Downward nominal wage rigidity: Evidence from Canada 1901–1950

This paper tests for the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity in Canadian wage data for 26 occupations in 38 cities from the first half of the 20th century. The sample is of particular interest as it contains periods with average inflation rates that are close to zero as well as two sharp deflations. Results from a variety of different tests indicate that wage change distributions are consistent with the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity. However, for two subsamples containing sharp declines in output and prices, estimates of the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity are much lower. This suggests that downwards adjustments did occur during times of severe depression and deflation.     

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada: Evidence from micro‐level data

We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using employer‐level administrative data from the major wage settlements (MWS) and household‐based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID). MWS data cover large unionized firms in Canada, while SLID is a rich rotating panel representative of the employed population in Canada. Combining both sources of information allows for an extensive analysis of DNWR in the Canadian labour market. We find large shares of wage freezes and smaller shares of wage cuts in both MWS and SLID. Shares of freezes are higher at lower CPI inflation rates, based on provincial data. These observations are consistent with the presence of DNWR. DNWR in Canada appears to be larger than in other countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and European countries. The incidence of DNWR is heterogeneous across firms’ and workers’ characteristics. Wages report less DNWR over longer horizons.     

At the crossroads of “futurism” and “prospective”: Towards a Canadian synthesis?

North American “future studies” and the French concept of “prospective” have been integrated to provide the basis for an attempted “Canadian Synthesis” in the approach developed by the Montreal-based think-tank, the Gamma Institute. In this paper the founding president of Gamma outlines the four stages of the approach in a conceptual framework entitled the “Chronospace” and illustrates its applicability by referring to some of Gamma's projects in the last 12 years.     

“Fair marriages”: An impossibility

For marriage markets [Gale, D. and Shapley, L.S., 1962, College admissions and the stability of marriage, American Mathematical Monthly 69, 9–15.] so-called fair matchings do not always exist. We show that restoring fairness by using monetary transfers is not always possible: there are marriage markets where no amount of money can guarantee the existence of a fair allocation.     

“ENVIRONMENT”, “NEEDS” AND REAL INCOME COMPARISONS(1)

Conventional measures of national product make no pretence of including everything that affects welfare. As increasing attention is being paid to environmental pollution, the problem of incorporating certain non-economic variables into the analysis of well-being becomes more relevant. The object of this note is to show how a difference in “needs” for, and hence expenditures on, anti-pollutants, which will show up in conventional national accounts comparisons as differences in “tastes”, should be converted into differences in real income.     

“Constitutionalizing” the corporation

To become effective instruments in the attainment of a sustainable society, corporations should have their constitutional status settled. Thus far, mainly by Supreme Court decisions, corporations have an uncertain status. They are “persons” under the Constitution and have certain rights; but unlike natural persons, they do not have concomitant constitutional duties. Corporations should be viewed as “private” governments exercising substantial power in society. They are, however, considered to be associations of individuals rather than divisions of society. The need is to legitimate their governing power by “constitutionalizing” them. That can be done by corporations accepting, or having imposed upon them, two principal constitutional duties. First, means should be developed whereby corporate officers routinely take the general good into account. That duty could be implemented by making “social impact statements,” analogous to but broader than the familiar environmental impact statements, before making important corporate decisions. Secondly, as “sociological communities,” corporate officers wield considerable power over members of those communities. A bill of rights similar to the Constitution's Bill of Rights is recommended so as to make corporate power that is necessary for achievement of societal goals as tolerable and decent as possible. Acceptance of those duties would make corporations parts of, not separate from, the greater corporation called society. They would be private, profit-making entities with a definite public function. Preferably, the duties should be voluntarily accepted. Congress, however, has undoubted constitutional power to impose both, should it so desire.     

The Role of Absolute Continuity in “Merging of Opinions” and “Rational Learning”

D. Blackwell and L. Dubins (1962, Ann. Math. Statist.38, 882–886) showed that opinions merge when priors are absolutely continuous. E. Kalai and E. Lehrer (1993, Econometrica61, 1019–1045) use this result to show that players in a repeated game eventually play like a Nash equilibrium. We provide an alternative proof of merging of opinions that clarifies the role of absolute continuity while casting doubt on the relevance of the result. Persistent disagreement, the opposite of merging, allows the construction of a sequence of mutually favorable “bets.” By a law of large numbers, both agents are certain they will win these bets on average. This certain disagreement violates absolute continuity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C11, C69, C72, D83.     

