Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns

This paper empirically studies the predictability of emerging markets’ stock returns by business cycle variables and the role of developed markets’ business cycle dynamics in this respect. The evidence shows that the link between business cycles and future stock market returns among emerging markets is considerably weaker than among developed markets. By contrast, I find strong evidence of stock return predictability by the respective country’s dividend-price ratio. This latter finding could reflect that variation in dividend-price ratios potentially reflects both the temporary impact of “hot money” inflows on emerging markets’ asset prices and rational expectations of future returns.     

A survey of executive compensation contracts in China’s listed companies

We analyze 228 executive compensation contracts voluntarily disclosed by Chinese listed firms and find that central-government-controlled companies disclose more information in executive compensation contracts than local-government-controlled and non-government-controlled companies. Cash-based payments are the main form of executive compensation, whereas equity-based payments are seldom used by Chinese listed companies. On average, there are no significant differences in the value of basic salaries and performance-based compensation in executive compensation contracts. But, compared with their counterparts in non-government-controlled companies, executives in government-controlled companies are given more incentive compensation. Accounting earnings are typically used in executive compensation contracts, with few firms using stock returns to evaluate their executives. However, the use of non-financial measures has increased significantly since 2007.     

Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets

Our paper focuses on commodity financialization and the gradual integration between commodity and financial markets, investigating to what extent shocks in stock markets impact commodity price volatility, and the persistency of the phenomenon. To this end, we estimate Volatility Impulse Response Function from stock markets to agricultural commodity markets over a symmetric window before and after two of the most important bubble bursts since the new millennium, the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 financial crises. Results highlight that volatility spillover increased significantly after the 2008 financial crises, signalling a rising interconnection between financial and agricultural commodity markets.     

The role of parent firms in business groups’ internal capital markets

Using a unique dataset of unconsolidated financial statements, we investigate the investment and financing policies of parent firms in South Korea's business groups over the period 2003–2016. Parent firms add to their equity-stake holdings substantially each year to support affiliated firms’ capital expenditures. Parent firms finance their equity-stake investment primarily with external funds. These tendencies are more pronounced if parents sit high in the pyramidal chain or are central to controlling other group firms and if parents belong to large business groups. Overall, parent firms prioritize their role as capital raisers and distributors for affiliated firms, and business groups’ internal capital markets are supported by external finance.     

Acquirers’ earnings management ahead of stock-for-stock bids in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets

The accounting literature has found evidence that acquirers in stock-for-stock M&A have typically managed earnings upwards ahead of a bid. Other literatures have concluded that, when stock prices are high and rising, M&A is higher, more M&A is financed with stock, market sentiment and stockholders’ perceptions of information appear to change, and in these circumstances new (arbitrage) motivations for M&A emerge. This paper revisits earnings management ahead of M&A in the light of these findings, comparing experience in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets. It finds that such earnings management is more pronounced in hot markets; that only in such markets are positive discretionary accruals commonly associated with positive abnormal returns on the announcement of earnings; and that in such markets – against the expectations from signalling theory – these positive returns are not reversed on announcement of a stock-for-stock bid. The results suggest that the economic benefits achieved by engaging in earnings management during hot markets are indeed significant: in hot markets, we estimate that on average share acquirers engage in working capital accrual management equivalent to over a third of the average acquirer’s return on total assets in that year; and that this earnings management is associated with increases in market value which are statistically and economically significant, enabling the bidder to secure control of the target with fewer shares.     

The impact of directors’ and officers’ insurance on audit pricing: Evidence from UK companies

This paper examines the impact of directors’ and officers’ (D&O) insurance on audit pricing in a large sample of UK companies. The existence of D&O insurance is expected to exert a dual impact on auditors’ pricing decisions. The presence of an additional source of funds to satisfy stakeholder claims in the event of audit client failure suggests that audit fees in insured companies should be lower. Alternatively, recent research has identified a positive link between the presence of D&O insurance and a number of characteristics traditionally associated with more expensive audits. The main objective of this study is to ascertain which of these influences pre-dominates. Analysing a sample of 753 UK listed companies in the early 1990s, when companies were obliged to disclose the presence of D&O insurance, this study shows that D&O insurance is associated with higher audit fees. It also confirms that insured companies are larger, more complex and present a greater audit risk (using a range of measures) than uninsured companies. Further analysis suggests that the impact of D&O insurance on audit fees may be influenced by company size, auditor size, and the extent of non-executive presence on the company's board.     

