AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish economy

A computable general equilibrium model with specific detail in taxation and energy use is developed in this paper to quantify the impact of the implementation of energy taxation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland. Benchmark data combining physical energy and emissions data and economic data in the form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) had to be compiled from various data sources, because energy and pollution accounts from the SEEA are not available for Ireland. We find that the reduction target for energy related CO₂ emissions in Ireland of 25.8% compared to 1998 levels can be achieved with a carbon energy tax of 10-15 euros per tonne of CO₂. Though fuel switching is important in meeting the target, this result is more sensitive to the possibilities for producers to substitute away from energy use. Welfare would fall but only by small percentages. Production and consumption patterns would change more significantly, with a shift in demand from fuels with a high emission factor to energy sources with a lower carbon-intensity and from energy to other commodities. This paper confirms that a carbon energy tax leads to greater emission reductions than an equivalent uniform energy tax. The latter has a stronger negative impact on the less polluting energy sectors whereas the carbon tax greatly stimulates the use of renewable energy and reduces the use of peat and coal. The new SAM, the model and the application to energy taxes contribute to a better informed debate on environmental policy in Ireland.     

The effectiveness of anti-leakage policies in the European Union: results for Austria

With the third trading period of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) starting in 2013, the system of allocating emission allowances will significantly change: In contrast to the previous two trading periods, auctioning of the allowances should now be the rule rather than the exception. Accompanying this policy change, concerns over competitiveness of energy intensive, trade exposed sectors as well as over limited environmental effectiveness via the channel of carbon leakage, have regained prominence. In this paper, we thus explore the impacts of potential EU policies to counter losses in international competitiveness and carbon leakage from the perspective of Austria. Based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate three policy options: an input subsidy for carbon allowances (thus reflecting the planned partially free allocation mechanism in the third EU ETS phase), a subsidy for domestic production, and an export rebate based on sectoral CO₂ costs. Our results show that each policy has the potential to support domestic production in exposed sectors relative to a full auctioning scenario and thus increase competitiveness. However, none is imperatively effective at reducing Austria’s net carbon emissions: while the carbon trade balance is improved and hence leakage declines, the tradability of emission permits within the EU ETS allows CO₂ emissions from Austria’s ETS output to increase. A cost benefit analysis indicates that the two policies promoting domestic output and exports are more cost effective than the CO₂ input subsidy.     

CO2-Stabilization May Be a 'No-Regrets' Policy

Restricting CO₂ emissions requires changing today's consumption pattern away from energy and emission intensive commodities towards cleaner goods. The cost of stabilizing CO₂ emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000, say, as compared to a business-as-usual trend, is estimated by several researchers to be on the order of 1% of GNP. We will argue that the cost may be overestimated because of a too simple model describing the working of the economic system and the evaluation of welfare. We demonstrate that by expanding a model to include the actual tax system and negative externalities, the cost to present generations from restricting emissions by a CO₂ tax may be negative. That is, some reduction may actually correspond to a 'no-regrets' policy. The reasons are inefficiencies in today's tax system and non-optimal handling of negative externalities. Our analysis suggests that a CO₂ tax and reduced emissions will lessen such inefficiencies.     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.     

Economic Impacts of the 1997 EU Energy Tax: Simulations with Three EU-Wide Models

In March 1997 the European Commission adopted aproposal that increases existing minimum levels oftaxation on mineral oils by around 10 to 25% andintroduces excises for other energy products. Thispaper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of theproposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, andE3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will havepositive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenuesare used to reduce social security contributions paidby employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP andemployment are expected to be higher and CO₂emissions are 0.9 to 1.6 percent lower. The positiveEU-wide effects can be observed in practically allmember states. The sector impacts are modest, with theenergy sector expected to face the most negativeimpacts. Differences between model results are due tothe model type (general equilibrium ormacro-econometric), the EU countries covered and theway tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptionsto obtain the ``double dividend' are the modelling ofthe labour market and the impacts on EU externaltrade. The sensitivity of the results for the use oftax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases isassessed.     

