Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies.     

Inflation Targeting as a Coordination Device

The paper analyses inflation targeting when two independent policy authorities (a central bank and a National Government) have divergent preferences for the optimal policy mix. We demonstrate that the main advantage of inflation targeting, as a policy regime, is that it represents a simple proxy for full coordination between policy authorities. Inflation targeting therefore helps because it reduces the conflicts between fiscal and monetary policy, expecially where there are strong spillovers between the two policies. These results are then tested, and largely validated, in a simulation framework using a small open economy calibrated model.     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia,Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?

Outwardly, the central banks of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. follow somewhat different approaches to controlling inflation. The U.S. does not explicitly target inflation while the other countries do. Canada and New Zealand have target bands for inflation while Australia has a point target. Results in this paper nevertheless find broad similarities in the monetary policies of these countries. Each can be described as having pursued optimal inflation targeting (explicit or implicit), with heavy interest rate smoothing, but perhaps placing little weight on output variability. We argue that interest rate smoothing is used to introduce gradualism into the response of monetary policy to inflation. We show that given heavy interest rate smoothing, a concern for output variability is redundant.     

财政政策与货币政策的动态搭配和组合模式

基于经济周期的不同阶段,从IS-LM曲线和供求理论的双重视角解析利用财政政策与货币政策对宏观经济进行调控的内在机理,揭示两类政策搭配组合的理论逻辑,分析制约财政政策与货币政策调控效应的现实因素。研究发现,财政政策与货币政策的搭配组合要根据经济发展的不同阶段进行动态供给,以满足经济周期不同阶段的需求,如此方能实现经济的稳定增长。现阶段,我国应采取"更加积极的财政政策与稳健适度的货币政策"这一政策组合。产品市场与货币市场对利率的弱敏感性使政策刺激经济的效果受到制约,因而两类政策不仅要在总量层面"对冲"经济增速减缓的压力,而且要在结构层面增强协调性。     

西部地区货币政策实施效应研究

货币政策区域效应的存在使得统一的货币政策给我国西部区域经济的发展带来不利因素。文章具体分析了西部地区货币供求的自身特征及政策传导的差异,根据近年来货币政策实践对西部地区的调控效果,认为,近年来货币政策对区域差异的关注,在一定程度上缩减了地区间经济差距,但效果并不是十分显著。要使货币政策对西部区域经济发挥更大效力,需要改善西部地区的金融生态环境,进一步探索区域差别的货币政策。     

Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH (TARCH) model.     

Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers: Inflation versus Money Supply and Exchange Rate Targets

Some recent papers have shown how a simple contract can eliminate the inflationary bias of discretionary monetary policy. This paper shows that if the central banker is risk averse, a contract in terms of money is superior to one in terms of inflation. The paper also shows that, if the central banker cares about his reappointment, an exchange rate target might always leads to the implementation of the optimal policy.     

"通胀目标法"在日本的争议

近年来，在日本国内围绕着应否采用“通胀目标法”一直展开着激烈的争议，研究和分析日本型“通胀目标法”的内容及实质，可期为我国在对“通胀目标法”这一新事物的研讨提供一个新视角。     

弱化我国货币政策传导机制因素探讨

当前我国货币政策传导机制不顺畅，其主要原因是：需求不足制约了中央银行货币供给，经济实体经济结构与金融经济结构的不对称阻碍了货币政策传导的信贷渠道，传导机制的机构活力不足，金融市场发育不成熟使货币政策实施的有效空间减少，等等。因此，必须认真研究提高货币政策传导效率的途径，使中央银行货币政策意图顺利实现。     

The Information Content of the Yield Curve for Monetary Policy: A Survey

The information content of the yield curve with respect to future inflation as well as future real economic activity is discussed. Both theoretical arguments and the empirical validity of these arguments are reviewed. The empirics favouring the yield curve as leading indicator for inflation is not found to be entirely convincing. The curve possesses information content, but it is difficult to empirically discriminate between the effects on real interest rates and future inflation. The yield spread is a stable leading indicator for future real economic activity, but there are several theoretical interpretations of this (positive) relationship, depending on the nature of shocks hitting the economy and the behaviour of prices in the economy. The proper reaction of monetary policy could differ among these interpretations. All in all, care should be taken in using the yield curve as information variable for monetary policy.     