Risk-shifting and the regulation of bank CEOs’ compensation

This paper analyzes the effects of two regulatory mechanisms, namely a regulation of the structure of bank CEOs incentive pay and sanctions for the CEOs of failed banks, on bank risk shifting. We extend a standard model of CEO compensation by incorporating leverage and an investment decision. To the extent that bank depositors and creditors are even partially protected by public guarantees, we show that it is in the interests of bank shareholders to choose more risky investments than would be socially optimal, and therefore to design a CEO contract with excessive risk taking incentives. Thus, we argue that current corporate governance arrangements in the banking sector are not efficient. In this setting, we show that putting in place one of the aforementioned mechanisms could yield the socially optimal outcome at no cost. We also identify some limitations and potential perverse effects of these mechanisms.     

Asymmetric multifractal features of the price–volume correlation in China’s gold futures market based on MF-ADCCA

In recent years, fractal theory has become a recognized research direction for explaining various complex phenomena that are difficult to constrain in the conventional efficient market hypothesis for financial markets. Moreover, because the gold futures prices are crucial to the futures market, research on the relationship between quantity and price is important for understanding market fluctuations. Therefore, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the multifractal features and asymmetry in the price–volume correlation of China’s gold futures market based on the multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis method¹ . Results show that the cross-correlation between market price and volume is asymmetric and multifractal and that multifractal features are stronger when the price increases compared with when it declines. Moreover, the multifractal features vary over time. These findings indicate that the risk of China’s gold futures market will change with the price trend over time.     

Research on the Transmission of the Influence of the Quantitative Easing Policy on China’s Housing Price Bubble

The Federal Reserve has implemented the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy (QE2) in November 4th 2010, which has dealt a heavy blow upon the liquidity of China.The sudden dollar overhang causes great pressure of RMB appreciation. Based on the analysis of the following chain-reactions, this paper discovers and concludes the potential transmission mechanism of how QE2 influence China’s housing price bubble. At last, related policy recommendations are proposed.     

The effect of chief financial officers’ accounting expertise on corporate tax avoidance: the role of compensation design

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Accounting expertise is closely related to corporate tax planning, and hence, corporate chief financial officers (CFOs) with accounting expertise may...     

The mediating role of happiness on the effect of locomotion and effort on salesperson’s performance and cross-selling: the case of financial insurance

In this study, the authors propose a theoretical framework and show how salespeople’s locomotion orientation and effort increase financial sales outcomes (e.g., performance and cross-selling). We propose that a salesperson’s happiness plays a mediating mechanism in these main effects. The authors collected data from two samples. In Study 1, the authors collected data from financial insurance brokers, which worked as a link between insurance companies and customers. In Study 2, the authors analyzed answers from salespeople working on home improvement and construction products and services. First, the results demonstrate that the salespersons’ locomotion (an orientation toward a behavior), effort, and happiness increased sales performance (main effects). Second, salespersons’ locomotion and effort have an indirect effect through individuals’ happiness on our dependent variables, such as sales performance, product performance and cross-selling. Firms can improve individuals’ locomotion and effort by developing goal setting and goal striving.

     

The effects of executive compensation and outside monitoring on firms’ pre-repurchase disclosure behavior and post-repurchase performance

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We show that corporate governance mechanisms play an important role in controlling managers’ opportunistic behavior. Low executive equity...     

Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets

This paper examines the impact of global financial market uncertainty and domestic macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets. In particular, by applying the wavelet analysis approach, we are able to examine stock–bond correlations over different time horizons in ten emerging markets. We find that stock–bond correlation patterns vary significantly between the time horizons. In particular, the correlation in short horizon changes the sign rapidly showing sustainable negative episodes while the correlation in long horizon stays positive most of the time. The most important factor influencing stock–bond correlation in short horizon is the monetary policy stance, while the factors with the greatest long-term impact are inflation and stock market uncertainty. Finally, global stock market uncertainty plays a more significant role than global bond market uncertainty in explaining stock–bond correlations in emerging markets.     

