黄金，在金融危机中闪光

黄金可谓是2009年的一大奇迹,在金融危机中一路走“牛”。在美元疲软、通胀预期以及央行增持黄金储备的大背景下,黄金价格从2008年年底的不到900美元,三度冲“千”,最终站在了1000美元／盎司之上,一度飙升至1200多美元,超越了2002年以来黄金牛市的最高点。2009年年末,迪拜危机来袭,希腊各国相继陷入主权信用危机之中,黄金价格却依旧在金融危机中坚挺。     

黄金发威"涨"字当头

"金价不怕创新高,千元时代只等闲".继2008年的金融风暴中异军突起,2009年突破千元大关之后再接再厉,2010年11月,国际现货金价首破每盎司1400美元.国内黄金价格,也突破每克300元.而从2011年初的市场反应来看,这一局面有望继续维持.     

黄金市场扑朔迷离

自今年2月29日创年内高点每盎司1792.2美元以来,纽约市场黄金期货价格一路震荡向下,进入5月以来更是在1540至1640美元之间波动,尽管盛夏期间市场表现稍有起色,但随着美联储(FED)在会议纪要中明确指出近期若无特别的紧急状况不会出台新一轮宽松措施,QE3推出的预期减弱背后,美元的相对强势令黄金价格承压。这使得投资者此前的预期落空,所有风险资产也应声下跌,而部分市场投资者更是预期黄金价格会下跌到1530美元左右。     

大宗商品价格逆势上涨潜藏风险

<正>近日,来自巴克莱银行的报告显示,今年大宗商品市场的总投资额已达到508亿美元,创下自2009年以来的同期最高水平。2016年初至今,黄金价格上涨接近30%。美国商品期货交易委员会的西得克萨斯中质油原油期货价格从2016年1月份低点的27.5美元/桶升至目前的43美元/桶,涨幅高达56%。世界银行的报告也指出,今年以来,从大豆到钻石等所有大宗商品的价格都实现了重要复苏,大宗商品"最糟糕的日子已经过去"。     

黄金价格:"疯狂"的一年

自2008年10月次贷危机全面爆发以来,国际黄金价格一路走高,不断刷新高点,至2009年12月已最高上探到1200美元/盎司的高位.12月3日,在美元持续贬值的刺激下,纽约商品交易所黄金期货2月合约每盎司上涨5.30美元,收于1218.30美元,该合约最高上涨至1227.50美元的历史新高.     

金价仍呈上升趋势

今年上半年,国际市场黄金价格几度起落,然而总的趋势是不断上升的。年初纽约市场的黄金价格为每盎司390美元,以后金价不断上升,5月19日金价升到476.95美元,为1984年以来黄金价格的最高水平;6月底金价为447.30美元,同年初相比,黄金价格上升了14.4%。黄金价格上升的主要原因是:(1)受美元汇价变化的影响。一般来说,美元汇价下跌,金价上升;美元汇价上升,金价下跌。由于美国外贸巨额逆差的局面迟迟得不到扭转,     

黄金熊市远未结束

资金撤出金市流向风险资产,美困退出QE带来的美元走强以及中、印实物金需求的下滑,都将继续施压金价。自4月初黄金暴跌以来,黄金价格经历了较大幅度的波动。纽约黄金价格在6月份曾经最低下探至1179美元／盎司,也曾在8月底最高上涨至1434美元／盎司。但截至11月11日,整体上看,金价已经自1600美元／盎司左右跌至1300美元／盎司以下,几乎跌去了20％。很多实物金投资者都已套牢,     

国际黄金价格涨落的原因和趋势

黄金,近几年来由于它的价格大涨大落,引起了世界上很多人的关注和议论。黄金价格大涨大落的情况 70年代初,黄金价格每盎司仅为35美元。1979年以来,金价一直迅猛上升,从年初的每盎司226美元上升到年底的524美元,特别是从去年以来,金价更是火箭式上升:1月3日,634美元;1月16日,760美元;1月18日,835美元;1月21日达到了历史上黄金价格的最高峰每盎司875美元。但达到这个高峰仅2天,以后金价又出现了大跌,3月下旬跌至474美     

后疫情下的黄金投资

黄金价格在经历了 2020年的大幅上涨后,上行动力逐渐减弱.2021年初至今,黄金价格振荡波动,呈"V"型走势. 前三个月,金价不断回落,从390元/克跌至356.79元/克,而后两个月又快速反弹.截至5月28日,金价回升至388.82元/克,与年初基本持平,微跌0.3％.同期,原油价格上涨38％、CRB商品指数上涨23％,铂、钯等贵金属,铜、铝、铅、锌等有色金属的价格涨幅均超黄金.     

