When the earth shakes … and science with it. The management and communication of uncertainty in the L’Aquila earthquake

In the spring of 2009, a strong earthquake shook the Italian city of L’Aquila and the region surrounding it. Besides the tragedy of human and material losses, the disaster triggered an unprecedented series of legal consequences. In this paper, we take the L’Aquila case, in all its psychological, social and legal controversies as exemplary for reflecting on how uncertainty can be recognized, treated and communicated in the context of mass emergencies. We examine the inherent path-dependency and multidimensional nature of uncertainty by projecting it along a number of axes, analyzing how the different components evolve and interact with each other. We show that contradictions, controversies and conflicts are bound to arise in the practice of expert advice for public policy as a result of: 1) the improper reduction of the overall situational uncertainty to its scientific component only; 2) the treatment and communication of scientific uncertainty as an independent variable that can be analyzed and computed in isolation from ethical, political and societal concerns. Finally, we provide some suggestions about a more integrated approach to expert advice for public policy.     

Ethical assessment in radioactive waste management: a proposed reflective equilibrium‐based deliberative approach

Radioactive waste management facility siting has often been surrounded by political controversy. By attempting to overcome accusations of technocracy, radioactive waste management organisations are reframing the problem in terms of socio‐technical issues requiring the integrative assessment of complex scientific, political and ethical issues and establishing analytic‐deliberative decision‐making processes involving public and stakeholder involvement. One important aspect of a publicly supportable radioactive waste management strategy is that adequate ethical assessment is incorporated throughout the process. There are, however, certain incompatibilities between pluralistic public and stakeholder‐led engagement processes and the types of ethical justification stemming from normative ethical theory and the input of ethical expertise. An evaluation of previous work on ethics by the UK Committee on Radioactive Waste Management highlights some of the pitfalls of utilising these types of ‘top‐down’ inputs in a primarily ‘bottom‐up’ decision‐making process. This paper then proposes the development of a new approach inspired by John Rawls's concept of ‘reflective equilibrium’, to better bridge the divide between pluralistic analytic‐deliberative decision‐making and ethical assessment.     

Democracy,sustainability and dialogic accounting technologies: Taking pluralism seriously

There is wide-ranging recognition of the need for “new accountings” that foster democracy and facilitate more participatory forms of social organization. This is particularly evident in the sustainable development and social and environmental accounting literatures, with calls for more dialogic forms of accounting. However, there has been very little consideration of how “democracy” should be approached; and, in particular, the implications of any particular model of democracy for the kinds of accounting technologies that might be advocated. This paper seeks to contribute to the theoretical development of dialogic accounting and focuses on the sustainability arena for illustrative purposes. It draws on debates between deliberative and agonistic democrats in contemporary political theory to argue the case for an agonistic approach to dialogics; one that respects difference and takes interpretive and ideological conflicts seriously. In recognition of the ways in which power intrudes in social relations so as to deny heterogeneity and privilege certain voices, it seeks to promote a broadly critical pluralist approach. To this end, the paper proposes a set of key principles for dialogic accounting and draws on ecological economist Peter Söderbaum’s work on positional analysis applied to an existing accounting tool – the Sustainability Assessment Model (SAM) – to illustrate how such an approach might be operationalized. The paper also discusses limitations of the dialogic accounting concept and impediments to its implementation.     

COMMUNICATION PROCESSES AND THE ‘NEW PUBLIC SPACE’ IN ITALY AND THE USA: A LONGITUDINAL APPROACH

Since the time of ancient Greece, democracy and communication have ineluctably been linked. Seen with the eyes of the Greek citizens, the agora was a somewhat mystical space where direct involvement and face‐to‐face communication processes paved the way to the kratos of the demos. After more than two thousand years, communication still remains closely linked to democracy, but the ever expanding dimension of modern societies calls for political representation. Consequently, the electoral arena has become a fictitious public space making democracy work. With the agency and the communication theories in the background, the present authors claim that following the advent of the most incredible technological discontinuity in history, things seem to have taken a jump back in time. The widespread dissemination of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), in fact, was crucial to the emergence of a ‘new public space’ bringing with it the poetry of a mirrored image of the ancient agora. Such new public space will be analysed with reference to the US and Italian governments at a federal and central level in order to gain a better understanding of how government‐citizens relationships are fashioned in both contexts. As we will see, each understanding of democracy argues for a different design of government‐citizens relationships. Consequently, both positive and recalcitrant attitudes towards a citizens’ greater involvement in policy making are often due more to cultural than to technological barriers. Their removal has to pass through the awareness that ICT may have profound consequences for democracy: their real power lies in their capacity to integrate political representation with new forms of citizens’ direct involvement in public life while consequently reinvigorating the pluralistic attitudes of the agora even in large‐scale modern democracies.     

