Cross-country output convergence and growth: Evidence from varying coefficient nonparametric method

This article uses a nonparametric varying coefficient panel data model to study the convergence of real GDP per capita among 120 world economies for the sample period of 1980–2010. The estimates show that the indirect contribution of initial income via the control variables is important. The mediating effect of control variables to affect growth is positive. The conditional speed of convergence is larger than the absolute counterpart at all levels of initial income. The convergence hypothesis does not hold for economies with extremely low level of development. The conclusion is robust for regional subsamples of Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa.     

Do Multinational Enterprises Contribute to Convergence or Divergence? A Disaggregated Analysis of US FDI*

It is widely held that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we perform convergence regressions derived from a theoretical model on the impact of FDI on endogenous technological change in small economies. The model includes FDI externalities that enhance growth, but also shows that FDI can crowd out host country income and reduce local innovation. The empirical analysis employs disaggregated US data for various FDI‐related activities—in addition to the conventionally used aggregate FDI stocks and flows. We estimate the net FDI impact on the convergence rate of per‐capita income to US levels, controlling for human development, financial development, and trade. We find that FDI accelerates convergence for high‐income countries only, otherwise slowing it down.     

Resource abundance and economic growth in the United States

It is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady-state income levels. The so-called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions. Empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for US states, but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth. We find that natural resource abundance decreases investment, schooling, openness, and R&D expenditure and increases corruption, and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth.     

Real Convergence and European Integration: The Experience of the Less Developed EU Members

This study aims at providing an assessment about real convergence across countriesand regions in the EU, focusing more specifically on the four cohesion EU members.The results show that in the course of the last few years a process of convergence hastaken place between the per capita income levels of the EU regions and also, to a largerextent, of the Member States. Nevertheless, advances in real convergence are largelydetermined by the growth strategy implemented by the countries themselves. Lastly,our study suggests that the Community's regional policy has played a significant rolein favor of real convergence between the Member States of the EU. One importantlesson to be drawn is that the accession is likely to contribute significantly to improvingthe possibilities of the current Central and East European countries (CEECs) candidatesin aligning their per capita income levels with those of the EU members.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

Disparities in Australian Regional Incomes: Are They Widening or Narrowing?

In this study we examine Australian census data on regional incomes for the period 1976–91. Following a discussion of theories and empirical evidence regarding regional income adjustment, the regional dispersion of per capita income is analysed for the six Australian states and at the sub-state level (statistical divisions, SDs). The coefficient of variation is used as the measure of dispersion, and Gini coefficients are also calculated to analyse income equality within regions. For Australia, the cross-state dispersion of per capita incomes increased over the period, whereas there was neither convergence nor divergence of incomes among Australia's 57 SDs. In addition, the intrastate dispersion of per capita incomes across SDs remained largely unaltered over the period. Gini coefficients indicated that across income strata, the distribution of incomes both within states and within SDs has become more equal.     

Income distribution dynamics across European regions: Re-examining the role of space

This paper is aimed at exploring the role played by space on the dynamics of regional per capita income disparities in Europe between 1980 and 2005. To do that, an analysis based on the so-called distribution dynamics approach is used as benchmark. Therefore, the external shape of the per capita income distribution and movements within it are examined using both continuous and discrete techniques. This first approach reveals that regional disparities across European regions have decreased over time and, based on the computation of a mobility index, also highlights the existence of a medium mobility degree within the distribution. Subsequently, a spatially conditioned distribution dynamics approach is developed to adequately assess the spatial dimension of the convergence process. In this new approach per capita income of each region is doubly conditioned on its per capita income and the per capita income of its neighbours, both in a previous period. Additionally, a novel mobility index on the basis of a spatial Markov chains approach is devised. The results illustrate the importance of geography in explaining regional per capita income evolution; in particular it is shown that poor regions surrounded by rich regions have a much higher probability of escaping the poverty trap than other poor regions.     

