超低生育水平对人力资本和经济增长的影响--以江苏省太仓市为例的分析

人口是社会经济活动的主体，人口数量和结构的变化必然对社会经济发展产生多种影响。超低生育水平所带来的严重的人口老龄化将对许多国家和地区区域经济增长产生负面的影响。本文试图将人力资本存量作为联系人口因素和经济增长的中间变量，从人力资本的数量和质量两个方面分析超低生育水平对经济增长的影响，并在最后提出了提高人力资本以保持经济持续增长的对策。     

浅谈社会经济对人口地域分布的影响

人口的地域分布是人口发展过程在地理空间中的表现形式,人口流动、分布与区域经济社会发展状况紧密相关。人口分布主要是一种社会经济现象。本文从自然环境、生产发展水平和经济条件、历史、社会、文化政治因素的角度,以山西省为例,通过人口密度、人口宽广度、人口接近度指标,具体分析了不同因素的作用。     

长三角城市群的经济发展与人口迁移老龄化

2010年长三角人口总量、GDP总量，人口密度、人均GDP和地均GDP都处较高水平。长三角的高收入和优裕生活条件吸引外来人口流入。大量的人口流入，使上海、浙江的人口老龄化似乎得到了缓和，但户籍人口老龄化程度仍非常高。论文讨论了人口老龄化的三个阶段：长寿（健康）老龄化、少子老龄化和迁移（流动）老龄化。迁移老龄化加剧农村空心化，加大了政府和社区的社会责任；迁移老龄化的突发性使其与经济发展相关性下降：迁移老龄化也造成全局老龄化和区域老龄化、社会老龄化和家庭老龄化、户籍人口老龄化和常住人口老龄化相背离。这些都必须引起有关方面高度注意。     

中国寿险业区域差距的实证对比分析

寿险业的发展受风险、经济、社会、人口、观念等许多外部因素的影响,而区域间外部发展环境的不同,决定了各区域寿险的发展基础和要求不同,并最终形成了寿险业的区域特色和区域间发展水平的差距。东、中、西部寿险业发展影响因素的实证研究表明:各因素对不同地区寿险发展的影响程度不同,相比较而言,人口受教育程度差距是造成中、西部与东部寿险业发展水平差距的主要原因。但从总体来看,各影响因素对寿险发展的直接作用程度较低,说明区域外部发展环境对地区寿险发展的推动作用有限。因此,应转变寿险经营方式、实施人才战略、开发具有地区特色的寿险产品、充分发挥地方政府对寿险业的支持作用和提高消费者保险意识来推动寿险业的进一步发展,缩小区域差距。     

新疆人口分布与社会物质积累协调发展分析

本文基于新疆人口分布与社会物质积累协调性分析和区域社会经济发展水平及人口集中分布特征,围绕基础设施、交通和社会财富水平的协调发展,对新疆人口分布与社会物质积累协调性进行了综合评价。总体上,新疆人口分布与社会物质积累协调性较差,说明新疆社会经济发展水平较低,而且区域发展不平衡。     

近20年重庆市老龄化格局的时空演变与驱动因素研究

为减轻人口老龄化进程加快对重庆市经济社会持续稳定发展产生的影响。基于最新的第七次人口普查数据及历年统计年鉴数据，应用空间自相关、地理探测器等研究方法，分析20年来重庆市人口老龄化的时序演变特征、空间演变特征及其驱动因素。人口老龄化进程不断加深。2000-2020年人口老龄化系数由8.84%增长至17.08%，逐步向深度老龄化社会迈进。重庆市老龄化格局与经济发展水平呈现倒“U”形关系。老龄化的高值区由主城区向东北部演进，20年以来老龄化空间集聚特征增强，但集聚趋势逐渐放缓。老龄化现象由人口因素与社会经济因素共同作用形成。主要驱动因素由医疗服务水平转变为人口惯性及人口出生率，各影响因素间交互作用显著。     

打中国长寿之乡品牌建滨海康体养生圣地

2010年10月，中国老年学学会授予广西东兴市“中国长寿之乡”称号，东兴市成为我国第16个“中国长寿之乡”。东兴是一个集沿海沿边、辖区人口最少、京族唯一聚居地于一身的长寿之乡，也是一个小康型长寿之乡。“中国长寿之乡”是一块含金量很高的综合性社会品牌，“打好中国长寿之乡品牌，     

