政府购买养老服务的优化治理——基于合同制治理理论的思考

政府购买养老服务是政府应对养老难题所采取的新举措。养老服务的质量不仅取决于合同的质量,还取决于政府官员管理合同的能力。政府购买养老服务的核心就是要处理好购买服务合同问题。合同制治理理论将公共合同管理分为整理、运作和分离三个阶段,这三个阶段面对的具体问题不同、治理的侧重点也有所不同。为公众做好购买养老服务交易,政府需要优化购买服务合同的治理。     

Optimal Stabilization Policy Under Governmental Risk Aversion

Governmental stabilization policies take account of the underlying risk aversion of its voters. A utility function for the government is defined, one which includes variances of national income changes with respect to its policy instruments—here the budget variable, the bond rate of interest, and the currency-exchange rate. The consequence of this for the optimal set of policies is a target level of national income less than what a risk-neutral government aims at. This applies to an open economy when this is a key-currency country, as it need attend to balance-of-payments effects only insofar as they affect national income. The non-key-currency country, by contrast, must take account directly of balance-of-payments effects and their variance, so it reaches a lower level of utility than the key-currency country.     

日本养老制度及养老产业现状--以静冈为考察重点

每个人都会老去,养老是一个谁都避不开的话题。日本是目前世界上老龄化程度最高的国家,在养老理念、养老制度等方面也远远走在了世界各国前面。笔者有幸在日本静冈围绕日本养老制度以及养老产业展开了一系列调研。     

职工养老保险基金的最优缴费率与投资管理研究

本文首先叙述了社会保障基金的现状以及基本养老保险基金显性与隐性的债务问题,试图站在基金可持续发展的角度,分别就缴费端与投资管理端两个方面提出政策建议。其中,以我国城镇职工统账结合养老保险制度的缴费率为研究重点,通过建立最优缴费率模型,对社会统筹缴费率和个人账户缴费率中如何分配展开研究。并在基金投资管理方面提出建议,从社会保险基金理事会等日常管理机构的内部控制制度和财政部门、审计部门对社会保险基金管理机构的外部监督检查两个方面入手,具体实施对基金运行的监管,从而实现基本养老保险的可持续发展。     

Pension Challenges and Pension Reforms in Oecd Countries

The 30 OECD member countries have very diverse pension systems.Current old-age public pension spending varies between lessthan 1 and more than 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).Public spending on pensions per person aged 65 or over variesfrom less than 15 to more than 40 per cent of economy-wide GDPper head. For workers entering the labour market today, thetarget pension from all mandatory sources for an average earnervaries between 30 and 100 per cent of individual earnings. Recentpension reforms have a number of common themes. First, pensioneligibility conditions have been tightened. Second, the indexationof pensions in payment has become less generous. Third, somepension schemes link benefit levels to changes in life expectancy.Finally, a number of countries have introduced defined-contributionpensions: privately managed schemes where the pension benefitdepends on contributions and investment returns. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: peter.whiteford{at}oecd.org; edward.whitehouse{at}oecd.org     

我国社会养老保险基金的筹资现状和运行风险

社会养老保险基金的筹资规模既体现了养老保险量的规定性,也反映了社会养老保险制度质的水平.目前我国社会养老保险基金的筹资既存在着企业缴费负担过重、工资替代率高和筹资面窄等方面的问题,又面临着人口老龄化、支出需求激增和历史欠债大以及缺乏基金积累等风险.要保证社会养老保险基金的顺利运行,实现社会养老保险的既定目标,政府需要采取财政援助、完善制度和行政立法等手段以确保社会养老保险基金的筹集.     

Smith v. Pareto

This paper argues that we do not and cannot actually use Paretian criteria, therefore, I recommend that we stop pretending we do.Presidential Address presented at the Forty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Vienna, Austria, March 16–23, 1999.     

健康风险对最优消费-证券组合的影响

本文在一个代表性消费者的偏好中引入了健康,而健康水平受一个随机冲击的影响,在这一假定下我们得到了消费者最优消费以及投资组合问题闭形式的解。模型的解表明,在最优消费路径上边际消费倾向随健康水平期望增长率提高而提高,而随健康水平波动率提高而下降;同时消费者对健康关注程度的提高对于边际消费倾向的影响取决于预期健康水平增长率和波动率的相对大小,这些结果对于解释我国经济转轨时期的消费、储蓄以及财富积累现象具有一定的价值,尤其是对于我国实现经济增长转向依赖于以内部消费需求为主的政策提供了有益的启示。     