金融税制与货币政策效应

金融税制是一国管理金融活动的有关税收的法律法规的总和。金融税制影响金融市场效率和各类金融活动主体的行为,通过利率传导机制和信贷配给传导机制对货币政策效应产生影响。为保证货币政策能顺利传导,我国目前应进一步完善针对金融市场的流转税和所得税制度,对商业银行不宜取消现行的营业税或急剧降低营业税税率,应针对不同业务细化和完善相关的流转税制度。     

政策操作透明度下的货币政策传导机制研究

货币政策的有效性在很大程度上取决于货币政策传导机制的灵活畅通。通过增加货币政策的透明度,从而提高货币政策的可信性和有效性,成为当前各国中央银行关注的焦点。文章介绍了货币政策透明度的内涵,分析了增强货币政策透明度对提高货币政策传导机制的作用,并对改进我国货币政策透明度问题进行了探讨。     

关于利率政策与货币政策效力关系的一点思考与探索

利率政策会影响一国货币政策的制定和实施,尤其在开放经济条件下,利率效应在国际间存在传递,加剧了央行制定货币政策的难度。货币政策效力趋于减弱甚至无效。本文从消费、投资两个方面分析了我国利率政策效率低下,货币政策效力不大。在此基础上,提出了如何改善利率政策,进而提高货币政策效力。     

经济“新常态”下我国的货币政策如何转型

新常态下,我国经济增长速度减缓,发展方式从规模速度型粗放增长转变为质量效率型集约增长,国民经济结构不断优化。货币政策是国家为了调控经济活动而实施的管理手段,包括调控利率、货币供给等。对此,本文主要从经济"新常态"下我国的货币政策转型策略进行探讨,以供参考。     

量化宽松、资本流动与国际间货币政策协调

主要利用美国国际收支(简称BOP)账户、资金流量表等统计数据探讨量化宽松与资本流动之间相互联系。分析表明,国际资本流动与量化宽松之间关系密切,量化宽松是资本流向EMEs的重要原因,反过来资本流动则影响了量化宽松的有效性,量化宽松和资本流动是引发全球货币汇率冲突的关键性因素。各国应通过国际协调促进宏观经济政策的生效和压制冲突,使全球经济得以更加平衡地复苏以压制冲突,而且发达国家应承担更大的调整责任。     

Central Bank Autonomy,the Exchange Rate Constraint and Inflation: The Case of Italy, 1970–1992

This paper analyzes the determinants of inflation in Italy over the period 1970–1992. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of central bank independence in influencing monetary growth, and on the role of monetary growth and of the Exchange rate Mechanism (ERM) in affecting inflation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Bank of Italy lacked independence and the ERM was still not credible, monetary growth was highly unstable and was the main determinant of Italian inflation, although oil price and tax shocks also played a role. After the March 1983 general exchange rate realignment and the French U-turn, the ERM became more credible and monetary growth stopped being a significant determinant of inflation; instead, the German inflation became the main variable influencing Italian inflation.     

信贷差异、内需扩张与通胀变化的关联度

实施应对金融危机的一揽子措施以来,各口径货币总量对CPI的预测能力明显下降,CPI回升速度显著低于依据历史经验测算出的货币增长对物价形成的压力。这一现象主要与货币供给结构变化有关。从信贷增长与内需在GDP增长中贡献度的关系来看,扩张性政策导致的信贷高增长并未明显超出内需扩张之所需,加之经济增长也并未超出其潜在水平,因此短期内没有产生明显的CPI通胀压力,但经济回升和货币信贷增长推升了通胀预期。鉴于通胀机理所发生的变化,宏观政策需要更多关注更广泛意义上的整体价格水平稳定,更多关注预期和环比数据变化以提高调控的前瞻性和有效性,同时要加强宏观审慎管理,多运用市场化和有弹性的政策工具实施调控。     

Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Monetary Policy in the Industrial World: Reflections on some Basic Issues

Abstract

This paper is a general assessment of monetary policy in major OECD countries during the 1990s. Within a simple policy framework that combines money growth, nominal income, and an open economy IS-LM type Mundell-Fleming model, the paper discusses the major strands in the conduct of monetary policy in developed industrial economies. It throws light on such problems as “rules versus discretion”, management of exchange rates, the effect of monetary changes on income and prices, and the rupture of monetary policy with other instruments of economic policy that also affect the economy.