Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade

In this paper we examine the impact of membership in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962–2000 we find that membership in a PTA is associated with an increase in the extent of intra-industry trade. Our results indicate that this is especially the case for PTAs formed between richer countries, with the effects of PTAs between poorer countries found to be smaller.     

Vertical trade and free trade agreements

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on tariffs and welfare in vertical trade. We consider a three-country model, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good and a country exporting an intermediate good. The FTA unambiguously leads to a reduction in the member country’s tariff, but may cause the non-member country’s tariff level to increase. In the case, where FTA raises the non-member country’s tariff level, the FTA increases that country’s welfare. In contrast, the FTA may render its member countries better off. This result implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto-improving.     

Fragmentation and trade: US inward processing trade in the EU

Fragmentation and Trade: US Inward Processing Trade in the EU. — Fragmentation, which refers to the splitting up of a previously integrated production process into separate components, is seen as one of the reasons for the increasing globalization of the world economy. This paper undertakes an empirical study of the extent of US inward processing trade (IPT) in the EU, which we use as a proxy for fragmentation in trade. We also provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the distribution of US IPT across manufacturing sectors in the twelve EU member states. Our results give support to the importance of comparative advantage for the sectoral distribution of US IPT. Also, we find that the labour costs and the level of US FDI stocks affect US IPT in EU peripheral countries, while they do not seem to have any impact on EU core countries.     

North American trade liberalization and intra-industry trade

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung in Nordamerika und der intra-industrielle Handel. - Der Verfasser untersucht die Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Mexiko und den Vereinigten Staaten in den 80er Jahren und vergleicht sie mit den Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Kanada und den USA im gleichen Zeitraum. Er stellt fest, da? der intra-industrielle Handel in den Beziehungen zwischen Mexiko und den USA an Bedeutung gewonnen hat, was vermutlich auf die zunehmende Handelsliberalisierung Mexikos zurückzuführen ist. In der Tat waren in den sp?ten 80er Jahren die relativen Niveaus des intra-industriellen Handels ?hnlich hoch, wenn man die bilateralen Handelsstr?me zwischen Mexiko und den USA mit denen zwischen Kanada und den USA vergleicht.

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Résumé La libération des échanges nord-américains et les échanges intra-industriels.- Dans cette étude l'auteur examine les tendances du commerce bilatéral entre le Mexique et les Etats Unis pendant les années quatre-vingts. Il les compare aux tendances du commerce bilatéral entre le Canada et les Etats Unis pendant la même période. Il trouve que les échanges intra-industriels sont particulièrement augmenté en ce qui concerne le commerce entre le Mexique et les Etats Unis. Cela montre que la libéralisation commerciale prend place principalement de la part du Mexique. En effet dans les années quatre-vingts, les niveaux relatives des échanges intra-industriels ont été assez similaires si l’on compare les échanges bilatéraux entre le Mexique et les Etats Unis d’une part et le Canada et les Etats Unis d'autre part.

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Resumen La liberalizatión del comercio en América del Norte y el comercio intrasectorial. - En este trabajo se examina el perfil del comercio bilateral entre México y los EE UU en los a?os ochenta y se lo compara con el perfil del comercio bilateral entre el Canadá y los EE UU en el mismo período. Se encuentra que la importancia del comercio intrasectorial aumentó en el comercio entre México y los EE UU durante el periodo estudiado, reflejando ante todo avances en la liberalizatión del comercio por parte de México. En efecto, hacia fines de los a?os ochenta, los niveles relativos de comercio intrasectorial eran bastante similares en ambos casos, México-EE UU y Canadá-EE UU.

     

Determination of trade flows and choice of trade partners: Reconciling the Heckscher-Ohlin and the Burenstam Linder models of international trade

Zusammenfassung Die Bestimmung der Handelsstr?me und Auswahl der Handelspartner: Wie man die Au\enhandelsmodelle von Heckscher-Ohlin und von Burenstam Linder in Einklang bringt. — In der Au\enhandelsliteratur werden zwei Ans?tze zur Bestimmung der komparativen Vorteile unterschieden: (i) das Heckscher-Ohlin-Modell, das die relative Verfügbarkeit der Produktionsfaktoren als die ent-scheidende Determinante der Handelsbeziehungen ansieht; und (ii) das Burenstam Linder-Modell, das untersucht, wie sich gleichartige Pr?ferenzen der Konsumenten in der Nachfrage und im internationalen Handel niederschlagen. Dieser Artikel verbindet beide Ans?tze in einem einzigen Modell, in dem jeder der beiden Ans?tze nur einen Spezialfall darstellt. In dem Aufsatz wird die Bedeutung des gemeinsamen Modells für die Handelsstr?me, die Konsumm?glichkeiten und die Relation zwischen dem Au\enhandel und der Gr?\e einer Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Im empirischen Teil wird demonstriert, wie nützlich das Modell bei der Vorhersage des Handels mit unterschiedlichen Produktgruppen ist.