浅议凉州区人口与经济协调发展

一、引言人口发展既是制定区域经济和社会发展规划的重要依据，也是中长期区域发展规划本身应该研究的重要内容。控制人口增长，调整人口结构，提高人口素质，是人口与社会经济协调。发展的重要保障。本文主要从人口对经济发展的影响这一角度出发，结合甘肃省武威市凉州区2000-2005年人口与经济发展概况，从多个经济指标分析和探讨凉州区的主要人口经济问题，并研究相应对策。     

内蒙古人口年龄结构变化对经济发展的影响

人口问题是影响社会经济可持续发展的首要因素.人口年龄结构对一个区域的经济发展有着相当重要的作用.了解人口年龄结构变动的规律及趋势,在编制经济与社会发展规划,制订人口政策和社会经济政策等方面,有着重要的意义.本文基于2000年中国第五次人口普查资料、2010年中国第六次人口普查资料及2015年抽样调查数据分析内蒙古人口年龄结构变动的趋势与经济社会发展的影响,并提出政策建议.     

1997—2014年区域物流碳排放影响因素分析

结合1997—2014年数据测算区域物流碳排放,利用TAPIO脱钩弹性系数和LMDI方法对区域物流碳排放的脱钩状态和影响因素进行分解。结果表明,大部分区域物流碳排放表现出逐年增加的趋势,广东和山东始终位居前列,区域物流碳排放与区域物流经济表现为扩张负脱钩、强脱钩、弱脱钩和增长联结等脱钩状态,能源效率、能源消耗结构近几年表现为减碳因素,人均GDP和人口大多数时期表现为增碳因素,区域物流的比重对区域物流碳排放影响微乎其微。     

Longevity Risk

Most of the western world has seen a steady increase in the average lifetime of its inhabitants over the past century. Although the past trends suggest that further changes in mortality rates are to be expected, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the future development of mortality. This type of uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. This paper reviews the current state of the literature concerning longevity risk. First, we discuss the modeling of future mortality, including the Lee and Carter (J Am Stat Assoc 87:659–671, 1992)-approach, as well as other approaches. Second we discuss the importance of longevity risk for the solvency of portfolios of pension and life insurance products. Finally, we investigate possibilities for longevity risk management. In particular, we consider longevity risk management through securitization and/or pension and insurance (re)design.     

Black Americans’ business ownership factors: A theoretical perspective

The black American struggle in the United States continues to occur in the political, cultural and economic spheres with some measure of success. Regarding the economic sphere as the most critical because it is the source of real power in this country, and business ownership as the ultimate manifestation of economic liberation, this article examines black Americans’ business ownership and factors facilitating it. Defining successful business ownership in terms of: (1) increasing business formations by black Americans, (2) survival/longevity of the formed businesses, (3) their creation of jobs, and, (4) their profitability, this article identifies three factors facilitating it. The facilitating factor types are: (1) individual-specific, (2) group-specific, and (3) environment-consequent. It is suggested that the complex interaction of elements of these factors at any time, most likely determines the proportion of black ownership of American businesses.     

The Individual Life Cycle and Economic Growth: An Essay on Demographic Macroeconomics

We develop a demographic macroeconomic model that captures the salient life-cycle features at the individual level and, at the same time, allows us to pinpoint the main mechanisms at play at the aggregate level. At the individual level the model features both age-dependent mortality and productivity and allows for less-than-perfect annuity markets. At the aggregate level the model gives rise to single-sector endogenous growth and includes a Pay-As-You-Go pension system. We show that ageing generally promotes economic growth due to a strong savings response. Under a defined benefit system the growth effect is still positive but lower than under a defined contribution system. Surprisingly, we find that an increase in the retirement age dampens the economic growth expansion following a longevity shock.     

Responding to High Commodity Prices

The recent commodity price boom resulted from rising demand in the face of a long period of low supply growth and market distortions. Structural factors are expected to return international commodity prices to relatively high levels as the global economy recovers. The Asian and Pacific economies and the region's poor will be among the most exposed to a rebound in prices. The recent response to high commodity prices can be improved upon. At the global level, the priority for Asian and Pacific governments is to seek a commitment to lessening distortions favouring bio-fuels. At the regional level, there is a need to address the use of trade restrictions on food commodities in Asia, notably rice. At a national level, the long-term neglect of the rural economy warrants correction; and efforts to expand and make social safety nets more 'market friendly' are called for.     

Is Life Annuity an Effective Tool for Managing Longevity Risk in Korea?*

We examine optimal life annuity planning for Korean pre‐retirees with a focus on the optimal timing of annuitization. The objective is to maximize the expected total utility from consumption during the retirement period. Benchmark cases with various values for net wealth, proportion of net wealth that is annuitized at the time of retirement and level of risk aversion are applied. We confirm that life annuity is an effective tool for managing longevity risk in Korea and it is important to select the timing of annuitization carefully to maximize the expected total utility and to avoid unnecessary financial ruin during retirement. In addition, we find that the optimal annuity strategy is more beneficial for those with lower levels of wealth than others.     

