Evaluating an analytic–deliberative risk‐ranking process in a Chinese context

In previous research, a deliberative process for integrating stakeholder perspectives in the ranking of risks was introduced and empirically tested with lay groups composed predominantly of Americans. In this paper, we explore the viability of this process with lay groups of Chinese, because previous research has shown that Americans and Chinese differ substantially along many dimensions of cognition and social organization relevant to decision‐making. Using 10 environmental hazards based on current Chinese environmental regulatory programs as the risk domain, five groups of 8–9 participants ranked hazards using both holistic and multi‐attribute approaches. Results show that (1) risk rankings from the holistic and multi‐attribute approaches are consistent, (2) participants indicate that they are satisfied with the procedures and resulting rankings, and (3) agreement between participants increases over the course of the ranking exercise. Results for Chinese participants were compared with previously reported results for Americans to look for cultural effects involving deference to technical expertise and quantitative analysis, and skepticism toward public participation in policy‐making. Although there were some hints of cultural differences, neither difference significantly affected measures of the method’s validity or replicability. Because this process offers a scientifically sound and measured approach to stakeholder involvement in risk management, it may be attractive to Chinese leaders as they respond to growing demand for public participation in the policy‐making process. Whether Chinese citizens would consider the process described here to be satisfactory in a real policy context remains to be tested.     

Discussion of “equilibrium earnings management and managerial compensation in a multiperiod agency setting”

Dutta and Fan (Rev Account Stud, 2014), this issue, study the implications of earnings management on managerial compensation, in a two-period LEN setting. They analyze the level as well as the evolution of compensation. Furthermore, they consider the possibility of joint moral hazard and adverse selection problems. I discuss the empirical implications of their analysis, in the context of a slightly more general dynamic setting, and examine the robustness of some of their results with respect to the assumption that the principal can enforce claw-backs.     

Functional‐dynamic public participation in technological decision‐making: site selection processes of nuclear waste repositories

This study employs the ordered lottery selection approach with field experiment to measure risk attitude of two distinct population groups in China – farmers in Wuhan and freelancers in media and advertising in Beijing. A comparative design was used to reveal the cross-population difference in risk attitude and its affecting factors. The results showed that both groups exhibited constant partial risk aversion and decreasing absolute risk aversion, while the farmers were more risk-averse than the freelancers. The farmer and freelancer respondents demonstrated very different sensitivity to the warming-up games types involving ‘gain-only’ or ‘gain-loss’ while extremely risk-averse respondents in the warming-up games possessed the consistent attitudinal behavior in the formal tests. The comparative experiment revealed that gender and income were two statistically significant factors affecting risk attitude and they appeared to be consistent across the two distinct groups. Surprisingly, respondents’ perceived frequency of risk occurrence was not correlated to their risk attitude. Moreover, the factors of leisure and investment behavior were significantly linked to the freelancers’ risk attitude but not the farmers’. The experiment also found a non-linear relationship between risk attitude and education, and receiving college education was found to be a critical switching point that was significantly linked to respondents’ risk choices. While further research is needed to better understand the governing mechanism in risk attitude, perception, and behavior, this paper tried to link the experimental results to the natural disaster insurance practice in China and discussed their implication to the policy design.     

Regimes of risk management in corporate annual reports: a case‐study of one globalizing Australian company

An approach to the study of the ‘risks’ of ‘globalization’ that are increasingly the focus of global protest is outlined. By enrolling a blend of Mary Douglas' cultural approach to ‘risk’ and Ulrich Beck's theory of the ‘risk society,’ it is argued that three distinct ‘regimes of risk management’ are evident in corporate activity. After showing that corporate annual reports are useful for analysis of those effects, the argument is tested/illustrated through a case‐study of the reports of Amcor, a typically internationalizing Australian company. It is concluded that disputes over the ‘risks’ of ‘globalization’ are likely to become even more intense.     

