Appraising the precautionary principle – a decision analysis perspective

The public and regulators are naturally concerned about any decision that has uncertain but potentially serious health and environmental consequences. When facing such decisions, some individuals say we should resolve significant uncertainties before taking expensive action that may be unnecessary. Others support the precautionary principle, which says that policy makers should err on the side of caution by acting now to avoid or limit potentially detrimental consequences. This paper appraises the precautionary principle from a perspective decision analytic point of view. We argue that neither the 'resolve uncertainties before taking action' nor the 'act now on the side of caution' are appropriate as general policies for all environmental decision problems. Instead, we conclude that policy makers need to conduct sound, in-depth analyses to resolve the pros and cons of acting now versus conducting more research on a case-by-case basis.     

Europe's precautionary principle: promise and pitfalls

The European Union, through a recent 'Communication' from the Commission, has sought to legitimize the precautionary principle while establishing criteria for adoption of appropriate precautionary measures. Although the precautionary principle is not new and indeed reflects a basic human instinct, this article argues that the EC makes a constructive contribution towards formalizing it by describing the principle in the context of established processes of risk analysis: objective scientific evaluation, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. The EC's reference to a broad spectrum of precautionary measures, subject to specific managerial criteria, also offers some assurance that the principle shall be implemented through thoughtful processes of decision making. There are pitfalls in the EC approach that should be rectified in future refinements of the principle. Critical terms need to be defined, the evidentiary hurdles for precaution need to be clarified, and checks and balances against ill-considered application of the principle need to be strengthened. A systematic process of ranking hazards and targeting cost-effective protection opportunities should be implemented by the EC as a counterweight to enactment of precautionary measures on a crisis-by-crisis basis.     

The precautionary principle: an 'unprincipled' approach to biotechnology regulation

A tenet of administrative law, particularly in the United States, is that regulators must base their decisions on 'intelligible principles' to provide consistency, predictability, transparency and accountability. The precautionary principle, which purports to provide a new decision rule for making environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, fails to provide such an intelligible principle for making decisions. The precautionary principle is ambiguous on the use of the two major criteria currently used to make environmental decisions - significant risk and cost-benefit balancing - yet offers no new specific decision criteria in their place. The second fundamental problem with the precautionary principle is that it is based on the unsubstantiated premise that the current regulatory system is insufficiently protective. The current system already tends to err on the side of the safety, as it should, but the relevant question is just how precautious should we be? As illustrated by the example of genetically modified organisms, the prudent level of precaution depends on factors such as the magnitude, distribution and uncertainty of risks, the extent of exposure, and the trade-offs and lost benefits in foregoing the risk. These are precisely the factors that are considered under the current risk-based approach, which the precautionary principle seeks to replace.     

Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies

A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate whether the preferred course of action is avoiding the activity without further study, engaging in the activity without further study, or conducting a test or research programme to obtain additional information and following the result. When these thresholds are low, precautionary action is more likely to be warranted. When there are multiple stakeholders, differences in their perceptions of the benefit and cost of avoidance and differences in their perceptions of the accuracy of the additional information provided by the test or research programme combine to create differences in their decision thresholds. Thus, the model allows for the rational expression of differences among parties in a way that highlights disagreements and possible paths to conflict resolution. The model is illustrated with an application to phytosanitary standards in international trade and examined in terms of recent empirical research on lay perceptions of risks, benefits, and trust. Further research is suggested to improve the elicitation of model components, as a way of fostering the legitimate application of risk-based decision analysis in precautionary policy making.     

