Economic Viewpoint: Options for UK policy within the ERM

Although the precise timing of the British government's decision to take sterling into the Exchange Rate Mechanism on 8 October was a surprise, the broad features of the decision were not. Indeed, we argued in the June Economic Viewpoint for entry this autumn with broad 6 per cent bands and a high central rate against the DM, illustrated at DM2.95, precisely in line with the outcome. Now that sterling is in the ERM, the conduct of UK macroeconomic policy is profoundly altered, with changes not just in its technical aspects but also in the balance of the supporting institutions. In this Viewpoint, we explore the map of macroeconomic policy in the post-flouting, ERM context.     

Why We Should Leave the ERM

The 'liverpool Six'have called again on the government to leave the Exchange Rate Mechanism and return to monetarism with flexible exchange rates. Our reason is simple. Monetary conditions here have been tightened more than dangerously by the need to support the pound within the ERM, just as in late 1987 and early 1988 they were loosened excessively by the need to hold the pound down in the attempted 'shadow' phase of the ERM. The has repeatedly undermined monetary stability, and has caused first renewed inflation and now severe and protracted recession. It has also tended to produce sterling overvaluation and so chronic balance of payments difficulties; to correct these, recession will need to be prolonged. In the havoc it has wreaked, it risks fuelling demands for a return to the government intervention of he past. As a source of counter inflationary discipline it is therefore flawed. We advocate a return to monetary targeting under floating rates. This would in the short term permit interest rates to fall sharply to stimulate recovery in money supply growth and hence the economy; the exchange rate would fall to a properly valued level, removing the threat to our balance of payments. In the longer term this policy shift would recreate a framework of counter-inflation discipline in which there could still be reasonable domestic responses to cyclical and other UK shocks.     

what next after the ERM debacle?

What sort of policy should the government pursue after quitting the ERM. Five leading monetary economists give their views on what the government should do now. J.M. Keynes provides a far-sighted commentary from the past and G.R. Steele speculates whether it was ever reasonable to expect a single currency to evolve from the ERM.     

基于ERM内部审计方法

复杂多变的经营环境使现代企业面临着众多的不确定性,为了实现企业目标,提升其价值,经营管理方法不断进行改进和完善,这也同时意味着内部审计目标和对象也正在发生着变化,企业为能够更好地实现其目标则对内部审计部门提出了更高的期望。基于此,本文首先对内部审计方法发展历程进行论述,接着提出实施基于ERM(Enterprise Risk Management,以下简称ERM,即企业全面风险管理)内部审计方法的必要性并对COSO委员会提出的ERM框架进行简要的论述,在此基础上,构建出基于ERM内部审计方法的步骤,以期其能够帮助内部审计人员发挥出内部审计本身应有的价值,以满足各方利益相关者的需求。     

why a single currency cannot emerge from the ERM

G.R. Steele, of Lancaster University, argues that the ERM cannot be a stepping stone to monetary union; the ERM is an intrinsically unstable system which can cause unwarranted deflationary pressures.     

Why the Pound Should be Devalued Inside the ERM

I believe the choice of DM2.95 as a central rate for sterling's entry into the ERM was a major mistake of macroeconomic policy, on a par with monetary targeting and underestimatingtlle late 1980s' consumer-led boom. Indeed it was a belief that we were about to make this mistake that led me to undertake, with colleagues at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a detailed and unique study of the choice facing policy makers. I shall have more to say on that study below. Shortly after entry I wrote: "The danger is that the government will attempt to defend the present exchange rate bands at all costs. As a result it may produce, or fail to prevent, a recession on the same scale as 1980-81. (Wren-Lewis, 1990, emphasis added). I fear that much of this has come to pass, but we still have a chance to retrieve something.
To propose a devaluation of sterling within the ERM requires three distinct arguments. The first is that we entered the ERM at a real exchange rate which was above a level required to produce a sustainable current account of the balance of payments. The second is that this matters, and in particular that it has prevented the government from taking steps to counteract the recession. The third is that the gains in adjusting, through a realignment, to a lower rate now outweigh the loss of credibility that would be involved. I shall consider each point in turn.¹     

