Business cycle and cost structure

This paper examines whether and how the business cycle affects a firm's cost structure decisions. Using annual data from a large sample of Chinese manufacturing firms over the period of 1998–2018, we find that firms choose a more elastic cost structure with higher variable and lower fixed costs, in recession than in boom periods. We also find that the positive association between recession and cost elasticity is more pronounced in firms in cyclical industries. Further, our mediating effects analysis suggests that managers' expectations regarding future sales and a firm's resource availability are two specific channels by which the business cycles affect a firm's cost structure. Our results also hold after a battery of robustness checks.     

Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads

How do aggregate quantities at the business cycle frequency respond to shocks to the spread between residential mortgage rates and government bonds? Using a structural VAR approach, we find that mortgage spread shocks impact the real economy by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes: a 100 basis point decline in the spread causes a peak increase in consumption, residential investment and GDP by 1.6 percent, 6.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Presumably, these effects are magnified when the policy rate is held fixed, as was the case in the US during the recent implementation of unconventional monetary policy.     

Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off

In the United States and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the expected returns on stocks, adjusted for volatility, are much higher in recessions than in expansions. We consider feasible trading strategies that buy or sell shortly after business cycle turning points that are identifiable in real time and involve holding periods of up to 1 year. The observed business cycle changes in expected returns are not spuriously driven by changes in expected near-term dividend growth. Our findings imply that value-maximizing managers face much higher risk-adjusted costs of capital in their investment decisions during recessions than expansions.     

Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

Why firm access to the bond market differs over the business cycle: A theory and some evidence

This paper presents a theory of firm access to the bond market in which information gathering agencies are valuable but alter the relative cost of bond financing across firms and over the business cycle. The theory builds on the assumption that information frictions prevent these agencies from rating firms correctly all of the time. As a result, the cost of bond financing becomes dependent on the state of the economy and the “quality” of the signal provided by these agencies’ ratings. In addition, when the mix of bond issuers becomes riskier, as happens in recessions, bond financing becomes more expensive for mid-quality firms. Bond financing may even become more expensive to all firms, in which case mid-quality firms will be affected the most. The analysis of the bonds issued in the last two decades by American firms shows that split ratings, our proxy for the “quality” of the rating agencies’ signal, do not affect the relative cost of bond financing across firms in expansions, but they do increase the relative cost of this funding source for mid-credit quality issuers in recessions.     

Business cycle co-movement: Evidence from the Great Depression

Recent analysis focuses on the gold standard as a channel for the transmission of the Great Depression. Trade linkages, which loom large in the recent literature, play a smaller role. Both the gold standard and trade were associated with higher co-movement at the bilateral level during the entire interwar period. We document that fixed exchange rates and trade made a comeback after 1932, but co-movement declined. The fall after 1932 appears to be driven by the rise of smaller blocs based on monetary and trade cooperation and an accompanying fall in co-movement between blocs.     

Portfolio performance measurement: theory and applications

Any admissible portfolio performance measure should satisfyfour minimal conditions: it assigns zero performance to eachreference portfolio and it is linear, continuous, and nontrivial.Such an admissible measure exists if and only if the securitiesmarket obeys the law of one price. A positive admissible measureexists if and only if there is no arbitrage. This article characterizesthe (infinite) set of admissible performance measures. It isshown that performance evaluation is generally quite arbitrary.A mutual fund data set is also used to demonstrate how the measurementmethod developed here can be applied.     

The theory and practice of performance measurement

This paper builds on principles and techniques developed in measurement science, as currently understood in physical sciences and engineering, to improve the theory and practice of performance measurement. To do so, it firstly discusses three fundamental positions on measurement, characterized as metaphysical, anti-metaphysical and relativistic. Subsequently, it lays the foundations of a pragmatic epistemology of measurement in both physical and social sciences. Finally, these insights are integrated through the examination of possible advances in both the theory and practice of performance measurement in organizations.     