Online monitoring and assessment of emerging risk in conventional industrial plants: possible way to implement integrated risk management approach and KPI’s

Existing methodologies and practices do not provide enough possibility for online monitoring and assessment of emerging risks occurring as a result of a change in technology, product, operating conditions, as well as in organization of activities in conventional industrial plants. Typical today’s off and online methods and corresponding software packages are used as risk assessment methods, while various risk aspects (such as: process risks, process equipment integrity risks, organizational risks, and health and environmental risks) are being assessed and treated independently. However, it is clear that risk assessment and making decisions in line with that has to be based on information collected from different (independent) sources in online mode. Also, the fact that additional risks in operations may occur due to unexpected changes in technology, accidents or unexpected process equipment degradation should be taken into account. When monitoring and process management systems are being designed and developed, only the process aspect and process risk are usually analyzed, while other risk aspects are not taken into account (like health and environmental risks). A new approach, to be presented in this paper, provides a possibility of online monitoring and assessment of risks (e.g. in petrochemical industry, power industry, etc.).     

Regulators as ‘agents’: power and personality in risk regulation and a role for agent‐based simulation

We critically examine how evidence and knowledge are brokered between the various actors (agents) in regulatory decisions on risk. Following a précis of context and regulatory process, we explore the role power and personality might play as evidence is synthesised and used to inform risk decisions, providing a review of the relevant literature from applied psychology, agent‐based simulation and regulatory science. We make a case for the adoption of agent‐based tools for addressing the sufficiency of evidence and resolving uncertainty in regulatory decisions. Referring to other environmental applications of agent‐based decision‐making, we propose how an agent model might represent power structures and personality characteristics with the attending implications for the brokering of regulatory science. This critical review has implications for the structuring of evidence that informs environmental decisions and the personal traits required of modern regulators operating in facilitative regulatory settings.     

Framing risks in a safety‐critical and hazardous job: risk‐taking as responsibility in railway maintenance

In risk management research, risk‐taking is mostly treated as deviation that calls for improved risk communication. I argue, however, that risk‐taking should be seen as expressing a rationale of its own; thus, improving safety requires that this rationale be adequately understood and that the conditions that reproduce risk‐taking be changed. This argument is supported by an ethnography of railway maintenance in Sweden. Railway technicians are charged with maintaining the railway infrastructure to support safe and punctual trains, an assignment that exposes them to occupational hazards. The technicians' claim of occupational responsibility for transportation safety risks is framed by two notions in occupational discourse: first, the safety‐critical nature of their tasks, and second, the notion of service to the general public. Technician interdependence in achieving occupational safety requires mutual responsibility in the team. Technicians justify occupational risk‐taking, claiming it is sometimes needed to achieve production goals given the available time and resources and the manageability of the risks taken. Finally, I stress the need for technicians to change their frames of reference and for employers to assume responsibility for reducing the need for risk‐taking.     

Flight-to-quality in the stock–bond return relation: a regime-switching copula approach

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper examines the existence, intensity and international dependence of flight-to-quality from stocks to government bonds. To this end, we develop...     

Investment and financing constraints in China: Does working capital management make a difference?

We use a panel of over 116,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000–2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that an active management of working capital may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.     

Trust in a High‐concern Risk Controversy: A Comparison of Three Concepts

A community survey examined factors affecting the trust of four groups involved in a high concern controversy over the risks posed by motor boats to the quality of a municipal water supply. In an effort at conceptual integration the survey results were used to examine the relationships between three concepts of trust. Perceived agreement in values between self and four controversy‐involved groups was found to be the most powerful predictor of trust of all four groups, as expected by the salient value similarity perspective. “Fairness” and “competency,” as expected by the “dimensions” of trust perspective were also found to be significant predictors of trust. However, judgments of “fairness” and “competency” were context specific as indicated by significant correlations with judgments of salient value similarity and self interests. This violates the assumption of universality of the “dimensions” of trust perspective. Judgments of similarity of values between self and the controversy‐involved groups were significantly correlated to self interests. This indicates a conceptual overlap between the salient values similarities perspective and the encapsulated trust perspective.     

Is there really a renminbi bloc in Asia?: A modified Frankel–Wei approach

This paper examines whether the renminbi (RMB) has supplanted the US dollar as the major anchor currency in the implicit currency baskets of East Asian economies. First, we demonstrate that existing techniques to address the problem of severe multicollinearity in estimations of the Frankel–Wei regression model, with the movements in both the US dollar and the RMB included on the right-hand side of the equation, remain limited in providing stable and robust results. We then propose a simple modification of the Frankel–Wei regression model to estimate the RMB weight in an economy's implicit currency basket. We show that this new method yields results that are superior to those obtained by existing techniques. Using the new method, we find that the US dollar continues to be the dominant anchor currency and that there is not yet an RMB bloc in East Asia, contrary to claims made by some recent studies. The RMB has taken on some importance in the implicit currency baskets of several East Asian economies in recent years and this appears to have occurred at the expense of the yen. In short, despite the rising importance of the RMB, it has not eclipsed the US dollar as the dominant anchor currency in East Asia. These conclusions are robust to alternative specifications of the modified Frankel–Wei regression model and the use of a structural break estimation technique.     

