No End to the Consensus in Macroeconomic Theory? A Methodological Inquiry

After the acrimonious debates between the New Classical and New Keynesian economists in the 1980s and 1990s, a consensus developed, namely, the New Neoclassical Synthesis. However, the 2007 credit crunch exposed the severe limitations of this approach. This article presents a methodological analysis of the New Neoclassical Synthesis and how the paradigmatic heuristic of the representative agent, namely, market clearing subject to sticky prices, excluded the Keynesian notion of involuntary unemployment arising from lack of effective demand. It shows these models may be modified to produce Keynesian results, but are ruled out of consideration by proponents of the New Neoclassical approach by weak incommensurability. It concludes that because of this the New Neoclassical Synthesis, in spite of its failure to explain the sub‐prime crisis, is likely to resist successfully the resurgence in Keynesian economics.     

Perceptions of Strategic Priorities,Consensus and Firm Performance

This paper reports the results of a study into strategy content, consensus, and firm performance. It is argued that the content of consensus, i.e. what the agreement is about, is of importance, and that strategic priorities concerned with the extant strategy are constructs that are strategically relevant to the exploration of consensus--performance links. Whereas previous studies have used a statistical measure of consensus (summing standard deviations), in this study the managers' perceptions of strategic priorities have been plotted on two-dimensional graphs. We argue that in contrast to the use of means and standard deviations, by plotting the patterns of perceptions produced by a management group, more information is retained for subsequent interpretation and hence a richer picture of the extent and nature of shared perceptions within a management group can be developed. Using this approach, data from 32 strategic business units were analysed, revealing patterns of consensus and performance. The paper discusses the implications of these patterns, and suggests some avenues for further research.     

Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth

The literature suggests that the dispersion of agents’ forecasts of an event flows from heterogeneity of beliefs and models. Using a data set of fixed event point forecasts of UK GDP growth by a panel of independent forecasters published by HM Treasury, we investigate three questions concerning this dispersion: (a) Are agent’s beliefs randomly distributed or do agents fall into groups with similar beliefs? (b) as agents revise their forecasts, what roles are played by their previous and consensus forecasts? and (c) is an agent’s private information of persistent value? We find that agents fall into four clusters, a large majority, a few pessimists, and two idiosyncratic agents. Our proposed model of forecast revisions shows agents are influenced positively by a change in the consensus forecast and negatively influenced by the previous distance of their forecast from the consensus. We show that the forecasts of a minority of agents significantly lead the consensus.     

Japan in Britain: the dynamics of joint consultation

Despite the centrality of Company Councils for Japanese firms in the UK, empirical data on their evolution is rare. In this article consultation methods used by a Japanese manufacturing transplant are analysed using a longitudinal approach. The findings suggest that the development of a ‘consensus culture’ proved to be highly problematic for employees, shop stewards, local managers and Japanese staff, especially at the consultation-bargaining interface.     

The Self‐Help Myth: Towards a Theory of Philanthropy as Consensus Broker

This article presents a theoretical and methodological approach to studying how philanthropic power is maintained through the process of negotiating consensus between greatly unequal partners such as wealthy funders and social movement leaders. It is proposed that grant agreements between private foundations and social movement organizations construct idealized spaces of public participation and discursive theories of change that draw attention away from structural inequality and antagonism, ultimately generating consent. Drawing upon archival and ethnographic research on philanthropic investments in addressing migrant poverty in California's Central Valley, the article shows how consensus between foundation staff and farmworker and immigrant organizers promote funding frameworks that exclude questions that challenge relationships of power and systems of agricultural production that contribute to enduring poverty across the region. The Gramscian conceptual frames of “discursive power,” “hegemony as politics,” and “strategic articulation” are presented as a theoretical framework from which to understand the power of private philanthropy as consensus broker during historical moments of crisis.     

