Consumer reactions to unfamiliar technologies: mental and social formation of perceptions and attitudes toward nano and GM products

Abstract

Using focus groups, the research analyses the mental and social processes through which consumers form perceptions and opinions about unfamiliar technologies and the derived products, taking the perception of nanotechnology and nano-products, GM and GM products as example. Our findings suggest that limited understanding of the technological principles and lack of (visible) products prevent the formation of experience-based attitudes and behavioral intentions. In this context, consumers interpret and assess cognitive interventions such as product labels or product information, as well as the trustworthiness of unfamiliar information sources, based on heuristic clues, association, mutual reassurance and previous attitudes. The established determinants of technology risk perception (e.g. knowledge, social norms, perceived risks and benefits and controllability) were the subject of constant deliberation and negotiation among participants. Consequently, the perception of risk and technology communication interventions might vary greatly across different locations and segments of the public, complicating risk communication and trust-building.     

‘Living on the edge’: using cognitive filters to appraise experience of environmental risk

Individuals respond to an experience of risk, both in attitudinal and behavioural terms as a result of how that experience is interpreted and appraised. Experience of local flooding can in theory, inform individuals’ attitudes towards climate change. This trend however, is not observed in all cases and is highly dependent on the local, situational context. This paper postulates that the variation observed in attitudinal and behavioural responses by farmers to climate change following experiences of local flooding can, in part, be explained by the Cognitive Filters of Experience Appraisal Model introduced in this paper. The model is developed firstly through a review of the existing literature concerning appraisal (cognitive and experience). Secondly, the model is framed by empirical research via fifteen face to face interviews with farmers in Gloucestershire, England, who have all directly experienced flooding in recent years. The study is exploratory in nature, and the qualitative data serve as contextualised accounts of the different patterns of experience appraisal. The paper contributes to existing literature by developing current understandings of experience appraisal as well as providing qualitative detail to an area which has generally only been researched quantitatively. The model of experience appraisal which is put forward could be applied to multiple contexts of environmental risk.     

The effect of communication design and recipients’ numeracy on responses to UXO risk

Risk communications aim to affect recipients’ understanding of specific risks, their trust and liking of the materials, affective responses, and associated behaviors. We developed communications about the number of construction workers expected to get hurt if building were permitted at the former Fort Ord weapons training site in California, despite its contamination with unexploded ordnance (UXO). We created eight versions, which presented text only or bar graph with text, the numerator of the risk (the number of workers expected to be hurt) with or without emphasis on the denominator (the total number of workers), and uncertainty information (the probability that different numbers of workers would be hurt) or not. Recipients varied in numeracy. We examined the effect of these communication features on recipients’ (1) understanding, (2) trust and liking of the materials, (3) affective responses, and (4) support for construction and for construction workers if construction were to be implemented. Low-numerate individuals showed less understanding across all versions of the communication, yet preferred graph-with-text displays relatively more than text-only displays as compared to high-numerate individuals. Emphasizing the denominator increased understanding of text-only displays but decreased support for construction and construction workers for all communication versions. Moreover, recipients were more supportive of construction and construction workers after receiving text-only displays without uncertainty information or graph-with-text displays with uncertainty information, seemingly due to communications with those features being trusted and liked more. We discuss the implications for communicating risks in general and for communicating UXO-related risks to the community surrounding Fort Ord.     

The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty

Financial instruments whose payoffs are linked to exogenous events, such as the occurrence of a natural catastrophe or an unusual weather pattern depend crucially on actuarial models for determining event (e.g., default) probabilities. In many instances, investors appear to receive premiums far in excess of these modeled actuarial probabilities, even for event risks that are uncorrelated with returns on other financial assets. Some have attributed these larger spreads to uncertainty in the probabilities generated by the models. We provide a simple model of such parameter uncertainty and demonstrate how it affects rational investors' demand for event risk exposures. We show that while parameter uncertainty does indeed affect bond spreads, it does not tend to increase spreads by much. Indeed, the spread increases due to parameter uncertainty in our numerical examples are on the order of only 1–2 basis points. Moreover, in many instances, including those that have the most sensible correlation settings, parameter uncertainty tends to decrease the size of bond spreads. We therefore argue that parameter uncertainty does not appear to be a satisfactory explanation for high event-risk returns.     

Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk

In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation. We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.

Beliefs underlying chlamydia risk appraisals: the relationship with young adults’ intentions to use condoms

Risk appraisals are identified by many theories of health behaviour as primary motivators of intention and action. However, limited evidence is available on the beliefs underlying risk appraisals. The nature of these beliefs must be understood in order to optimally modify risk appraisals in ways that motivate positive behaviour change. This study uses Cameron’s illness risk representations framework to examine the extent to which beliefs about chlamydia predict risk appraisals and intentions to use condoms with casual sexual partners. A cross-sectional design was used. N?=?921 secondary school and university students aged between 16 and 24?years completed the assessment of illness risk representations which includes measures of illness risk representation components namely identity, cause, timeline, consequences and control. As hypothesised, appraisals of the likelihood of chlamydia infection were positively associated with beliefs that symptoms of infection were present (identity), that exposure to chlamydia had occurred (cause) and that chlamydia affected young people (timeline). Severity appraisals were positively associated with beliefs that chlamydia would lead to pain, psychosocial and fertility consequences (all consequences scales). Contrary to hypotheses, severity appraisals were positively associated with beliefs that infection could be prevented (control over prevention) and cured (control over cure), and not associated with the belief that infection could be treated (control over treatment). Intentions to use condoms with casual sexual partners were predicted by beliefs about control over prevention. In conclusion, Cameron’s framework appears to be useful for examining the content of risk appraisals and isolating beliefs to be targeted through health promotion interventions. The findings have provided new evidence about the basis for young adults’ appraisals of the risk of chlamydia infection. They point to ways in which intentions to use condoms with casual sexual partners could be increased, through for example, developing skills around how to initiate condom use.