The meta‐governance of risk and new technologies: GM crops and mobile telephones

The stylistic shift from government to governance in the regulation of risks associated with new technologies is often portrayed as an attempt to reach a deeper consensus over public controversies and to avoid future risk management failures. Stakeholder involvement in decision‐making through more inclusive and learning styles is seen as increasingly necessary in order to correct the steering deficit of the state, to rebuild trust in state institutions, and to obviate problems caused by uncertainty and different value perspectives in risk assessments. In this paper we scrutinise this model of risk and governance in the light of recent developments in the UK, focusing in particular on the regulation of genetically modified crops and mobile telecommunications technology. We conclude that the shift to governance is best understood in terms of the accommodative response of the state to a number of new challenges: primarily posed by the changing role of the private sector; by pressures on government to engender public trust in the face of shifting social values; and by the related difficulty in taking decisions with confidence and legitimacy. There is a perceived need within government for a more deliberative approach to regulation and standard‐setting, achieved by a creative combination of managed scientific order and the establishment of deliberative cooperative institutions. However the creation of deliberative mechanisms and institutions is not an easy passage, especially if it is accelerated by uncontrollable political events. Indeed, we caution against romantic interpretations of governance as indicating a uniform popular trend towards the democratisation of state decision‐making, despite the very real opportunities for reform that it affords. Rather, we suggest that a more plausible account is provided by seeing governance as a form of adaptive management necessitated by a series of interlocking economic and social changes, and responses to successive risk management crises.     

The development of digital payments – Past,present, and future – From the literature

We seek to deepen and increase knowledge on the evolution of scholarship regarding digital payments by highlighting the main interpretative strands in the literature and the changes, if any, in research approaches. Using bibliometric and scientometric measures, we explore research hotspots and developmental trends in digital payments to identify influential aspects of published contributions and research streams. Our sample consists of 723 articles published between 1985 and 2021 obtained from the Web of Science. The results show that the most investigated digital payments are mobile payments, with the main analysis methodologies typically linked to technology adoption models. This review, original in terms of sample size and methodology, advances knowledge on the evolution of innovative payments and guides scholars in visualising various research models.     

Taking notice of risk culture – the regulator’s approach

Following the financial crisis and a series of mis-selling and ‘rigging’ scandals in the financial services, organisational culture, and particularly the risk culture of organisations, has come to be regarded as a key issue for both financial firms and their regulators This paper considers the extent to which regulatory published notices, ‘Final Notices’ (FNs), relating to breaches of the regulatory Handbook, are able to provide lessons, or pointers, in the development of ‘appropriate’ cultures. By undertaking a qualitative content analysis of all the FNs in 2012, we examine the extent to which FNs draw attention to issues of culture, and to the regulator’s analysis of the drivers of culture published as part of its treating customers fairly (TCF) initiative. The analysis finds that, although not easy to extract, there are important learning points in FNs relating to organisational culture, and in particular to the factors driving behaviours and outcomes that are signs of poor culture. This paper suggests that, whilst it may not be for a regulator to dictate firms’ culture, it could do much more to make use of the content of FNs as a learning tool for firms; particularly in the context of its cultural framework for TCF. This would support the ‘outcomes-based’ approach being espoused by the UK’s regulators.     

Trapped in diversification – another look at the risk of fund of hedge funds

Recent literature implies that despite being more diversified, fund of hedge funds (FOFs) are exposed to tail risk. We propose an explanation for this phenomenon; tail risk is a systematic risk factor for hedge funds, which by construction, explains the higher portion of the returns in the diversified portfolios. Our study suggests that not only an additional tail risk factor improves the explanatory power of the factor model, the relative importance of tail risk factor increases with the number of underlying hedge funds in an FOF portfolio. Furthermore, we demonstrate that FOFs with a short history, higher management fees, leverage and requiring shorter lockup periods are more sensitive to tail risk.     

Political–security risk in the oil and gas industry: the impact of terrorism on risk management and mitigation

Oil and gas companies are experiencing an increase in terrorist attacks. The industry became a legitimate target for terrorist groups in the 1990s and the number of attacks have increased yearly, with a spike after the 9/11 attacks. In today’s interconnected world, political risk is not only about the relationship between the host government and the company. Oil and gas companies may experience risks on a transnational, national and human security level. The success of new investments often depends on the successful utilization of risk management strategies. This study focuses on the importance of political–security risk in the oil and gas industry. In January 2013, the oil and gas industry experienced one of its deadliest attacks at the In Amenas gas facility in Algeria, forcing firms to reconsider its focus on security management. Statoil undertook a thorough analysis of security at the site as well as of the company′s corporate security risk management. The report revealed a lack of focus on political–security risk. This study argues that political–security risk has not been used to its full potential in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has always focused on site security, but a broader more holistic approach to risk management has been lacking. As a result of the In Amenas incident, the industry has become more willing to have a new discussion on security and this has resulted in changes in the way companies operate.     

