中国股票市场的渐进有效性研究

本文研究了中国股市是否弱式有效。不同于传统的检验方法 ,本文的实证分析运用了特别适合于转轨经济体中新兴股市的渐进有效性检验 ,该方法采用时变系数的AR( 2 )自回归模型 ,同时考虑到“波动集群”的异方差影响 ,更能清晰地反映出市场有效性的动态演进过程。加之分年度检验的结果 ,我们有把握认定中国股市从 1 997年开始呈现弱式有效。     

对我国证券市场有效性的检验

西方有效理论按信息集的不同类型,将市场效率分为强式,中强式、弱式三种。检验弱式市场的方法包括随机游走“、”过滤检验“等;检验中强式市场的方法包括对交易策略、市场过度反应、专业投资者业绩等方面的检验,而关于强式市场的检验方法尚不成熟,关于中国证券市场有效性经验检验,大部分人认为尚未达到中绐式有效,但对是否达到弱式有效分歧较大。因为除了检验方法本身存在的问题。中国证券市场有效性的检验还受制于一些特殊因     

中国证券市场有效性的检验研究

有效市场理论（简称EMH）是现代证券市场理论体系的主要支柱之一,也是现代金融经济学理论体系的一个重要基石。许多金融学投资理论都是建立在EMH的基础之上,EMH保证了这些金融理论的适用性,因此对EMH的讨论是最广泛的。在中国证券市场开展以来,证券市场是否达到弱式有效便成为了理论界热讨的重要课题。由于股价指数时间序列的单位检验能够满足鞅假设的要求,故较之随机游走检验对股票市场弱式有效性的验证更具合理性。采用单位根检验的方法对中国股市开展以来的数据进行研究,其结果显示,中国证券市场已达到弱式有效,并不断增强趋势。     

上海股票市场弱有效性的实证检验

股票市场的信息效率对于合理配置收益和风险起到关键作用,因此对于中国股票市场有效性的检验显得至关重要。运用ADF检验和游程检验对上证A股指数及收益率进行检验,结果显示上海股票市场已经达到弱式有效。     

上海证券市场弱式有效性的统计检验

有效市场假说是现代金融理论中最重要也是最有争议的概念之一,其中研究最多、争议最大的是市场的弱式有效性。本文运用上证综合指数（2003年1月2日-2006年12月29日）日数据,对上海证券市场的弱式有效性进行了三种统计检验,序列相关性检验、单位根检验和随机游程检验,单位根检验得出上海证券市场尚未达到弱式有效,然而序列相关性检验和随机游程检验的结果显示上海证券市场已经达到弱式有效,由于单位根检验的必要而非充分性,本文认为可以认为上海证券市场已基本上达到弱式有效。     

上海股市有效性与可预测性并存的实证研究

选取上证日收盘价综合指数（1997／01／02－2001／05／30）作为样本,对上海股市的有效性与可预测性分别建立模型进行验证和分析：利用时间序列相关性分析和随机游程模型对上海股市的弱有效性进行检验;建立AR模型验证上海股市的可预测性。通过检验发现,上海股市既通过了弱有效性的检验,又通过了AR模型的验证,即是一个可预测的弱式有效市场。     

中国股市弱有效性分析

一、引言 上世纪90年代我国学者开始对中国股市弱有效性进行研究。吴世农(1994)以12种股票及上证综合指数为样本，对收盘价格序列进行自相关分析．结果表明样本时间序列与滞后1或5日的序列存在显著关系，从而认为上海市场不具有弱有效性。俞乔(1994)使用序列相关和游程检验以及非参数检验，研究结果显示收益率之间存在序列相关，因此认为中国股市还没有达到弱有效。     

中国碳交易二级市场有效性研究

选取北京、上海、广东、湖北碳交易市场自成立至2017年3月31日的收盘价数据,通过对日收益序列数据的分析,运用一阶自回归过程调整日收益序列以消除淡薄交易市场效应,之后综合运用检验性逐渐增强的4个方差比检验,判断4个碳交易市场的弱式有效性。研究结果表明：①国内碳交易市场属于淡薄交易市场;②市场中的价格信息堆积,信息透明度较差;③碳交易市场投资风险较大;④碳配额持有期不同,市场有效性具有差异,且具有阶段性特点;⑤北京碳交易二级市场属于弱式无效市场,上海、广东碳交易市场虽属于弱式无效市场,但随着碳额持有期增加,市场的弱式有效不断加强,湖北碳交易已经达到了弱式有效水平。最后,基于研究结论对如何加强中国碳交易二级市场有效性提出4点建议。     