The EC courts' contribution to refining the parameters of precaution

By virtue of its ambiguity, it has largely been left to the courts to flesh out the scope and application of the precautionary principle. This paper examines the contribution made by EC courts to defining the parameters of precautionary decision making. In so doing, it illustrates that, though the precautionary principle is seen to operate in a number of regulatory contexts, discernible trends in judicial interpretations of precaution and the underlying notion of ‘uncertainty’ can nevertheless be identified. In contrast with early judgments, the courts are beginning to explicitly interpret risk assessment processes as having a pivotal role in determining precautionary intervention. Rather than finding simply that circumstances of uncertainty warrant precautionary measures, the courts have started to require that clear, or ‘concrete’, evidence of harm, deriving from risk assessment, is established before intervention is justified. This paper posits three explanations for this shift: (i) the ‘better regulation’ initiative within Europe; (ii) the Commission's Communication on the Precautionary Principle; and (iii) WTO litigation on precautionary safeguard measures. The judicial move to affiliate precaution with risk assessment processes in decision making can be seen as a reflection of these factors.     

Procedure for the Implementation of the Precautionary Principle in Biosafety Commissions

In order to fulfil their responsibilities under the precautionary principle, biosafety commissions should lay down guidelines concerning the understanding and application of this principle and work towards an operational procedure. With this contribution, we propose a step‐wise procedure that aims to establish the understanding of the precautionary principle within biosafety commissions and to provide a methodological approach for the application of this principle to specific cases in the course of risk assessment. This approach is based on systematically investigating the consensus view within a group of 15 biosafety experts with the help of sets of checklists. For step 1, we propose a checklist of 13 criteria aimed at defining the understanding of the precautionary principle. For step 2, we propose 4 criteria for the decision on whether or not to use the precautionary principle. For step 3, 11 criteria for the use of the precautionary principle are presented. In step 4, additional criteria for specific applications could be included. In step 5, possible recommendations to decision‐making authorities are proposed.     

Choosing between precautions for nanoparticles in the workplace: complementing the precautionary principle with caring

Workers who develop and use nanoparticles are on the front line of exposure to the purported risks of nanoparticles. Employers have a legal duty to protect their employees against any work-related harm. However, it is difficult to perform the required risk assessment and management when dealing with uncertainty. Risk ethicists have therefore argued for using the precautionary principle to guide such decisions on uncertain risks. In this paper, I argue that if we want to make use of innovative products, such as nanomaterials, but lack the knowledge and shared standards for choosing between protective measures, the precautionary principle is underdetermined. For the use of nanoparticles in working environments, there are several guidelines that suggest different precautionary strategies for dealing with their purported risks, but choosing between these guidelines proves difficult in the absence of a clear, scientific, decision principle. I therefore explore the ethics of care to develop a complementary decision criterion for the precautionary principle. From this perspective, the caring qualities of working relationships are key in comparing precautions with each other. I propose three conditions for assessing risk management strategies based on (1) the existence of a mutual concern for employee health and safety, (2) the connectedness and continuity of the relationships between employer and employee, and (3) the responsiveness of employers to employee needs. Using these criteria will support choosing between precautions, by shifting attention from the acceptability of imposing a risk to creating a social context in which the imposition of the residual risks can be considered acceptable.     

Public’s perceived overcrowding risk and their adoption of precautionary actions: a study of holiday travel in China

The importance of travel risk has been recognized, but only a limited number of studies have been conducted on this risk and the precautionary actions the public may take to manage it during holidays. This study applied the protective action decision model and the protection motivation theory to examine the public’s intent to take precautionary actions during holiday times to handle the risk of overcrowding in China. Our survey showed that efficacy-related attributes of precautionary actions were positively correlated, whereas resource-related attributes were negatively correlated, with the intention to take precautionary measures. Risk perception also significantly influenced the adoption intention, but the amount of variance in the intention to adopt precautionary actions that was motivated by risk perception was lower than that related to efficacy-related attributes. In addition, we found that risk perception mediated the influence of past overcrowding experiences on people’s intention to adopt precautionary measures. Travel frequency, length of time spent away for the holiday, and the number of underage family members involved were significantly correlated with the intention to adopt precautionary actions. Finally, this paper discussed suggestions and implications for travelers, tourist departments, and related stakeholders.     