努力扩大内需,保持稳定发展

从2000年下半年以来,世界经济发展出现新的变化:一是受美日经济下滑尤其是美国"911"事件的影响,2001年世界增长速度将从2000年的4.8%回落到2%左右;二是世界贸易经济增长率将从上年的12.4%回落到5%左右.伴随着世界经济的减速,我国出口增长大幅度回落,外需不足的问题逐渐显现.2001年1-9月份出口额同比增长7%,比上年27.8%的增长率下降了20多个百分点,外贸顺差下降到134亿美元,同比减少56亿美元.     

我国黄金期货市场功能发挥的实证研究

本文运用协整检验、Granger因果检验、Garbade-Silber模型、误差修正模型等对2008年1月9日到2008年11月14日上海期货交易所黄金期货合约的价格发现功能和套期保值功能进行研究,结果表明:黄金现货价格对期货价格存在单向引导关系,在价格发现功能中,黄金现货价格起着决定性的作用,期货市场价格发现功能相对较弱。     

Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty

This study focuses on the dynamics of the gold price against bonds, stocks and exchange rates based on a disaggregation of the underlying relationships across different frequencies applying a wavelet decomposition. To analyze joint extreme movements (i.e. tail dependence), we adopt a copula approach, which helps us to assess the dependence between the returns of gold and other assets in calm and turmoil market times and therefore the hedge and safe haven functions of gold. We also examine whether gold prices are directly affected by changes in macroeconomic uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and/or CPI forecasters disagreement. Analyzing data for nine economies for a sample period starting in 1985, we find that the role of gold changes significantly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Gold is unable to serve as a hedge or safe haven in the classical sense while the findings for the period prior to 2008 mostly suggest that gold is able to shield investors. Uncertainty measures display a surprising and time-varying relationship with the path of the gold price. While economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with gold price changes, macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty among forecasters are both negatively related to gold price changes.     

Can Companies Use Hedging Programs to Profit from the Market? Evidence from Gold Producers*

In this article, the authors summarize the findings of their recent study of the hedging activities of 92 North American gold mining companies during the period 1989‐1999. The aim of the study was to answer two questions: (1) Did such hedging activities increase corporate cash flows? (2) And if yes, were such increases the result of management's ability to anticipate price movements when adjusting their hedge ratios? Although the author's answer to the first question is “yes,” their answer to the second is “no.” More specifically, the authors concluded that:

• ? During the 1989‐1999 period, the gold derivatives market was characterized by a persistent positive risk premium— that is, a positive spread between the forward price and the realized future spot price—that caused short forward positions to generate positive cash flows. The gold mining companies that hedged their future gold production realized an average total cash flow gain of $11 million, or $24 per ounce of gold hedged, per year, as compared to average annual net income of only $3.5 million. Because of the positive risk premium, short derivatives positions did not generate significant losses even during those subperiods of the study when the gold price increased.
• ? There was considerable volatility in corporate hedge ratios during the period of the study, which is consistent with managers incorporating market views into their hedging programs and attempting to time the market by hedging selectively. But after attempting to distinguish between derivatives activities designed to hedge and those designed to profit from a view, the authors conclude that corporate efforts to time the market through selective hedging were largely if not completely futile. In fact, the companies' adjustments of hedge ratios appeared to consistently lag instead of leading the market.

