面向城市洪涝的社会脆弱性空间识别与规划策略——以南京市为例

气候变化和城镇化的双重力量作用下，日益频繁的洪涝灾害已成为中国城市面临的重大挑战。通过社会脆弱性评估识别易受淹地区并提出相应的规划策略，是降低风险和增强气候适应性的重要途径。以南京市为例，通过构建面向洪涝的城市社会脆弱性评价框架，识别南京社会脆弱性的空间分布特征。结果表明：社会脆弱性总体上呈现“中心—外围”模式，即中心城区和远郊区社会脆弱性高，近郊区社会脆弱性低，进一步划分了“高暴露型”、“高暴露—高敏感型”、“高暴露—低适应型”和“低适应型”四种政策分区，并提出了具体的应对措施。     

滨海城市空间结构气候复杂适应研究——基于CAS的厦门城市空间结构优化探讨

气候变化与城镇化深刻影响着我国滨海城市安全与可持续发展,"气候适应"已成为城市应对气候变化的战略共识。研究基于复杂适应系统理论(CAS),构建城市空间结构气候适应优化理论框架;分析"空间结构"与"气候变化"复杂适应性特征,探讨城市空间与气候系统适应性主体的交互性、复杂性以及适应性过程机制,构建城市空间结构气候适应模型,并以厦门市为具体案例城市进行实证研究,以期为我国滨海城市应对气候变化问题、适应气候变化规划提供科学依据和技术支撑。     

防控重大风险 建设韧性城市

阐述的四个观点如下:第一,风险性(脆弱性)是现代社会和城市的一大特征;不确定性是现代城市灾害的另一特征,现代城市公共安全面临重大问题与困局。第二,安全与健康是城市发展的初心与使命;亟需高度关注城市公共安全和韧性城市的发展。第三,韧性城市建设迫切需要完善城市风险管理机制,毁灭性风险可能是"黑天鹅"或"灰犀牛";建立和完善基于风险管理的城市公共安全体系,包括预警系统、预防系统、应急反应体系和恢复重建体系。第四,建设具有可持续特征的韧性城市系统工程;韧性建设与韧性治理已成为社会治理的重要内容;韧性城市规划建设需要尊重城市发展规律。     

滨海城市“气候承载—空间适应”方法研究——厦门气候承载空间模拟分析

城市气候承载力作为城市适应气候变化的核心测度,反映城市系统与气候系统之间互馈关系,其空间状态关乎城市安全与可持续发展。基于DPSIR和状态空间法,构建城市气候承载空间概念模型、气候承载力评价指标体系与评测模型,提出气候承载—空间适应方法体系;结合GIS,以厦门为具体案例城市,定性、定量、定位进行城市气候承载空间模拟分析,创建城市气候承载地图(UCC Map),判定气候承载—空间适应热点区域,进而提出城市气候承载—空间适应优化建议。以补充"气候变化"与"城市空间"相互调节适应的空白,为我国城市积极应对气候变化提供技术支撑。     

浅析建立低碳城市规划体系的意义

我国在2009年哥本哈根气候变化大会上承诺,2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%～45%;为实现温室气候排放目标,建立低碳城市规划体系将成为这一新理念的标志,也将是发展低碳城市,实现减排目标的必由之路。低碳城市规划是发展低碳城市的基本战略、有效策略和可靠保障。     

碳审计在总体规划中的角色

所有国家地区都会受气候变化影响,无一例外.全世界需要要走向低碳经济发展道路."低碳经济"一概念被提出.低碳经济是指一种发展模式,在经济增长中排放最少之温室气体,以高能源效率产出,推动可持续之社会发展.目前我国把城市经济、社会、环境体系作为单元出计量碳排放量之实施经验不多,更没有具体项目把碳审计概念融进我们之城市规划管理体系内.城市规划建设作为直接影响城市碳排放之决策环节,这缺口必须通过把规划编制过程和手法扩展.最基本任务是把"碳排放审计"概念实施在总体规划编制过程中.本文笔者就城市总体规划编制流程和规划管理提出建议,深化我国城市规划决策流程,应对气候变化之挑战.     