Convergence of international output Time series evidence for 16 OECD countries

This article examines convergence of per capita output for 16 OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. Conventional tests on conditional and time series convergence have given mixed results for similar economies. Utilizing the concepts of deterministic and stochastic convergence, we develop techniques which incorporate endogenously determined break points to test the unit root hypothesis in relative per capita income. The tests provide evidence of deterministic convergence for 10, and stochastic convergence for 14, of the 16 OECD countries. Our findings reveal that World War II is the major cause of the structural shifts in relative output.     

NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMPTION

Abstract.  The neoclassical growth model is used to compare an economy with growing per capita income with an economy with stationary per capita income, in terms of equity in distribution of consumption. The economies have the same initial conditions including the same initial wealth distribution. The outcome of the comparison depends on the nature of structural differences between the economies. Even with convergence in wealth distribution in the growing economy, the consumption distribution there may be less equitable and dynasties with least initial levels of wealth may be worse off than dynasties with same initial wealth levels in the stationary economy.     

TEST OF THE CONVERGENCE HYPOTHESIS ALLOWING FOR CROSS‐SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

A large empirical literature has investigated whether per capita output converges around a common trend across national and regional economies. The methods used in this literature assume no cross‐sectional dependence even though it is likely to be present and might be important in practice. Chang has devised a promising method of testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels with cross‐sectional dependence. We apply her method to test whether convergence takes place across three samples of economies: 15 advanced industrial countries; a broader group of 57 countries; and the 48 contiguous US states. We find evidence of convergence for the 15 advanced industrial economies but no evidence of convergence across either the broad group of countries or the US states.     

The brain drain and the world distribution of income

Skilled emigration (or brain drain) from developing to developed countries is becoming the dominant pattern of international migration today. Such migration is likely to affect the world distribution of income both directly, through the mobility of people, and indirectly, as the prospect of migration affects the rate of return to education in both the sending and receiving economies. This migration pattern will therefore affect human capital accumulation and fertility decisions in both the sending and receiving economies. This paper analyzes these effects in a dynamic two country model of the world economy where agents in both countries make optimal fertility and human capital decisions. The implications of the analysis for the world distribution of income are derived in the light of recent empirical findings of the brain drain literature. The analysis shows that the current trend towards predominantly skilled emigration from poor to rich countries may in the long run increase inequality in the world distribution of income as relatively poor countries grow large in terms of population. In the short run however, it is possible for world inequality to fall due to rises in GDP per capita in large developing economies with sufficiently low skilled emigration rates.     

Testing convergence of European regions: A semiparametric approach

We provide a reappraisal of income convergence across European regions over the last two decades by using a semiparametric partially linear model to approximate the relationship between the average growth rate of GDP per capita and the initial GDP per capita. Estimation results point out both country heterogeneity and non-linearity in the convergence process. The findings suggest that low income regions, in particular those from new adhesion countries, diverge while medium income regions converge and that there is no evidence of convergence for high income regions.     

Technology,convergence, and growth in the European Union

This paper contains an empirical analysis of growth and convergence in the European Union using a cross-country data set covering the period 1950–92. It seeks an answer to the question why some countries in Europe manage to catch up, while others, most notably the poorest ones, apparently do not. The empirical evidence provided in the paper points to several responsible factors. The distance of the economy to the technological leader differed across economies, which contributed to differences in convergence and growth behavior. In addition, the finding of conditional convergence implies that economies converge to different steady state levels of income per capita. Poor economies, like Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland, presumably converge to a lower steady state level of income per capita, which leads to persistent differences in income per capita. Funding for this project was provided in part by the Securities Industry Foundation for Economic Education, the Council on Economic Education in Maryland, and the Towson State University Faculty Development and Research Committee.     

Migration and regional convergence in the European Union

We offer an empirical, econometric analysis of the impact of migration on the EU27’s NUTS2 regions in the period 2000–2007. We find that migration had no significant impact on regional unemployment in the EU, but affected both GDP per capita and productivity. A 1 percentage point increase in immigration to immigration regions increased GDP per capita by about 0.02?% and productivity by about 0.03?% on impact and by 0.44?% for GDP per capita and 0.20?% for productivity in the long run. For emigration regions an increase in the emigration rate leads to similar reductions of GDP per capita and productivity both on impact and in the long run. Since immigration regions are often regions with above average GDP, while emigration regions in Europe practically all have below average GDP, migration does not seem to promote convergence.     

