对我国货币政策内部时滞的实证研究

基于前瞻性货币政策理论,运用VAR模型和方差分解技术对1998年1月~2009年9月间我国货币政策的内部时滞进行实证研究。在1998年1月~2009年9月间我国货币政策存在一定程度的内部时滞。消费者信心指数和企业家信心指数与前瞻性货币政策存在长期稳定的因果关系。因此,货币当局实行前瞻性货币政策时短期政策应盯住企业家信心指数,中长期政策应盯住消费者信心指数。     

ВаЖевсКИЙ不等式的改进

本文推广了ВаЖевсКИЙ关于变系数线性微分方程组解的估计式,从而得到时变线性系统谱的更精确的估计。     

基于财务绩效综合指数的竞争战略绩效时滞效应研究

本文以沪市企业季度财务数据为支撑,采用验证性因子分析识别企业的竞争战略类型,利用灰色关联度分析方法计算战略综合绩效指数,并借助VAR模型及脉冲响应函数等分析工具分析竞争战略绩效的时滞效应。研究结果表明:企业绩效的提升滞后于竞争战略的实施,竞争战略的绩效存在滞后性和持续性,且相较于低成本战略而言,实施差异化战略的企业其绩效滞后期和持续期更长。     

论中国的货币政策时滞

80年代以来，我国货币政策时滞十分明显，已成为制约实现政策目标的重要因素；货币政策的时滞效应，包括了中央银行、商业银行体系，社会公众等不同环节的时滞；缩短我国货币政策时滞，便成为当前提高货币政策效率的关键因素之一。     

浅议中央银行货币政策的时滞影响

本文通过数学演绎的方法,从控制通货膨胀的角度揭示了在政策时滞的影响下中央银行货币政策的操作行为。并且论述了在连续时间中,只要货币政策存在时滞,中央银行的任何一次性货币政策操作都将极大可能地引发物价出现非预期的波动。最后证明了化解政策困境的办法就是采取灵活的分时段的多次操作以寻求次优的结果。     

一类变分不等式问题与无约束优化问题的等价性

本文主要研究了一类变分不等式问题在满足一定的广义凸性的前提下,与一类无约束优化问题的等价性关系。     

中国货币政策时滞研究——基于中美对比视角

该文主要应用向量自回归模型,通过方差分解和脉冲响应函数研究货币政策时滞,将货币政策传导机制与货币政策时滞分析相结合,比较全面地研究了货币政策外部时滞的结构特征,即冲击时滞、峰值时滞和累积时滞。通过对比中国和美国主要各项金融指标对GDP和CPI的时滞来研究中国货币政策时滞特点,得出以下主要结论:一是中国货币政策对产出的时滞要长于美国的时滞,但我国货币政策比美国能更有效调节产出,数量型工具在调节产出方面要优于价格型工具;二是中国货币政策对物价的时滞要短于美国,数量型工具同样更为有效。根据研究结论有针对地提出相应政策建议。     

国有上市公司股权结构变动的时滞效用研究

股权结构与上市公司业绩是一个长期悬而末决的问题,.本文以1990年到2010年上市时含有国有股的1174家公司为研究样本,对其国有股变动如何随着时间推移影响上市公司的业绩进行研究,得出国有股变动影响公司绩效的最佳时间段为国有股变动滞后一年的结论.     

税收征纳中的不等式

有些财务人员在学习税收法律法规时,反映有些名词和术语容易混淆,这就有必要准确理解其内涵,否则,就有可能差之毫厘,谬之千里。节税≠避税节税是指纳税人在顺应立法意图,遵循税收法律法规的前提下,利用税法中固有的起征点、免征额、减免税等一系列优惠政策,或者绕开税收惩罚等倾斜调控措施,通过对企业筹资、投资及经营等合法方式的活动安排,达到少缴税款的合理行为。避税是指纳税人违背国家的课税意图,利用税法上的漏洞或缺陷,通过资金转移、费用转移、成本转移、利润转移等方法躲避纳税义务,以期达到少纳税或不纳税的一种非违法经济行为。…     

一类二阶非线性变时滞微分方程解的有界性

借助辅助函数讨论了一类二阶非线性变时滞微分方程解的有界性。     

Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations

Maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of stochasticdifferential equations are consistent and asymptotically efficient,but unfortunately difficult to obtain if a closed-form expressionfor the transitional probability density function of the processis not available. As a result, a large number of competing estimationprocedures have been proposed. This article provides a criticalevaluation of the various estimation techniques. Special attentionis given to the ease of implementation and comparative performanceof the procedures when estimating the parameters of the Cox–Ingersoll–Rossand Ornstein–Uhlenbeck equations respectively.     