A review of human resource accounting measurement systems from a measurement theory perspective

Currently, a large number of diverse methodologies exist which apply to the measurement of human resources. This paper attempts to clarify and evaluate these methodologies by the application of a measurement theory frame of reference. The first two sections discuss the measurement theory perspective and then its application to human resource accounting. The last section focuses upon the operational steps necessary to apply measurement theory to the human resource accounting area.     

我国金融周期计量及其波动特征的实证分析

本文首先选取代表性金融指标:广义货币供给M2、银行信贷额、股票市值和保费金额作为权数,计算指标增长率的基础上建构中国金融周期指数,根据指数序列,利用HP滤波模型对我国金融周期指数以及构成周期指数的指标变量进行周期和趋势特征分析,在此基础上给出我国金融周期指数分析的结论。     

Prospect theory and the risk-return paradox: some recent evidence

There is extensive evidence indicating a negative risk–return relation when a firm’s performance is measured based on accounting measures such as return on asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). Previous studies show that the risk-return paradox can be explained by the prospect theory, which predicts that managers’ risk attitudes are different for firms of different performances. However, those studies mostly use earlier data from the COMPUSTAT database, which suffers from a survivorship bias. Failure to account for delisting firms may understate the risk–return relation. We reexamine the mixture of risk-seeking and risk-averse behaviors based on an updated 20-year sample period that is free from the survivorship problem. Interestingly, our results show stronger and robust evidence supporting the prospect theory during the period from 1984 to 2003.     

Business intelligence systems use in performance measurement capabilities: Implications for enhanced competitive advantage

The purpose of this study is to better understand how the quality of a Business Intelligence (BI) system improves the diagnostic and interactive dimensions of management control systems (MCS), thereby enhancing performance measurement capabilities, which in turn are positively associated with competitive advantage. Integrating theory from performance measurement, organizational learning and the knowledge-based view of the firm, a theoretical model is developed that considers three concepts of BI quality (infrastructure integration, functionality, and self-service) and the roles they play in enhancing diagnostic and interactive performance measurement capabilities. Data collected via survey from 324 CEOs and CFOs provides support for the theorized effects of BI quality on performance measurement capabilities. These capabilities in turn are positively associated with competitive advantage.     

As you like it: Explaining the popularity of life‐cycle funds with multi cumulative prospect theory

Life‐cycle (or target‐date) funds are funds, which typically decrease their risk exposure over time. They have been very successful in many countries, particularly in the segment of old age provision. However, Expected Utility Theory (EUT) cannot explain their popularity. Moreover, recent results of Graf (2016), imply that not only EUT but also its behavioral counterpart Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is often not able to explain the popularity of these products, since for each life‐cycle fund a corresponding balanced fund can be constructed, which is preferable from the investor's perspective in most circumstances. In a recent paper, Ruß and Schelling (2018), have argued that potential future changes in an investment's value already impact the decision of long‐term investors at outset. Based on this, they have introduced Multi Cumulative Prospect Theory (MCPT), which is based on CPT and considers the subjective utility generated by annual value changes. This paper shows that for MCPT‐investors, life‐cycle funds are typically more attractive than their corresponding balanced funds since they reduce the potential losses toward the end of the investment horizon. Hence, our findings provide an explanation for inferior decisions in old age provision. This can serve as a basis to improve such decisions.     

Cultural theory and risk perception: a proposal for a better measurement

Why do members of the public disagree – sharply and persistently – about facts on which expert scientists largely agree? We designed a study to test a distinctive explanation: the cultural cognition of scientific consensus. The ‘cultural cognition of risk’ refers to the tendency of individuals to form risk perceptions that are congenial to their values. The study presents both correlational and experimental evidence confirming that cultural cognition shapes individuals’ beliefs about the existence of scientific consensus, and the process by which they form such beliefs, relating to climate change, the disposal of nuclear wastes, and the effect of permitting concealed possession of handguns. The implications of this dynamic for science communication and public policy‐making are discussed.     

