Perception of the risks and benefits of Bt eggplant by Indian farmers

Several researchers—most notably Lennart Sjoberg and his colleagues—have proposed that the moral aspects of risk provide a better explanation of risk perception than the psychometric paradigm or Cultural Theory, neither of which accounts for moral concerns. This study is possibly the first to assess empirically the perception of the risks and benefits of a transgenic food crop—transgenic Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) eggplant—by farmers in a developing country such as India. It also aims to assess if the moral aspects of risk figure in Indian farmers' perception of Bt eggplant and if economic benefits outweigh perceived risks. To answer the research questions, a scenario was used to elicit perceptions of Bt eggplant among 100 eggplant farmers in the state of Maharashtra in India. The findings indicate that economic benefits, safety concerns, and accountability are most salient to Indian farmers' perception of the risks and benefits of Bt eggplant. Significantly, none of the farmers mentioned moral concerns as an issue. The findings also make clear that economic benefits outweigh perceived risks. This study concludes that economic benefits are more salient than moral concerns to Indian farmers' perception Bt eggplant. It also proposes that an alternative theoretical model incorporating economic benefits, safety concerns, and accountability as key variables should be developed and tested for end users in the developing world.     

Associations between affect and risk perception

Risk perception research has been dominated by cognitive psychology as a theoretical basis for understanding how people perceive and judge risks. However, during the last few years the role of affect in risk perception has received increased attention. Potential hazards may cause worry and concern and, consequently, an affective component is involved. Affects are often assumed to be post-cognitive. The present study aims to test the hypothesis that an 'image of risk', i.e. affect, may precede cognitive judgement and need not always be a criterion variable. During the period 1996 to 1998 a questionnaire survey was carried out in Norway. In total 1450 respondents replied to the questionnaire. Structural equation modelling showed that the fit of the models of risk depended on the respondents' sex, education and the type of risks evaluated. In the majority of model tests the idea that an image of risk may predict the cognitive judgement of risk was supported. The study also identified two dimensions of affectivity. Cognitive judgements of risk seemed not be related to affectivity as such, but rather to one aspect of affect, i.e. worry and concern. Treating affectivity as one dimension may be a hindrance to detecting the real associations between general affect and cognitive risk judgements.     

The joint influence of financial risk perception and risk tolerance on individual investment decision‐making

The increasing complexity of the investment environment has accelerated the need for better quality financial advice services. Central to quality advice is advisers’ accurate assessment of their clients’ risk characteristics. Typically a client's risk characteristic is assessed by measuring the client's risk tolerance but not risk perception. To assess whether this practice fails to fully capture the client's risk profile, we explore both risk tolerance and risk perception in the investment decision‐making context. Using Australian online survey data of financial adviser clients (n = 364), our results reveal that risk tolerance influences risky‐asset allocation directly and indirectly through risk perception. These results thus clarify the joint role of both risk constructs in the investment making decision and highlight the importance of assessing both in the provision of client financial advice services. Importantly, our results validate a new comprehensive risk perception measure applicable in the financial advice context.     

Risk as perceived by the German public: pervasive risks and “switching” risks

In 2001, a major project on the perception and evaluation of risks in southern Germany was conducted consisting of survey data as well as of semi‐structured interviews. With reference to the psychometric paradigm, this article analyzes public risk perception, pointing out the perceived risk semantic for nuclear energy, GM‐food, mad cow disease (BSE), crime, global climate change, mobile telephony and its radiation risks. These hazards reveal different patterns of risk perception and different levels of risk acceptability. Secondly, a comparison of qualitative and quantitative findings will be conducted: qualitative analyses indicate that the results of quantitative rating scales on the perception, evaluation and acceptance of technical and environmental hazards might be misleading since the public's focus on risks as elicited by open association stimuli relies much more on ‘everyday‐life’ and ‘pervasive’ risks than for instance on hazards emerging from new technologies. The relevance of technological risks tends to be dependent on the context: If explicitly mentioned in newscasts, in debates or listed in questionnaires memories, fears or other immediate responses become activated, yet they may be forgotten a short time later. We have called this phenomenon “switching effect” and the respective risks “switching risks”. In standardized opinion polls such ‘switching effects’ may evoke firm judgments, even if the importance in the interviewee's mental representation seems marginal.     

