Associations between affect and risk perception

Risk perception research has been dominated by cognitive psychology as a theoretical basis for understanding how people perceive and judge risks. However, during the last few years the role of affect in risk perception has received increased attention. Potential hazards may cause worry and concern and, consequently, an affective component is involved. Affects are often assumed to be post-cognitive. The present study aims to test the hypothesis that an 'image of risk', i.e. affect, may precede cognitive judgement and need not always be a criterion variable. During the period 1996 to 1998 a questionnaire survey was carried out in Norway. In total 1450 respondents replied to the questionnaire. Structural equation modelling showed that the fit of the models of risk depended on the respondents' sex, education and the type of risks evaluated. In the majority of model tests the idea that an image of risk may predict the cognitive judgement of risk was supported. The study also identified two dimensions of affectivity. Cognitive judgements of risk seemed not be related to affectivity as such, but rather to one aspect of affect, i.e. worry and concern. Treating affectivity as one dimension may be a hindrance to detecting the real associations between general affect and cognitive risk judgements.     

The role of expertise in risk communication: laypeople's and expert's perception of the millennium bug risk in The Netherlands

This paper focuses on the discussion of the role of expertise in risk communication. It describes empirical data on the risks posed by the Millennium bug in 1999 in the Netherlands. The study systematically examined the risk perception of both general public and computer experts with respect to the Millennium bug, assessing a potential discrepancy between the layman's and the expert's judgement, as has been observed in other risk areas. Two surveys were fielded, the first aimed at a random sample of the Dutch population ( n = 253), the second at a sample of computer experts ( n = 91). Results indicated that respondents did not perceive the Millennium bug to be a major threat. However, laypeople worried more, did see the issue as more personally risky, and did think the level of public awareness was higher than experts did. Computer experts felt more capable of taking mitigating actions than laypeople, and were more convinced that these actions were adequate. The implications of these findings for the role of expertise in risk communication are discussed.     

Risk reporting: A study of risk disclosures in the annual reports of UK companies

The concepts of risk and risk management have received considerable attention lately, but this has yet to be reflected in empirical research examining firms’ risk reporting practices. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature and explores risk disclosures within a sample of 79 UK company annual reports using content analysis. A significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and company size. Similarly a significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and level of environmental risk as measured by Innovest EcoValue`21™ Ratings. However, no association is found between the number of risk disclosures and five other measures of risk: gearing ratio, asset cover, quiscore, book to market value of equity and beta factor. The paper also discusses the nature of the risk disclosures made by the sample companies specifically examining their time orientation, whether they are monetarily quantified and if good or bad risk news is disclosed. It was uncommon to find monetary assessments of risk information, but companies did exhibit a willingness to disclose forward-looking risk information. Overall the dominance of statements of general risk management policy and a lack of coherence in the risk narratives implies that a risk information gap exists and consequently stakeholders are unable to adequately assess the risk profile of a company.     

对产业集群客户授信风险管理的思考

贷款客户集中度是衡量贷款风险的一项重要指标。特别是2008年世界金融危机发生后,各国都在防范金融风险上加强控制,随着巴塞尔协议3逐步广泛得到世界各国的认同和实施,贷款集中度问题越来越应该引起重视。但是,由于事实上的微观动作,贷款集中有趋重的趋势,其中产业集群客户授信是重要手段。本文结合授信风险管理存在的问题提出建议。     

中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济"风险共振"以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济“风险共振”以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

Risk perception,regulation, and unlicensed child care: lessons from Ontario,Canada

In 2014, the Province of Ontario, Canada undertook a number of legislative changes regarding child care. Part way through the process, a series of tragic focusing events occurred: a number of infants and children died in unlicensed child care over a short period of time. Despite these events, the Province chose to allow a portion of the family child care (FCC) sector to remain unlicensed and essentially unregulated in a sector that is otherwise subject to strict licensing and regulation. Drawing on research on risk regulation, we analyse FCC regulation in comparison to other sectors and find that FCC is surprisingly under-regulated, given the health and safety risks. Legislative debate analysis reveals a number of rationales for non-regulation. In addition to pragmatic political concerns such as costs associated with licensing, analysis reveals concerns about choice and accessibility over quality and safety. We conclude with a call for a research agenda to further examine parents’ and policy-makers’ perceptions of risk.     

The rise of risk: risk related bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and 1993-95

Bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and in 1993-95 were scored according to their major concern: risk, resource allocation or resource growth. It was found that risk related bills had increased strongly, from 11% to 28%, implying that currently almost a third of all bills in the Swedish parliament are related to risk issues. The absolute number of risk bills increased by a factor of four. Resource allocation bills, on the other hand, decreased strongly, and resource growth bills, a minority of bills, remained at a relatively low level. All parties except the Conservatives showed a strong trend towards increased risk concern, especially the Social Democrats. The most frequently encountered type of risks in the 60s were health related, while environmental risks predominated in the 90s. These changes are discussed in relation to the hypothesis that risks become more important during periods of slower economic growth. It is concluded that risk is currently a very important issue on the Swedish political agenda.     

Banking structure and industrial growth: Evidence from China

The debate on the puzzling relationship between financial development and economic growth in China has remained inconclusive because the effects of banking ownership structure and size structure are highly intertwined in the existing studies. This paper addresses this problem by specifying an empirical model to disentangle the two structural effects. The analysis uses a data set that includes the banking sector and 28 manufacturing industries across 30 Chinese provinces over the period 1999–2007. In order to identify the channel through which banking structure affects industrial growth, two interactive variables are constructed to capture the interaction of the prevailing banking structure with labor intensity and the share of non-state-owned enterprises in each industry, respectively. The regression results are robust and make the case for the ongoing banking reforms to reduce state ownership and promote small banking institutions.     