Farmers’ motivations,risk perceptions and risk management strategies in a developing economy: Bangladesh experience

Aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management strategies have still received little attention in agricultural research. Therefore, an exploratory study has been undertaken to provide empirical insight into Bangladeshi coastal shrimp farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management responses. Data from our study show that 95% of farmers have no formal training in shrimp aquaculture. Shrimp farmers’ cooperative societies operate in only 13.3% of the studied areas and only 15% of shrimp farmers are involved with these cooperative societies. The results reveal that shrimp diseases, price and availability of quality shrimp seeds, exploitation by intermediaries and uncertainty about the future demand for shrimp in foreign markets are perceived as the most important sources of risk. On the other hand, prevention of disease, timely supply of shrimp seeds, elimination of middlemen from the supply chain and farm management training are considered among the best methods to manage the risks in the shrimp‐farming business. We also observe some disparities in farmers’ perceptions. For instance, farmers mentioned that removal of influence of middlemen from supply chain is essential for the betterment of their business. However, they did not consider market monitoring, direct contract with processors and improved marketing facilities as important risk management strategies, although these factors play a significant role in reducing the influence of intermediaries and private money lenders.     

Leadership through action learning: a bottom-up approach to ‘best practice’ in ‘infection prevention and control’ in a UK NHS trust

This article reports on the outcomes of an action learning leadership intervention in a National Health Service (NHS) acute trust in partnership with a UK business school. This contribution provides an empirical example of the potential benefits of non-hierarchical leadership. Over a three-year period, 45 nurses took part in an initiative designed to reduce the number of health care associated infections (HCAI) in a large NHS acute trust. By 2010, serious reportable infections were reduced by around 300, providing an efficiency benefit in the region of £3 million and improved patient safety. The turnaround is significant, and although not exclusively attributable to this initiative, the trust is convinced that the intervention has been pivotal.     

Visual performance management in housing associations: a crisis of legitimation or the shape of things to come?

Housing associations in the UK are undergoing significant reform, potentially facing a crisis of legitimation with respect to their values. The latest reforms have included further deregulation and limiting the availability of bank finance at fixed low interest rates. These are challenging times for housing associations; forcing leaders to effectively manage organizational business performance, becoming less reliant on regulatory bodies for guidance and legitimation.     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

Individual differences in a switch from risk‐averse preferences for gains to risk‐seeking preferences for losses: can personality variables predict the risk preferences?

Individual differences on a framing problem and a reflection problem were examined in light of the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator. The predictions on information processing style, derived from Jungian personality type theory, were tested for the much‐discussed framing effect in the Asian Disease Problem and for the reflection effect on which the framing effect presumably depends. As anticipated, the results revealed that business students with higher iNtuition/Extraversion scores and lower Judging score were more likely to be consistently risk‐seeking. Conversely, those with higher Sensing/Judging scores were more likely to be consistently risk‐averse. Both framing and reflection effects were displayed by those with higher Sensing/Judging scores. However, the second expected result was not supported. Rather, a so‐called ‘gray hair/clouds’ effect (effect name inspired by Medin and Shoben's research in 1988), questioning the validity of risk propensity, was observed and analyzed. The somewhat surprising results and their theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

‘It's the tip of the iceberg’: the hidden tensions between theory,policy and practice in the management of Freedom of Information in English local government bodies—evidence from a regional study

This article examines a major UK value-for-money study by Sir Roy McNulty in the context of the neoliberal public policy environment. This environment favoured rail's privatization, and subsequent reform attempts, which maintained the privatization model, have done little to address rail's fundamental problems. McNulty's proposals are examined in terms of their likely effects on the infrastructure authority and the train companies. The article concludes that, although McNulty correctly identified fragmentation as a key cause of rail's cost escalation, and noted the less fragmented nature of other European railways, its neoliberal focus meant that it missed the opportunity to reverse the process.