Students' beliefs,attitudes and intentions to major in accounting

This study extends the literature that uses the theory of planned behaviour in examining the factors that impact on students' intentions to major in accounting and non-accounting disciplines. A survey of a sample of business students enrolled in an introductory accounting course in a New Zealand University was conducted to gather data about their intended academic majors, and their beliefs and attitudes towards majoring in accounting and non-accounting. The results show that three factors (personal, referents, and control) are determinants of students' intention to major in accounting or other business disciplines. Further analysis revealed that the students' major intentions are influenced by important referents' perceptions. In particular, parents appear to have a stronger influence on students' intentions to major in accounting. Comparisons of differential personal perceptions by accounting and non-accounting majors revealed that accounting majors hold positive perceptions of some of the qualities of the study of accounting and the accounting profession. Significant differences were also found in the control perception between accounting and non-accounting major students.     

Fairness,risk and risk tolerance in the siting of a nuclear waste repository

In this paper, risk tolerance with regard to nuclear waste is investigated. It is shown that Swedish respondents did not readily accept a local high-level nuclear waste repository, contrary to claims based on polling data. The important role played in Sweden by misleading survey questions is pointed out and demonstrated on empirical data where formulations and procedures are varied. The acceptance of a local repository (measured as intention to vote in its favour in a local referendum) could not be explained well by a cost-benefit approach, neither by an individual risk perception model. Concern about the local community was an important determinant, however, and so were moral aspects. When these aspects were included in a model, about 60% of the variance of risk perception and risk acceptance was accounted for. Cultural Theory scale items, however, added virtually nothing to the explanatory power of the models. In further analyses, NIMBY respondents were identified, defined here as people who rejected a local repository in spite of having acknowledged substantial utility of nuclear power. NlMBYs constituted, however, only a small minority of all opposition to a local repository. Few respondents stated that they would accept a local repository if they were to be given financial compensation. This fact may be related to nuclear power issues being conceived as general, rather than personal, matters. Those who saw it as a politically important issue also conceived of it in general rather than personal terms.     

Book Review

Organisational risk propensity directly affects the decision‐making behaviour of employees, with linked impacts on the ongoing prosperity of the organisation. The literature on an individual's risk behaviour is extensive. However, few studies investigate the risk propensity of an organisation. This study uses primary data from interviews within a major change programme in a FTSE100 pharmaceutical organisation to explore the characteristics of organisational risk propensity. The data are analysed using open coding procedures from Grounded Theory in order to fragment the category of ‘organisational risk propensity’ into some constituent properties and dimensions. An integrative framework is then inductively derived which provides insights into risk propensity within the case context; together with some cues for implementing changes to the organisation's risk propensity if so desired. The output from this research also provides a useful base from which to develop a survey instrument for assessing organisational risk propensity.     

Misspecified Recovery

Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of those states as used by investors. To better understand the challenge in distinguishing investors' beliefs from risk‐adjusted discounting, we use Perron–Frobenius Theory to isolate a positive martingale component of the stochastic discount factor process. This component recovers a probability measure that absorbs long‐term risk adjustments. When the martingale is not degenerate, surmising that this recovered probability captures investors' beliefs distorts inference about risk‐return tradeoffs. Stochastic discount factors in many structural models of asset prices have empirically relevant martingale components.     

Collective efficacy and natural hazards: differing roles of social cohesion and task-specific efficacy in shaping risk and coping beliefs

Abstract

Previous research in non-disaster contexts has shown that the concept of collective efficacy, which is a group’s sense of its ability to achieve a specific objective, assists understanding of community readiness and households’ decisions to take preparedness actions. Collective efficacy expands the concept of social capital, which refers to social resources such as trust, norms and networks, by addressing how likely communities are to activate these resources for specific tasks. This paper empirically investigates the effect of three distinct collective efficacy components on risk perception, fear and self-efficacy regarding natural hazards in Austria. The three components have differing impacts on risk and coping beliefs: (1) Social cohesion decreases risk perception and fear but has no effect on self-efficacy; (2) Efficacy belief in social support increases self-efficacy; (3) Efficacy belief in citizen groups increases risk perception and fear. The combination of efficacy belief in social support and citizen groups seems to be most promising for stimulating protective action, as they together promote both risk and coping appraisal. However, overreliance on social support may have the undesirable effect of creating a false sense of safety among disaster-prone households. The findings demonstrate that collective efficacy provides a meaningful perspective from which to examine risk and coping beliefs but caution against treating it as an umbrella concept, given the differing effects of its components. Future studies are needed to investigate the impact of collective efficacy on other key explanatory factors of protective action, such as response efficacy or non-protective responses.     