Finding an academic home for fundraising: a multidisciplinary study of scholars' perspectives

• The high‐demand, high‐paying field of fundraising does not have an academic home in higher education, which hampers fundraising research and education. Recent advances in fundraising education and research can be attributed to four different disciplines: public relations, marketing, nonprofit management, and higher education administration. This disjointed approach has impeded the empirical study of fundraising, the development of theory in the field, and the education of future fundraisers. The purpose of this study is to begin the process to scientifically identify an appropriate academic home for fundraising that benefits fundraising practice, advances scholarship, and strengthens America's nonprofit sector. In‐depth interviews were conducted with 15 scholars from multiple disciplines who had published articles on fundraising in the three major nonprofit management and philanthropy journals. Findings show that there is no consensus among scholars about whether fundraising belongs in public relations, marketing, or nonprofit management. Although this study found no consensus among fundraising scholars about the appropriate academic home for fundraising, it does identify areas of agreement and disagreement on pertinent topics and provides a benchmark to guide further discussions about locating fundraising within an academic discipline.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GOVERNMENT SIZE AND GROWTH: A SURVEY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE – A COMMENT

In contrast to the commonly held view, Bergh and Henrekson (2011) conclude that a consensus has almost been reached on the thesis that government size is negatively correlated with economic growth in developed countries. They underpin this by claiming that the only study in the survey to deviate from this consensus view, i.e. Colombier (2009), was rebutted by Bergh and Öhrn (2011). This comment shows that the claim by Bergh and Henrekson (2011) cannot be upheld because the analysis by Bergh and Öhrn (2011) is based on a flawed dataset. The re‐estimation of Colombier's (2009) regressions with time‐fixed effect does not reject his main findings. Moreover, it is demonstrated that recent empirical evidence on the growth impact of government size in rich countries is not as unanimous as the survey by Bergh and Henrekson (2011) suggests. Thus, the claim that a consensus view has been reached is premature.     

Assessment of meaningful change in routine outcome measurement (ROM) with a combination of a longitudinal and a ‘classify and count’ approach

To assess significant changes of health status in people receiving health care, distribution-based and anchor-based methods have been proposed. However, there is no real consensus on what method is the best for evaluating clinically meaningful change. To maximize the internal and external validity of outcome assessment, we propose combining two approaches as recommended by recent practical guidelines on this field. Specifically, we suggest applying longitudinal hierarchical linear models on subgroups of patients showing reliable change and reliable and clinically significant change. This combined approach improved the model’s ability (1) to quantify the magnitude of changes to be reliable and clinically meaningful and (2) to select significant predictors of changes. An empirical application on a prevalence sample of Italian outpatients attending four community mental health services was done. A cross-sectional model and three longitudinal models were applied on the entire study sample and reliable and clinically meaningful change subsamples to investigate the magnitude of change and the predictive effect on outcomes of clinical, socio-demographic and process variables on different patients’ subgroups. Differences were found suggesting that both the statistical method and the sample used to calculate individual changes affect the estimates. The main conclusion is that ignoring the longitudinal data structure or including patients with unreliable change at the follow-up might result in misleading inferences that can alter the real magnitude of changes and the contributions of predictors. The approach proposed provides robust feedback to clinicians on clinically significant change and can be recommended in outcome studies and research.     

Using decision modeling to examine management consensus: A study of a maintenance management control system

Using a decision modeling approach, this research examined differences across levels of management in a large construction company concerning the criteria for a maintenance management control system. The six criteria were cost efficiency, productivity improvement, materials management, unification of work control, planning and scheduling, and information and retrieval. A decision-making exercise was constructed that asked the respondent to make recommendations concerning the approval or disapproval of 32 hypothetical maintenance management systems. Among the 60 managers who completed the exercise, there was evidence of significant differences across levels of management concerning the criteria for a maintenance management control system. Additionally, distortions were observed between what the managers said was important and what their decisions indicated. These data demonstrate that the decision modeling approach presented can be effectively used to examine the degree of consensus within an organization.     

The Relationships Between MBO System Strength and Goal‐Climate Quality and Strength

We adopted Bowen and Ostroff's ( 2004 ) HRM system strength concept so as to test it within the context of a management by objectives (MBO) system, which was utilized by six independent firms owned by a large, diversified family business group in Turkey. For this purpose, we surveyed the middle managers to measure 10 context‐specific metafeatures of the MBO system. By using aggregated scores at the functional group level (N = 47), we captured the distinctiveness, consistency, and consensus dimensions of this HRM practice. We tested and compared three alternative theoretical models of HRM strength where the three dimensions have compensatory, additive, and distinctiveness mediated effects on climate quality and strength. Results support the compensatory model and indicate that the strength of the MBO system (as a reflective latent variable representing the shared variance of the system's distinctiveness, consistency, and consensus) is positively related to business units’ quality and strength of goal climate. In addition, distinctiveness—but not consistency and consensus—of the MBO system appears to be particularly critical for the emergence of a strong and high‐quality goal climate. Lastly, implications and limitations of the study as well as possible future research directions are discussed. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