要熟悉业务运营

各位CFO朋友:你们好!沃尔沃汽车金融(中国)有限公司是沃尔沃集团在2006年100%注资成立的,是中国第一家完全针对商务车的汽车金融公司.我们的业务针对购买沃尔沃集团产品的客户,包括卡车和建筑设备,未来,我们还希望能涉足巴士.     

Performance measurement of pension strategies: a case study of Danish life cycle products

The Danish pension markets of life cycle products have expanded considerably since its introduction in the beginning of the millennium. The market is maturing and pensioners have the choice between a wide area of different products. It is therefore about time that financial insurance technology is developed to guide the performance measurement of available products. In this paper we develop a simple first version of such a method and we investigate life cycle products recommended on the web of the four biggest commercial Danish pension companies on one day in February 2007. All considered products are outperformed by trivial benchmark products with constant stock proportion over time. Our approach is the following: for each life cycle product we first find a trivial benchmark product with the same long-term risk and then we compare the long-term return of the two equivalent products. We primarily consider value at risk and tail value at risk as risk measures, but we also include a study where the fair value of an interest guarantee is used as risk measure. We consider both long-term mean returns and long-term median returns. We hope that our new method will be regarded as a first step towards a scientifically based ranking of the quality of pension products.     

The Business Values Scorecard within BAE Systems: The evolution of a performance measurement system

This paper explores the evolution of a performance measurement system in BAE Systems, a UK aerospace company. In 1994, the company embarked on a culture change project, which focused the organisation on five key values: performance, people, customers, partnerships, and innovation and technology. Tracing the mechanisms used to implement these values through the culture change project, the study describes the introduction of the “Business Values Scorecard” (BVS), which provided a way of translating the five key values into a coherent set of performance measures. The paper contrasts the BVS in BAE Systems with the balanced scorecard (BSC) of Kaplan and Norton, emphasising the importance of “coherence”, rather than cause-and-effect relationships. Furthermore, the BVS was not simply designed and then implemented; instead it evolved over an extended period of time. Finally, while it reflected the strategic vision of senior managers, the BVS was used as a tool to enable strategy to emerge from within the organisation, rather than as a mechanism for cascading down the hierarchy the strategy previously established by top-level managers. However, although the profitability of the company increased significantly over the period of the culture change project, many other things were also changing; consequently, it is not possible to isolate the effects on profits of introducing the BVS. Nevertheless, the belief within BAE Systems is that the BVS has made an important contribution to the recent success of the company.     

东亚与太平洋地区部分经济体跻身全球最佳营商环境之列

世界银行前不久发布的《2015年营商环境报告：测评监管质量与效率》发现,东亚与太平洋地区在世界排名前20的经济体中占比第二,仅次于欧洲。此外,东亚与太平洋地区的大多数经济体都实行了进一步改善中小企业监管环境的改革。在过去一年里,该地区的25个经济体中有52%实施了27项提高营商便利度的改革。新加坡连续十年在世界银行集团年度营商便利度测评中蝉联榜首,排名前20的经济体还包括新西兰（排名第二）、韩国（排名第四）、中国香港特别行政区（第五）、中国台湾（第11名）、澳大利亚（第13名）和马来西亚（第18名）。     

Corporate payout policy in Australia and a test of the life‐cycle theory

We provide evidence on the frequency and size of payouts by Australian firms, and test whether the life‐cycle theory explains Australian corporate payout policies. Regular dividends remain the most popular mechanism for distributing cash to shareholders, despite a slight decline in the proportion of dividend payers since the relaxation of buyback regulations in 1998. Off‐market share buybacks return the largest amount of cash to shareholders. Dividend paying firms are larger, more profitable and have less growth options that nondividend paying firms. Consistent with the life‐cycle theory, we observe a highly significant relation between the decision to pay regular dividends and the proportion of shareholders’ equity that is earned rather than contributed.