Product-market strategy and underwriting performance in the United Kingdom’s property–casualty insurance market

Drawing on a framework from the organizational economics literature, we utilize a panel data design to examine empirically the effect of motor insurance and liability insurance business on the overall underwriting performance of insurers operating in the United Kingdom’s (UK) property–casualty insurance market. We find that participation in liability insurance contributes positively to underwriting performance, whereas motor insurance is associated with inferior underwriting performance. Additionally, we find that higher reinsurance ratio is associated with better underwriting performance, but reduced profit margins. Our results show that higher leverage too is associated with better underwriting performance. We conclude that our results could have potentially important commercial and/or policy implications.     

欧洲银行业联盟架构设计及建设进展

作为应对欧债危机的重要举措,2012年6月,欧盟委员会提出建立欧洲银行业联盟的设想。文章介绍了近一年多来欧洲银行业联盟的三大支柱——单一监管机制、单一处置机制和存款保险机制的架构设计和建设推进情况。目前,银行业单一监管机制建设已基本完成,欧央行发挥维护金融稳定的主导作用;对单一处置机制重要性的认识得到提升,但一些核心问题仍有待明确;存款保险机制建设仍可能保留在各国层面。     

Germany: ‘élite precaution’ alongside continued public opposition

Germany is the EU member state with the most difficult situation (besides Austria) for marketing genetically modified (GM) crops and food. At the same time, it shows the least administrative effort to respond to the reasons for this situation – public suspicion and protest. Regulators advocate specific precaution-related measures, including marketstage monitoring; these measures, however, do not relate to the primary demands of critics and opponents. The administration’s claim to prioritize scientific evidence over politics constructs the administration and the public as two separate worlds without real mediation. This conflicts with the ever-growing demands for public participation. Participation in a broader sense, however, is not dependent on formal opportunities. In this conflict, NGOs bring up issues of democracy, transparency and precaution through public mobilization. This strategy results in an anticipated consumer boycott and thereby a commercial blockage of GM products. These dynamics can be analysed as ‘reflexive modernization’, which implies greater public aversion to externally imposed risks. The politico-administrative system responds with a legalistic–scientistic approach in order to increase safety but without participatory measures to overcome predictive uncertainty and value conflicts. Environmental and consumer protest has led the technology providers to revise their political strategies in the biotechnology conflict. Thus, in Germany reflexive modernization takes place without reflexive politics.     

基于协调的保险市场与资本市场对接模式研究

本文通过比较美、英、日、德四国的对接模式发现,保险市场与资本市场的和谐对接是资金、产品和制度对接三方面的共融体,是金融市场自然演进与风险资本动态规制的最优范式结合。基于此,我国应在经济、金融微观制度基础变迁的基础上适时选择适合我国国情的可操作和可持续的对接模式。     

构建我国统一互联债券市场的路径分析

目前,我国债券市场由相互分割的交易所债券市场、银行间债券市场和商业银行债券交易柜台三个市场构成。整个市场在交易主体、托管体系和监管主体方面存在割裂现象,阻碍了我国债券市场的进一步发展,严重影响了我国资本市场有机整体的形成和发展。商业银行重返交易所债券市场、构建统一的债券托管体系、理顺债券市场监管体系三者有机结合,是构建我国统一互联的债券市场的重要路径。其中,主体联通是基础,托管联通是平台,监管联通是保障。     

保险市场与资本市场对接模式的国际比较研究

现阶段我国保险业快速发展的瓶颈约束与我国资本市场的结构性缺陷迫切需要借鉴国际上先进的保险市场与资本市场对接经验,从金融深化和金融创新的层面探索适合我国国情的对接模式。本文通过比较美、英、日、德四国的对接模式发现,保险市场与资本市场的和谐对接是资金、产品和制度对接三方面的共融体,是金融市场自然演进与风险资本动态规制的最优范式结合。基于此,我国应在经济、金融微观制度基础变迁的基础上适时选择符合我国国情的具有可操作性和可持续性的对接模式。     

信息传导与市场整合——基于商品期货上市的准自然实验

从制度设计上打破市场分割、促进市场整合,对提高市场效率、促进经济有序健康发展具有重要意义。本文以商品期货上市作为准自然实验,构建双重差分模型,实证检验了商品期货上市交易对现货商品市场价格整合的影响。研究发现,现货商品市场价格整合程度在相应商品期货上市后显著提升,这是因为商品期货上市显著地促进了价格信息在全国范围内的传导,且这种提升效应主要体现在价格信息传导比较顺畅的地区。此外,商品期货上市提高了现货商品市场价格同步性,缓解了现货商品价格信息滞后程度,降低了现货商品交易成本。进一步研究发现,商品期货市场的交易信息质量越高,越有利于提高现货商品市场的整合程度。本研究为当前我国建设全国统一大市场提供了一定参考。     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