论城市转型与城市规划转型——以深圳为例

以波特的区域发展理论为基础,以深圳为例并借鉴发达国家城市与城市规划发展历程,从推动我国城市发展的关键因素入手,阐释改革开放以来我国城市发展阶段与城市规划的关系,并根据城市转型的趋势提出未来城市规划转型的方向.作者认为,在城市处于投资推动阶段,城市规划的基本作用是构建完善的城市增长支持系统,确保城市"以土地换资本"的实现,在这一阶段城市规划呈现出"物质性规划"、"技术性规划"等特征;在城市处于创新推动阶段,城市规划的作用在于为城市打造一个全方位的"城市创新支持系统".为此,我国当前的城市规划应积极推进政策化、综合化和公众化,以城市规划的转型促进城市的转型.     

城市规划设计中生态城市规划的研究

生态城市规划是可持续发展理念的重要举措,能够显著改善城市的生态环境,调节城市的气候温度,为城市带来更多的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益,现已在我国的众多省市中得到了推广和应用。本文将论述城市规划设计中生态城市规划的现状,并提出生态城市规划的原则、内容和具体策略,以期强化生态城市规划的效果,从而促进城市的健康发展。     

中国城市迈向近零碳排放与正气候发展模式

在巴黎举行的第21次联合国气候变化大会(COP21)提出了实现全球温室气体的净零排放。城市要迈向零碳排放的发展模式不能只局限在建筑的技术应用层面。从空间与多元化手段整合的要求上,零碳排放的发展需要通过于城区空间层面创新规划、设计、运营路径达到。提出"正气候"的城市项目发展模式,作为未来我国城市通过城区建设更新带来的机遇,迈向零碳排放的手段。正气候发展模式可以有效引导我国城市发展尽快达到碳排放峰值。在我国城市还有20年城镇化的历程中,一方面可以把未来新建城区的碳排放量最少化,同时也要把握城区发展和更新的机遇,以项目带动城市空间(如土地-交通结构)重组、低碳投资,推动市场手段与体制改革,为周边城区带来减低碳排放的外部性效应,从而达到整体净负碳排放的"正气候"效果。迈向正气候的城区发展模式,在实施保障方面需要跳出以技术应用为核心的传统政策思维,不限于在建筑尺度的设计手段,而要积极探讨在城区空间尺度可以带来的外部性减碳手段,包括推动分布式能源建设、绿色出行、废物零填埋、建筑节能管理服务、城市森林等。与此同时,需要在目前我国法定城市规划与建设流程上提出创新体制,引入动态监控碳排放机制,保障减碳排放目标能够通过法定管理体制贯彻城区建设的整个生命周期,达到正气候效果。     

日本城市适应气候变化的政策机制及实践经验

城市适应气候变化是全球气候治理和可持续发展领域的热点问题,日本建立了完善的城市适应气候变化法律政策体系,推动城市适应行动,具有较高的参考价值.梳理不同阶段日本城市适应气候变化的核心议题和突出特征,针对城市适应总体框架、主要适应内容、保障和支撑机制等进行深入研究,讨论日本城市适应气候变化的具体实践.结合日本经验和我国实际情况,提出我国应夯实城市适应气候变化的科学基础、将适应理念纳入城市发展规划、完善跨城市和跨部门合作协调机制、建立多元主体适应气候变化机制、促进多目标协同的建议,以期对我国城市适应气候变化有一定的借鉴与启示.     

Corporate Strategies for Managing Climate Risks

This paper focuses on organizations and their management of climate risks. Climate risks stem from continued changes in climate means and the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. We ask whether companies also apply the usual process of corporate risk management to climate risks. In seeking to answer this question, we review several literature streams in order to set out an initial theoretical reflection. Based on this we conducted an exploratory case study with 11 electric utilities. Our results illustrate that these companies perceive climatic changes as a material issue for their business. However, management has restricted knowledge about such climatic changes and thus cannot precisely determine the potential negative impacts on business activities. As a consequence, the companies have implemented a climate risk management that does not differ from the usual process of managing other business risks. Our results further illustrate that there is some variation in how individual firms manage climate risks: While risk identification and risk assessment are equally important for all electric utilities, there are differences in how management determines the direction of the individual response to climate risks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Metropolitan Strategies and Climate Governance: Towards New Evaluative Approaches