A Continuous Time Model to Price Commodity-Based Swing Options

On the commodity market there exist contracts which give the holder multiple opportunities to adjust delivery of the underlying commodity. These contracts are often named “Swing” or “take-or-pay” options. They are especially common on the electricity market.In this paper the price of a Swing option on commodities is investigated under the additional constraint of a recovery time between two different exercise times. We give an explicit characterization of the price function as the value function of a continuous stochastic impulse control problem and prove existence of an optimal control. We investigate the connection between the price function and the solution of a system of quasi-variational inequalities. Finally, we present a numerical algorithm for solving the quasi-variational inequalities, and give some numerical examples.JEL Classification: C61, C62, C63     

Time diversification and security preferences: A stochastic dominance analysis

We use stochastic dominance to test whether investor should prefer riskier securities as the investment horizon lengthens. Return distributions for stocks, bonds, and U.S. Treasury bills are generated for holding periods of one to 25 years by simulation. For each holding period, stochastic dominance tests are run to establish preferences between the alternative security classes. Contrary to previous mean-variance based studies, we find no evidence that high-risk securities (stocks) dominate low-risk securities (bonds, Treasury bills) as the investment horizon lengthens. However, we do find that corporate bonds systematically dominate government bonds.     

LME镍、铜期货价格变动的时间序列分析

本文基于2003～2008年伦敦金属交易所（LME）3月镍、铜期货价格的日线数据,运用经典的时间序列R／S分析方法来研究镍、铜期货市场价格的非线性特征。分析结果显示：LME镍、铜期货市场价格波动是典型的有偏随机游动,H值均大于0．5,期货价格时间序列具有持久性趋势;LME镍、铜期货存在大约分别为447天和442天的非周期循环长度。     

Online Kernel estimation of stationary stochastic diffusion models

Nonparametric regression has recently become important in quantitative finance due to its distribution-free property. However, this advantage does not come without any cost. As large sample sizes are always required to adequately estimate local structures, nonparametric regression is computationally intensive in real applications. This paper proposes an online method to decrease the computational cost of nonparametric regression for estimating stationary stochastic diffusion models. We establish asymptotic behaviours of the proposed estimators under appropriate conditions. Numerical examples and an empirical study of US 3-month treasury bill rates are illustrated. The application to financial risk management is also taken into consideration.     

A discrete and a continuous-time model based on a technical trading rule

In this article we propose a model in discrete and continuoustime that incorporates explicitly a technical trading rule inthe specification of the volatility. The proposed discrete-timemodel is an alternative to GARCH-type processes. We derive conditionsfor the covariance and strict stationarity of the discrete-timeprocess and we study the estimation and inference problems.We also analyze the conditions under which the discrete-timeprocess converges in distribution to a diffusion process. Toillustrate the proposed model and compare it with the GARCHspecification, we analyze the daily closing stock prices oftwo major U.S. companies (Microsoft and Oracle), two stock indices(DAX and NASDAQ) and two U.S. Dollar exchange rates (Euro andSterling)     

股指期货合约存续期价格引导关系的时变性研究

针对股指期货非季月合约存续期较短这一特点,按一定的标准将股指期货非季月合约2个月的存续期划分为合约上市期、主力合约期、非主力合约期、合约交割期等阶段,采用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析等方法,利用各阶段5分钟或1分钟高频交易数据对股指现货、股指期货主力合约、股指期货非主力合约的价格引导关系进行实证分析,得出的结论是股指期货非季月合约在其存续期内的价格引导能力具有明显的时变性特征,股指期货和现货市场的跨市场监管者和交易者需要根据股指期货合约价格引导关系的时变性来合理制定自身的监管策略和交易策略。     

Differential reporting in Germany - A historical analysis

Based on a contingent perspective of accounting change, this paper reviews the historical development of differential reporting in Germany, by drawing on primary and secondary sources. The main objective of the paper is to shed light on the driving forces and main influential parameters that have shaped the existing differential reporting framework. This historical approach supplies interesting insights for the current discussion on differential reporting in Germany produced by the EU Regulation on the application of International Accounting Standards.