Antecedent factors of the need for information regarding petrochemical complex hazards

Information transparency is a relevant factor nowadays. The current legislation has forced hazardous companies to improve their communication policy with the local community, but this entails the difficulty that each individual has a different need for information. This study considers the main antecedents of need for information to explain these differences. The paper analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the direct influence of personal beliefs about environmental issues on the individual’s need for information. The research focused on the residents (992) of an area near to a petrochemical complex. The results, derived from the structural equation modelling analysis, confirmed the influence of environmental beliefs, trust in companies and negative affective response on the need for information. In the light of these results, we recommend that the companies of the complex develop a risk communication policy based on personal environmental beliefs, in order to understand the public’s concerns and their needs for risk information. Finally, the analysed companies need to see risk communication as a long-term and ongoing process that involves active dialogue and enables stakeholders’ participation, with the aim of establishing a communication network.     

Towards a fair procedure for risk management

The need for fairness in risk management is frequently expressed in the risk literature. In this article, fairness is connected to the procedure for decision‐making. Two models for procedural justice in the management of risks are discussed, one that focuses on a hypothetical thought experiment, and one that focuses on actual dialogue. The hypothetical approach takes John Rawls’ theory of justice as a starting point. The actual inclusion approach employs Iris Marion Young’s theory of inclusive deliberative democracy. With Rawls’ theory, important issues concerning risk distribution are emphasized, and a parallel between social primary goods and risk management is drawn. The hypothetical reasoning should mainly serve as a guide concerning risk issues that affect people who cannot be included in the decision procedure, such as future generations. However, when the affected can be included, an interactive dialogical reasoning is to be preferred. Here, Young’s theory is fruitful. It aims at fair decisions by fulfilling conditions of inclusiveness, equality, reasonableness and publicity.     

The end of risk communication as we know it

According to the US National Research Council, risk communication ought to be viewed as a dialogue among people conducted to help facilitate a more accurate understanding of risks and, related, the decisions they may make to manage them. But, in spite of this widely accepted perspective on risk communication, there is often a disconnect between how it is defined and how it is practiced. Rather than focusing on a true dialogue aimed at improving risk assessments and risk management decisions, risk communication is often viewed as means of simply educating people about existing risk assessments so that, on their own, they might make (or contribute to) better risk management decisions. More worrisome, risk communication is still often seen as a means of ‘correcting’ misconceptions about, or perceptions of, risk; in other words, risk communication is used as a vehicle for attempting to align lay perceptions with their expertly assessed severity. In this paper, I argue that risk communication must become more decision-focused if it is to meet the objectives set forth – in 1989 – by the US National Research Council.     

Budget repair or budget spectacle? The passage of Wisconsin’s Act 10

Strategic planning processes use budgets to implement control and accountability. However, budgets can also be used to generate support for strategic decisions, for example by creating a political spectacle. A political spectacle is a problem engineered to have a specific political impact. This paper investigates politicians’ use of a state budget as a political manoeuvre to defend strategic decisions regarding public employee unions in Wisconsin. The analysis shows how the 2011 state budget in Wisconsin was used to create a political spectacle to generate support for eliminating collective bargaining for public workers, especially public (state) school teachers.     