Measuring and modelling risk in a naturalistic setting

Two studies were undertaken to investigate risk perception in a military context. A questionnaire elicited cadets’ (n = 136) ratings of three categories of critical incidents (threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians) on nine qualitative risk dimensions adapted from the ‘Psychometric risk paradigm’ along with perceived personal risk, general risk, security and anticipated anxiousness. Factor analyses of average responses to the nine dimensions revealed two components: dread and new risk, the former strongly correlated with anticipated anxiousness and perceived personal and general risk. In a prospective survey, peacekeepers in Kosovo (n = 766) reported frequencies of exposure to threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians, and rated their personal risk of injury, the general risk and their trust in security relative to the peacekeeping operation. The fitness of a path model relating risk perception to risk exposure was estimated with reference to data collected after two, four and six months of deployment. Results were systematic across measurements and fit-indices in suggesting support for the model. The results confirm and extend findings from previous studies on risk perception by showing the impact of both risk characteristics (qualitative dimensions) and actual risk exposure (frequencies) on subjective risk perceptions.     

The antecedent role of personal environmental values in the relationships among trust in companies,information processing and risk perception

Trust and risk perception are important issues for industries such as petrochemical companies, typically considered ‘less trustworthy’ because of the hazards associated with their activities. In this context, individual’s trust in companies may have influence on information processing mode that individual adopts to reach a judgement such as risk perception associated with industrial hazards. We take the heuristic-systematic theory (HSM) as the model for processing information about industrial risk, with trust in companies as its antecedent and risk perception as its consequence. However, this process may be influenced by factors such as personal specific values. This paper analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the antecedent role of personal values towards environmental issues in the HSM of information processing. The model was tested using data from interviews with 992 residents in an area of the province of Castelló (Spain) close to a petrochemical complex. Structured equation models were used to analyse the data. The results demonstrate the proposed relationships. The main contribution of this paper is the corroboration of the direct and indirect effects of personal environmental values on the variables that make up the trust in companies-HSM of information processing-risk perception sequence. Finally, we recommend that the companies of the petrochemical complex consider the frank, open and bidirectional communication with the residents as the key element to break the association among pro-environmental values, distrust in the companies and perception of the risk.     

Coping with risk: analysis on the importance of integrating social perceptions on flood risk into management mechanisms – the case of the municipality of Águeda,Portugal

The paper reflects on how populations prone to flood risk perceive such hazards and the way this perception has or has not been incorporated into the measures and mechanisms of flood risk management. The frequent occurrence of flooding, as well as the population's vulnerability and exposure to this risk, shows that the municipality of Águeda is a paradigmatic case for analysis of these issues. Similar to the rest of the country, the municipality of Águeda has been neglecting the multidimensional nature of flood risk. The data collected present some disparity between the proposals and technical perspectives regarding the management and mitigation of flood risk and the perception of local populations. In addition, neither knowledge of social perception of flood risk nor of the local communities is being integrated in a substantial and pro‐active way, whether in the processes of policy‐making or in the implementation of these policies. Empirical evidence equally shows that there is a clear tendency towards acceptance and coping with flood risk by the population in the municipality of Águeda. This seems to be connected to the local populations' recognition that though it is impossible to eliminate risk, there are at the same time advantages to occupying the floodplains.     