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Résumé La détermination des flux d’échanges et le choix des partenaires com-merciaux: La réconciliation des modèles de l’échange international de Heckscher-Ohlin et de Burenstam Linder. — La littérature sur les échanges internationaux distingue entre deux approches à la détermination de l’avantage comparatif: (i) le modèle de Heckscher-Ohlin qui regarde l’abondance relative des facteurs de production comme déterminant principal des relations commerciales; (ii) le modèle de Burenstam Linder qui examine la similarité des préférences des consommateurs comme elle est reflétée sur la situation de demande et les effets sur le commerce extérieur. Cet article incorpore les deux approches dans un seul modèle dans lequel chaque approche constitue un cas spécial. L’article examine les implications du modèle unifié pour les relations commerciales, les possibilités de consommation et le rapport entre les échanges internationaux et la dimension de l’économie. La section empirique démontre l’utilité du modèle pour prédire les relations commerciales des différents groupes des biens.

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Resumen Determination de los flujos comerciales y la elección de los socios comerciales: Reconciliando los modelos de comercio international de Heckscher-Ohlin y Burenstam Linder. — La literatura del comercio internacional distingue entre dos planteamientos para la determinatión de las ventajas comparativas: (i) el modelo de Heckscher-Ohlin, que considera la abundancia relativa de factores de production como el determinante más importante para el patrón de comercio; (ii) el modelo de Burenstam Linder, que examina las similitudes en los gustos re-flejados en el acondicionamiento de la demanda y su impacto sobre el comercio. En este artículo se incorporan los dos planteamientos dentro de un modelo único en el que cada uno constituye un caso especial. El artículo examina las implicaciones del modelo unificado para los patrones de comercio, posibilidades de consumo y la relatión del comercio con respecto al tama?o del país. La parte empírica del artículo demuestra la utilidad del modelo para predecir patrones de comercio de distintos grupos de productos.

     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

Impact of trade cost on China-EU agri-food trade

In this research, we investigate trade costs in relation to China-EU trade in agri-food products during 2001–2015. Major components of trade cost include transportation costs, border-related policy barriers such as tariffs, and local distribution costs. Our results indicate that trade costs between China and EU involving agri-food products, although falling, remain abnormally high. Consequently, we find that trade cost reductions contribute to over half of the overall China-EU trade growth. Our decomposition technique demonstrates that economic growth and trade cost reductions are the key drivers of China-EU trade expansion. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would reduce high trade costs to increase EU-China bilateral agricultural trade significantly. This is not fully captured in the gravity models where a static distance is usually used as a proxy to trade cost. The BRI will not reduce the distance, but it will cut transportation and other components of trade cost for China-EU trade.     

Have Asian trade agreements reduced trade costs?

Regionalization of trade in East Asia increased in the 1990s, and has been accompanied by a growing number of trade agreements. The wave of trade agreements is in part a response to the need to facilitate trade in order to make regional value chains more profitable. This paper draws on a rich Australian database for the period 1990–2007, which allows us to control for distance and commodity characteristics and to identify cross-country variation in trade costs. The results, indicating the extent to which East Asian countries’ trade costs have fallen over the regionalization period relative to changes in other regions’ trade costs, provide evidence of the existence of effective policy steps to facilitate trade and also that these steps have multilateral as well as bilateral or regional benefits.     

Intra-African trade

Review of World Economics - The intra-continental trade share in Africa is only 12%, compared to 47% in North America, 53% in Asia, and 69% in Europe. This paper shows that the lack of...     