A Fireside Chat with Raj Gupta: What It Takes to Create Long‐Term Value

The chairman of two public companies (and former chair and CEO of Rohm and Haas) draws on his experience as a director of five private and 15 public companies in discussing the challenges and opportunities facing today's corporate boards. Perhaps the most formidable challenge is the pace of technological change, which is making business models ‘in all industries and countries’ obsolete and forcing companies to adapt much more quickly than in the past. Along with the risk of obsolescence is the increase in ‘reputational risk’ associated with an ‘information age’ in which companies are forced to monitor the nearly continuous flow of fact, hearsay, and outright fabrication. The author recommends that public company boards adopt a new ‘partnership’ model. Besides ensuring an ‘ethical tone at the top,’ corporate directors should aim to become partners with the senior management team by playing more active roles in strategic planning, risk management, and the design of performance evaluation and incentive pay systems. In the most striking departure from current practice, the author urges directors to seize the opportunity created by the ‘reconcentration’ of ownership of U.S. public companies by actively engaging large institutional investors in a strategic dialogue about the companies' strengths and vulnerabilities. In so doing, proactive directors can help their management teams preempt shareholder activists and create long‐run value by creating a more effective two‐way channel of communication, one with the potential to give management more confidence when undertaking large strategic investments with longer‐run payoffs.     

Implementing budgetary control in the performing arts: games in the organizational theatre

When administrators or political bodies try to enforce implementation of new management control systems on organizations, various forms of conflicts and games may be observed in the implementation process. Different rationalities are brought face-to-face in the discourse on implementation, and the process will be influenced by some form of political behaviour. A political perspective will call attention to such issues as the players, power and games. By adopting the concept of budget games in an analysis of the actions related to the implementation process we try to show how we can gain a better understanding of the behaviour exhibited by the various groups involved and of the outcome of the process. Observations from a case study of the Royal Danish Theatre show how different budget games emerge in a process in which the Theatre, the Danish Treasury Department, and various actors inside and outside the theatre have been engaged over a period of 15 years, in an attempt to implement a new management control system at the theatre. The management control system being implemented is a combination of a new accounting system and a new planning and budget system. First, we will discuss the strengths of the concept of budget games and the possibilities that it offers for a better understanding of organizational actions related to the implementation of budgeting systems. In addition, we will look at reforms in the public sector with a special view to the role of budgetary control systems. A framework for using budget games as an analytical tool in understanding implementation processes is developed and applied to the case. The analysis shows how various budget games emerge in the organizational field. The budget games start when an individual or a group wants to address an issue and encounters opponents. The analysis also demonstrates how one budget game may create a counter-game. Finally, the findings and their implications are discussed. The analysis demonstrates the usefulness of the budget game perspective in understanding the implementation of accounting systems and the behaviour of the various groups involved or af fected by the system.     

APT VS. CAPM ESTIMATES OF THE RETURN-GENERATING FUNCTION PARAMETERS FOR REGULATED PUBLIC UTILITIES

In public utility rate hearings, there are extensive arguments concerning the most appropriate model of the return-generating function. Bower, Bower, and Logue (1984) suggest that the APT is superior to the CAPM, but their results have troublesome ranking differences between the two models when applied to returns from electric versus natural gas utilities. The purposes of this paper are to develop forward estimates of the parameters for both of these models applied to five different utility portfolios of electric and natural gas companies at a point in time, and to test whether these estimates are valid during a subsequent or future period. Also, forecasting errors for each model are compared to determine which model is best and to ascertain if there are any ranking conflicts. There are no ranking conflicts with the models as the market model consistently underestimates the actual return. Thus, the analysis suggests that the arbitrage model is a superior representation of the return-generating process of these utilities.     

‘Real without being concrete’: the ontology of public concern and its significance for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

Abstract

Public concern is a pivotal notion in the risk perception, communication and management literature. It is, for example, a central concept with regard to the social amplification of risk, and as a justification for policy attention. Despite its ubiquity, the notion of public concern remains a ‘black box’ presenting a poorly understood state of affairs as a reified matter-of-fact. Paying attention to the deployment and metrics of public concern, and the work it is required to do, will enhance the power of approaches to understanding risk, and policymaking. Thus, the broad purpose of this paper is to unpack the notion of public concern by adopting an ontological yet critical perspective, drawing on a range of literature that considers ontology. We reflect on how publics and public concern have been conceptualised with regard to the dichotomies of individual/social and private/public, given that they imply different levels and dimensions of concern. We draw on empirical work that illuminates the assessment and measurement of public concern and how the public have responded to risk events. Considering public concern through an ontological lens affords a means of drawing renewed critical attention to objects that might otherwise appear finished or ready-made.     