In the new millennium, cities have become an emerging force among new forms of subnational climate governance. Of interest is how cities act unilaterally and directly in this new climate politics via the provision of relevant tools. Since metropolitan planning strategies have been considered as important mechanisms for achieving urban sustainability in this period, this research has sought to investigate the importance of these master plans in the delivery of urban responses to climate change. For this purpose, the study has employed a qualitative research methodology with the application of a comparative case study and the progression of a conceptual framework for evaluating climate policies in metropolitan plans of two selected cities—London and Melbourne. The study's results suggest that both the ‘London Plan’ and ‘Plan Melbourne’ incorporate critical elements to enhance climate governance, including the promotion of coordination principles, innovative technologies, a participatory planning approach and a long‐term planning scale. However, the review identified a consistent omission of key principles as identified through the proposed matrix for analysing the climate policies of a city's government, which include risk assessment tools, monitoring systems, distribution, impact frame and accountability. Moreover, the research also revealed the lack of vertical integration in policy formulation and implementation of ‘Plan Melbourne’. Our study suggests that a city's governance structure influences the way it undertakes its climate actions and the potential efficacy of these on a metropolitan scale.     

特定城市汽车尾气PM2．5控制办法研究

特定城市具有特定的地理环境和气候条件，不同城市的道路交通设计和交通管理水平不尽相同，因此不同城市的汽车尾气中PM2．5颗粒物扩散的速度和叠加效应各具特点。文中创新性地从汽车尾气排放PM2．5与气候及车辆行驶速度的关联性角度分析，找出特定城市汽车尾气PM2．5的控制办法，为特定城市找到一条适合自己的汽车尾气PM2．5治理办法提供思路。在解决思路中，文中创新性地提出“车联网”的概念，使城市交通做到双向主动管理。     

Resilient Growth: Fantasy Plans and Unplanned Developments in India's Flood‐Prone Coastal Cities

Academic and policy literatures on urban climate resilience tend to emphasize ‘good planning’ as the primary means for addressing the growing risk of flooding in Asia's coastal megacities. Cities have come to rely on disaster and climate resilience plans to future‐proof their landscapes and protect vulnerable populations. Yet while data is collected, models are built and plans are drafted, environmentally destructive development practices continue unabated and often unchallenged. This article examines and seeks to explain the contradictions between a growing awareness of the risks of climate‐induced flooding in resilience plans and the continuation of development practices widely acknowledged to exacerbate those risks. It analyzes these contradictions in the context of Mumbai and Kolkata, India's largest coastal cities, which are facing the severest threats from climate‐induced flooding. Based on analyses of key resilience planning documents and both planned and unplanned developments in some of Mumbai's and Kolkata's most ecologically sensitive areas, our analysis reveals that resilience planning, promoted by the central government and international consultants, and presented in locally produced ‘fantasy plans’, fails to address the risks of climate‐change‐related flooding owing to tendencies to sidestep questions of politics, power and the distributional conflicts that shape urban development. We conclude that efforts to reduce urban flood risk would benefit from the research, methods and analytic concepts used to critically study cities, but significant gaps remain between these fields.     

Toward The Networked City? Translating Technological ideals and Planning Models in Water and Sanitation Systems in Dar es Salaam

One of the most influential ideals for constructing and managing cities and infrastructures worldwide is that of the ‘networked city'. This ideal refers to the technological design and morphology of cities integrated and ordered by infrastructure networks and to a specific model in the operation, use and planning of infrastructures. Engineers, planners and public health officials have aspired to align with this circulating ideal of urban modernity, hygiene and rationalization of nature in (re)producing cities worldwide. Like many cities in the global South, Dar es Salaam cannot be characterized by universal access to centralized water and sewerage networks. While formal institutions, planning documents and strategies reflect significations, as well as organizational and planning models of a networked city, its urban environments are shaped by hybrid arrangements manifesting unequal access to water and sanitation services. We build on postcolonial critique in urban studies and science and technology studies to inquire into this contradiction by addressing the translation of the ideal of the networked city in Dar es Salaam. Our objective is to uncover the negotiations over the translation of this hegemonic model, and to delineate the scope of creativity in reinventing alternative urban modernities that defy simplistic notions of technology transfer.     

