The factor content of regional bilateral trade: The role of technology and demand

The Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model in its strict form has been strongly rejected by the data. Relaxing some assumptions of the standard HOV model is key to find improvements in its performance. We apply the Davis and Weinstein (2001) methodology to analyse the validity of the HOV model using regions rather than countries. Surprisingly, our results using data for 17 Spanish regions are similar to theirs with international data for OECD countries. Accounting for technological differences improves the predictive capacity of the factor proportions model and including trade costs and geography reduces significantly the missing trade problem. However, relaxing the assumption of factor price equalisation does not improve the performance of the HOV model in a regional setting.     

Development-related biases in factor productivities and the HOV model of trade

Abstract .  Past empirical failures of the basic Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model related to the inability of data to meet its restrictive assumptions. Trefler (1993) tried to resuscitate HOV by introducing a simple Hicks-neutral (HN) factor-productivity adjustment. In this paper, we re-examine this question by estimating factor-specific productivities from the individual technology data of multiple developed and developing countries. We find evidence of factor-augmenting technological differences. Further, the ratios of factor productivities are strongly correlated with corresponding factor endowments. This systematic bias implies that the ability of HOV to explain North-South factor trade depends on both relative factor abundance and factor-augmenting productivity gaps.     

Per Capita Income and the Mystery of Missing Trade

The literature on the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model has concentrated on the production side, particularly the unrealistic assumptions of identical techniques and factor price equalization. However, less is known about the demand side. In this paper, we compare the supply side assumptions versus the demand side assumptions as a cause of the empirical failures in the HOV prediction. While the relaxation in the supply side assumptions is crucial to predict the direction of factor trade, the demand side assumptions are shown to play an important role in explaining why factor trade is “missing” in relation to the HOV prediction. For example of the slope test for labor, the supply side repair improves from 0.026 to 0.162, whereas the demand side repair improves significantly from 0.162 to 0.891.     

Manufacturing consumption,relative prices,and productivity

I study the patterns of manufacturing consumption expenditures across a broad set of countries that differ in their level of development using disaggregated expenditure and price data. The relative price of manufacturing tends to decline with income and the real share rises with income, particularly for countries in the top half of the income distribution. I find that the nominal expenditure share of manufacturing displays a hump-shape pattern with respect to the level of income per capita. I document that the income elasticities of the relative price of individual manufacturing categories lie in a wide range. However, since most categories have a negative elasticity, the average elasticity for manufacturing is negative. In addition, most aggregations of individual categories, regardless of the criteria used, yield manufacturing sub-sectors that feature a negative income elasticity of its relative price and the variation across income in nominal expenditure shares tends to mask a larger variation across income in real shares. Using a standard development accounting framework, I report large differences in productivity across countries for manufacturing categories. I also find some differences in productivity across countries for manufacturing sub-sectors, but these differences are smaller than the differences between manufacturing and services and considerably smaller than the differences across individual manufacturing categories.     

Factor price equalization beyond a “cubic” world

Summary. The importance of factor price equalization (FPE) is widely recognized in economics. The FPE theorem states that, absent any factor intensity reversal, factor prices are equal across countries with identical technologies and product mixes. In a two-factor-two-good-two-country Heckscher-Ohlin model this is equivalent to countries factor endowments being contained in the diversification cone defined by goods factor intensities. This paper identifies a condition, stated in terms of the allocation of factor endowments across countries relative to the demand for and the factor intensities of goods, that is necessary and sufficient for FPE in a world with arbitrary number of countries, goods and factors.Received: 16 July 2004, Revised: 10 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: F1.     

Factor Price Equality and Biased Technical Change in a Two-Cone Trade Model

We reconsider the effects of long‐run economic growth on relative factor prices across cones of specialization. We model economic growth as exogenous technical change. Allowing for capital biased technical change with a sector bias and for endogenous commodity prices, we find that economic growth may increase or decrease factor price differences across cones. For a neutral demand side and capital biased growth in the most capital intensive sector, we find that economic growth encourages less factor price diversity across cones.     

EVIDENCE OF SPATIAL AUTOCORREILATION IN INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Data from the International Comparison Programme (ICP) generate a number of analyses examining price and quantity relationships across countries. Although geographic location is sometimes evoked to explain differences across observations, it is seldom used to measure the extent of this interrelationship. Using ICP Phase V benchmark studies (Summers and Heston, 1991) at the level of household consumption for approximately 64 countries and 23 aggregate headings in 1985, this paper introduces such a measure, testing for spatial autocorrelation among price relatives with respect to three different measures of relative location: the pairwise existence of a common boundary, the distance between capital cities and the amount of trade between two countries.     

INTERNATIONAL DEVIATIONS FROM THE LAW OF ONE PRICE: THE ROLE OF SEARCH FRICTIONS AND MARKET SHARE*

This article examines the size and persistence of international deviations from the law of one price in an industry with search frictions. Cost differences lead foreign and domestic firms to price differently within countries. When local firms are more common in each country, there are large and persistent price differences across countries. Large and persistent changes in international relative costs lead to large and persistent changes in international relative prices. Dynamic considerations imply that the amount of a cost shock firms pass through to prices is U‐shaped in the market share of firms receiving the shock.     

Estimating the HOV Model with Technology Differences Using Disaggregated Labor Skills for the United States and the United Kingdom

The paper develops a version of the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) theorem of parametric technological differences for application to US and UK data on the factor contents of trade, output, and consumption. A matched set of input–output tables, consumption and trade vectors, and labor occupations is constructed. The data allow estimation of factor-specific and industry-specific productivity differences for incorporation into a second-stage econometric approach to assessing the HOV model. The data support a general model with technical differences and measurement error. The implied ratio of US-to-UK expenditure levels exceeds the ratio based on published GNP data.     