期权的日历差套期策略和单一期权策略的数学分析

本文研究期权交易策略,建立El历差套期策略和单一期权策略的数学模型,并对这两种策略进行分析和比较,指出投资者能够通过这些期权交易策略获得正的收益。     

浅谈实物期权

介绍了实物期权的基本思想、简单实物期权的分类及应用;通过将传统的投资决策方法与实物期权方法进行对比,指出了传统投资决策方法存在的缺陷并对传统的方法进行了修订;同时还指出了应用实物期权时应该注意的问题。     

On the Sub-optimality of Entry Fees in Auctions With Entry

We study a variation of Myerson’s (1981) model in which we allow for uncertainty about the number of bidders. In our set-up, an appropriate reserve price in a standard auction maximizes the auctioneer’s expected revenue. However, entry fees can be optimal only under some special conditions. Basically, there must be some homogeneity in bidders’ beliefs about the number of bidders and the auctioneer must know, to some extent, these beliefs.     

中小企业实施期权激励的博弈分析

文章通过建立博弈模型,研究了目前虚拟股票激励模式存在的不足,指出上市公司存在较高的市盈率导致理性的中小企业经理人不愿意付出附加努力,因此在中小企业中实施股票期权激励制度并不能达到理想的博弈均衡.最后,文章提出了解决的方案.     

中小企业实施期权激励的博弈分析

文章通过建立博弈模型,研究了目前虚拟股票激励模式存在的不足,指出上市公司存在较高的市盈率导致理性的中小企业经理人不愿意付出附加努力,因此在中小企业中实施股票期权激励制度并不能达到理想的博弈均衡。最后,文章提出了解决的方案。     

支持廉租房建设的财税政策选择

"十二五"期间,继续加强廉租房建设、解决低收入者的住房问题依然是摆在各级政府面前的一个重要的经济问题和社会政治问题。财政税收政策作为一种灵活、有效和重要的政策措施,其政策设计和有效运转,对廉租房建设有着重要作用。本文从理论上阐述了政府介入廉租房领域的必要性和合理性,明确了支持廉租房建设可采取的财税政策工具。对我国现阶段廉租房建设面临的诸如地方政府缺乏积极性、廉租房建设资金不足、廉租房供求矛盾突出以及廉租房分配效率低下等困境进行了系统分析。在此基础上,有针对性地提出了进一步支持廉租房建设的财税策略选择。     

基于ERM框架的上市公司内部控制报告研究

《萨班斯——奥克斯利法案》促使上市公司内部控制信息进入强制披露时期。在SEC随后发布的具体规则中,COSO《内部控制——整体框架》成为用于评价财务报告内部控制有效性的标准。本文在概述内部控制报告演进、分析现行内部控制报告基本特征的基础上,依据2004年COSO《企业风险管理——总体框架》对内部控制框架的发展,重新认识内部控制,提出了改进我国上市公司内部控制报告的若干建议。     

西部大开发中城镇化道路的选择

本文全面地分析了西部城镇化发展的概况及存在问题 ,根据不同的地域条件 ,提出在大开发中 ,城市化发展的意见及主要对策。     

配送中心建设方案选择优化研究

根据配送中心建设的8个决策指标,列出初始的配送中心建设方案,在此基础上经过预选方案的提出和不可行方案的排除之后,将可行方案用列表的形式表达出来,把不同的决策指标单位采用效用函数的方法统一化,再将方案中不同的设计目标的效用函数计算出来,得到一个新的表格,最终获得配送中心建设综合指数的最佳方案.     

Brand Capital and Entry Order

This paper develops the hypothesis that firms possess a stock of well-established brands, a stock termed brand capital. The firm with the greatest capital is able to introduce new products in response to new information about consumer tastes before rivals. The results using data from the ready-to-eat cereal industry not only support this hypothesis, but also distinguish brand capital from other sources of firm heterogeneity.