The politics of quantification

Ted Porter’s Trust in Numbers is an ambitious attempt to show how quantification in the social sciences was a response to problems of trust generated by conflicts between social scientists, politicians, managers, owners, and bureaucrats in the U.S., Britain, and France. Porter’s argument is that quantification is one way to attain trust within a profession or in the political sphere. His case studies show that less organized social scientists were forced by external constituencies to quantify, while more organized groups were able to assert their expertise and use connections to important political and economic elites to resist quantification. While Porter’s book opens new terrain, I propose that one way to reinterpret the book is to have a more explicit view of how the relations between political and economic elites produce different problems of trust and different forms of control.     

Critical accounting and communicative action: On the limits of consensual deliberation

Richard Laughlin's work provides a framework for scholarly engagement that includes process (middle range thinking), a societal model of administration, and a means for reflexive and collective decision-making. The framework draws on Habermas’ theory of communicative action, which is underpinned by a deliberative, consensus-oriented conceptualization of democracy. Based on recent developments in political theory and related applied fields, we argue that deliberative democracy is only one of several democratic bases useful in understanding and/or improving accounting and accountability systems to better meet the needs of diverse contemporary societies. In particular, we contend that, in relying on Habermasian-style deliberative democracy, Laughlin's conceptualizations do not fully account for the dimensions of disagreement and difference in democratic interactions. Drawing on the work of agonistic political theorists and studies from the applied fields of communicative planning and critical policy analysis, we argue that deliberative democracy approaches based on ideal speech criteria and universalistic consensus need to be balanced with theorizations that recognize the reality and value of more open-ended and unfinalizable struggles among actors with different histories, cultures, and/or ideological orientations. While cognizant of the challenges involved in bridging deliberative-agonistic conceptualizations of democracy, such endeavors provide opportunities for (re)theorizations that offer promise for enriching critical accounting by, as we argue, reinforcing the critical/political in critical accounting. To this end, we consider possibilities of forging links between Laughlin's work and our own proposals for dialogic/polylogic accountings based on agonistic democracy in an effort to foster more enabling accounting praxis.     

Germany: ‘élite precaution’ alongside continued public opposition

Germany is the EU member state with the most difficult situation (besides Austria) for marketing genetically modified (GM) crops and food. At the same time, it shows the least administrative effort to respond to the reasons for this situation – public suspicion and protest. Regulators advocate specific precaution-related measures, including marketstage monitoring; these measures, however, do not relate to the primary demands of critics and opponents. The administration’s claim to prioritize scientific evidence over politics constructs the administration and the public as two separate worlds without real mediation. This conflicts with the ever-growing demands for public participation. Participation in a broader sense, however, is not dependent on formal opportunities. In this conflict, NGOs bring up issues of democracy, transparency and precaution through public mobilization. This strategy results in an anticipated consumer boycott and thereby a commercial blockage of GM products. These dynamics can be analysed as ‘reflexive modernization’, which implies greater public aversion to externally imposed risks. The politico-administrative system responds with a legalistic–scientistic approach in order to increase safety but without participatory measures to overcome predictive uncertainty and value conflicts. Environmental and consumer protest has led the technology providers to revise their political strategies in the biotechnology conflict. Thus, in Germany reflexive modernization takes place without reflexive politics.     

The meta‐governance of risk and new technologies: GM crops and mobile telephones

The stylistic shift from government to governance in the regulation of risks associated with new technologies is often portrayed as an attempt to reach a deeper consensus over public controversies and to avoid future risk management failures. Stakeholder involvement in decision‐making through more inclusive and learning styles is seen as increasingly necessary in order to correct the steering deficit of the state, to rebuild trust in state institutions, and to obviate problems caused by uncertainty and different value perspectives in risk assessments. In this paper we scrutinise this model of risk and governance in the light of recent developments in the UK, focusing in particular on the regulation of genetically modified crops and mobile telecommunications technology. We conclude that the shift to governance is best understood in terms of the accommodative response of the state to a number of new challenges: primarily posed by the changing role of the private sector; by pressures on government to engender public trust in the face of shifting social values; and by the related difficulty in taking decisions with confidence and legitimacy. There is a perceived need within government for a more deliberative approach to regulation and standard‐setting, achieved by a creative combination of managed scientific order and the establishment of deliberative cooperative institutions. However the creation of deliberative mechanisms and institutions is not an easy passage, especially if it is accelerated by uncontrollable political events. Indeed, we caution against romantic interpretations of governance as indicating a uniform popular trend towards the democratisation of state decision‐making, despite the very real opportunities for reform that it affords. Rather, we suggest that a more plausible account is provided by seeing governance as a form of adaptive management necessitated by a series of interlocking economic and social changes, and responses to successive risk management crises.     

