Safety attitudes,behaviour, anxiety and perceived control among professional and non-professional drivers

The current study aimed to investigate differences in psychological safety factors such as attitudes and behaviour among professional and non-professional drivers. Differences in accident involvement and the number of speeding tickets were also investigated. An additional aim was to study factors associated with risky driver behaviour and speeding tickets in these groups. A questionnaire survey was distributed by mail to a randomly selected sample from the Norwegian population registry (N?=?6203). The response rate was 30% and the final sample consisted of 1864 individuals. Adjusted for demographic characteristics and road traffic exposure the results showed that professional drivers (n?=?113) reported significantly less seat belt use and watchful driving than non-professional drivers (n?=?1594). Professional drivers reported significantly less fun riding and safer attitudes regarding addressing the unsafe driving of others. The professional drivers also reported significantly safer behaviour related to drink driving, but lower priorities of road traffic safety. Professional drivers perceived significantly more control and had been involved in more accidents than the non-professional drivers. The results suggest that professional drivers may constitute a risk group in road traffic. Further research could focus on barriers of seat belt use and mechanisms, which could promote safety priorities in this driver group. The knowledge gained by such studies could be utilised by company managers in order to promote safer behaviour among professional drivers.     

Comparative optimism and risky road traffic behaviors among high‐risk sports practitioners

This study examines the relationship between participation in risky sports, comparative optimism (CO), and risky road traffic behaviors among a sample of adult men. We surveyed high‐risk (n = 313) and low‐risk (n = 53) sports practitioners, and non‐sportsmen (n = 89), assessing their CO, as well as their self‐reported risky behaviors and their accident experiences while driving a car. Results show that high‐risk sports practitioners expressed CO regarding the quality of their reflexes while driving and their vulnerability to traffic accidents. High‐risk sportsmen reported more risky behaviors while driving a car than the members of the other groups, and some of them, namely BASE‐jumpers, have experienced more traffic accidents. High‐risk sportsmen’s risky behaviors and accident experiences did not prevent them from expressing CO regarding their vulnerability to road accidents. Results are discussed, as well as putative psychological mechanisms underlying high‐risk sport practitioners’ CO and risky behaviors while driving.     

On the Consequences of Behavioral Adaptations in the Cost–Benefit Analysis of Road Safety Measures

It is sometimes argued that road safety measures or automobile safety standards fail to save lives because safer highways or safer cars induce more dangerous driving. A similar but less extreme view is that ignoring the behavioral adaptation of drivers would bias the cost–benefit analysis of a traffic safety measure. This article derives cost–benefit rules for automobile safety regulation when drivers may adapt their risk‐taking behavior in response to changes in the quality of the road network. The focus is on the financial externalities induced by accidents because of the insurance system as well as on the consequences of drivers' risk aversion. We establish that road safety measures are Pareto improving if their monetary cost is lower than the difference between their (adjusted for risk aversion) direct welfare gain with unchanged behavior and the induced variation in insured losses due to drivers' behavioral adaptation. The article also shows how this rule can be extended to take other accident external costs into account.     

面板数据下的线性混合模型及其在车险费率厘定中的应用

精算师在进行车险净保费信度厘定时可采用关于面板数据的线性混合模型,本文采用每次交通事故平均损失额和事故发生频率作为车险净保费的计算指标。利用2008~2012年31个省、市、自治区5年的数据,建立面板数据下的线性混合模型,选取人均地区生产总值、每平方公里人口数、民用汽车拥有量作为解释变量,得到每次交通事故平均损失额和事故发生频率的估计模型,进而得到纯保费估计。这一研究可为车险费率市场化提供一定的理论支持和参考。     

Aircraft safety analysis using clustering algorithms

In recent years, there have been many cost-benefit studies on aviation safety, which deal mainly with economic issues, omitting some strictly technical aspects. This study compares aircraft accidents in relation to the characteristics of the aircraft, environmental conditions, route, and traffic type. The study was conducted using a database of over 1500 aircraft accidents worldwide, occurring between 1985 and 2010. The data were processed and then aggregated into groups, using cluster analysis based on an algorithm of partition binary ‘Hard c means.’ For each cluster, the ‘cluster representative’ accident was identified as the average of all the different characteristics of the accident. Moreover, a ‘hazard index’ was defined for each cluster (according to annual movements); using this index, it was possible to establish the dangerousness of each ‘cluster’ in terms of aviation accidents. Obtained results allowed the construction of an easy-to-use predictive model for accidents using multivariate analysis.     

