Obituary

The environmental risk associated with genetically modified organisms (GMO) implies that new approaches to risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are needed. In this paper we discuss the role of the precautionary principle in policy responses to GMO risk. We first discuss application of the criteria in the European Environment Agency report “Late lessons from early warnings: The precautionary principle 1896–2000” to environmental GMO risk, with focus on crop plants. Moreover, we discuss Bayesian analysis in the context of improving the informational basis for decision‐making under uncertainty. Finally, environmental uncertainties are intertwined with economic uncertainties. Providing incentives for improved risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is crucial for enhancing environmental and social responsibility and thereby facilitate implementation of precautionary approaches. We discuss environmental and social screening of companies as an example of how such incentives can be provided.     

Europe's precautionary principle: promise and pitfalls

The European Union, through a recent 'Communication' from the Commission, has sought to legitimize the precautionary principle while establishing criteria for adoption of appropriate precautionary measures. Although the precautionary principle is not new and indeed reflects a basic human instinct, this article argues that the EC makes a constructive contribution towards formalizing it by describing the principle in the context of established processes of risk analysis: objective scientific evaluation, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. The EC's reference to a broad spectrum of precautionary measures, subject to specific managerial criteria, also offers some assurance that the principle shall be implemented through thoughtful processes of decision making. There are pitfalls in the EC approach that should be rectified in future refinements of the principle. Critical terms need to be defined, the evidentiary hurdles for precaution need to be clarified, and checks and balances against ill-considered application of the principle need to be strengthened. A systematic process of ranking hazards and targeting cost-effective protection opportunities should be implemented by the EC as a counterweight to enactment of precautionary measures on a crisis-by-crisis basis.     

The EC courts' contribution to refining the parameters of precaution

By virtue of its ambiguity, it has largely been left to the courts to flesh out the scope and application of the precautionary principle. This paper examines the contribution made by EC courts to defining the parameters of precautionary decision making. In so doing, it illustrates that, though the precautionary principle is seen to operate in a number of regulatory contexts, discernible trends in judicial interpretations of precaution and the underlying notion of ‘uncertainty’ can nevertheless be identified. In contrast with early judgments, the courts are beginning to explicitly interpret risk assessment processes as having a pivotal role in determining precautionary intervention. Rather than finding simply that circumstances of uncertainty warrant precautionary measures, the courts have started to require that clear, or ‘concrete’, evidence of harm, deriving from risk assessment, is established before intervention is justified. This paper posits three explanations for this shift: (i) the ‘better regulation’ initiative within Europe; (ii) the Commission's Communication on the Precautionary Principle; and (iii) WTO litigation on precautionary safeguard measures. The judicial move to affiliate precaution with risk assessment processes in decision making can be seen as a reflection of these factors.     

Decision-analytic refinements of the precautionary principle

In public decision making about uncertain technological hazards, the precautionary principle calls for prompt protective action rather than delay of protections until scientific uncertainty is resolved. The precautionary principle has a sound basis in decision theory, particularly in situations where the potential hazards are serious and the costs of protective actions are tolerable. This article suggests that the precautionary principle should be refined to address three complications: (1) situations where the exposures to be reduced or prevented may have beneficial as well as hazardous consequences; (2) situations where the protective action itself will create potential hazards; and (3) situations where targeted research investments, coupled with delay of protective action, are likely to support wiser public decisions than prompt protective action. Each of these complications is shown to be relevant to contemporary policy debates about application of the precautionary principle. The usefulness of the precautionary principle in public decision making will be enhanced if these decision-analytic refinements are adopted in formal definitions of the principle.     

Procedure for the Implementation of the Precautionary Principle in Biosafety Commissions

In order to fulfil their responsibilities under the precautionary principle, biosafety commissions should lay down guidelines concerning the understanding and application of this principle and work towards an operational procedure. With this contribution, we propose a step‐wise procedure that aims to establish the understanding of the precautionary principle within biosafety commissions and to provide a methodological approach for the application of this principle to specific cases in the course of risk assessment. This approach is based on systematically investigating the consensus view within a group of 15 biosafety experts with the help of sets of checklists. For step 1, we propose a checklist of 13 criteria aimed at defining the understanding of the precautionary principle. For step 2, we propose 4 criteria for the decision on whether or not to use the precautionary principle. For step 3, 11 criteria for the use of the precautionary principle are presented. In step 4, additional criteria for specific applications could be included. In step 5, possible recommendations to decision‐making authorities are proposed.     