Re-examination of convergence hypothesis among Indian states in panel stationarity testing framework with structural breaks

This article examines the conditional income convergence hypothesis for 17 major states in India for the period of 1960–2012. Univariate stationarity tests without structural breaks provide evidence against the convergence hypothesis. However, when two or more structural breaks are applied in per capita income series, the incomes of around 11–13 states are found to stochastically converge to the national average. This finding supports the convergence hypothesis for the panel as a whole after accounting for two data features, cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks in incomes, using a unified panel stationarity testing framework.     

Geography,geopolitics, and policy in the performance of transition economies

The economic performance of the transition economies as of 2015 is well explained by three variables: (1) years of membership in the EU; (2) physical distance from the heart of the EU economy, taken to be Dusseldorf; and (3) annual revenues from oil and gas production, reflecting natural resource deposits. These three factors account for around 86 percent of the variation in per capita income across the 28 transition economies, and reflect the interplay of domestic policy, geopolitics, geography and natural resources.     

On the Dynamics of Basic Growth Models: Ratio Stability vs. Convergence and Divergence in State Space

Abstract. We show for a class of basic growth models that convergence in ratios does not imply the pathwise convergence to the corresponding balanced growth path in the state space. We derive conditions on parameters and on the elasticity of the savings function for convergence or divergence and apply our results to the Solow model, an augmented Solow model as well as to an optimal growth model. An implication for the convergence debate is that two economies that differ only in the initial capital stock and converge in per capita terms might diverge to infinity in absolute terms.     

Convergence and catching up in ASEAN: a comparative analysis

The increasing diversity of average growth rates and income levels across countries has generated a large literature on testing the income convergence hypothesis. Most countries in South-East Asia, particularly the five founding ASEAN member countries (ASEAN-5), have experienced substantial economic growth, with the pace of growth having varied substantially across countries. Recent empirical studies have found evidence of several convergence clubs, in which per capita incomes have converged for selected groupings of countries and regions. This paper applies different time series tests of convergence to determine if there is a convergence club for ASEAN-5, as well as ASEAN-5 and the USA. The catching up hypothesis states that the lagging country, with low initial income and productivity levels, will tend to grow more rapidly by copying the technology of the leader country, without having to bear the associated costs of research and development. Given the important effects of technological change on growth, this paper also examines whether ASEAN-5 is catching up technologically with the USA.     

Convergence,divergence, or multiple steady states? New evidence on the institutional development within the European Union

Convergence in institutions and in per capita income across the European Union (EU) Member States are key goals of the European integrations process. Especially in the course of the various EU enlargement waves starting in 2004, it was intensively discussed whether institutional and structural homogeneity are necessary preconditions for real convergence and the smooth functioning of the EU or whether a (further) catching up in the institutional and economic development will endogenously occur after the EU accession. Our paper is dedicated to the analysis of these institutional dynamics within the EU. In particular, we analyze the formation of institutional convergence clusters using Phillips and Sul's (2007, 2009) log t-test over the period 2002 to 2018. Our results indicate the existence of multiple institutional clubs with various countries being stuck in a poor institutional trap. Moreover, we find that institutional convergence clubs are formed mainly on the basis of geographic region; in particular, we identify a northwest-southeast divide. When analyzing per capita income clubs, a rather similar picture emerges, suggesting that the underlying institutional clusters might drive the formation of income clubs. We also study the factors that determine institutional club membership by using an ordered probit model. Most importantly, we find that the initial levels of human capital and institutional quality are decisive for determining whether a country is on a high or low institutional growth path.     

Information Technology and the World Economy*

This paper addresses the impact of investment in information technology (IT) on the recent resurgence of world economic growth. We describe the growth of the world economy, seven regions and 14 major economies during the period 1989–2003. We allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity and find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! The contributions of IT investment have increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. Differences in per capita output are explained by differences in per capita input, rather than by variations in productivity.