创业企业家的道德特质——企业的长寿基因

近年来,与创业活动持续活跃并存的一个突出现实是我国企业、尤其是中小企业的寿命较短。企业的多生速死既是资源的巨大浪费,更会产生许多负面的连带效应。因此,如果企业在初创之时就能够注入长寿基因,让企业先天优生,无疑会对企业后续的健康成长、基业长青带来重大裨益。而企业家的道德特质无疑是企业最重要的长寿基因之一,应该在企业初创和成长中注入企业,从而使企业能够顺利初创、健康成长、基业长青。     

Collaborating with Competitors: How Do Small Firm Accounting Associations and Networks Successfully Manage Coopetitive Tensions?*

The “coopetition” paradox exists when two or more organizations are simultaneously involved in cooperative and competitive interactions. In the accounting industry, small firms encounter coopetition when they align themselves with other independent firms to form accounting associations and networks (AANs). AANs are a type of interorganizational relationship (IOR) that provide opportunities for member firms to collaborate by sharing important resources such as expertise, best practices, and manpower. However, member firms also compete in the marketplace for clients and human capital, which incentivizes uncooperative and opportunistic behavior. If managed inadequately, coopetitive tensions can significantly hamper AAN benefits and may lead to IOR failure. Given the considerable longevity of AANs, we interview 42 high‐level accounting professionals to understand AANs' apparent successful management of these tensions. Leveraging coopetition and IOR theory, our analysis suggests that transactional mechanisms (contractual agreements, organizational structure, selection/monitoring processes) and relational mechanisms (trust, social ties, reciprocity) play key roles in encouraging healthy cooperation and competition among member firms. One of our main conclusions is that these mechanisms contribute to AAN success because they are leveraged comprehensively across each IOR life cycle phase, and they are mutually reinforcing, with transactional mechanisms providing the foundation to inspire confidence and encourage the development of relational mechanisms. Our research enriches existing accounting and coopetition literature, provides a new perspective for AANs, and responds to calls to understand key factors of IOR success.     

Accessibility to microcredit by Chinese rural households

This paper examines the factors influencing the accessibility of microcredit by rural households in China. The empirical analysis utilises logistic regression, with data collected through a household survey carried out in one province in China. A total of twelve household-level factors are identified as determinants in households’ access to microcredit, including educational level, household size, income, among others. In addition to these, results indicate that rural households’ accessibility to microcredit can also be impaired by the supply-side factors (e.g., interest rates, loan processing time). The empirical analysis establishes a positive relationship between households’ credit demand and access to credit. The paper thus concludes that households should be encouraged to raise capital requirements (for example, create investment opportunities in on/off farm activities) to increase their demand for credit, which can enhance their access to microcredit. In addition, microcredit institutions (such as the Rural Credit Cooperatives) should improve their lending schemes and micro loan products to better suit the diversified needs of the rural population.     

Are people in the SADC region willing to pay more tax to fund public healthcare?

ABSTRACT

For Africa to develop and achieve sustainable development, African governments have to prioritise spending on public health. However, the current spending data shows that health spending is a continuing struggle for African countries. Many researchers have the view that African governments have to collect more tax to spend enough on public healthcare. The question here is what extent people are willing to pay more tax to increase spending on public healthcare? Employing a multilevel regression model on Afrobarometer survey data, this paper examined to what extent individual and country level factors influence people’s willingness to pay more tax to increase spending on public healthcare in 12 Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states. This study found that peoples’ trust in their government is an important determinant of willingness to pay more tax, while factors such as the country’s quality of democracy, economic condition, and current per capita health expenditure have no influence.     

Forecast of mortgage-lending development in Russia subject to socioeconomic factors

Trends observed in mortgage lending in Russia between 2005 and 2012 are discussed in the paper, as well as their correlation with changes in the unemployment rate, one of the major indicators of socioeconomic development. The analysis is carried out at two levels, national and regional. The nationwide analysis employed an approach developed to reconcile scenario-based forecasts of the development of mortgage lending with different scenarios of unemployment forecast. It is argued that, going forward, there is a possibility of a pessimistic scenario with growing unemployment and a slowdown of growth in the mortgage debt levels. The differences in the degree of correlation between mortgage and unemployment rate by the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as factors behind them, are discussed at the regional level.