The Proposals for a European Tax on CO2 and Their Implications for Intercountry Distribution

This paper analyzes the advantages andimplications of the implementation of aEuropean tax on carbon dioxide emissions as anown resource of the EU and it focuses on itseffects on intercountry distribution. Incontrast to a harmonized tax, which would onlyhave distributive effects within each memberstate, a tax collected at European scale wouldalso have important distributive effects amongdifferent countries. These effects would alsodepend on the use of tax revenues. The paperinvestigates through a simple empiricalanalysis the distributive effects among themember states of three tax models: a pureCO₂ model; a 50%/50% energy-CO₂model and a CO₂ model with a burden onnuclear power.     

Implications of incorporating domestic margins into analyses of energy taxation and climate change policies

In most applied general equilibrium (AGE) analyses, the domestic transportation, wholesaling, and retailing services that facilitate the flow of goods and services from producers to consumers are not identified by commodity or use. Because the margins on energy commodities can be substantial, ignoring these domestic margins has important consequences when analyzing the impacts of policies designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. This paper incorporates domestic trade and transport margins into the GTAP-E model, which has previously been used to analyze climate change policies. Models that do not explicitly incorporate domestic margins over-estimate the reduction in CO₂ emissions from a given carbon tax or under-estimate the level of a carbon tax needed to achieve a specific abatement target when domestic margins are fixed or when the carbon tax is treated as a consumption tax with variable domestic margins. However, this result can be reversed when the carbon tax is treated as an output tax with variable domestic margins.     

The (Non‐)Equivalence of Input and Output Taxes Under Monopoly

The author argues that a government taxing a polluting monopoly by means of levies on output and inputs can implement the first‐best allocation through a continuum of tax profiles. Using this degree of freedom in the tax system, the government is, in general, able to transfer income from the firm to the public sector, so that the additional tax rate acts as a non‐distorting tax on profits. This transfer – and therefore public revenue – is the higher, the lower (higher) the input taxes are, and correspondingly the higher (lower) the output tax is, provided that the production function exhibits decreasing (increasing) returns to scale.     

International Transport of Captured \hbox {CO}_2: Who Can Gain and How Much?

If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is to become a viable option for low-carbon power generation, its deployment will require the construction of dedicated CO₂ transport infrastructure. In a scenario of large-scale deployment of CCS in Europe by 2050, the optimal (cost-minimising) CO₂ transport network would consist of large international bulk pipelines from the main CO₂ source regions to the CO₂ sinks in hydrocarbon fields and saline aquifers, which are mostly located in the North Sea. In this paper, we use a Shapley value approach to analyse the multilateral negotiation process that would be required to develop such jointly optimised CO₂ infrastructure. First, we find that countries with excess storage capacity capture 38–45 % of the benefits of multilateral coordination, implying that the resource rent of a depleted hydrocarbon field (when used for CO₂ storage) is roughly $${\$}1$$ per barrel of original recoverable oil reserves, or $${\$}2$$ per boe (barrel of oil equivalent) of original recoverable gas reserves. This adds 25–600 % to current estimates of CO₂ storage cost. Second, countries with a strategic transit location capture 19 % of the rent in the case of national pipeline monopolies. Liberalisation of CO₂ pipeline construction at EU level could eliminate the transit rent and is shown to reduce by two-thirds the differences between countries in terms of cost per tonne of CO₂ exported. Reaching agreement on such liberalisation may be politically challenging, since the payoffs are shown to be strongly divergent across countries.     