Testing for Offsetting Behavior and Adverse Recruitment Among Drivers of Airbag-Equipped Vehicles

Earlier studies reported that an insurance industry index of personal‐injury claims rose after automobiles adopted driver's side airbags and that drivers of airbag‐equipped vehicles were more likely to be at fault in fatal multivehicle accidents. These findings can be explained by the offsetting behavior hypothesis or by at‐risk drivers systematically selecting vehicles with airbags (i.e., adverse recruitment). We test for offsetting behavior and adverse recruitment after airbag adoption using a database containing information on fatal accidents including information on drivers' previous records and drivers' actions that contributed to the occurrence of the accident. Further, we reexamine the personal injury claims index data for newly airbag‐equipped vehicles and show that the rise in the index after airbag adoption may be attributable to moral hazard and a new vehicle ownership pattern. Rental car drivers are much more likely to commit grievous acts than other drivers, and the proportion of new automobiles in daily rental service more than doubled during the period of airbag adoption.     

An analysis of reported driver behaviour in samples of domestic and expatriate Iranians

Objective: Few studies have examined the differences in self-reported driver behaviour between drivers of one nationality who live in their country of origin (domestic drivers) and those who live abroad (expatriate drivers). This study aimed to explore the differences in self-reported driver behaviour among domestic and expatriate Iranian drivers. In addition, we explore the factors associated with self-reported accident involvement including personal injuries in these groups. Methods: A web-based version of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) measuring self-reported driver errors and violations was distributed to respondents by availability sampling in social networks and by bulk email services. About 1000 individuals living in all provinces in Iran were invited to participate in the survey. We also invited Iranians living in more than 20 countries. A total of 634 domestic Iranians and 135 expatriate Iranians responded to our enquiry. The measure of driving behaviour asked the respondents about violations and error conduct during the last two years on any kind of road. The sample of domestic and expatriate drivers did not differ significantly in gender, age, education and driving hours per day. Domestic drivers were more likely to have experienced an accident in their lifetime. Both samples were relatively young of age (Domestic M integer?=?28.53, SD?=?6.85; Expatriate M integer?=?29.21, SD?=?7.71). Results: The results suggested that emotional violations were more common among the drivers living in Iran. Emotional violations and driver errors were related to self-reported accident involvement among domestic drivers while ordinary rule violations were associated with such accidents in the expatriate group. Conclusions: Iranian expatriate drivers reported less emotional violations than domestic drivers. A potential reason is that road traffic infrastructure and regulation enforcement in high-income developed countries do not facilitate emotional violations. Implications for road traffic safety and methodological limitations of the study are discussed.     

Risk management; a behavioural perspective

The risk contributor is usually regarded as responsible for risk mitigation and accident compensation, especially when the risk is due to the operation of a commercial company. The culpability of risk has resulted in several approaches to safety management. Risk management based on quantitative risk analysis (QRA) emerged in the defence and nuclear industry during and after Second World War and is by now introduced in almost every industry with high-risk potential. During this period, risk analysis and management as a profession has evolved considerably. Technical failures and operator errors used to be considered as the prime causes of accidents in the early days of risk analysis. Based on investigations of major accidents in the latter half of the last century, poor safety culture and mismanagement were introduced as possible additional causes of major accidents. Human error in decision-making is, however, rarely quantified and thus not included in QRA. Knowledge from the experimental analysis of behaviour is absent in practical or operational risk management. This paper advocates an approach to risk management where the decision part of the chain of events is explicitly included. The behavioural perspective introduced implies that the application of experimentally based behaviour science and QRA both should be pursued, mainly because QRA is a strong, and probably the best, defence against decision errors. In an operational situation, management must do trade-offs between objectives where safety is but one of several considerations. When the risk is not quantified, safety loses out to other more easily quantified objectives of a company. The fatal decision error that led to the Challenger accident is used as an example.     

The role of safety culture/climate and social cognitive factors for driving behaviors of Turkish professional drivers transporting petroleum products

The present study aimed to examine and compare the role of safety culture/climate and social cognitive factors on driving behaviors in a group of Turkish professional drivers transporting petroleum products. A questionnaire survey was conducted in a sample of 119 male drivers working for an oil company. The questionnaire included items related to demographic information and driving history; perceptions about the safety culture/climate of the company; fatalism; traffic risk perception; road safety attitudes; and driving behaviors. The results showed that being a truck driver compared to being a tanker driver was positively related to driving violations, while commitment to the management safety was negatively related to driving violations. On the other hand, safe attitudes towards speeding were negatively related to driving errors/lapses. Fatalism was positively related to both driving violations and errors/lapses. Also, compared to tanker drivers, truck drivers reported more violations and errors/lapses, a lower traffic risk perception and higher fatalism. Implications for the safety of professional drivers working for oil companies are discussed.     