Schöne Aussicht auf den Fluss? Wahrnehmung von Risiken aus Naturkatastrophen

Impacts of natural disasters have increased worldwide during the last decades. Facing the growing losses from natural hazards also in Germany, the question emerges how persons in likely affected areas perceive risks from natural hazards such as windstorm, flood, and earthquake. The everyday, ?intuitive“ perception of risks is basic for the individual, subjective assessment of natural risks. Consequently, perception and evaluation of risk is basic for behaviour in dangerous situations. It is also fundamental for decisions concerning preventive protective measurements. To be able to develop effective information and communication strategies and politics about natural risks, the perception and evaluation of these risks and influencing factors should be known. Therefore, the purpose of the study presented in this paper is to focus on the perception of storms, floods, and earthquakes and to study factors that influence risk perception. To study risk perception, a mail survey was conducted in summer 2001 in six regions of Germany which had been affected by windstorm, flood and / or earthquake within the last 30 years. Köln-Rodenkirchen, Passau, Karlsruhe, Neustadt/Donau, Albstadt and Rosenheim were selected as survey areas. In total, 450 persons responded the questionnaire. In the study a mixture of approaches to risk perception was applied, among them the psychometric paradigm. The project was conducted at the Institute for Insurance, Universität Karlsruhe (TH) and additionally funded by the Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge der SV Versicherungen. The results show that storm, flood, and earthquake are rated heteroge-neously regarding their general dangerousness, several risk characteristics and attributions of causes. Personal characteristics, such as age, education level, and the experience of damage seem to play a role for the general risk rating. In addition, the risk perception of homeowners and tenants differs.     

Adoption of electronic banking services in India: an extension of UTAUT2 model

Indian banks have paid sufficient attention to recent innovations in banking services delivery such as e-banking, mobile banking, mobile payment, e-wallet, and e-money services, still the acceptance of these services among consumers is sluggish. Therefore, the present study aims to identify the intention of consumers to adopt various e-banking services. The study adopted the UTAUT2 model (Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology) and extended it with constructs such as consumer innovativeness, perceived risk, and security information availability. The extended research model was tested using a questionnaire-based response collected from 721 consumers. CB-SEM (Covariance-based structural equation modeling) was used to examine the hypotheses. An empirical examination of the model helped explain the impact of the UTAUT2 model's constructs in predicting adoption intention toward e-banking services. The study also revealed the importance and impact of newly incorporated variables in explaining consumers' adoption intention toward e-banking services. The study has provided some useful insight into the factors influencing consumers' intention to adopt e-banking services to shed new light.

     

Dispute and morality in the perception of societal risks: extending the psychometric model

The psychometric paradigm has identified two classic dimensions, dread and unknown risk, structuring the perception of risks. We propose that disputed risk and morality are two additional dimensions that are relevant to describe the cognitive representation of societal risks. Disputed risk captures two aspects of a societal risk: first, that consensus about scientific evidence is low, and second, that the public debate about the risk issue is highly controversial. Morality refers to judgments of reprehensibility, capturing the fact that societal risks frequently involve violations of moral principles. In a survey study employing two samples, a household sample (N = 418) and a student sample (N = 88), participants evaluated 24 societal risks on 23 psychometric scales intended to assess the four constructs dread, unknown risk, disputed risk, and morality. Principal component analyses yielded three dimensions: a common dimension of dread and morality, a disputed risk dimension, and unknown risk. We also assessed judgments of overall riskiness for all risks. Morality and dread both proved to be strong and distinctive predictors of perceived overall riskiness in regression analyses; disputed risk and unknown risk, in contrast, do not play a substantial role as predictors. These findings were replicated across both samples. We conclude that disputed risk constitutes a novel and unique psychometric dimension; morality, on the other hand, coincides with dread in the cognitive representation of societal risks, while still showing a distinct and strong effect in the prediction of risk judgments.     

Public perception of scientific uncertainty in relation to food hazards

The research reported here aims to understand how people react to statements expressing risk uncertainty information in the context of a commonly experienced potential hazard, food related risks. Public perception of seriousness of risk for themselves, and for other people was examined for different types of uncertainty, for each of five different food hazards. The results indicated that participants responded to the different types of uncertainty in a uniform way, suggesting that perception of risk associated with uncertainty is not affected by the 'type' of uncertainty. The results further indicated that the seriousness of risk, in the presence of statements of uncertainty, was perceived to be greater for pesticides and genetic modification compared to BSE, high fat diets and Salmonella . It was argued that this could be due to the perceptions of low personal control, and high societal responsibility to protect people and societal control over exposure to the potential risks of pesticides and genetic modification. Under circumstances where people feel they have little personal control over their exposure to a particular hazard, and those social institutions that are perceived to be in control of protecting the public indicate that there is uncertainty associated with risk estimates, the hazard may appear to be 'out of control', which is associated with a perception of serious risk.     