The “similarity” and “heterogeneity” theses in studying innovation: evidence from the end-of-life vehicle case

The paper seeks to understand how eight companies in the European car industry responded to changing business conditions under the threat of regulation on the waste problem of end-of-life vehicles. It was observed that the companies pursued diverging innovation tracks in dealing with the regulatory pressure, although competing in the same markets and subject to similar regulatory pressure. The case is interesting to consider in the light of recent discussions of differences in styles of innovation. The question then is whether any sort of style of innovation may be distinguished in the diverging innovation tracks. The objective of the paper is to add to these discussions by considering the results of this case study in the light of “similarity” and heterogeneity hypotheses that may be advanced around “styles” of innovation.     

“Large” versus “Small” Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks

What is the role of “large players” (e.g., hedge funds) in speculative attacks? Recent work suggests that large players move early to induce smaller agents to attack. However, many observers argue that large players move late in order to benefit from interest‐rate differentials. We propose a model in which large players can do both. Using data on currency trading by foreign (large) and local (small) players, we find that foreign players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone during the 1990s. During the attack on the Swedish krona after the Russian moratorium in 1998, foreign players moved early. Gains by delaying attack were small, however, because interest rates did not increase.     

Eating like which “Joneses?” an Iterative Solution to the Choice of a Poverty Line “Reference Group”

A standard method for calculating poverty lines (e.g. Ravallion, 1994) is not fully specified. The choice of the "reference population" for determining food baskets is left to the decision of the individual analyst. However, the poverty line can be quite sensitive to the real income of the reference group because the "quality" of the food basket—measured as the food expenditures per calorie—rises sharply with income. We propose that the reference group be centered on the poverty line. To address the obvious circularity problem in choosing a reference population at the poverty line to define the poverty line, we use an iterative approach. This iterative method provides a methodological anchor that fixes the reference group.     

MONITORING ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE POVERTY: “NOT ENOUGH” IS NOT THE SAME AS “MUCH LESS”

Financial poverty indicators assess which people have few financial resources and are thereby at risk of having an unacceptably low living standard. Most countries use one or several “official” poverty indicators, but they typically use either an absolute or a relative benchmark to determine what is unacceptable; absolute benchmarks are based on basic needs or rights while relative benchmarks depend on what is considered to be a “normal” living standard. Applying the absolute U.S. and the relative EU poverty indicators on the U.S. and 15 EU member states, this research shows that it makes sense to use both benchmarks.     

TESTING CATCHING‐UP BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: “GROWTH RESISTANCE” AND SOMETIMES “GROWTH TRAGEDY”

This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per‐capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non‐stationary long‐memory models, wavelet models and time‐varying factor representation models), we show that the transition paths to long‐run growth (the catch‐up dynamics) are very persistent over time and non‐stationary, thereby yielding a variety of potential steady states (conditional convergence). Our findings do not support the idea according to which the developing countries share a common factor (such as technology) that eliminates per‐capita output divergence in the very long run. Instead, we conclude that growth is an idiosyncratic phenomenon that yields different forms of transitional economic performance: growth tragedy (some countries with an initial low level of per‐capita income diverge from the richest ones), growth resistance (with many countries experiencing a low speed of growth convergence), and rapid convergence.     

Challenging the human crisis: “The trilemma”

The great increase in world population in the coming century will result in a human crisis of worldwide proportions. A new concept for describing and proposing solutions to this crisis, called the Trilemma, is described by the authors. To feed large and growing populations, humankind is now being forced to make the difficult choice between producing sufficient food for the world population and preserving the environment, or generating economic growth, requiring the consumption of energy and natural resources. These difficult choices present the Trilemma, a new concept that is composed of three dimensions: economic growth, resources such as energy and food, and the environment. None of these three dimensions can be optimized individually as they are mutually interdependent.This paper describes a possible world energy condition in the 21st century. Three scenarios of this energy consumption are presented and compared with the possible energy supply at that time. This supply is estimated from the extrapolation of the renewable energy development of the past and the possible fossil fuel supply. The comparison of the energy supply and the energy consumption indicates that the annual rate of economic growth in the developed region would be only 1% if the gross national product (GNP) per capita of the developing region increases gradually from 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions in 1990, to 1/10 in 2020, and finally to 1/3 in 2100.Another possibility is that if the GNP per capita of the developing region remains 1/26 of the GNP of the developed regions between 1990 and 2100, the economic growth rate in the developed region could be as large as 3%. In the latter case, an energy shortage would develop in the middle of the 21st century, even if the fast breeder reactor were fully operational by the year 2030. Energy technological developments in Japan are also described as a part of the possible countermeasures against the Trilemma.