Comprehensive indicators of traffic-related premature mortality

Motor vehicle circulation is associated with multiple social benefits; nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that it also produces a variety of adverse health effects, of which the most relevant are associated with mortality from road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollution. Though in Chile these impacts have been quantified and evaluated independently, no indicators have been developed so far to account for this activity’s global impact on public health, or to express the individual impact that can be attributed to each vehicle category. In order to fill this void, the present study aimed at designing and quantifying indicators that account for the global impact on health that different motor vehicle categories impose on Chilean society. Health impact was quantified as the number of expected premature deaths caused by road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollutants. Total premature mortality was understood as the total annual deaths that occurred as a consequence of road accidents and the exposure to O₃ and PM_2.5 derived from traffic-related emissions of its precursors. All estimations were made considering Chile’s Metropolitan Region in 2005 as a basic scenario. Differentiated indicators were obtained for 15 vehicle categories as a function of different parameters: traveled kilometer, vehicle, and vehicle lifetime. According to our results, when the health impact of traffic accidents and exposure to traffic-related air pollution are considered simultaneously, major differences were observed with the indicators traditionally used by regulators involved in the traffic-related decision-making process. The implications of our results on risk management strategies are discussed.     

Perceived risk and value of workplace safety in a developing country

We examine the relationship between wages and perceived occupational health risks for petrochemical workers in Taiwan. We estimate hedonic wage functions to compare workers' wages to their perceived risks of fatal and disabling accidents. The results indicate that workers in risky jobs receive a compensating wage differential, after controlling for education, job tenure, and occupational classification. The values of mitigating health risks are estimated using models that control for both fatal and nonfatal accident risks, and so do not suffer the omitted-variable bias characteristic of most earlier studies. The estimated values of statistical life and disabling injury are US$624 000 and US$44 000 in 1995 dollars. We also find a positive relationship between quitting intentions and perceived job risk, which supports the hypothesis that workers' risk perceptions evolve with on-the-job experience.     

Consequences of perceived risk: Demand for mitigation

The theory of risk society claims that ‘individualisation’ has led social class positions to loose their significance in explaining risk and risk perceptions in late modernity. Using social survey data from England, this proposition was put to an empirical test for three types of risks: income loss, accident or illness, and poor customer service or advice. Regression analyses revealed that class position only affected perceptions of the risk of income loss, whereas the risks of accidents or illness and of poor customer service or advice were strongly shaped by welfare and value orientations. While other indicators of individualisation derived from the data failed to explain variations in risk perceptions, the strongest effect on current risk perceptions was the experience of risk events in the past, and awareness of and drawing on support systems. The findings demonstrate the need for risk theory to differentiate between types of risks and to draw out more clearly their sociological contexts in order to grasp fully the nature of perceptions of risk prevailing in late modern society.     

Predictors of safety behaviour among emergency responders on the highways

Safety behaviour is one of the main determinants of job-related accidents. Few studies have focused on safety behaviour of emergency responders. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the impact of psychosocial predictors on safety behaviour, taking into consideration a sample of Italian emergency responders operating on the highways (N?=?203). Results showed that adherence to safety procedures, reporting accident risk and use of individual protection devices were predicted by risk perception and safety climate. The attitude of priorities of rescue operations vs. safety predicted reporting accident risk. The conceptual and practical implications that emerged are discussed.     

养老机构安全事故演化机理和风险管控法治化路径

本文描述了火灾、疫病流行、侵犯人身权益等风险敞口在不同类型养老机构中的暴露程度,阐释了险源循着点源、离散集中源、线源、面源而演变,直至逼近临界点或遇有导火索而引爆事故的机理。本文结合养老机构事故案例分析发现:消除“不安全状态和不安全行为”是切断事故因果链的关键一环;路径依赖中的自我强化和沉没成本对安全管理升级产生不利影响。本文从法治化建设的视角对养老机构安全风险管控路径提出建议:赋予消防执法改革更高层级的法律依据;依法完善养老机构疫情防控举措和《养老机构服务合同》;注重安全风险管控中的补偏救弊;强化突发安全事故的应急处置等。本文基于对调研资料和相关案例由表及里的剖析,使这些来源于基层实践的素材能够在理论层面还原实践且具有政策价值。     

Comprehensive scenario analysis for mitigation of risks of the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul

In this paper, the results of a scenario analysis are presented using the models developed by the authors in their prior work. Therein an aggregate risk-simulation model of the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul was developed giving consideration to traffic rules, vessel profiles, pilotage services, meteorological, geographical conditions, and vessel scheduling. A risk assessment was carried out by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model to establish a baseline level of risk. Herein, 16 scenarios are described as modifications of the baseline scenario for the purpose of studying maritime risk mitigation in this geographic context. We have evaluated the impact of several factors such as vessel arrival rates, vessel pursuit distances, number of pilots, local traffic density, and vessel scheduling practices such as the single-lane traffic regime start time on safety risks. We also present a discussion on the impact of each factor on vessel passages and waiting times at both entrances of the Strait. We conclude with risk mitigation recommendations that reduce both risk and waiting times, and thus can be considered ‘win-win’ from both an operational and risk reduction perspective.     