中国台风巨灾债券利率定价研究——基于均衡定价理论

通过对我国1992年以来损失在1亿元以上的台风损失分布进行拟合,根据我国台风损失数据特征,选择一种能对具有尖峰、厚尾、偏态特征的分布进行较好拟合分布的g-h分布进行分析;在均衡定价理论的基础上构建一种台风巨灾债券利率定价模型,并利用相关数据进行定价分析,将模型应用于三种台风巨灾债券并计算出其利率。结果表明,无论是哪种类型的巨灾债券,由于利率均高于同期国债利率,对投资者来说都具有较大吸引力,是一种较为理想的巨灾风险创新产品。     

Evaluation of psychosocial and organizational factors in offshore safety: a comparative study

This study compares UK and Norwegian offshore workers' evaluations of social and organizational factors that can have an impact upon safety on offshore installations. A total of 1138 Norwegian (87% response rate) and 622 UK workers (40% response rate) responded to a self-completion questionnaire, which was distributed to 18 installations in February/March 1994. The questionnaire contained six scales that were suitable and relevant for the purposes of comparison. These scales measured ‘risk perception’, ‘satisfaction with safety measures’, ‘perceptions of the job situation’, ‘attitudes to safety’, ‘perceptions of others' commitment to safety’ and ‘perceptions of social support’. The data show clear differences in how UK and Norwegian workers evaluate various social and organizational factors that can have an impact upon safety, however, eta² analysis indicated that for most of the scales ‘installation’ explained a greater percentage of the variance than sector. The exceptions to this were scales measuring ‘safety attitudes’ where both sector and installation contributed equally to the effects. Although the results from the ‘safety attitudes’ scales should be interpreted with caution (due to low internal reliability), it is possible that they are tapping into more deeply held beliefs about the nature of safety, e.g. ‘fatalism’ and the ‘causes of accidents’. In contrast, the other scales are measuring factors directly related to the working environment such as perceptions of risk and satisfaction with safety measures on the installation. These may reflect the prevailing ‘safety climate’ or ‘atmosphere’ on the installations surveyed, whereas constructs such as ‘fatalism’, etc. may be reflections of underlying ‘cultural’ values. Recognizing the existence of different ‘safety cultures’ and understanding the processes which lie behind them could have implications for safety management in an industry which is highly international in nature and in which workers' are often required to work in foreign countries for varying periods of time.     

Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk

Coastal risk is already high in several parts of the world and is expected to be amplified by climate change, which makes it necessary to outline effective risk management strategies. Risk managers assume that increasing awareness of coastal risk is the key to public support and endorsement of risk management strategies – an assumption that underlies a common worldview on the public understanding of science, which has been named the deficit model. We argue that the effects of awareness are not as straightforward. In particular, awareness of coastal hazards might not lead to more technically accurate risk perceptions. Based on research on risk perception normalization, we explored the hypothesis that coastal risk awareness reduces coastal risk perception – in particular the perceived likelihood of occurrence of coastal hazards – through its effect on reliance on protective measures to prevent risk. Individuals can rely on protective measures, even when those are not effective, as a positive illusion to reduce risk perception. This effect might be stronger for higher probability hazards and for permanent residents of costal zones. Data from 410 individuals living in coastal zones corroborated most of our expectations. Global results demonstrated a risk normalization effect mediated by reliance on current measures. Additional analyses made clear that this effect occurred in 2 of the 5 high-probability hazards (flood and storm), and not in the low-probability hazard (tsunami). Normalization might be more likely among high-probability hazards which entail catastrophic and immediate impacts. This effect was also found among permanent residents, but not among temporary residents. Results imply that coastal risk management might benefit from (a) taking risk perception normalization effects into account, (b) tailoring strategies for permanent and temporary residents and (c) promoting a higher public engagement, which would facilitate a more adaptive and effective coping with coastal risk than the use of positive illusions.     

The use of expected value in pricing judgments

Lacking specific knowledge, the public perceives technical risks based on their trust in the authorities. This article explored the role of shared value in the process of trust judgment and risk perception of genetically modified (GM) foods. Study 1 showed that social trust was a mediator between shared value and risk perception. Higher value similarity between individual and spokesperson resulted in deeper trust in the institution; moreover, social trust effectively reduced public risk perception of GM foods. Study 2 demonstrated that shared value improved in the care and competence dimensions of trust. The two dimensions of trust were positively related, but only competence had a significant influence on risk perception. Implications for risk communication are discussed.