Use of Derivatives and Analysts’ Forecasts: New Evidence from Non‐financial Brazilian Companies

This study investigates whether market analysts’ forecasts are influenced by the presence of derivative financial instruments in listed firms. From a sample of firms comprising 1173 derivative users and 7797 non‐users for the 2006–14 period, the results indicate the existence of less error behaviour (bias) on earnings per share forecasts for derivative user firms compared to non‐user firms. This finding suggests that these instruments may be used to protect businesses and provide greater stability in the results of companies that use them. The presence of derivative financial instruments is increasing among listed firms, and management can use them for hedging or speculation (thus mitigating or increasing risk). The literature contains few studies on this issue, and the general understanding relies on the assumption that derivative financial instruments provide relevant information for decision making.     

Competition and Coalition among Underwriters: The Decision to Join a Syndicate

This paper studies the decision of lead investment banks to organize hybrid syndicates (commercial banks participating as co‐managers) versus pure investment bank syndicates. The findings show that hybrid underwriting issues are more challenging to float. Compared to pure investment bank syndicates, hybrid syndicates serve clients that are smaller, have lower common stock rankings and less prior access to the capital markets, rely more on bank loans, and invest less capital but issue larger amounts, which indicates that commercial banks' participation enhances hybrid services. Moreover, lead investment banks tend to invite banks' participation when clients exhibit higher loyalty in reusing their services.     

Accounting for financial instruments with characteristics of debt and equity: finding a way forward

Accounting for compound financial instruments, that is those with characteristics of both debt and equity, has challenged accounting standard setters for decades. The principles developed to distinguish liabilities and equity and the application of these principles in IAS 32 have been widely criticised. In 2016–2017, the IASB was engaged in a project to improve IAS 32. Our study presents research that is relevant to the issues faced by standard setters, related to improving the definitions and enhancing presentation and disclosure of liabilities and equity. We discuss studies investigating the effects of the accounting classification requirements on firms’ financing choices and on users’ decision‐making, to examine the question, ‘Does the distinction matter?’ We then explore various approaches that may be pursued by the standard setters to improve accounting in this area and identify areas for future research.     

Good decisions,bad decisions: the interaction of process and outcome in evaluations of decision quality

Process‐based considerations are generally accepted by experts and analysts as being the fundamental drivers of decision quality. However, little work has been done to account for the role of a risk management decision’s outcome as a key driver of the public judgments about decision quality. To this end, the objective of the research reported here was straightforward to determine – via an experiment – the relative importance of decision‐making process and the associated outcome in lay evaluations of decision quality. Our results demonstrate that people seem to have a difficult time unpacking decision‐making processes, even ones they strongly prefer, from their associated outcomes when evaluating decision quality. From a practical standpoint, our results cast doubt on the generally accepted belief that participatory and deliberative decision‐making processes (e.g., for risk management) will – on their own – contribute to positive evaluations of decision quality.     

CEO Power and Firm Performance under Pressure

Are powerful chief executive officers (CEOs) more effective in responding to pressure from the economic environment? Concentrating decision‐making power may facilitate rapid decision making; however, the quality of decision making may be compromised, with severe consequences for the firm if a powerful CEO is less likely to receive independent advice or to have her decisions scrutinized. We empirically investigate the performance of firms with powerful CEOs when industry conditions deteriorate. We focus on industry downturns as these represent an exogenous shock to a firm's environment and on settings in which CEO power and access to quality information is likely more consequential: innovative firms, firms with relatively little related‐industry board expertise, firms operating in competitive industries, and firms operating in industries characterized by relatively greater managerial discretion. In each of these settings we find powerful CEOs perform significantly worse than other CEOs, suggesting contexts in which centralized decision making is potentially of greater concern.     

Book Review

Organisational risk propensity directly affects the decision‐making behaviour of employees, with linked impacts on the ongoing prosperity of the organisation. The literature on an individual's risk behaviour is extensive. However, few studies investigate the risk propensity of an organisation. This study uses primary data from interviews within a major change programme in a FTSE100 pharmaceutical organisation to explore the characteristics of organisational risk propensity. The data are analysed using open coding procedures from Grounded Theory in order to fragment the category of ‘organisational risk propensity’ into some constituent properties and dimensions. An integrative framework is then inductively derived which provides insights into risk propensity within the case context; together with some cues for implementing changes to the organisation's risk propensity if so desired. The output from this research also provides a useful base from which to develop a survey instrument for assessing organisational risk propensity.     

Standard Business Reporting in Australia: efficiency,effectiveness, or both?