对SHIBOR作为我国货币市场基准利率的有效性检验

SHIBOR是我国正在培育和发展的基准利率。本文根据国际通行的基准利率标准,运用SHIBOR运行以来的数据,采取理论分析和实证检验的方法,从市场性、基础性、稳定性、可控性、相关性五个方面,对其作为我国货币市场基准利率的有效性进行了全面系统地检验。结果表明,SHIBOR可初步作为基准利率,但有效性偏弱。并提出了改进建议。     

中国股市弱式有效研究综述

中国股市有效性的检验主要集中在是否具有弱式有效,采用所谓的随机游走或（和）AR模型做检验,由1993年以前的研究数据得出的结论是非有效市场,但此后的研究大多支持弱式有效,的年来,一些国内学者对实证检验支持中国股市弱式有效提出异议,并选用ARCH模型族以改进估计效果,检验异常现象、过度反应等其它方面的问题,得出了不同的结论;或者模棱两可,不敢从实证结果肯定地得出与经验判断相反的结论。从理论上正确理解弱式有效,并采用广义谱域分析或小波分析,可以得出肯定而明确的结论。     

Information and housing search: theory and evidence from China market

Asymmetric market information plays a role in households’ housing choice. To study this role, we theoretically and empirically examine the varied behaviours between better-informed and less-informed households in a housing market. The housing search model theoretically predicts that better-informed households are more likely to secure a better deal. With the data from Tianjin in China, hedonic models are calibrated to quantify the impacts of asymmetric information on housing search outcomes. The results show that the less-informed homebuyers need to pay around 1~2.3% more than those better-informed homebuyers after controlling the heterogeneity of housing units, which are consistent with the theoretical predictions. It suggests that policies and institutions to alleviate asymmetric information in housing market could improve the welfare of households.     

房产税与投机泡沫——基于天津的实证研究

The main purpose of this paper is to identify and measure the potential effect of property tax on speculative bubble in residential property market in China where the issue on the introduction of property tax is still fiercely debated. As a primary and necessary step, we firstly provide an empirical analysis on housing price dynamics of Tianjin. Moreover, this paper proposes a method to identify and measure the potential effect of property tax on speculative bubble in housing market. To capture the actual influence of property tax, we divide the effect into short-term one and long-term one and measure them respectively based on the information provided by estimation result of housing price structure.      

Speculative behavior in a housing market: Boom and bust

We study a housing market with household buyers, speculative investors and property developers in a Walrasian scenario. We show that in addition to the factors that affect the real demand of household buyers and the development cost of property developers, investors' speculative behavior is an important factor explaining housing price evolution and dynamics. In particular, investors' extrapolative expectations may drive the housing price to persistently deviate from its benchmark value and even to explode. In contrast, investors' mean-reverting strategy can balance out the position of trend extrapolators, which may stabilize an otherwise explosive housing market. Moreover, the evolutionary process of housing prices driven by investors' speculative behavior is path-dependent in the sense that different initial market conditions may result in different price paths, which corresponds to the localization property empirically documented in the real housing market. In addition, within the stylized model, we provide some policy implications through analyzing the limitation and effectiveness of policy adjustments via down payment and development cost, and find that the decrease of development cost is a better measure to adjust the housing market when it booms or busts.     

我国货币政策的实效分析

本文运用希克斯－汉森模型作为基本分析工具,采用实证计量分析手段,对我国改革 开放以来的ＭＰＣ、ＭＰＳ及居民实物储蓄、货币储蓄和金融储蓄数据进行分析,将其纳入希克斯 －汉森模型,作出ＩＳ曲线陡峭, ＬＭ曲线平缓的现实模拟模型,由此分析得出我国近几年来货 币政策尤其是自１９９８年以来货币政策效果微弱的结论 。笔者列举了货币政策微弱的原因：没有 一个足以发挥政策的场地,资本市场非市场化,各行为人不能平等进入资本市场,从而导致利 率扭曲和贷款不真实,及Ｓ不能及时转化为Ｉ,造成严重的投资需求不足。解决的办法是：短 期内,加大投资,将Ｓ转化为Ⅰ,它将比刺激消费更有效。长期内,将资本推向市场,使货币 政策真正发挥作用。     

Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?