The ‘Plateau‐ing’ of the European Better Regulation Agenda: An Analysis of Activities Carried out by the Barroso Commission

In this paper we examine cases commonly characterised as risk‐risk tradeoffs (i.e., creating new risks while solving existing ones), in an attempt to learn lessons that can be valuable for future regulatory decision‐making. A broad range of environmental and health literature was reviewed and numerous cases of proclaimed risk‐risk tradeoffs were analysed in order to determine: 1) why regulatory measures were initially taken, 2) why these measures caused a countervailing risk to emerge, 3) how tradeoffs could have been avoided, and 4) whether the case is a good example of a risk‐risk tradeoff. The analysis reveals that only a small number of these cases can actually be considered risk‐risk tradeoffs. In a large number of cases safer alternatives are and were available at the time decisions were made. In some cases the proclaimed risk‐risk tradeoff simply did not exist or occur, and in some cases countervailing risks were ignored for reasons unknown. In many cases, the countervailing risks could have been anticipated and avoided by proactively seeking safer alternatives, completing a tradeoff and impact assessment, or increasing stakeholder input in the decision‐making process. We conclude that concerns about risk‐risk tradeoffs are not a reasonable argument against future application of the precautionary principle. Indeed, sound decision‐making processes in the face of uncertainty should always consider and attempt to mitigate reasonable risk‐risk tradeoffs.     

Appraising the precautionary principle – a decision analysis perspective

The public and regulators are naturally concerned about any decision that has uncertain but potentially serious health and environmental consequences. When facing such decisions, some individuals say we should resolve significant uncertainties before taking expensive action that may be unnecessary. Others support the precautionary principle, which says that policy makers should err on the side of caution by acting now to avoid or limit potentially detrimental consequences. This paper appraises the precautionary principle from a perspective decision analytic point of view. We argue that neither the 'resolve uncertainties before taking action' nor the 'act now on the side of caution' are appropriate as general policies for all environmental decision problems. Instead, we conclude that policy makers need to conduct sound, in-depth analyses to resolve the pros and cons of acting now versus conducting more research on a case-by-case basis.     

Choosing between precautions for nanoparticles in the workplace: complementing the precautionary principle with caring

Workers who develop and use nanoparticles are on the front line of exposure to the purported risks of nanoparticles. Employers have a legal duty to protect their employees against any work-related harm. However, it is difficult to perform the required risk assessment and management when dealing with uncertainty. Risk ethicists have therefore argued for using the precautionary principle to guide such decisions on uncertain risks. In this paper, I argue that if we want to make use of innovative products, such as nanomaterials, but lack the knowledge and shared standards for choosing between protective measures, the precautionary principle is underdetermined. For the use of nanoparticles in working environments, there are several guidelines that suggest different precautionary strategies for dealing with their purported risks, but choosing between these guidelines proves difficult in the absence of a clear, scientific, decision principle. I therefore explore the ethics of care to develop a complementary decision criterion for the precautionary principle. From this perspective, the caring qualities of working relationships are key in comparing precautions with each other. I propose three conditions for assessing risk management strategies based on (1) the existence of a mutual concern for employee health and safety, (2) the connectedness and continuity of the relationships between employer and employee, and (3) the responsiveness of employers to employee needs. Using these criteria will support choosing between precautions, by shifting attention from the acceptability of imposing a risk to creating a social context in which the imposition of the residual risks can be considered acceptable.     

The precautionary principle and EMF: implementation and evaluation

The precautionary principle, a recommendation to consider action to avoid a possible harm even if it is not certain to occur, is variously defined and interpreted. We present a range of definitions with an emphasis on their requirements for strength of evidence of harm and for actions to be taken. We describe the variety of approaches that have been adopted in developing policy to address the issue of possible health effects of electric and magnetic fields (EMF) in the face of scientific uncertainty. Further, we discuss specific aspects of scientific uncertainty regarding EMF health risks particularly relevant to the development of precautionary principle policy. We define and discuss prudent avoidance and other unique features of applications of the precautionary principle to EMF. We conclude with examples from EMF policy decisions of risk tradeoffs that need to be considered in developing any precautionary principle policy, and provide recommendations for better ways to define and implement the precautionary principle.     

政治系统与法律系统对于技术风险的决策观察

德国社会学家尼古拉斯·卢曼的社会系统论和二阶观察理论所提供的社会建构论框架,有助于我们从技术、时间、知识、决策等维度厘清技术风险形成的复杂社会机制,促进我们对政治系统和法律系统中的技术风险管制活动进行反思性观察。政治系统通过政策性决策活动规划和控制技术风险的努力,本身也会导致决策风险,政治系统因此发展出令规制失灵而被社会遗忘的应对能力;法律系统内部发展出来的风险预防原则,其功能不在于增加社会的安全水平,而是作为一种程序性反应机制,吸收因科学技术后果的不确定性所导致的环境复杂性。     

Forms of talk in policy dialogue: distinguishing between adversarial and collaborative discourse

Uncertainty, the precautionary principle and scenario are three important concepts in current regulatory debates concerned with risk management. In this paper, each concept is described in relation to its regulatory context and a linkage between the three concepts is established. Three scenarios relating to increasing scientific and technical uncertainty are presented. The most obvious regulatory approach to uncertainty is to ban a product, process or substance under the aegis of the precautionary principle. However, this may not be appropriate in all cases and a range of other possible policy responses to uncertainty are discussed and avenues for further research suggested.     