Why the European Union Should Adopt Formula Apportionment with a Sales Factor*

Using a two‐country tax competition model with a multinational enterprise (MNE), this paper addresses the question of whether the European Union should replace separate accounting (SA) in corporate income taxation by formula apportionment (FA) and, if so, which apportionment factors should be used. Our main result is that FA with a sales factor may mitigate or even eliminate fiscal externalities caused by the countries' tax policy. Hence, our analysis provides a microfoundation for the sales apportionment factor. In an empirical calibration to the EU‐15 we show that the transition from SA to FA with a sales‐only formula raises average tax rates by 2% and average tax revenues by 1 billion euros or 0.1% of GDP. These effects result in an increase of welfare.     

Co-optimization of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration

In this paper, we present an economic analysis of CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (EOR). This technique entails injection of CO₂ into mature oil fields in a manner that reduces the oil's viscosity, thereby enhancing the rate of extraction. As part of this process, significant quantities of CO₂ remain sequestered in the reservoir. If CO₂ emissions are regulated, oil producers using EOR should therefore be able to earn revenues from sequestration as well as from oil production. We develop a theoretical framework that analyzes the dynamic co-optimization of oil extraction and CO₂ sequestration, through the producer's choice of the fraction of CO₂ in the injection stream at each moment. We find that the optimal fraction of CO₂ is likely to decline monotonically over time, and reach zero before the optimal termination time. Numerical simulations, based on an ongoing EOR project in Wyoming, confirm this result. We also find that cumulative sequestration is less responsive to the carbon tax than to the oil price. Only at very high taxes does a tradeoff between revenues from oil output and sequestration arise.     

Impacts of an EC carbon/energy tax and deregulating thermal power supply on CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions

Emission of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x are all closely linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Here we report on simulations done by linking a Sectoral European Energy Model (SEEM), covering energy demand in nine Western European countries, with the emission-transport-deposition model RAINS developed by IIASA. The study analyses emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x, deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and the extent of areas where the critical load for sulphur is exceeded in year 2000 under four different energy scenarios. Two different sets of future behavioural patterns for the thermal electric power production sector are considered. In one regime, called the plan-efficient regime, the sector is assumed to follow official plans with regard to investment in new capacity. In the other regime, called the cost-efficient regime, the thermal power sector is assumed to behave in a cost minimizing manner. The effects of the proposed EC carbon/energy tax are studied under both regimes, giving rise to altogether four scenarios.In both regimes the effect of the EC tax is to reduce emissions by between 6 and 10 per cent in year 2000 relative to the scenarios without the tax. A change of regime, from the regulated, plan-efficient regime to the market-based, cost-efficient regime, will, by itself, reduce emissions of CO₂ and NO_x by approximately 3 per cent, while SO₂ emissions are reduced by 13 per cent. The EC tax will reduce sulphur deposition by more than 5 per cent in the nine model countries under the plan-efficient regime. A change of regime further reduces the total deposition by 9 per cent. The area where depositions exceed the critical load is reduced by approximately 6 per cent in year 2000 by the tax in both regimes. Changing from the plan-efficient to the cost-efficient regime has a similar impact.Although the emission reductions due to the EC tax may seem modest, they are shown to have a sizeable effect on the technological abatement costs of reaching targets like those prescribed in the Sofia protocol on the stabilisation of NO_x emissions, and the Helsinki protocol on SO₂ emission reductions. This is part of what can be considered to be secondary benefits of the EC carbon/energy tax.     

Climate policy and the optimal extraction of high‐ and low‐carbon fossil fuels

Abstract. We study how restricting CO₂ emissions affects resource prices and depletion over time. We use a Hotelling‐style model with two non‐renewable fossil fuels that differ in their carbon content (e.g., coal and natural gas) and in addition are imperfect substitutes in final good production. We show that an economy facing a CO₂ flow‐constraint may substitute towards the relatively dirty input. As the economy tries to maximize output per unit of emissions it is not only carbon content that matters: productivity matters as well. With an announced constraint the economy first substitutes towards the less productive input such that more of the productive input is available when constrained. Preliminary empirical results suggest that it is cost‐effective to substitute away from dirty coal to cleaner oil or gas, but to substitute from natural gas towards the dirtier input oil.     

Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution: A case study of the Netherlands

Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO₂ emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO₂. These are CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO₂ tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO₂ tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO₂ GHG in climate change mitigation.     

Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution: A case study of the Netherlands

Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO₂ emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO₂. These are CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO₂ tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO₂ tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO₂ GHG in climate change mitigation.     

Optimal indirect taxation with a restricted number of tax rates

This paper analyzes the optimal structure of indirect taxation when the number of available tax rates is smaller than the number of taxable commodities. Such a constraint requires to choose the levels of tax rates and the groups of commodities that will be taxed at equal rates (or exempted). In a partial equilibrium framework, with a single agent and a low amount of tax collection, it is shown that the process of allocation of commodities to groups depends on both price elasticities and consumption spendings. Still, the optimal tax structure displays a weak form of the inverse elasticity rule; consumption spendings influence the size of the fiscal base, and may lead to many tax exemptions.     

Norwegian Emissions of CO2 1987–1994 A Study of Some Effects of the CO2 Tax

Several countries have introduced taxes on fossil fuels with the aim of reducing atmospheric emissions, partly because of local environmental goals (SO₂, NO_x) and partly to participate in a global effort to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Many macroeconomic studies, based on both global and national models, have been made of how emissions can be reduced with the help of taxes and the consequent reduction in GDP following the introduction of such taxes. Norway has had a CO₂ tax for five years, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of this tax on emissions. The paper provides a counterfactual analysis of energy consumption and emissions if no CO₂ taxes had been introduced, compared with the actual situation in which such taxes exist. The effect of a CO₂ tax on oil consumption, and thus CO₂ emissions is studied on the basis of partial economic models for various sectors of the Norwegian economy. The study indicates that the CO₂ tax has had an impact on CO₂ emissions in Norway.     

Are CO2 taxes regressive? Evidence from the Danish experience

Denmark today carries one of the heaviest environmental tax burdens in the world, bringing in around 10% of public revenues. While evaluations have shown that the Danish CO₂ and other environmental taxes work as an effective measure to reduce emissions, a considerable barrier to increased use of these instruments today seems to be a widespread perception of their socially adverse effects. In this article, it is demonstrated that CO₂ taxes imposed on energy consumption in households, as well as in industry, do in fact tend to be regressive, and therefore have undesirable distributional effects. This holds especially for taxes imposed directly on households. To analyze this, we apply national consumer survey statistics in combination with input–output tables.     

Striking a balance: Optimal tax policy with labor market duality

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where employers may avoid making social security contributions by offering some workers “secondary contracts.” When calibrated using aggregate tax revenue data, the model delivers estimates of secondary “off the books” employment that are consistent with survey evidence for the EU14 and United States. We investigate the fiscal and welfare effects of varying the avoidable and unavoidable shares of labor income tax while keeping the total wedge constant, and find that increasing the employer component raises hours worked, output, and welfare. Partial labor tax evasion makes tax revenues more elastic, but full tax compliance need not be a welfare enhancing policy mix.     

Adoption of digital repositories for CO2 emissions reduction: the case of Korea

This study aims to estimate the potential economic benefits, energy and CO₂ emissions reductions when using trusted third-party digital repository (TTPR) services in one individual bank, and within the banking industry in Korea. First, the cost, benefit and net benefit of using TTPR services in the banking industry are estimated. Second, the net induced output effect is estimated. Third, based on an environmentally extended input–output analysis, CO₂ emissions reduction was estimated as 1924.32 tons in 2009 and the energy consumption reduction as 640.70 TOE. Fourth, the total economic benefit, which is the sum of the net induced output effect and economic value of CO₂ emissions reductions, is approximately $11.04 million. The findings demonstrate that energy consumption and CO₂ emissions reductions are meaningful enough to result in significant economic benefits. Therefore, the Korean government should promote the use of TTPR services in the entire industry.