Micro Convergence and Macro Convergence: Factor Price Equalization and Per Capita Income

Factor price equalization implies the equality of prices of the same productive factors across countries owing to free trade. The present paper examines the relationship between factor price equalization and the equality of per capita (per worker) incomes in the contexts of the static Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and the dynamic two-sector neoclassical growth model. Factor price equalization is shown to be neither necessary nor sufficient for equality of per capita incomes across trading countries.     

Price and quantity in international comparisons of health care expenditure

An important omission from earlier cross-national comparisons of health care expenditure has been the failure to distinguish between price and quantity. Using recent data on purchasing power parities, the purpose of this article is to report some preliminary results regarding health care expenditure and quantity across 22 OECD countries. The article concludes that, contrary to what has been suggested in some recent articles, the relative price of health care is not correlated to the aggregate per capita income. The fraction of the national income that is devoted to health care provision increases with the per capita income regardless of whether health care is measured in terms of expenditure or quantity. The relative price of health care has a rationing effect on the quantity of health care that is offered, with a price alasticity close to minus one. The latter finding means that the health care expenditure is not greater in countries with higherprices. Furthermore, the differences in health care expenditure or quantity between countries persist after correction for the relative price and the income level. Part of these differences can be explained by differences in the definition of health care in the various countries.     

Open borders

There is a large body of evidence indicating that cross-country differences in income levels are associated with differences in productivity. If workers are much more productive in one country than in another, restrictions on immigration lead to large efficiency losses. The paper quantifies these losses, using a model in which efficiency differences are labor-augmenting, and free trade in product markets leads to factor price equalization, so that wages are equal across countries when measured in efficiency units of labor. The estimated gains from removing immigration restrictions are huge. Using a simple static model of migration costs, the estimated net gains from open borders are about the same as the gains from a growth miracle that more than doubles the income level in less-developed countries.     

Does Growth Encourage Factor Price Equalization?

This paper first notes the importance of "one-cone" versus "multi-cone" equilibria in the Heckscher–Ohlin model of international trade, then asks whether economic growth in neoclassical growth models leads toward one or the other. The one-cone equilibrium arises with internationally similar factor endowments. It has a single set (cone) of relative factor endowments, within which countries diversify and have global factor price equalization (FPE) under free trade. The multi-cone equilibrium arises with larger factor endowment differences. It has FPE within cones, but not between them. The two configurations differ in important ways. The paper examines several neoclassical trade-and-growth models, distinguished by their assumptions about saving, asking whether factor endowments converge into a single cone. None of the models suggests convergence, while some strongly imply that countries will end up in different cones. This suggests a preference for the multi-cone version of the model.     

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high-productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomena that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.     

The Law of One Price—A Case Study

We use retail transaction prices for a multinational retailer to examine the extent and permanence of violations of the law of one price. For identical products, we find typical deviations of 20–50 percent, with some evidence for convergence over time. Such differences might be due to differences in local costs. If so, relative prices of similar products (round versus square mirrors) should be equal across countries. In fact, relative prices vary significantly across very similar goods within a product group. The finding suggests that differences in local distribution costs, local taxes, and probably tariffs do not explain the price pattern, leaving strategic pricing or other factors resulting in varying markups as alternative explanations.
JEL classification : F 41; L 11     

Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries

Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences.     

Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with heterogeneous establishments

We formulate a version of the growth model in which production is carried out by heterogeneous establishments and calibrate it to US data. In the context of this model we argue that differences in the allocation of resources across establishments that differ in productivity may be an important factor in accounting for cross-country differences in output per capita. In particular, we show that policies which create heterogeneity in the prices faced by individual producers can lead to sizeable decreases in output and measured total factor productivity (TFP) in the range of 30 to 50 percent. We show that these effects can result from policies that do not rely on aggregate capital accumulation or aggregate relative price differences. More generally, the model can be used to generate differences in capital accumulation, relative prices, and measured TFP.     

The gains from trade revisited

This paper revisits the issue of whether countries gain more from trading with countries that are similar to themselves, or with countries that are different. A model based on relative endowment and technological differences across countries is developed. The main result is that a country may experience a region of increasing gains from trade as its trading partner becomes more similar to itself in terms of relative endowments. The model also predicts that for countries with sufficiently similar relative endowments, both factors of production may experience gains from trade.     

Trade Liberalization,Skill‐linked Intermediate Production and the Two‐sided Wage Gap

Abstract

A rising wage‐gap, almost universally, in the last two decades has contradicted the age‐old conventional wisdom of asymmetric wage movements across nations when trade is liberalized. We offer an explanation that fits well with the emerging trade pattern between the developed and more advanced developing countries like India and Mexico. We argue that a tariff reduction in the South on imports of an intermediate good from the North may raise the wage‐gap in both the North and the South. The price of the intermediate good moving in different directions and different factor‐intensity‐ranking of this good relative to the two different final goods produced in the two countries underlie this result. Rising wage inequality may specially affect the South because educational expenses and infrastructure do not allow ready transformation of the vast masses of unskilled workers into skilled workers. Hence, the policy lesson of the paper seems to be more public effort in arranging for smoother acquisition of human capital by the unskilled.     

Factor Endowment,the Choice of Technology,and the Volume of Trade

Abstract

This paper studies impacts of factor endowment on international trade in a general equilibrium model in which firms choose their technologies endogenously. Although countries only differ in factor endowment ex ante, countries may also differ in their chosen technologies. If industries choose different capital-labor intensities in equilibrium, the Heckscher–Ohlin theorem, factor price equalization theorem, the Rybczynski theorem, and the Stolper–Samuelson theorem hold. If industries choose the same capital-labor intensity in equilibrium, the volume of trade is zero. None of the four theorems applies.