商业银行信贷资源配置效率分析

商业银行信贷资源要实现优化配置应该围绕企业外部市场均衡与内部博弈均衡为中心,随着国有商业银行经营范围的拓宽,信贷资源如何实现跨部门分专业的优化配置问题日显突出,本文就提升商业银行信贷资源的配置效率问题,围绕实现市场均衡与博弈均衡,从有效信息、有效激励与动态结构调整三个角度探讨了制约信贷资源跨部门优化配置效率中的瓶颈问题,并相应地给予了政策指导思路。     

Pareto - improving intergenerational transfers

In the presence of endogenous growth intergenerational transferfrom the young to the old reduce per capita income growth andharm future generations. On the other hand, competitive equilibriaare inefficient if externalities sustain long-run growth. Thispaper shows that if individuals retire in the last period oftheir life, the inefficiency of the market economy can be removedby an investment subsidy without making the current or futuregenerations worse off only if coupled with intergenerationaltransfers from the young to the old.     

基于层次分析法的风险响应措施选择模型构建

风险响应措施的选择是在成本效益原则的基础上选择最优的风险应对方案。本文运用层次分析法的基本原理,分别构建风险降低层级结构和风险措施成本层级结构,通过各方案的相对风险降低权重与其相对成本消耗权重对比,取其中最大比值所对应的方案作为最优风险响应措施的确定依据。最后,以原材料供应风险为例说明了优选过程。     

智利养老金改革25周年:养老金投资与资本市场

2006年是智利社会保障制度改革25周年.众所周知,智利养老金改革取得了举世瞩目的成就.在智利的带动下,已有20多个国家在全球社会保障制度改革进程中进行了养老金私有化改革,从而掀起了一股养老基金投资资本市场的热潮.     

探析高端养老产业发展对地方经济和养老体系造成的影响

我国自1999年以来便正式步入了老龄化社会。随着人口老龄化逐渐成为社会矛盾,对我国老龄化服务产业的发展也提出了更高的要求。在家庭空巢化、人口老龄化等问题的背景下,养老需求持续增加,市场上逐渐出现了多样性、多层次的养老产品。在我国改革开放的浪潮下,养老服务也逐渐重视老而富的这一部分人群,他们的积蓄丰厚,消费观念比较新潮,对养老服务的需求也较高端化。本文对当前我国高端养老产业进行相关论述,重点提出高端养老产业高速发展模式下对地方经济以及地方养老体系产生的影响,旨在通过本文的研究论述,为我国高端养老产业的不断发展提供相应的理论参考。     

民间资本的养老困局

在公办养老机构远远不能满足养老需求的背景下,民营资本进入养老产业一直被看好,但许多投资人带着梦想进入,却在亏损边缘挣扎。“民办养老院盈利太难了,现在想来,当时创办养老院或许是个错误的决定。”曹明推开养老院办公室的玻璃窗,看着对面滔滔北去的湘江水,一脸无奈地说。楼下,有10多名老年人坐在院子中央的葡萄架下打牌。     

The Pension Age as a Factor Regulating the Deficit of the State Pension System

Contrary to the widely held attitude towards the necessity of immediately raising the retirement age, this article demonstrates the absence of demographic conditions for changing the existing regulations in granting pension insurance. The demographic factors are recognized as the basic development conditions of the state pension system; however, they have a multichannel impact on it, which requires a holistic and qualified analysis of all the relevant parameters for the governmental regulation. The pension age is viewed from the perspective of achieving the objectives of pension reform and strategic benchmarks in the long-term development of the Russian Pension system.     

养老基金投资管理体制：借鉴与构建

在人口老龄化与经济增长乏力带来的养老金财政压力下,日本将侧重于服务经济增长的政府经营管理的养老金投资模式,转变为追求稳定且有效率投资回报的政府集中管理、民间机构具体投资的模式。借鉴日本经验,我国需要尽快清除养老金统一投资运营的诸多障碍,建立中央政府负责管理和投资战略,国有投资机构具体投资运营的养老金投资模式,采用数量限制投资规则,以服务经济发展和追求稳定投资回报为目标。     

Rethinking Pension Reform in China

I. IntroductionIn the last decade, social insurance has been undergoing a process of reform in bothdeveloped and developing countries. Old age pensions have the broadest coverage andfrequently the largest cost of any program in the entire social insurance system, and inmany countries have become or threaten to become a major burden on public finances.Hence they have been the subject of much discussion. Attention has been concentratedon thequestion of which system should be chosen: should it b…     

Optimizing the Life-Cycle Path of Pension Premium Payments and the Pension Ambition in the Netherlands

De Economist - We determine the optimal life-cycle path of pension premiums during the working ages and pension benefits during retirement, assuming that households can choose these freely. We...