The influence of the precautionary principle on science-based decision-making: questionable applications to risks of radiofrequency fields

The precautionary principle, recognized by the European Commission as a 'full-fledged and general principle of international law,' has been advanced as a paradigm for response to potential risks to the environment or health when scientific data are uncertain. But lacking the elements and operational qualities that characterize principles that have proven useful in law, politics, science, and ethics, the precautionary principle lends itself to regulation based on the perception of a threat or fear itself. In the absence of scientific evidence for risk, recent application of the precautionary principle to questions about radiofrequency electromagnetic fields of cellular telephones and cellular telephone base stations has produced wasteful and misguided regulations and questionable advice to the public. The formation of scientific 'fire brigades' is suggested for rapid acquisition of targeted scientific data needed so that precautionary policies on technologically driven issues can be based on quantitative risk assessment.     

Five charges against the precautionary principle

We defend the precautionary principle against five common charges, namely that it is ill-defined, absolutist, and a value judgement, increases risk-taking, and marginalizes science. We argue, first, that the precautionary principle is, in principle, no more vague or ill-defined than other decision principles and like them it can be made precise through elaboration and practice. Second, the precautionary principle need not be absolutist in the way that has been claimed. A way to avoid this is through combining the precautionary principle with a specification of the degree of scientific evidence required to trigger precaution, and/or with some version of the de minimis rule. Third, the precautionary principle does not lead to increased risk-taking, unless the framing is too narrow, and then the same problem applies to other decision rules as well. Fourth, the precautionary principle is indeed value-based, but only to the same extent as other decision rules. Fifth and last, the precautionary principle is not unscientific other than in the weak sense of not being exclusively based on science. In that sense all decision rules are unscientific.     

Making a Drama Out of a Crisis a Dramaturgical Perspective on the New Technology Controversy

The introduction of new technology often leads to strong public concerns about potential hazards. There are situations where unfounded concerns obstruct highly beneficial developments, but, equally, there are situations where unintended consequences of new technology are overlooked and individuals are harmed. Clearly there are advantages in improving the dialogue between those introducing the technology and those who could be affected by it.

This article uses dramaturgical analysis to explore the interactions between actors in a real life case study, the introduction of a hydrogen refuelling facility in London. Dramaturgical analysis in the traditions of Burke and Goffman explores interactions from the perspective of impression management. The thesis is that the fronts that actors use must relate to the settings they find themselves in, and this matching of front with setting constrains what can credibly be communicated in any situation. This research provides insights into the differences between the front necessary for credibility within an organisation and the fronts necessary for credibility in communicating with the public. It demonstrates how communication can be blocked by the situations actors find themselves in and conflict can emerge as a substitute for effective communication.     

Obituary

The environmental risk associated with genetically modified organisms (GMO) implies that new approaches to risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are needed. In this paper we discuss the role of the precautionary principle in policy responses to GMO risk. We first discuss application of the criteria in the European Environment Agency report “Late lessons from early warnings: The precautionary principle 1896–2000” to environmental GMO risk, with focus on crop plants. Moreover, we discuss Bayesian analysis in the context of improving the informational basis for decision‐making under uncertainty. Finally, environmental uncertainties are intertwined with economic uncertainties. Providing incentives for improved risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is crucial for enhancing environmental and social responsibility and thereby facilitate implementation of precautionary approaches. We discuss environmental and social screening of companies as an example of how such incentives can be provided.     

FTA and equity: New approaches to governance

FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders’ participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies. The need for more participative and inclusive decision making is due to the move from the technocratic nature of decision making towards more democratic processes, which is a result of the transformation of societies and situations as a result of various factors including globalisation, environmental concerns, more knowledge intensive work and lifestyle.The current paper addresses Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) in the context of a better understanding of issues that ought to be considered by the FTA community so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance. The paper has been structured on the discussion of governance around three pillars: socio-cultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government.Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA community that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA activities in governance. Setting a new landscape for the FTA, the paper concludes with those issues where the FTA community is starting to devote attention, as well as those it still ought to consider.     