Coping with risk: analysis on the importance of integrating social perceptions on flood risk into management mechanisms – the case of the municipality of Águeda,Portugal

The paper reflects on how populations prone to flood risk perceive such hazards and the way this perception has or has not been incorporated into the measures and mechanisms of flood risk management. The frequent occurrence of flooding, as well as the population's vulnerability and exposure to this risk, shows that the municipality of Águeda is a paradigmatic case for analysis of these issues. Similar to the rest of the country, the municipality of Águeda has been neglecting the multidimensional nature of flood risk. The data collected present some disparity between the proposals and technical perspectives regarding the management and mitigation of flood risk and the perception of local populations. In addition, neither knowledge of social perception of flood risk nor of the local communities is being integrated in a substantial and pro‐active way, whether in the processes of policy‐making or in the implementation of these policies. Empirical evidence equally shows that there is a clear tendency towards acceptance and coping with flood risk by the population in the municipality of Águeda. This seems to be connected to the local populations' recognition that though it is impossible to eliminate risk, there are at the same time advantages to occupying the floodplains.     

Welfare and technology in the network society—Concerns for the future of welfare

The last decade of explosive innovation thanks to the growth of information and communication technologies (ICT) has left the public sector, and particularly the provision of welfare services, largely unchanged. Where socialising, commerce, information finding, entertainment and travel have all undergone profound structural transformations, the workings of government have not seen a similar shift. To be sure, the pace of decision-making has been sped up, as it has elsewhere, by Blackberries, and a small number of services are delivered online. But these services are still based around their offline equivalents, and usually aim simply at cutting the costs associated with their delivery by moving online. While this will continue to be a key motivation for the digitisation of government, other more fundamental developments are set to take place which will herald new online-only services, and which will encourage radical decentralisation of power.The first part of this paper will look at the private sector's experience over the past decade for clues as to why the public sector has moved relatively slowly, and likely directions of development in coming years. We will also here present evidence from our own forecasts of the likely narrowing of the digital divide. The next two sections will then deal with future developments in more detail, firstly looking at ICT's future role in welfare service delivery, and secondly at the ways in which it might be used for greater citizen engagement, and the reshaping of power structures that will result from this. The final section will examine some conflicts that arise from this reorientation away from the centre.     

Equity and Liabilities – A Discussion of IAS 32 and a Critique of the Classification

Abstract

It is a traditional convention in accounting to distinguish between two classes of claims, liabilities and equity. The International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have been using a dichotomous classification approach, adhering to this convention. However, over the recent years, this approach has been put under stress. First, there is an ever-growing variety of hybrid financial instruments, some of which designed to exploit this classification approach (accounting arbitrage). Second, the adoption of IFRS in Europe and elsewhere has brought scenarios to light in which the classification approach does not result in decision-useful information. These issues arise when IFRS are applied by entities in legal forms other than a private or public limited company. This essay discusses IAS 32 in the light of the historic origins of the dichotomous classification approach, the recent standard-setting activities and a review of the empirical research. This essay suggests that a reconsideration of the traditional dichotomous classification might be a way forward.     

Complexity and transdisciplinarity – Discontinuity,levels of Reality and the Hidden Third

In this paper some insights gained from contemporary theories of Complexity are used to illuminate several aspects of a theory of Transdisciplinarity and vice versa. These aspects include the notions of discontinuity, levels of Reality and the Hidden Third, which are all central components of the transdisciplinary framework. The mutual influence of these two fields on each other opens up further possibilities for research. This paper aims to explore these possibilities in more detail.     

The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?

By positing learning and a pessimistic initial prior, we build a model that disconnects a representative consumer's subjective attitudes toward risk from the high price of risk that a rational-expectations econometrician would deduce from financial market data. We follow Friedman and Schwartz [1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1857-1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] in hypothesizing that the Great Depression heightened fears of economic instability. We use a robustness calculation to elicit a pessimistic prior for a representative consumer and let him update beliefs via Bayes’ law. Learning eventually erases pessimism, but while it persists, pessimism contributes a volatile multiplicative component to the stochastic discount factor that a rational-expectation econometrician would detect. With sufficient initial pessimism, the model generates substantial values for the market price of risk and equity premium and predicts high Sharpe ratios and forecastable excess stock returns.     