SOVEREIGN INSOLVENCY PROCEDURES – A COMPARATIVE LOOK AT SELECTED PROPOSALS

Abstract.  The most practicable short-term approaches for sovereign debt restructuring would include a code of conduct (voluntary approach) and collective action clauses (contractual approach). In the medium term, a sovereign insolvency procedure (statutory approach) may have an important role to play because it would be a comprehensive instrument designed to coordinate different creditor groups prior to and during a debt crisis. This paper provides a survey of six comprehensive policy proposals for a sovereign bankruptcy procedure. It points to approaches that could improve existing proposals and creates a basis for new proposals which could prove conducive to reaching political consensus.     

Enhance the evaluation quality of project performance based on fuzzy aggregation weight effect

The small and medium enterprises had played an important role during the economy development at Taiwan. Under the competitive environment, the managers or the decision-makers will frequently meet a scenario with the complicate decision-making problems, e.g. the importance tradeoffs between the multiple criteria or the multiple attributes. That is, the consensus and differences among evaluation-makers will be frequently met for most practitioners in multiple criterions decision-making (MCDM) consideration. How to incorporate those characteristics into analysis to enhance the evaluation quality of performance will be a meaningful issue to be addressed. In this study, a case about performance evaluation of the multiple projects owing to a small and medium enterprise at Taiwan will be applied to demonstrating the rationality and feasibility of proposed approach based on the fuzzy aggregation weight effect incorporating the consensus and differences among evaluation-makers.     

The impact of evolutionary and developmental metaphors on Purchasing and Supply Management: A critique

A widespread consensus has emerged in the Purchasing and Supply Management (PSM hereafter) field arguing that purchasing and supply activities may be allocated to the categories of ‘strategic’ and ‘non-strategic’. Whereas strategic activities are associated with higher inter-organisational status, non-strategic activities are regarded as generating low levels of status. Consequently, purchasing functions can obtain more intra-organisational status by focussing their efforts on strategic activities, and they should thus be encouraged to undergo this change, which may usefully be described as following an evolutionary or developmental path from a clerical to a strategic focus. The paper seeks to demonstrate the strength of the consensus surrounding these ideas by conducting a wide-ranging literature survey, challenges the validity of that consensus and empirically tests its influence on practitioner attitudes and behaviours. Abundant evidence is found to support the proposition that a consensus has emerged. The validity of this consensus is challenged in a variety of ways, particularly with reference to the distribution of large and small companies in the economy. The pilot study confirms that practitioners have absorbed the consensus view promulgated by academia. The undesirable effects of the bias against certain types of activity on functional and overall organisational effectiveness are considered, and recommendations are made for both practitioners and academics working in the subject area.     

The consensus between Italian HR and sustainability managers on HR management for sustainability-driven change – towards a ‘strong' HR management system

By sustainability-driven change, we mean the transformation of a company into an active agent of broad sustainable development. This paper focuses on two key features of this transformation: (i) the key role played by the company's human resource (HR) management system within that process; and (ii) the fact that the transformation involves a variety of agents and that, among others, HR and sustainability managers are pivotal to the success of the process. Gaining consensus between them on those aspects of the HR system that support sustainability-driven change is a key success factor, as it results in a ‘strong' HR management system that sends coherent messages to the organization. In addition, consensus between the two managers can be critical in preparing a compelling business case for sustainability for the senior management of the organization. This paper explores the level of consensus between the HR and sustainability managers using a survey of 89 managers in Italian companies committed to sustainability. The results of our research indicate which elements of an HR management system are seen as important for sustainability-driven change by both the HR and the sustainability managers and what differences in perception exist between them. Based upon our findings, implications for HR practice and research are then advanced and discussed.     