The benefits of using eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) as a business reporting standard have been widely canvassed in the extant literature, in particular, as the enabling technology for standard business reporting tools. One of the key benefits noted is the ability of standard business reporting to create significant efficiencies in the regulatory reporting process. Efficiency‐driven cost reductions are highly desirable by data and report producers. However, they may not have the same potential to create long‐term firm value as improved effectiveness of decision making. This study assesses the perceptions of Australian business stakeholders in relation to the benefits of the Australian standard business reporting instantiation (SBR) for financial reporting. These perceptions were drawn from interviews of persons knowledgeable in XBRL‐based standard business reporting and submissions to Treasury relative to SBR reporting options. The combination of interviews and submissions permit insights into the views of various groups of stakeholders in relation to the potential benefits. In line with predictions based on a transaction‐cost economics perspective, interviewees who primarily came from a data and report‐producer background mentioned benefits that centre largely on asset specificity and efficiency. The interviewees who principally came from a data and report‐consumer background mentioned benefits that centre on reducing decision‐making uncertainty and decision‐making effectiveness. The data and report consumers also took a broader view of the benefits of SBR to the financial reporting supply chain. Our research suggests that advocates of SBR have successfully promoted its efficiency benefits to potential users. However, the effectiveness benefits of SBR, for example, the decision‐making benefits offered to investors via standardised reports, while becoming more broadly acknowledged, remain not a priority for all stakeholders.     

Employment Quota System and Labour Market Outcomes of Individuals with Disabilities: Empirical Evidence from South Korea

To date, only a few studies have attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of disability employment quota systems using structural changes in policies. This study exploits the structural changes in South Korea's disability employment quota system that took place in 2004 and 2006 to expand the current disability policy evaluation literature. We separate the effect of these changes in the quota system into their effect on the probability of labour force participation and their effect on the probability of employment (after controlling for selection into the labour market). We also study the extent to which the changes – which included increasing the number of employers covered by the quota system, the number of jobs available to individuals with disabilities and the financial incentives for employing individuals with disabilities – have affected job satisfaction among individuals with disabilities. Our results suggest that the changes in the quota system may have increased labour force participation but have had a limited positive impact on the probability of employment among people with disabilities in South Korea. Further, compulsory hiring and expanded opportunities have not substantially affected the level of job satisfaction observed among employees with disabilities relative to their non‐disabled counterparts.     

Decisions and desire

When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.     

Using Four‐Moment Tail Risk to Examine Financial and Commodity Instrument Diversification

We consider the effect of higher moments on diversification, since most assets possess a potential for tail losses. In particular, we examine higher‐moment Value‐at‐Risk measures for individual instruments and diversified portfolios. We find that a naïve futures portfolio is consistently superior to common stock indexes. As few as ten randomly chosen instruments diversify away 85% of the unsystematic four‐moment tail risk. We also compare the two‐ and four‐moment tail risks for different size portfolios. Finally, the tail risk for naïve portfolios varies much less over time than other portfolios.     

Making Weak Instrument Sets Stronger: Factor‐Based Estimation of Inflation Dynamics and a Monetary Policy Rule

The problem of weak identification has recently attracted attention in the analysis of structural macroeconomic models. Using robust methods can result in large confidence sets making precise inference difficult. We overcome this problem in the analysis of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and a forward‐looking Taylor rule by employing stronger instruments. We suggest exploiting information from a large macroeconomic data set by generating factors and using them as additional instruments. This approach results in stronger instrument sets and hence smaller weak‐identification robust confidence sets. It allows us to conclude that there has been a shift toward more active monetary policy from the pre‐Volcker regime to the Volcker–Greenspan tenure.     

Overcoming Barriers to Life Insurance Coverage: A Behavioral Approach

While life insurance purchase decisions have long been studied, we still do not know how people decide if they need insurance or how much they need. Using in‐depth interviews, we peer into the black box of employee decision making to learn what people know about this employee benefit, and how they decide if it is of value for them. We find that individuals understand the need for life insurance, but find many behavioral economic barriers to getting adequate coverage, including mental accounting, money illusion, and a strong role of defaults. We then conduct an online experiment of the hypothetical employee‐benefit purchase scenario, and find a few, simple interventions could help individuals better decide their life insurance needs.     

Impact of intelligent decision aids on expert and novice decision-makers' judgments

Businesses have invested tremendous resources into intelligent decision aid development. A good match between user and aid may improve the expert decision‐maker's decision quality. However, novices may be prone to poorer decision‐making if intelligent decision aids are more expert than the user. The present paper provides an empirical test of the impact of decision aids on subjects with differential expertise levels. The results support the contention that intelligent decision aids aggravate bias in novices’ decision‐making but mitigate bias in experts’ decision‐making processes. Intelligent decision aids may be best viewed as complements to expert decision‐makers during complex problem analysis and resolution.     

Devolving Skills: The Case of the Apprenticeship Grant for Employers*

One rationale for devolution is that local decision makers may be well placed to adapt national policies to the local context. We test whether such adaptation helps meet programme objectives in the case of the Apprenticeship Grant for Employers. Originally a national programme, aimed at incentivising employers to take on apprentices, reforms a few years into operation gave some Local Authorities negotiated flexibilities in how the scheme operated. We consider the impact of the national scheme and then use a difference-in-differences approach to test whether flexibility led to an increase in the number of apprenticeship starts in devolved areas relative to control groups. We find that flexibility had zero effect. There is suggestive evidence that this is because flexibilities were negotiated on the wrong margins.     

