WTO COMMITMENTS AND CAP ADOPTION IN CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

INTERFAMILY TRANSFERS AS ALTERNATIVES TO GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS TO PERSONS*

How have government transfers altered the distribution of income, the level of work effort, and the rate of personal saving? Most scholars approach this question by comparing the current level of government transfers with the unrealistic counterfactual of a zero-transfer situation. This method overlooks the fact that nongovernment transfers existed before government transfers and the possibility that private transfers might have grown more if government transfers had grown less. This paper explores the significance of one private alternative to government transfers-namely, direct interfamily giving of cash, food, and housing. Fragmentary evidence suggests that such interfamily transfer was quantitatively more important than governmental transfer for these purposes thirty years ago, but is now only half as great. If current government transfers are conversions of, or substitutes for, interfamily transfers, then it follows that some of the benefits of government transfer “slide” over to “secondary beneficiaries,” i.e. those who would have made the private transfers. Further, it follows that the effects of government transfers are not much different from those of the private transfers which they replace.     

ATKINSON AND BOURGUIGNON'S DOMINANCE CRITERIA: EXTENDED AND APPLIED TO THE MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY IN FRANCE

We demonstrate that the criteria put forward by Atkinson and Bourguignon (1987) can be satisfactorily applied to the analysis of poverty even when the demographic composition of society and the definition of poverty change over time. We show that they provide both sufficient and necessary conditions for any robust conclusions concerning the changes in welfare and poverty. We apply these criteria to a set of data tracking annual income distribution movements in France from 1977 to 1994. The Atkinson and Bourguignon criteria posit that recent changes in poverty are a function of macroeconomic fluctuations in activity.     

PRIVATE INTERHOUSEHOLD TRANSFERS OF MONEY AND TIME: NEW EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

There is a growing awareness that it is important to understand patterns of family assistance; however, there is still a great deal of information about private transfers that is not known. This study begins to fill this void by presenting results from a new survey and integrating these findings with evidence from recent studies that use other new data sets. It is found that: (i) a large share of households participate in private transfer networks, (ii) a greater amount of financial assistance is provided to lower income family members, (iii) altruism does not fully explain transfer behavior, and (iv) people in their 20s and 30s receive more assistance than people of other ages, even the very old.     

SECTORAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: TESTING THE IMPACT OF POLICY REFORMS IN INDIA

This paper analyses the impact of India's policy reforms on exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices, using panel data (at one‐digit SITC level) for pre‐ (1980–90) and post‐reform (1991–2001) periods. While the pass‐through into import prices has declined, the pass‐through into export prices (in USD terms) has increased during the 1990s. The results suggest that, relative to rupee depreciation, Indian exporters increased their USD prices around 20% in the 1980s, but decreased them by around 70% in the 1990s. Moreover, the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass‐through increased in the 1990s (six), relative to the 1980s (three). These changes may be attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls, which increased competition among firms and fostered a concern with market share gains in the 1990s over an attempt to use depreciations to increase profits in the 1980s.     

POLITICALLY CONTESTABLE RENTS AND TRANSFERS*

A rent or transfer is politically contestable when policy decisions are subject to influence by potential beneficiaries and losers. This paper studies contestablility of rents and transfers when contenders place different valuations on the politically allocated prize. Asymmetric valuation inhibits participation by low-valuation contenders. The model explains the phenomena of small numbers of active participants in contests to exercise political influence and low lobbying and other influence-seeking outlays relative to the value of politically allocated prizes.     

BETWEEN GROUP INEQUALITY AND TARGETED TRANSFERS

This paper provides two extensions to the group decomposition of the Gini index by Yitzhaki and Lerman. First, within group, stratification, and between group inequality are analyzed along several dimensions at once. This provides for a better understanding of the determinants of inequality. Second, the impact on the Gini of marginal changes in income or consumption by group is derived. This can be used to evaluate targeted redistributive policies or assess the impact of exogenous shocks by group. The analysis is applied to data from Bangladesh with a focus on the impact of land ownership, education, and occupation on inequality.     

WATER SUBSIDIES, WATER TRANSFERS, AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

Water pricing subsidies and restrictions on water transfers are integral features of federal water supply policies in the western United States. Critics claim that these features discourage efficient use of water. However, current analyses ignore an important feature of federal water supply contracts: entitlement ceilings. This paper analyzes the implications of entitlement ceilings for federal water policies and several proposals for policy reform, including eliminating transfer restrictions, reducing pricing subsidies, and imposing groundwater pump taxes. Analysts may overstate both the efficiency losses resulting from Bureau policies and the amount of water that would be freed up from agriculture if the proposed policy reforms were instituted.     

PUSHING THE SISYPHEAN BOULDER? MACROECONOMETRIC TESTING IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

What are the implications of the historically observed economic policy instability in Latin American countries (LACs) for macroeconometric testing? Two pressing restrictions on the econometrician using time-series of LACs arise: time-varying parameters and time-varying specifications. Such an instability also has profound impacts on time-series measurements of national accounts at constant prices. This, together with the “second best methodology” used in LACs for computing real GNP, implies that LACs figures on GNP growth reflect growth in gross production rather than in value added. LACs time-series for private consumption are unreliable. Crucial data set constraints in LACs further complicate the task for the econometrician.     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN DENMARK 1982–89: TESTING THE RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS/CONSTANT LIQUIDITY PREMIUM THEORY

In this paper we examine whether the rational expectations/constant liquidity premium-theory can explain the Danish term structure of interest rates during the 1980s. Three types of tests will be conducted: a single-equation regression test, a volatility-test, and tests based on a cointegrated VAR-model. All these tests remain valid even if interest rates individually follow non-stationary stochastic processes. In contrast to most other empirical studies of the term structure, the evidence generally supports the rational expectations/constant liquidity premium-theory.     

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY WITH A BREAK IN PANELS WHERE THE TIME DIMENSION IS FINITE

In this paper, we consider the case of finite time dimension in the panel stationarity tests with structural breaks. By fixing T, the finite sample properties of the tests for both micro (T small and N large) and macro (both T and N large) panel data are generally greatly improved. More importantly, the derivation of the tests for finite T and , as opposed to joint asymptotic where N and simultaneously, avoids the imposition of the rate condition making the test valid for any (T, N) blend. Four models corresponding to the usual combination of breaks are considered. The asymptotic distributions of the test are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. Their moments for T fixed are derived analytically employing Ghazal’s corollary 1. The case with unknown breaks is also considered. The proposed tests have generally empirical sizes that are very close to the nominal size. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the power of the test statistics increases substantially with N and T.     

TESTING FOR MULTIPLE BUBBLES: LIMIT THEORY OF REAL‐TIME DETECTORS

This article provides the limit theory of real‐time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201–26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099–1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right‐tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive algorithm) that may be used in real time to locate the origination and collapse dates of bubbles. Under certain explicit conditions, the moving window detector of PSY is shown to be a consistent dating algorithm even in the presence of multiple bubbles. The other algorithms are consistent detectors for bubbles early in the sample and, under stronger conditions, for subsequent bubbles in some cases. These asymptotic results and accompanying simulations guide the practical implementation of the procedures. They indicate that the PSY moving window detector is more reliable than the PWY strategy, sequential application of the PWY procedure, and the CUSUM procedure.