证券风险转嫁为银行风险的形成路径与防范策略

近年来,由于证券市场的风险骤增以及银行的违规操作,导致证券风险向银行风险转化或转嫁,成为银行传统风险之外的主要风险.银行盲目过度垒上市公司以及对券商的违规操作是证券风险转化为银行风险的主要形成路径,强化银行对证券业融资的风险理念、规范信贷融资行为、构筑风险预警机制等,才能有效防范证券风险转化为银行风险.     

风险依赖、一致性风险度量与投资组合——基于Mean-Copula-CVaR的投资组合研究

本文把风险依赖、一致性风险度量与投资组合纳入到一个分析框架中,结合Coupla-CVaR模型和Mean-var投资组合理论构建Mean-Copula-CVaR的投资组合模型,能有效同时解决风险度量中的一致性和依赖性关系。采用券商指数、银行指数和保险指数实证分析线性依赖和复杂依赖(Copula依赖)情况下金融机构资产配置的差异性和风险度量的充分性,研究结果表明,纳入Copula函数能够更为稳健和准确地预测投资组合的CVaR。然而,本文没有检验出不同形式Copula之间的差异具有显著性。本文的政策含义在于,忽视复杂风险依赖结构可能会造成风险低估,从而影响资产配置的有效性。     

重新认识诚信:风险、成本和关系

本从诚信的性质、诚信成本和诚信关系来对诚信进行了再认识，试图对当前的诚信问题给出一个全新的认识。     

Financial Forecasting,Risk and Valuation: Accounting for the Future

Valuation involves forecasting payoffs and discounting expected payoffs for risk. Forecasting is often seen as the province of the statistician, risk determination the province of asset pricing. This paper elaborates on the idea that financial forecasting, risk determination and valuation are a matter of accounting. Accounting not only provides information to forecast payoffs but also specifies the payoffs to be forecasted. Further, accounting determines the transition from the present to the future and thus implicitly the evolutionary parameters that a statistician might estimate for forecasting. Accounting also bears on risk determination in the way it handles uncertainty. Accordingly, accounting is involved in both the numerator and the denominator of a valuation model. Indeed, a valuation model is a model of accounting for the future, and the effectiveness of a valuation model rides on the accounting principles employed.     

Overconfidence,risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals

This paper highlights the role played by overconfidence and risk perception in the risk-taking behaviors of finance professionals. We interviewed 64 high-level professionals and demonstrate that they are overconfident in both the general and the financial domains. Using a recent measure proposed by Glaser et al. (2013), we indicate that respondents are overconfident in forecasting future stock prices. We demonstrate that the risk they are willing to assume is positively influenced by overconfidence and optimism and negatively influenced by risk perception. However, the stock return volatility anticipated is, in most cases, an insignificant determinant of the risk that professionals are ready to assume.     

操作风险管理体制：框架、模式与建构

从理论上讲,一个完整全面的操作风险管理框架至少应该在理论上包括风险管理战略、风险管理流程、基础设施和风险管理环境等四个组成部分。从实践上看,国际上形成了三种比较典型的各具特色的有关操作风险管理体制模式,对于中国各商业银行操作风险管理体制的建构,具有借鉴价值。     

Beyond Sandler: Risk tolerance and the UK investment deficit

The Sandler report of 2002 found a £27bn shortfall in the UK nation's savings. The report highlights the industry changes necessary for citizens to increase investment for their future and thus reduce this deficit. The mass of this investment activity will take place through high street financial services organisations. Sandler suggests changes in industry-wide structure and practice which will lead to macro changes in generic consumer behaviour. This paper suggests that the marketing departments in financial services organisations can go beyond this and harness ‘risk tolerance’ as a segmentation variable to alter behaviour on a more targeted, micro level. It is suggested that this practice could have an even more profound effect than that envisaged by Sandler. In support of this postulate, this paper presents the results of a research programme into segmentation by risk tolerance within a UK retail financial services organisation.     

Performing risk and the project: Risk maps as mediating instruments

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between management control and risk management by investigating the use of risk maps in an inter-organizational project collaboration in the Norwegian petroleum industry. The various ways in which risk maps are drawn upon in the course of the project reveal sources of perceived ‘usefulness’ that are not primarily to do with increased attention toward early warning signals and the defensive production of audit trails, as suggested by previous research. Rather, the study shows how risk maps act as mediating instruments which allow distributed actors to adjudicate interests, build confidence in and associate with ‘the project’ and its progress over time. Drawing on social studies of science and technology, the study shows how the graphical representations of risk maps manage to engage the user and act as mediating platforms where ‘performances’ around the notion of risk can happen. The paper thus extends and complements existing explanations of the pervasiveness of enterprise risk management technology and discusses its interrelation with project management and inter-organizational controls. More broadly, the paper illustrates how the government of risk is related to mediating instruments and how such mediation happens in the interplay between text and conversation.     

Perception of gene technology,and food risks: results of a survey in Switzerland

Perceptions of and attitudes toward genetically engineered food and other food hazards were examined through data from telephone interviews conducted in Switzerland. A random quota sample was used ( N v = v 1001). General attitudes toward technology and political beliefs significantly influenced perceptions of gene technology. Women were more concerned about gene technology and food risks than men were. The term 'gene technology' evoked neutral or negative associations in most people; few people held positive images regarding this technology. Perception and acceptance of gene technology varied according to the type of application; people were less concerned about convenience or processed food. Although it is mandatory to label genetically modified food in Switzerland, relatively few people were familiar with this label. Participants assessed various food risks, and principal components analysis indicated that they distinguished between technological and natural food risks. Implications of these results are discussed.