Why Do Firms Use Incentives That Have No Incentive Effects?

This paper illustrates why firms might choose to implement stock option plans or other pay instruments that reward “luck.” I consider a model where adjusting compensation contracts is costly and where employees' outside opportunities are correlated with their firms' performance. The model may help to explain the use and recent rise of broad‐based stock option plans, as well as other financial instruments, even when these pay plans have no effect on employees' on‐the‐job behavior. The model suggests that agency theory's often‐overlooked participation constraint may be an important determinant of some common compensation schemes, particularly for employees below the highest executive ranks.     

The Effect of Making a Voluntary Labour Market Programme Compulsory: Evidence from a UK Experiment

This paper investigates the effects on employment and benefit receipt of making a voluntary active labour market programme compulsory. This policy change, which targeted long‐term unemployed people over the age of 50, was piloted in a number of areas within the UK and evaluated by individual random assignment of the requirement to participate. The results show that mandating participation resulted in a sustained increase in employment and a corresponding reduction in benefit receipt. The results were driven at least in part by a deterrent effect.     

Farmers’ crop insurance perception and participation decisions: empirical evidence from Hunan,China

The measurement of risk perception and risk attitudes, and their link to actual risk behaviors have been extensively discussed. However, the potential impact of perception of risk management instruments on the decision to use those instruments has rarely been addressed. This article hypothesizes that the degree of perception of insurance contracts and participation decisions could have substantial mutual influence depending on the development of the market. An empirical work is carried out based on a survey of data for paddy rice farmers in Hunan Province, China. It shows that the sampled farmers’ crop insurance perception was surprisingly low despite years of pilot programs and tens of billions of expenditure in government subsidies. The result of simultaneous equations model indicates that crop insurance perception and participation are simultaneously determined and mutually improving. Moreover, empirical evidence indicates that the impact of crop insurance participation on perception is slightly stronger than that of perception on participation, and thus provides weak evidence of a ‘learning-by-doing’ stage in China at present. Together with evidence of substantial local disparities in perception, implications for the Chinese government in further cultivating the crop and rural insurance market are discussed.     

The ‘Plateau‐ing’ of the European Better Regulation Agenda: An Analysis of Activities Carried out by the Barroso Commission

In this paper we examine cases commonly characterised as risk‐risk tradeoffs (i.e., creating new risks while solving existing ones), in an attempt to learn lessons that can be valuable for future regulatory decision‐making. A broad range of environmental and health literature was reviewed and numerous cases of proclaimed risk‐risk tradeoffs were analysed in order to determine: 1) why regulatory measures were initially taken, 2) why these measures caused a countervailing risk to emerge, 3) how tradeoffs could have been avoided, and 4) whether the case is a good example of a risk‐risk tradeoff. The analysis reveals that only a small number of these cases can actually be considered risk‐risk tradeoffs. In a large number of cases safer alternatives are and were available at the time decisions were made. In some cases the proclaimed risk‐risk tradeoff simply did not exist or occur, and in some cases countervailing risks were ignored for reasons unknown. In many cases, the countervailing risks could have been anticipated and avoided by proactively seeking safer alternatives, completing a tradeoff and impact assessment, or increasing stakeholder input in the decision‐making process. We conclude that concerns about risk‐risk tradeoffs are not a reasonable argument against future application of the precautionary principle. Indeed, sound decision‐making processes in the face of uncertainty should always consider and attempt to mitigate reasonable risk‐risk tradeoffs.     

How information and communication technology affects decision‐making on innovation diffusion: An agent‐based modelling approach

We introduce a computational agent‐based model of innovation diffusion that allows us to analyse the influence of information and communication technology (ICT) development on decision‐making. Model dynamics are based on local emulation between pairs of individuals that generate an evolving social network on which an innovation is virally spread (by word of mouth). Results suggest that ICT development affects the data usefulness for decision‐making by changing the topology of the social network (the means whereby the innovation is propagated). Paradoxically, a higher level of ICT development (providing a larger volume of data) narrows the differences between better and worse launch strategies, thus reducing data‐driven decision‐making usefulness, which then shows diminishing returns on the ICT level.     

The Impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Programme on Consumption in Colombia*

This paper studies the impact of a conditional cash transfer programme in Colombia on the total consumption of very poor households and on its components. Our evaluation methodology involves comparing household expenditures in areas in which the programme was not implemented (control) and those in which it was (treated). We use a quasi‐experimental approach, as the Familias en Acción programme was not randomly assigned across localities, for political reasons. We condition on a large range of household‐ and municipality‐level characteristics, and also control for pre‐programme differences in the outcomes of interest using a differences‐indifferences methodology. We find that the programme has been effective at greatly increasing total consumption and its main component, food consumption, in both rural and urban areas. The programme has also contributed to improvements in the quality of food consumed, in particular of items rich in proteins (milk, meat and eggs) and of cereals. Furthermore, the programme has created redistributive effects in favour of children through expenditure on education and children's clothing, while it has not significantly affected consumption of adult goods such as alcohol and tobacco or adults’clothing.