The speculative nature of both stock and housing markets in China has attracted the attention of observers. However, while stock market data are easily available, the low frequency and low quality of publicly available housing price data hampers the study of the relationship between the two markets. We use original hedonic weekly resale housing prices of a major Chinese housing market and study them in conjunction with Shanghai's stock market index in the second half of the 2000s. The use of the Phillips et al. (2015 a,b) recursive explosive‐root test enables us to detect and date speculative episodes in both markets. We then implement the Greenaway‐McGrevy and Phillips (2016) methodology to detect the presence of migration between the two types of bubbles. We detect significant migration from the stock to the housing market bubble in 2009 and a temporary spillover in 2007.     

调控从紧:打破房价调控僵局的现实选择

2011年10～11月我国房价涨幅出现回落迹象,但房价调控依然处于僵局状态,仍需坚持调控从紧政策。打破房价调控僵局、控制房价涨速过快的根本办法是增加住房的有效供给,而多方面的不利因素进一步弱化了本来在短期内就比较脆弱的住房供给弹性,需要通过加强调控以保障住房有效供给的增加。增加住房供给、缓解保障性住房供给压力的从紧调控政策措施,不应拘泥于市场化措施,而应适当加大策略性政府干预措施的比重,促进房价合理回归和房地产市场健康发展。     

Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies

In this paper, we analyze the implications of macroprudential and monetary policies for credit cycles, housing market stability and spillovers to consumption. We consider a countercyclical loan‐to‐value (LTV) policy that responds to a credit‐to‐income ratio, and we compare its effectiveness with a permanent tightening of the LTV ratio and a monetary policy rule that responds to credit. To this end, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with housing market, household debt and collateral constraints, and we estimate it with Canadian data using Bayesian methods. Our study suggests that a countercyclical LTV ratio is a useful policy to reduce spillovers from the housing market into consumption and to lean against housing market boom–bust cycles. It performs better than the permanent tightening of the LTV ratio—a policy that has been used in a number of countries—and the monetary policy rule, both in terms of the stabilization of household indebtedness and spillovers into consumption. Monetary policy that leans against the wind is the least desirable due to its large adverse consequences on the real economy.     

House price dynamics,conditional higher-order moments,and density forecasts

Most studies on housing price dynamics are only concerned with the conditional mean and variance, but overlook other higher-order conditional moments and the structural change characteristics inherent in housing prices. In order to take into account these two important issues, this study utilizes the generalized Markov switching GARCH model to explore house price dynamics and conditional distribution for US market over 1975Q1–2007Q4. The housing return follows two distinct dynamics: the bust regime and the boom regime. The volatility pattern is different in the bust and boom regimes. In addition, the conditional densities derived by the regime-switching model change dramatically over time and are significantly different from normal distribution. More importantly, the regime-switching model can detect in advance a weak US housing market such as the one that occurred in the middle of 2007. The in-sample fitting ability of regime-switching model, which incorporates higher-order moments, has significant improvements compared to the single-regime AR and AR-GARCH models. For the out-of-sample Value-at-Risk forecasting performance, the ability of regime-switching AR-GARCH model to forecast one-step-ahead density is better compared to the single-regime AR-GARCH model.     

服务外包示范城市政府作用的有效性:一项经验研究

笔者通过对2009年19个服务外包示范城市相关数据的收集与整理,研究了服务外包示范城市政府支持作用的有效性.研究结果表明:政府对服务外包的支持行为是有效的,其中上海、深圳、苏州、无锡、南京5个城市有效性非常显著,其他14个城市的显著性相对较弱.对显著性较弱的城市,文章进一步采用了“投影”变换分析方法对其进行了分析.分析结果揭示了政府作用显著性较差的原因及其可进行调整的方向.