises). In order to explain the empirical findings, I construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating an interest rate rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002) [Jeanne, O., Rose, A.K., 2002. Noise trading and exchange rate regimes, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117 (2) 537–569]. The model has multiple equilibria, and under plausible conditions, higher exchange rate volatility is associated with higher interest rates.     

An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?

We analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between merchandise export volume and its determinants, foreign income, relative prices and exchange rate volatility, using the techniques of cointegration and error correction. The model was estimated for Irish exports and sectoral exports SITC 0-4 and SITC 5-8 to the EU using quarterly data for the period 1978-1998. The sectoral classification corresponds to the exports of mainly indigenous Irish firms and multinationals, respectively. We find that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the short-run but a significant positive effect in the long run. This is true in the aggregate and for our sectoral classifications. We can tentatively conclude that the decline in intra-EU exchange rate volatility associated with the single currency will lead to a long-run fall in Irish exports to the EU.     

The opportunistic approach to monetary policy and financial market conditions

We test the concept of the opportunistic approach to monetary policy in South Africa post-2000 inflation targeting regime. The article contributes to the current debate on central banks having additional objectives over and above inflation and output by incorporating a measure of financial conditions in the modelling framework. Our findings support the two features of the opportunistic approach. First, we find that the models that include an intermediate target that reflects the recent history of inflation rather than simple inflation target improve the fit of the models. Second, the data supports the view that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) behaves with some degree of nonresponsiveness when inflation is within the zone of discretion but react aggressively otherwise. Recursive estimates from our preferred model reveal that overall there has been a subdued reaction to inflation, output and financial conditions amidst the increased economic uncertainty of the 2007–2009 financial crisis.     

解析外汇储备对中国货币政策的影响

本文从中国外汇储备的现状入手,分析了中国外汇储备迅猛增长的原因,封高外汇储备封中国货币政策影响的机理追行了探讨,从而得出结论：高外汇储备使基础货币的可调控空间减小,弱化了中国货币政策的自主性。     

The real exchange rate and the black market exchange rate in developing countries

This article tests for the validity of the Purchasing power parity (PPP) theory using both the black market and the official exchange rates for panels with cross sectional dependency. The test is conducted using a newly developed, nonlinear IV panel unit root test that properly handles cross-sectional dependency for thirty-seven developing countries. We find that the null of joint unit root hypothesis is rejected for the whole panel, using the black market exchange rate, and for sub-panels of African and high inflation countries, using either exchange rate. The black market-based real exchange rates are, therefore, shown to provide stronger evidence for the purchasing power parity theory than do the official rates. This finding is consistent with the observation that black market exchange rates better represent market forces and thus are more relevant when testing for the validity of the PPP theory in developing countries.