现代化城市规划管理机制的创建及体系的创新

城市规划管理是实现城市规划目标的过程,是对城市建设活动的组织和控制。要想把城市规划好、建设好、管理好、规划蓝图能否实现,关键是规划管理。本文结合多年城市规划工作实践,着重从创建具有中国特色的现代城市规划管理机制和创新城市规划管理体系方面进行了详细探索与思考。     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Regulations on the Business Community: A System Dynamic Approach

Based on the business environmental literature and system dynamics, this paper develops a simulation model for managing the business risks derived from climate change. In particular, the purpose of this paper is to transform the valuable findings from the literature regarding climate change and corporate implications into an effective business management model with a broad applicability, regardless of the size of the business or the sector in which it operates. A methodology consistent with the basic principles of the system dynamic modeling process is developed, and a case study is designed to determine the level of completeness of the simulation model and its ability to address different aspects of business performance. To do so, three different scenarios have been simulated to analyze the reactive, proactive and inactive stance of managers against climate change risks. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

工业化以来人类对城乡关系的认识

从城市及其规划理论、社会改革理论、城乡经济发展实践和村庄建设管理体制等角度对工业化以来城乡关系研究进行了评述。指出了村庄和城市的本然关系,城市不能脱离村庄而存在,村庄和城市间没有必然的从属关系。认为现有的城乡关系理论以城市发展观和增长正统论为主流,致力于解决工业和城市发展问题,并未跳出城市站在更加广阔的视野下研究城乡关系;虽然城市和村庄的分离对立在大多数理论中得到体现,但城市—村庄矛盾的斗争性和同一性却并未被全面审视,对这一矛盾运动如何因势利导还需要进行长期深入的探讨。     

The significance of digital data systems for smart city policy

Our planet is gradually moving towards an urbanized world. Modern urban agglomerations tend to turn nowadays into advanced information hubs supporting a smart management of dynamic urban systems. The currently popular notion of ‘smart cities’ aims to provide a new perspective for sustainable and high-performance strategies of city stakeholders in our ‘urban century’. In this context, digital information technology provides a new tool for efficient and effective management and planning of urban space, inter alia in the field of transportation, environment, public facilities or advanced service provision to citizens. This paper aims to offer, first, a concise overview of the emerging opportunities of information and communication technology (ICT) for smart urban policy; digital technology in particular, appears to provide novel pathways for modern planning strategies in smart cities. Against this background, the paper sketches out the complex force field of global urbanisation phenomena and highlights the data and information needs for strategic planning of cities (using inter alia as a framework the so-called ‘urban piazza’ strategy framework). Secondly, various new decision support tools that are currently emerging and that offer a new promising scope for handling complex urban management issues (for instance, on accessibility, congestion, safety or sustainability) are briefly presented. And finally, the potential of such digital data systems for urban management and policy is concisely illustrated by means of some recent applications in the area of smartphone data systems. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges ahead for urban policy, inter alia by paying attention to institutional and governance aspects of ‘big digital data’ management in urban systems.     

Climate Change Adaptive Capacity in Santiago de Chile: Creating a Governance Regime for Sustainability Planning

For most urban areas, the challenges of adaptation are as urgent as those of mitigation. This is particularly the case where adaptive capacity is weak, particularly in low‐ and middle‐income countries, and the benefits of global mitigation in the short term will be experienced beyond 2050. A focus on adaptive capacity‐building in these vulnerable settings is imperative. Much of the emphasis in climate change since the early 1990s has been on basic science and how public policy should respond to it; less attention has been paid to the governance implications and connections with wider development processes. This article explores the governance challenges of adaptation in the Santiago Metropolitan Region. It points to weaknesses in the water and energy sectors, which have highly sectoral, horizontally unintegrated institutional structures and instruments that pose significant challenges for adaptation. Such cases point to the need to engage with both the wider planning concerns of existing development strategies and the basic elements of transdisciplinarity, finance and human capital‐building, in order to forge a more integrated adaptation response. Without an engagement with the governance issue and wider debates around metropolitan planning and socioeconomic development, it is unlikely the response will move beyond a limited physical infrastructure investment programme.