供应商和客户参与对企业技术创新绩效的影响——考虑供应商和客户的议价能力

利用2009—2012年中国134家上市公司的面板数据进行回归分析,对拥有不同议价能力的供应商和客户如何影响企业技术创新绩效问题进行了研究。结果表明:客户议价能力的不断提高导致企业的技术创新绩效呈U型变化,且有助于减弱供应商议价能力的负向影响;与小企业相比,供应商的议价能力对大企业技术创新绩效的负向影响更大;与其他所有权性质的企业相比,国有企业的技术创新绩效受供应商议价能力的负向影响更小。     

主导零售商买方势力背景下的制造商技术创新决策

针对零售市场中大型零售组织买方势力不断增强的现象,研究了制造商的技术创新决策。在由上游垄断制造商、下游主导零售商和边缘零售商组成的纵向市场结构下,构建了四阶段的技术创新决策模型,提炼了主导零售商的谈判势力特征和市场份额特征,给出了主导零售商买方势力背景下制造商的最优创新决策,分析了主导零售商的谈判势力和市场份额对制造商技术创新决策的影响。最后通过具体算例探讨了参数变化对主要结论的影响,并据此提出了促进企业技术创新的建议。     

轴辐合谋、社会福利与所有制结构

本文考虑上游平台供应商和下游双寡头零售商进行信息合谋的轴辐合谋模型,探究所有制结构和议价能力对轴辐合谋的稳定性及社会福利的影响。研究发现,当供应商为民营时,轴辐合谋的稳定性随市场低需求概率的增加而增加,随零售商议价能力的提高而降低。轴辐合谋在合谋约束较紧且零售商的议价能力较高时,将有损社会福利;反之则反。公有供应商相比于民营供应商削弱轴辐合谋稳定性,但在合谋约束松紧程度适中时却较难形成福利优势。     

均值-标准差控制下的供应链渠道Stackelberg模型

本文研究了在均值-标准差方法控制下的一个具有风险偏好(风险规避、风险中性、风险喜好)零售商与两个风险中性供应商之间供应链渠道协作和竞争。首先,在考虑零售商风险偏好下,提出了供应商联盟与非联盟两种情况中的各方处于Stackelberg-leader或Stackelberg-follower不同权利地位时各决策模式及其对应决策模型;然后,通过对比分析各决策模式最优解及深入分析零售商风险偏好对各渠道成员最优决策影响,得到了基于零售商风险偏好下的供应链渠道各成员的领导者地位将较大影响各方期望效用,而对供应链渠道整体期望效用最大化并无影响,同时,零售商过度喜好风险或者规避风险都将会对供应链整体期望效用造成致命伤害;最后,通过数值分析进一步验证了前面结论。     

基于Nash讨价还价的供应链系统协调对策研究

为了实现零售商主导型供应链协调,笔者通过引入价格敏感性和服务敏感性双元影响因素,分别在分散决策与集中决策两种不同情形下,研究大型零售商的最优服务水平和定价策略.笔者运用Nash讨价还价模型,建立收益共享机制,得到能够实现供应链完美共赢协调的讨价还价能力参数变化区间值,实现了对供应链总利润增加值的合理分配,并提出了供应链协调的有效对策.     

营销渠道中公平、信任、承诺之间的关系——基于供零关系的实证研究

在大型零售商日益强势的背景下,渠道公平性对渠道关系的影响十分关键。本文从供应商的角度出发,就供应商感知的大型零售商渠道公平性对供应商信任与承诺关系的影响进行了实证研究。结果发现,渠道成员感知的渠道公平性是一个多维概念,由与决策结果有关的分配公平性、与决策程序有关的程序公平性以及与程序制定与结果传送时人际间行为有关的互动公平性构成,三维度的渠道公平性结构比两维度（分配公平性及程序公平性）的渠道公平性结构具有更强的解释力。在渠道公平性对渠道关系的影响方面,研究表明,分配公平性对供应商承诺有显著的正向影响,程序公平性对组织间信任有显著的正向影响,互动公平性则对人际信任有显著的正向影响。此外,研究还发现,组织间信任和人际信任对供应商承诺有显著正向影响。这些研究结论具有重要的理论意义和管理意涵。     

供应链中商业信用与订货批量协调决策

文章基于供应商提供的不同商业信用策略假设,研究了由单一供应商和单一零售商构成的二级供应链中的联合批量决策问题。文章在对现有文献进行分析和梳理的基础上,将商业信用期长度作为决策变量,并考虑每循环周期供应商可能按照零售商订货量的整数倍放大采购的情形,构建出供应商不同商业信用策略下供应商和零售商的最优批量决策模型和供应链综合成本决策模型,并给出了供应链成本节约的收益分配方案。结果表明,与不提供商业信用激励相比,供应商提供商业信用激励时零售商的订购批量会更高,供应链的综合成本也更低。考虑到供应链联合决策中可能出现的收益不均衡问题,文章提出针对供应链协同带来的成本节约,按供应商与零售商投入存货成本比例进行分配的收益共享决策方案。最后,文章通过算例验证了模型和算法的有效性。     

家庭内部议价能力研究进展

随着新古典理论框架下共享一致偏好和预算约束的单一模型逐步向更为可靠的纳什家庭议价模型转变，区分家庭成员偏好的异质性议价能力作为解释家庭经济行为和决策的核心要素，成为家庭经济学领域的研究热点。本文从家庭内部议价能力的内涵界定、测度体系、影响因素及经济效应四个方面对代表性文献进行归纳述评，认为个体特征、家庭结构、社会制度等是影响家庭议价能力的重要因素。同时，议价能力对家庭内部婚姻、金融、就业、生育、消费等家庭决策，以及对后代抚育、女性自主权利、主观感受等社会福利因素都将产生重要影响。最后，本文围绕该领域的研究不足和可供拓展的方向进行了阐述，以期为全面把握家庭内部议价能力问题提供有益借鉴。     

通道费对零售商和供应商的影响及衍生推论——基于“本-量-利”模型的分析

通道费对零售商和供应商的行为均有重要影响。文章将通道费区分为通道接入费和通道使用费两种,借助"本-量-利"模型分析了通道费对供应商和零售商的影响,研究表明零售商收取通道费使供应商盈亏平衡点发生了变化,改变了供应商所处行业各企业的市场地位和利润分配,改善了供应商的渠道效率,促进了其他渠道的健康发展,同时通道费也加快了零售商的发展速度。     

信息不对称下数量折扣和返回措施对三层供应链的协调

文章研究了信息不对称下三层供应链的协调订购问题,即随机需求下供应商、制造商、零售商追求利润最大化问题。首先建立供应商、制造商、零售商三者互不合作分散决策的利润模型及三者在供应链下集中决策模型和采用数量折扣与返回措施完全合作下集中决策的利润模型,并给出三种情况下零售商的最优订购量的一般通式,得出采用数量折扣和返回措施契约措施时供应链的利润最大;其次得出制造商和零售商批发价格和利润与各自的目标利润率有关的;最后通过需求服从均匀分布和正态分布的实例验证了供应商-制造商-零售商在采用数量折扣和返回措施三者完全合作时供应链上的利润最大。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.