英国残疾人的社会保障

奉行＂从摇篮到坟墓＂社会福利原则的英国针对残疾人也有一套社会保障政策。本文讨论英国当今对＂残疾人＂的主流定义,梳理国家提供的具体保障政策,包括对日常生活和照料、改善生活环境、教育、工作与收入以及出行几方面资金或政策上的支持。这些特殊待遇反映出政府政策的基本策略：从各方面提高残疾人自强自立的能力,为残疾人溶入主流社会提供多种帮助。     

The Short-Term Inflation-Hedging Characteristics of U.K. Real Estate

This study investigates the short-term inflation-hedging characteristics of U.K. real estate compared to other U.K. investments. It considers not only total returns but also changes in income and changes in capital values. The analyses are undertaken using annual and quarterly data. Stocks, bonds, appraisal-based real estate (including the three property types, separately), and real estate stocks are considered. Real estate series, constructed from the original appraisal series to take account of autocorrelation, also are used. The methodology is based on that devised by Fama and Schwert (1977) and tests are undertaken for stationarity and structural breaks. Hypotheses are established about the coefficients on expected and unexpected inflation in the model, and these are tested. It is concluded that real estate has poorer short-term hedging characteristics for total return, change in capital value, and change in income than stocks but better characteristics than bonds. However, there is evidence to suggest that the relationships change under different economic environments.     

欧盟金融监管一体化的演变与发展——兼评危机后欧盟监管改革

本文依据欧盟在金融监管一体化进程中的两个重要事件——莱姆法路西框架的建立和金融危机后欧盟金融监管改革方案的推出为分界点,对监管一体化发展进行了阶段划分,明确了各阶段的一体化进展情况以及欧盟层面金融监管机构的演变,并对危机后欧盟监管改革的一体化特征进行了归纳与评价。     

Market Power in European Banking Sectors

We analyze the evolution of market power in the main banking sectors of the European Union. The evolution of the relative margins does not show an increase in the degree of competition within the EU. The explanatory factors of the relative margins most directly related to market power are not significant, and even have a negative influence (concentration in the deposits market). The size and efficiency of banks, default risk, and the economic cycle have a notable capacity to explain the behavior of the market power. The results show the inadequacy of using concentration measures as proxy for the competition environment in banking markets.     

The precautionary principle: an 'unprincipled' approach to biotechnology regulation

A tenet of administrative law, particularly in the United States, is that regulators must base their decisions on 'intelligible principles' to provide consistency, predictability, transparency and accountability. The precautionary principle, which purports to provide a new decision rule for making environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, fails to provide such an intelligible principle for making decisions. The precautionary principle is ambiguous on the use of the two major criteria currently used to make environmental decisions - significant risk and cost-benefit balancing - yet offers no new specific decision criteria in their place. The second fundamental problem with the precautionary principle is that it is based on the unsubstantiated premise that the current regulatory system is insufficiently protective. The current system already tends to err on the side of the safety, as it should, but the relevant question is just how precautious should we be? As illustrated by the example of genetically modified organisms, the prudent level of precaution depends on factors such as the magnitude, distribution and uncertainty of risks, the extent of exposure, and the trade-offs and lost benefits in foregoing the risk. These are precisely the factors that are considered under the current risk-based approach, which the precautionary principle seeks to replace.     

The Lead–Lag Relationship Between Stock Indices and Stock Index Futures Contracts: Further Australian Evidence

This article examines the lead-lag relationship in returns on stock index futures and the underlying stock index for the Australian market between 1992 and 1997. On average across the sample period, futures returns lead index returns by twenty to twenty-five minutes and there is some evidence of feedback from the equities market to the futures market. Analysis conducted on a year-by-year basis suggests that the extent to which the futures market leads the equities market has decreased over time and the relationship between the two markets has generally strengthened. This is consistent with an increase in the level of integration between the markets. The results suggest that prior research that compares lead-lag relationships across international markets and time periods in drawing inferences on the effects of market structure needs to be interpreted with caution.     

Actuarial Surplus Management in United Kingdom Life Insurance Firms

This study uses 1991–99 data gathered from the United Kingdom's life insurance industry to test empirically the notion that the reported annual surplus of a life insurer may be influenced by four firm‐specific characteristics: namely, reinsurance, output mix, organizational form and firm size. Consistent with expectations, the results indicate that the annual reported surplus is positively related to reinsurance and firm size and negatively related to the degree of product diversification. Contrary to our expectations, however, we find no evidence that proprietary (stock) life insurers tend to report higher annual surpluses than mutual life insurers.     

Comment on: “Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution”

The methodology proposed in Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] fails to distinguish between the single unique marginal rate of substitution (MRS) process and the class of valid pricing kernels, of which the MRS is but a particular member. Thus, at best, this methodology explores the properties of some arbitrary pricing kernel, which may differ radically from the true MRS. Furthermore, the estimates of the expected MRS proposed by Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] are highly correlated with ex post shocks, implying that these estimates are not conditional expectations at all. The cure for this misspecification introduces additional econometric problems, suggesting that the model may, in practice, be poorly identified.