     

中美黄金市场的价格发现和动态条件相关性研究

本文运用向量误差修正模型、Hasbrouck信息份额分析法和Engle(2002)提出的动态条件相关多元GARCH模型,研究从2004年11月18日至2008年11月17日期间,中国黄金市场与美国黄金市场的价格发现和动态条件相关性。实证结果发现:中国黄金市场现货和美国黄金市场期货、ETF三者间存在长期均衡关系,美国黄金市场ETF和期货在价格发现过程中居主导地位;中美黄金市场间的相关性随时间变化而动态改变,上海黄金交易所开设夜市交易及延长夜市交易时间,增加了两个市场的关联性,但中国黄金期货的推出和2008年全球金融危机的加深,又使中美黄金市场间的相关性有所降低。     

A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks and forecasted asset return correlations. Importantly, using realized correlations estimated from high-frequency equity return data can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasted correlations. Our stress testing methodology, using an integrated micro–macro model, takes into account dynamic linkages between the health of major US banks and macro-financial conditions. Our results suggest that the theoretical insurance premium that would be charged to protect against losses that equal or exceed 15% of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008 and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in July 2008.     

Commodity markets through the business cycle

From 2008 to 2011, commodity markets experienced growing attention from the banking industry for various reasons: the summer 2008 oil price swing, the price surge in an ounce of gold, or sharp variations in agricultural prices. As a consequence, can we hypothesize the existence of a global connection between commodities and economic cycles? If these recent events suggest that commodity markets are strongly related to the business cycle, this evidence goes nevertheless against the widespread intuition that commodity markets are a strong source of diversification in a standard cash–bond–equity portfolio. Based on a data-set from 1990 to present, this paper investigates this issue by (i) looking at the reaction of commodity markets to economic news, and (ii) using a Markov regime-switching model to analyse economic regimes and commodity markets as an asset class.     

国人通信

2006年3月30日，深圳国人通信公司在纳斯达克上市，收报于19美元，比18美元的IPO价格上涨了一美元。[编者按]     

Tracking the Evolution of Idiosyncratic Risk and Cross-Sectional Expected Returns for US REITs

This paper adopts the methodology in Bali and Cakici (Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis, 43, 29–58, 2008) in tracking the evolution of the relation between equity REITs’ idiosyncratic risk and their cross-sectional expected returns between 1981 and 2010. In addition to the full sample period, we study this relation for (i) January 1981–December 1992, (ii) January 1993–September 2001, (iii) November 2001–August 2008 and (iv) November 2001–December 2010 and produce empirical results for (i) all sample REITs, (ii) REITs with a price greater than $10 or (iii) REITs with a price greater than $5. Each period represents different dynamics (including the Global Financial Crisis) in the life of the REIT industry and leads to a different hypothesis. Further, we present comparative results based on the Fama-French 3- and 4-factor models. Overall, we document a negative relation between idiosyncratic risk and cross-sectional expected returns and demonstrate that this negative relation changes over time. These findings amplify the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle,” as reported in the recent finance literature. Interestingly, REITs with a price of $5-to-$10 do well in 2009 and 2010. Further, the momentum factor appears to be influential since the first-ever listing of a REIT in the S&P500 Index in early October 2001.     

黄金价格上涨与国际货币体系的新变革

近年来,黄金价格屡创新高,文章认为,经物价指数调整后,当前黄金价格仍处于价值回归过程。金价上涨与通胀风险显现、黄金的市场及官方需求增加密切相关,但从更深层次看,本轮金价的持续上涨预示着国际货币体系的新变革。当前,我们应利用这一战略机遇,从推进金融市场建设、拓展人民币跨境贸易使用范围等方面,积极做好支持人民币走出去战略的相关基础建设。     

Gold mining companies and the price of gold

This paper studies the exposure of Australian gold mining firms to changes in the gold price. We use a theoretical framework to formulate testable hypotheses regarding the gold exposure of gold mining firms. The empirical analysis based on all gold mining firms in the S&;P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index for the period from January 1980 to December 2010 finds that the average gold beta is around one but varies significantly through time. The relatively low average gold beta is attributed to the hedging and diversification of gold mining firms. We further find an asymmetric effect in gold betas, i.e. the gold exposure increases with positive gold price changes and decreases with negative gold price changes consistent with gold mining companies exercising real options on gold.