论NTTAA对美国标准化发展的推动作用

在相当长的一段时间内,美国政府都对自愿性标准不感兴趣,也不闻不问,直到20世纪80年代末90年代初,美国政府发现自愿性标准对国家的经济发展及技术创新具有重要作用,于是开始重视民间标准,并于1996年实施了《国家技术转让与推动法案》（NTTAA）,以推动政府机构在技术立法和政府采购中采用自愿性标准。文章重点分析了NTTAA的产生和发展对美国标准化发展所发挥的推动作用,并对联邦政府与民间机构之间的合作进行了研究,提出了其对中国的启示。     

Comprehensiveness versus Pragmatism: Consensus at the Japanese–Dutch Interface

abstract    By comparing the views of managers working at the interface of two consensus-oriented societies, Japan and the Netherlands, we show important differences between the consensus decision-making processes as seen by Japanese and Dutch managers. These differences relate to how complete the agreement of opinion should be in order to speak of consensus, with the Japanese managers demanding a more complete consensus than the Dutch. The processes and conditions that Japanese and Dutch managers see as leading to consensus also differ. Japanese consensus is based on a more ordered, sequential process than Dutch consensus. Our respondents differed deeply regarding the role of the hierarchy in their own and the others' consensus processes, with both Japanese and Dutch managers seeing their own consensus process as less hierarchical. Our findings show that the concept of consensus is interpreted quite differently by Japanese and Dutch managers. This is an important warning for companies operating at the interface of these two societies. More in general our research illustrates the usefulness for international management research of detailed comparative studies focusing not on stark contrasts but on more subtle differences between management practices.     

Growth and convergence in a multi-country empirical stochastic Solow model

The paper considers international per capita output and its growth using a panel of data for 102 countries between 1960 and 1989. It sets out an explicitly stochastic Solow growth model and shows that this has quite different properties from the standard approach where the output equation is obtained by adding an error term to the linearized solution of a deterministic Solow model. It examines the econometric properties of estimates of beta convergence as traditionally defined in the literature and shows that all these estimates are subject to substantial biases. Our empirical estimates clearly reflect the nature and the magnitude of these biases as predicted by econometric theory. Steady state growth rates differ significantly across countries and once this heterogeneity is allowed for the estimates of beta are substantially higher than the consensus in the literature. But they are very imprecisely estimated and difficult to interpret. The paper also discusses the economic implications of these results for sigma convergence. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization tools for design and marketing of new/improved products using the house of quality

Quality function deployment (QFD) has helped many firms realize significant reduction in product design costs and development time. The QFD process includes ranking customer preferences, rating the competitors, and parts deployment for the new/improved product. Prior to this research, such activities have been performed based on expert opinion, or the “best-in-class” approach. We develop and solve optimization models for the identification of consensus rankings and ratings, that take into account the priorities and perceptions of all the customers in a target market. Then, based on the consensus rankings, we identify a parts mix for the new/improved product that satisfies a budget constraint and matches or exceeds the performance expectations of all customers surveyed in the target market. Finally, we show how the QFD charts can be used to identify competitors that are falsely perceived as superior, as well as areas where the firm's marketing strategies have had the desired effects. Such insights are useful in developing the future marketing strategy of the firm.     

《两骑士》的后殖民主题解读

乔伊斯认为《两骑士》是《都柏林人》中最好的故事之一,它揭露了爱尔兰社会的堕落。但该小说还未被充分认识。运用葛兰西霸权理论和法农及斯皮瓦克的后殖民理论剖析该小说,从政治社会、市民社会、属下阶层三个层面,可以揭示英国殖民者是如何通过"政治高压"和"主动赞同"来维护权力统治的。研究表明,殖民者的价值观变成全民共识,这种文化诱使被统治的爱尔兰人认同殖民者,有助于维护殖民统治地位而不是反抗压迫。     

投资现金流敏感性研究述评

大量的经验文献支持了流动性假说,认为内部现金流是影响公司投资的一个重要因素。文中基于信息不对称下的融资约束理论与自由现金流的代理成本假说,回顾了关于投资现金流敏感性存在及其根源的国内外相关研究成果,梳理了该领域的研究脉络,并对主要结论进行了总结与评论。对文献研究发现,大多数研究均证实了投资与现金流之间具有较强的敏感性,但挖掘这种敏感性的根源却尚未达成一致的结论。尤其随着股权结构的引入,考虑到管理层内部持股的激励与堑壕效应、股权集中下控股股东的监督与侵占效应,该领域的研究纷繁复杂。但基于股权结构的研究是揭示这种敏感性的根源、探索非效率投资治理机制的有效途径。