Towards Analytic‐deliberative Forms of Risk Governance in the UK? Reflecting on Learning in Radioactive Waste

While participatory forms of risk assessment and management have been the focus of much conceptualisation, experimentation, and evaluation, relatively less effort has gone into understanding how so called ‘analytic‐deliberative’ processes are developing across policy‐for‐real decision contexts. This paper develops a novel typology of citizen‐science interaction as a basis for analysing the nature and extent of recent participatory risk assessment practice in the UK. It draws on the reflections of professional actors operating across the UK environmental risk domain, focusing down on practice in the area of radioactive waste between 1998 and 2003. Compared with past science‐centred approaches, analysis shows an ‘opening up’ of risk decision processes to extended actors, knowledges, and values, with particular importance placed on public involvement in front‐end framing. This is being constrained by a failure to integrate engagement throughout decision processes, the exclusion of publics from assessing/evaluating environmental risks, and the upholding of a strict separation between citizens/science. These patterns of analytic‐deliberative practice — determined by contextual influences, barriers and challenges operating across UK environmental risk issue‐areas — highlight the need for further methodological development and systematic evaluation of relations between processes and outcomes.     

Precautionary principle and discursive strategies: classifying and managing risks

The paper covers an integral risk concept consisting of a criteria-based risk evaluation, a novel proposal for risk classification and corresponding risk management strategies aimed at an analytic-deliberative approach in risk regulation. For this purpose, technical and scientific as well as social scientific concepts were integrated into a single conceptual framework. Eight criteria were selected for evaluating risks: probability of occurrence, extent of damage, incertitude, ubiquity, persistency, reversibility, delay effect and potential of mobilization. With respect to these criteria, six risk classes were formed in which risks may exceed thresholds determined by deliberative action. Effective and practicable management strategies were deduced for each risk class. The characterization and classification of risks provide a knowledge base for designing risk policies and class-specific management strategies. Three major management categories were identified: risk-based, precautionary and discursive strategies. In deliberative processes actors need to agree on norms and procedures to manage risks. If the results reflect the agreement of previous discourse procedures, political decisions become more legitimate. Because the risk evaluation, risk classification and management strategies are based on the concept of analytic-deliberative processes, the essential requirements for an effective and democratic risk policy are met.     

Risk communication and worried publics in an imminent rockslide and tsunami situation

In this paper determinants of adequate worry were studied in the case of an impending rockslide and tsunami in the fjords around Åknes on the west coast of Norway. Approximately 3000 people live in this danger zone. A rockslide may cause up to 54 million cubic metres (1.9 billion cubic feet) of rock to slide into the fjord below, causing a major tsunami. In relation to risk communication, the study sought insights into the determinants of adequate worry in this certain, but time-indeterminate, natural disaster. A questionnaire designed to measure the public’s ‘otte’, a parochial Norwegian expression translated as a nagging worry about the rockslide, was mailed to all 875 inhabitants aged 18?years and older in the four small communities along the fjord; 382 responded (43.6%). The results indicated that members of the public who had trust in the experts and engaged in dialogue with them tended to worry more than others. Those who reported concerns about issues unrelated to the disaster tended to worry less about a possible rockslide. Analyses also revealed that those who lived in a community with extraordinary assets worried the most. Compliance with the evacuation procedures and trust in the experts were positively correlated with the level of worry. In order to address the needs of the public, this study suggests that not only are facts and figures about risk important but also issues that address the worries of the public. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

How do politicians shape and use budgets to govern public sector organizations? A position-practice approach

This paper examines politicians’ influence on budgets in governing public sector organizations. Theoretical reasoning is based on the position-practice concept applied in structuration theory. Research took place in a hospital district in Finland from 2009 to 2015. The findings show that politicians set coercive budgetary policies, but there was no direct relationship between budgets and actual medical practices. As a result, the budget was simply a ‘ceremonial’ tool of political governance, as medical professionals concentrate on delivering healthcare services.