Regulators as ‘agents’: power and personality in risk regulation and a role for agent‐based simulation

We critically examine how evidence and knowledge are brokered between the various actors (agents) in regulatory decisions on risk. Following a précis of context and regulatory process, we explore the role power and personality might play as evidence is synthesised and used to inform risk decisions, providing a review of the relevant literature from applied psychology, agent‐based simulation and regulatory science. We make a case for the adoption of agent‐based tools for addressing the sufficiency of evidence and resolving uncertainty in regulatory decisions. Referring to other environmental applications of agent‐based decision‐making, we propose how an agent model might represent power structures and personality characteristics with the attending implications for the brokering of regulatory science. This critical review has implications for the structuring of evidence that informs environmental decisions and the personal traits required of modern regulators operating in facilitative regulatory settings.     

From precautionary inadequacy to participatory risk management

This paper examines the case of mobile telephone infrastructure as an example of a contemporary risk defined by a lack of scientific evidence and consensus as regards potential or future harm. This uncertainty has led to recourse to the precautionary principle at the European, national, regional and local level of EMF risk management. Local risk governance of mobile telephone infrastructures in Catalonia can be seen as an example of a socio-technical complex system linked to risk perception which highlights the limitations of the precautionary principle in a scientifically uncertain context. Active participation of stakeholders and the public in risk management arenas is required if current technocratic risk management strategies are to be superseded by transparent processes of decision-making in risk management spheres.     

The influence of the precautionary principle on science-based decision-making: questionable applications to risks of radiofrequency fields

The precautionary principle, recognized by the European Commission as a 'full-fledged and general principle of international law,' has been advanced as a paradigm for response to potential risks to the environment or health when scientific data are uncertain. But lacking the elements and operational qualities that characterize principles that have proven useful in law, politics, science, and ethics, the precautionary principle lends itself to regulation based on the perception of a threat or fear itself. In the absence of scientific evidence for risk, recent application of the precautionary principle to questions about radiofrequency electromagnetic fields of cellular telephones and cellular telephone base stations has produced wasteful and misguided regulations and questionable advice to the public. The formation of scientific 'fire brigades' is suggested for rapid acquisition of targeted scientific data needed so that precautionary policies on technologically driven issues can be based on quantitative risk assessment.     

Designing trust

The decision making process in technological development, with its underlying suppositions of certainty and controllability, contributes to fomenting social resistance to technology rather than trust among social actors. Those underlying suppositions are in disaccord with values and world views expressed by the new social movements. These movements, which form part of today’s civil society and are critical of many modern technologies, tend to hold an implicit view of technology as a social experiment under uncertainty. The tendency of the current design activity of basing design decisions on criteria, like engineering efficiency, defined as objective, is contributing to this lack of trust in the very process of decision making, which many social actors are currently demonstrating. Technology, however, depends on sustained public trust. Future technology design has therefore to take into account, as one of its basic functions, the creation of trust among actors.     

Examining the effect of deception detection decision aids on investors' perceptions of disclosure credibility and willingness to invest

Recent evidence suggests that the trend of issuing video disclosures is growing and investors are exposed to the risk of including deceptive information in their decisions. This study suggests that investors can use deception detection decision aids to identify deceptive behavior in video disclosures, and that the use of such decision aids affects their perceptions of disclosure credibility and willingness to invest. The theoretical framework of this study suggests that providing investors with a deception detection decision aid affects their willingness to invest through their perceptions of disclosure credibility, and that this effect is conditional on management's reputation. Using data from 387 nonprofessional investors, the findings provide support for the predicted effect of deception detection decision aid on investors' judgment and decision making. The effect of providing investors with a deception detection decision aid is fully mediated by investors' perceptions of disclosure credibility, and that effect is significantly stronger when management's reputation is good than when management's reputation is bad.     

The impact of nonmonetary performance measures upon budgetary decision making in the public sector

This study addresses the relationship between the provision of nonmonetary performance measures within a budget request document and the reduction in decision makers' reported uncertainty pertaining to past events and the alteration of their subsequent budgetary decisions. An experiment using performance measures developed for an actual crime prevention advertising program and other simulated case material was conducted. The results indicated that in a governmental budgeting setting, knowledge of cues pertaining to program outcomes and societal impacts significantly reduced decision maker uncertainty of past performance and altered their resultant funding decisions. However, subjective biases, created by gender, work experience, education, and personal perceptions of the severity of local crime, were not completely removed from the decision making process.