Between bricolage and breakthroughs—framing the many faces of public sector innovation

Public sector innovation is often seen through the lens of private sector frameworks. This paper discusses to what extent the innovation typology derived from the private sector is appropriate for public sector contexts. Based on a discretionary classification of 1,536 qualitative examples of public sector innovations, the authors examine the nuances of change spanning from learning and incremental change to radical and systemic innovation. Measurement frameworks should better reflect the heterogeneity of learning and innovation in the public sector.     

Unrecognized,concealed, or forgotten – the case of absent information in risk communication

There are differing and partially incompatible views about what kind of issues should be included into risk discussions and what kinds of risks should be emphasized and dealt with. While the emergence of new risks has been extensively studied, relatively little attention has been paid to the roles that the absence of information can play in risk debates. Potentially relevant information may be downplayed or omitted and less relevant overemphasized when actors with varying interests, knowledge bases, and risk frames interact. Multiple and cumulative environmental and health risks caused by chemicals and other stressors pose particular challenges for risk communication. We identify and discuss different forms of unrecognized, hidden, and forgotten information by using chemical risks as a case. A widely applicable typology of absent information in risk communication is outlined.     

The weak human and the saving grace of the welfare state: German pupils’ perception of future social change and drivers of change

Social change has often been seen as a desired goal of critical pedagogy. Interestingly; there is little research about how pupils in Germany perceive the concept of social change and what drives social change. This article presents the outcome of a three year long research project that aimed to analyse how a sample of German pupils makes sense of social change and what forces drive social change in society through future narratives (written assignments and interviews). The study finds that pupils have an implicit and explicit understanding of politics and the state as a driving force, but that this is challenged by external drivers such as the global economy/technology and internal drivers such as human self-interest/egoism and insecurity/fear. In this study, the pupils often describe the present economy as being organised and the future economy to become more and more disorganised. Using future narratives in critical pedagogy can be a way to work more closely with the students and their perceptions of social change and drivers of change.     

What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space,CDS spreads and market pricing of risk

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for fifty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005–10. We focus in particular on five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Dynamic panel estimates show that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically and economically important determinants of sovereign risk. However, risk-pricing of the Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We match the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. Eurozone Periphery default risk is priced much higher than the matched countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that these economies switched to a “pessimistic” self-fulfilling expectational equilibrium. An alternative interpretation is that the market prices not on current but future fundamentals, expecting adjustment challenges in the Eurozone periphery to be more difficult for than the matched group of middle-income countries because of exchange rate and monetary constraints.     

Personal taxes and the time variation of stock returns – evidence from the UK

A potential explanation for the time-series predictability of market returns with dividend yields is the differential tax treatment of capital gains and dividends. This article investigates to what extent the predictability of long-horizon returns can be explained by this tax effect. Assuming that after-tax expected returns are constant, we test the derived relationships between pretax returns and lagged dividend yields with UK data. We also compare the predictability of before-tax long-horizon returns with that of after-tax returns. The results indicate that the tax treatment of dividends does not significantly contribute towards the predictability of stock returns.     

Is managerial ability a moderator? The effect of credit risk and liquidity risk on the likelihood of bank default

This study investigates the effect of credit and liquidity risks as well as the moderating role of managerial ability on the likelihood of European commercial bank default during the period 2006 to 2017. We employ data envelopment analysis and a tobit model to measure banks' efficiency, the z-score to measure the likelihood of their default, and perform endogeneity and model specification robustness tests. Our results reveal that both risks significantly affect the likelihood of bank default and that the high skill of managers does not attenuate this effect. Rather, in the case of credit risk, managerial ability extenuates this effect. Managerial overconfidence and narcissism may explain the latter result. Another plausible explanation is that highly skilled managers who are likely to be rewarded with performance-based compensation schemes may be incentivized to hide bad news for an extended period of time. Such a scenario would increase the likelihood of bank default.     

Governance and bank characteristics in the credit and sovereign debt crises – the impact of CEO power

The global financial sector recently suffered from two interrelated crises: the credit crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. A common question is whether the recent experience with the credit crisis has helped in dealing with the sovereign debt crisis. We study more specifically whether banks with powerful CEOs perform better or worse than other banks, and if there is any difference in this relationship between the two crises. Using unique hand-collected data for 378 large global banks, we find that CEO power has a significant positive relation to bank profitability and asset quality, but also to insolvency risk, during the sovereign debt crisis. Thus, strong CEOs do not appear to be detrimental to bank performance. Our results also support the idea that deposit insurance may have contributed to the credit crisis.