The Impact of Rate Regulation on Claims: Evidence From Massachusetts Automobile Insurance

The article tests the hypothesis that insurance price subsidies created by rate regulation lead to higher insurance cost growth. The article makes use of data from the Massachusetts private passenger automobile insurance market, where cross‐subsidies were explicitly built into the rate structure through rules that limit rate differentials and differences in rate increases across driver rating categories. Two approaches are taken to study the potential loss cost reaction to the Massachusetts cross‐subsidies. The first approach compares Massachusetts with all other states while controlling for demographic, regulatory, and liability coverage levels. Loss cost levels that were about 29 percent above the expected level are found for Massachusetts during years 1978–1998, when premiums charged were those fixed by the state and included explicit subsidies for high‐risk drivers. A second approach considers changing cost levels across Massachusetts by studying loss cost changes by town and relating those changes to subsidy providers and subsidy receivers. Subsidy data based on accident year data for 1993–2004 show a significant and positive (relative) growth in loss costs and an increasing proportion of high‐risk drivers for towns that were subsidy receivers, in line with the theory of underlying incentives for adverse selection and moral hazard.     

IRB法下公司敞口组合的风险驱动因子计量研究

巴塞尔银行监管委员会针对防范信贷组合信用风险所需要的资本制定的内部评级法,通过风险驱动因子的变化来反映组合回报的变化,并根据风险权重函数,通过风险加权资产转化为与每一项信用风险敞口更准确匹配的资本要求.本文对违约概率、违约损失率、违约敞口、期限因素以及违约相关性等信贷组合信用风险的风险驱动因子的度量进行了综合研究.     

工伤认定复议案件审理若干问题研究

近年来涉及民生问题不服工伤认定的行政复议和行政诉讼案件明显增长。由于劳动保障部门在工伤认定方面的基础相对薄弱和有关工伤认定的法律法规的原则性,面对现实生活工伤事故发生情况的复杂性,行政部门与司法机关在对事实的认定及工伤认定标准的理解上往往分歧较大,增加了行政与司法在工伤认定上的矛盾与冲突,受到事故伤害的劳动者不服工伤认定行政判决,极易引发申诉、上诉,成为社会不稳定因素。对本质上属于社会法领域的工伤认定做法,建议参照交通事故责任认定做法,使工伤认定更为科学,使劳动者的合法权益得到更加及时有效的保障。     

Towards a new approach for the identification of atypical accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification (HAZID) in safety reports has become progressively more difficult to achieve. Several major accidents in Europe in recent years, such as Buncefield and Toulouse, were not even considered by their site ‘Seveso-II’ Safety Case. One of the reasons is that available HAZID methodologies take no notice of apparently least likely events. Nonidentified scenarios thus constitute a latent risk, whose management is extremely complex and open ended. For this reason, the EC project iNTeg-Risk, in one of its tasks, aimed to investigate the issue of atypical scenarios and explain how they could have been identified. This study wants to describe the approach used and its immediate results, paving the way towards a new method for the identification of atypical accident scenarios. An in-depth accident analysis of some of these accidents was performed, in order to outline general features of plants in which they occurred, their causes, consequences, and lessons learned. This analysis followed a precise common scheme, which allowed a systematic approach to the problem by the experts involved. Based on the findings, failures connected to risk management and risk appraisal were identified. Three main basic issues in risk appraisal were identified: the low perception of emerging risks related to atypical accident scenarios, the lack of knowledge about related events, such as early warnings, and the incapability of current techniques in leading analysts to the identification of atypical scenarios.     

An inductive reasoning approach for building system safety risk models of aviation accidents

An inductive reasoning approach is employed to develop a prototype hybrid decision support tool whose main objective is to build probabilistic causal models representing the safety risk involved in aviation accidents. In this context, 15 aircraft accidents representative of five major accident types are selected to build an initial seed for the case‐base of the prototype tool. Consequently, within each individual accident model, main clusters of causal factors are identified for inclusion in the initial seed, thereby improving, both quantitatively and qualitatively, the case‐base of the prototype tool. A new methodology developed specifically for indexing aviation accidents into databases is used for indexing the initial seed into the case‐base of the tool. The resulting product is a highly customized conversational decision support tool that provides solution possibilities in the form of probabilistic causal models of accident scenarios retrieved and ranked according to their similarity to the current accident that the intended user investigates.