The ‘Plateau‐ing’ of the European Better Regulation Agenda: An Analysis of Activities Carried out by the Barroso Commission

In this paper we examine cases commonly characterised as risk‐risk tradeoffs (i.e., creating new risks while solving existing ones), in an attempt to learn lessons that can be valuable for future regulatory decision‐making. A broad range of environmental and health literature was reviewed and numerous cases of proclaimed risk‐risk tradeoffs were analysed in order to determine: 1) why regulatory measures were initially taken, 2) why these measures caused a countervailing risk to emerge, 3) how tradeoffs could have been avoided, and 4) whether the case is a good example of a risk‐risk tradeoff. The analysis reveals that only a small number of these cases can actually be considered risk‐risk tradeoffs. In a large number of cases safer alternatives are and were available at the time decisions were made. In some cases the proclaimed risk‐risk tradeoff simply did not exist or occur, and in some cases countervailing risks were ignored for reasons unknown. In many cases, the countervailing risks could have been anticipated and avoided by proactively seeking safer alternatives, completing a tradeoff and impact assessment, or increasing stakeholder input in the decision‐making process. We conclude that concerns about risk‐risk tradeoffs are not a reasonable argument against future application of the precautionary principle. Indeed, sound decision‐making processes in the face of uncertainty should always consider and attempt to mitigate reasonable risk‐risk tradeoffs.     

Decision Usefulness of Cash and Accrual Information: Public Sector Managers’ Perceptions

This study examines the usefulness of accrual accounting information for internal decision‐making contexts in the Western Australian public sector. Based on questionnaire responses of public sector managers, it was found that accrual accounting is perceived to be more useful than cash accounting in 16 of the 19 decision situations. These results suggest that the perceived usefulness of the accrual accounting system has improved with the passage of time. It may well be that perceptions of the usefulness of information derived from an accounting system will change over time as users gain familiarity and experience with a system.     

From precautionary inadequacy to participatory risk management

This paper examines the case of mobile telephone infrastructure as an example of a contemporary risk defined by a lack of scientific evidence and consensus as regards potential or future harm. This uncertainty has led to recourse to the precautionary principle at the European, national, regional and local level of EMF risk management. Local risk governance of mobile telephone infrastructures in Catalonia can be seen as an example of a socio-technical complex system linked to risk perception which highlights the limitations of the precautionary principle in a scientifically uncertain context. Active participation of stakeholders and the public in risk management arenas is required if current technocratic risk management strategies are to be superseded by transparent processes of decision-making in risk management spheres.     

机构投资者的决策人属性及其决策特征

尽管拥有比个人投资更高的理性，机构投资的理性仍显有限，不符合经典的经济人假说前提。代客理财重任使机构投资经常面临与组合投资有关的决策活动，机构投资更符合西蒙的决策人假说条件。作为决策人，机构投资本身是一个偏好收益、寻求满意投资组合的决策系统，在构建投资组合和参与公司治理的决策过程中表现出一些独特的特征。机构投资决策人假说的提出，将有助于推动相关理论研究和实践发展进程。     

The precautionary principle and EMF: implementation and evaluation

The precautionary principle, a recommendation to consider action to avoid a possible harm even if it is not certain to occur, is variously defined and interpreted. We present a range of definitions with an emphasis on their requirements for strength of evidence of harm and for actions to be taken. We describe the variety of approaches that have been adopted in developing policy to address the issue of possible health effects of electric and magnetic fields (EMF) in the face of scientific uncertainty. Further, we discuss specific aspects of scientific uncertainty regarding EMF health risks particularly relevant to the development of precautionary principle policy. We define and discuss prudent avoidance and other unique features of applications of the precautionary principle to EMF. We conclude with examples from EMF policy decisions of risk tradeoffs that need to be considered in developing any precautionary principle policy, and provide recommendations for better ways to define and implement the precautionary principle.