全球绿色贸易壁垒与我国对外贸易发展对策

绿色贸易壁垒越来越发展成为非关税壁垒的主要形式，并成为新的国际贸易保护主义的工具。随着我国加入WTO，对外贸易遭遇绿色贸易壁垒日益繁多。研究绿色贸易壁垒，并寻因应之策，对进一步拓展我国出口贸易具有重要现实意义。     

加入WTO与我国外贸出口面临的绿色壁垒问题

绿色壁垒已成为影响我国外贸发展的重要因素。加入WTO后我国外贸出口面临的这一问题将更加突出，本文对绿色壁垒问题进行了理论分析。并考察其对我国国际经贸及对我国外贸出口的影响。以及加入WTO后我国外贸出口所面临的绿色壁垒的变化情况，最后讨论了相应应对措施。     

我国对外贸易步入摩擦多发期

我国对外贸易已步入贸易摩擦多发期,对此应高度重视、积极应对. 当前我国面临的对外贸易摩擦形势主要有以下几个突出特点:第一,贸易摩擦数量居高不下.以反倾销为例,1995年至2006年,我国连续12年成为全球遭受反倾销调查最多的国家.     

How important is intra-industry trade in trade growth?

Empirical work on intra-industry trade (IIT) is almost 30 years old. Initial research sought to identify if IIT was a significant share of total trade (TT). The Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index was widely used for this purpose. Interest has since shifted to the changing importance of IITover time. Using movements in the GL index to infer the importance of IIT over time is not only vague, but can be misleading. In this article, we measure the contributions of growth in net trade (NT) and IIT to the growth in TT. To understand changes in IIT over time, we also derive the contributions of imports and exports to the growth in TT, NT, and IIT. All our formulas are illustrated with data for 205 Australian manufacturing industries.     

浅论国际服务贸易中的交易费用

与其它市场交易一样，国际服务贸易的发展要受到交易费用的影响。本文首行分析了这种影响，然后着重论述了影响国际服务贸易交易费用的因素，最后对可能减少国际服务贸易交易费用的因素进行了说明-其中包括GATS对之所作的贡献。     

Balancing the Baltic trade: colonial commodities in the trade on the Baltic, 1773–1856

Abstract

This article attempts to look at the connection between the Atlantic and the Baltic economies during the transition from early modern to the modern era. Previous research has seriously underestimated the importance of colonial commodities traded on the Baltic during this period. Colonial commodities, particularly from the American plantation complex, became ever more important for the Western European balance of payments on the Baltic. Already by the late eighteenth century, these commodities were on aggregate worth approximately as much as the exports of strategic commodities such as grains or iron from the Baltic at the same time. By the middle of the nineteenth century, the value of colonial commodities imported to the region far surpassed the value of such key exports from the Baltic. The colonial commodities thus constituted an important part of the balance of payments for the trade on the Baltic.     

Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade

This paper investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade using a comprehensive data base of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. Total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines where preferences are likely to matter): while the former was one-third of global trade in 2000–2002, the latter was between one-sixth and one-tenth. Gravity model estimates indicate that using total trade to assess the impacts of PTAs leads to a significant downward bias in the PTA coefficient: the semi-elasticity of trade with respect to PTA membership rises from 87% for total trade to 119% for preferential trade. Product exclusions and long phase-in periods significantly limit preferential trade; the marginal impact of South-South agreements on preferential trade is much higher than North-South PTAs, while the effect of North-North agreements is insignificantly different from zero.     

全球价值链分工下的双边贸易收益核算：以中美贸易为例

通过构建双边贸易收益核算模型,从总体规模、行业结构、实现方式等层面对中美双边贸易收益进行核算。本文发现中美双边出口中均包含着大量的对方国内增加值,与增加值贸易差额比较,传统统计口径的中美贸易差额出现明显高估。其中中国对美货物出口的贸易顺差被显著高估,而服务出口的贸易顺差被明显低估。在中美双边贸易中,中国对美出口包含的本国国内增加值比重不到七成,而美国对华出口包含的本国国内增加值比重超过八成。中国出口到美国的产品绝大部分表现为最终产品并且被美国当地消费,而美国出口到中国很大部分表现为中间品,并且通过对增值折返及对第三国出口的形式实现。     

Measuring trade creation effects of free trade agreements: Evidence from wine trade in East Asia

East Asia has experienced an unprecedented expansion in its wine market over the past two decades. This paper examines the extent to which import tariff reductions through bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have contributed to an increase in wine imports to Japan, China, and South Korea. Our empirical method involves estimating an augmented version of the gravity equation by the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) technique. Analyzing a panel dataset for 1990–2016 covering 27 exporters, we find that overall a 1 percentage point reduction in tariff among FTA member countries is associated with an increase in the wine import volumes by 0.042%, which is seven times higher than a similar reduction in tariff on an MFN basis. The strongest trade creation effects are founded for bottle wine. The results are robust to various specifications.