Does debt concentration depend on the risk-taking incentives in CEO compensation?

Using a sample of US non-financial firms we show that an increase in risk-taking incentives in CEO pay is associated with a greater debt concentration by debt type. This result holds in various empirical settings that account for endogeneity and is in line with the view that a more concentrated debt structure in fewer debt types reduces coordination problems among creditors and the related financial distress costs. Along these lines, we find our results are stronger in riskier firms, in firms with more volatile cash-flows or less stakeholder-orientation and when CEO pay incentives are embedded in vested options that are expected to favor business choices with more immediate negative effects on debtholders' wealth. Overall, our findings are consistent with theoretical models in which the debt structure of a firm acts as a commitment device.     

Entry and capital structure mimicking in concentrated markets: The role of incumbents’ financial disclosures

We examine whether the public availability of product market incumbents' financial disclosures leads to greater capital structure mimicking of incumbents by entrants. Exploiting a change in disclosure enforcement for German private firms in the mid-2000s, we find entrant-incumbent mimicking rises substantially in concentrated markets once incumbents' financial statements are publicly available. Additional tests exploring potential mechanisms are more consistent with interfirm learning underlying the effect than alternative channels. Our findings shed light on the effects of competitor financial statement disclosure on private firms’ initial financing decisions and highlight how capital structure dependencies among peer firms arise.     

Leverage and reinsurance effects on loss reserves in the United Kingdom’s property–casualty insurance industry

We examine the relation between loss reserving errors, leverage and reinsurance in the UK’s property–casualty insurance industry. We find that financially weak insurers under-estimate reserves to reduce leverage, and so pre-empt costly regulatory scrutiny. However, at very high leverage, insurers over-reserve, suggesting a non-linear relation between leverage and reserving policy. We also investigate whether monitoring by reinsurers reduces reserving errors, and find that highly reinsured insurers are less likely to make loss reserve errors. However, the use of proportional reinsurance does not affect loss reserve accuracy.     

Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of ‘random’ price changes

Using trades and quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delilcated interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean revrting limit orders that lead to sub-diffusion (or anti-persistence). We define and study a model where the price, at any instant, is the result of the impact of all past trades, mediated by a non-constant ‘propagator’ in time that describes the response of the market to a single trade. Within this model, the market is shown to be, in a precise sense, at a critical point, where the price is purely diffusive and the average response function almost constant. We find empirically, and discuss theoretically, a fluctuation-response relation. We also discuss the fraction of truly informed market orders, that correctly anticipate short-term moves, and find that it is quite small.     

On the effects of banks�� equity ownership on credit markets

Recent deregulation of the banking sector in the US and in Europe allows commercial banks to hold equity in non-financial firms. We develop a model to investigate the effects of bank equity stakes in firms on credit market competition. The main result is that an equity stake confers a competitive advantage to the holding bank, which in equilibrium results in decreased competition in credit markets and higher interest rates being charged to firms. However, regulatory limits on the size of a bank’s stake may, under certain conditions, be counterproductive: they could actually strengthen the equity-owning bank’s competitive advantage. Our findings shed new light on the role of equity in lending relationships, and highlight that, in addition to the well-known prudential aspects, there is an antitrust dimension in the separation of banking and commerce.     

Kolmogorov’s forward PIDE and forward transition rates in life insurance

We consider a doubly stochastic Markov chain, where the transition intensities are modelled as diffusion processes. Here we present a forward partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the transition probabilities. This is a generalisation of Kolmogorov’s forward differential equation. In this set-up, we define forward transition rates, generalising the concept of forward rates, e.g. the forward mortality rate. These models are applicable in e.g. life insurance mathematics, which is treated in the paper. The results presented follow from the general forward PIDE for stochastic processes, of which the Fokker–Planck differential equation and Kolmogorov’s forward differential equation are the two most known special cases. We end the paper by considering the semi-Markov case, which can also be considered a special case of a general forward partial integro-differential equation.