Traffic risk perception,road safety attitudes,and behaviors among road users: a comparison of Turkey and Norway

The present study aims to investigate differences in road safety attitudes, driver behavior, and traffic risk perception between Turkey and Norway. A questionnaire survey was conducted among a sample of Norwegian (n?=?247) and Turkish (n?=?213) road users. The results show that Turkish respondents perceived traffic risk to be higher than Norwegian respondents. Turkish respondents reported safer attitudes towards drinking and driving than Norwegian respondents, while Norwegians reported safer attitudes towards speeding. Turkish respondents reported a lower frequency of speeding behaviors than Norwegian respondents, whereas Norwegian respondents reported a lower frequency of drinking and driving. Traffic risk perception was related to road safety attitudes and behaviors among Norwegian respondents but not among Turkish respondents. The results were discussed with respect to differences in traffic safety, traffic culture, and the development levels in Turkey and Norway.     

Managerial optimism: New observations on the unifying theory

Managerial optimism theory is behavioral finance's greatest achievement. It explains two prominent features of corporate financial behavior – over‐investment and pecking‐order capital structure preferences – that otherwise require two different theories with mutually incompatible assumptions about managerial loyalties to shareholder‐value maximization. After reviewing the development of managerial optimism as a unifying theory, I use a simple change of measure to transform risk‐averse optimism to risk‐neutral probabilities that can be pessimistic or optimistic depending on wealth changes. This unexplored feature has implications for, among other things, pay for performance when managers are excessively optimistic.     

An asymmetrical approach to understanding consumer characteristics in banking trust during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

This study aims to examine how perceived banking management, the perception of the context in which the banking system operates, and other consumer characteristics have interacted to create different recipes of banking trust during the second wave which began in October 2020 of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. To scrutinize this configurational reasoning, fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was implemented. Using a sample of 1319 Italian respondents, this study suggests that high financial literacy combined with an optimistic attitude during the pandemic are key factors for achieving high banking trust. Furthermore, the results suggest that high perceived conspiracy is linked to low banking trust. These findings can help managers design differentiated strategies to attract depositors and invite the Italian government to double its efforts in restoring the people’s optimism.     

Predictors of safety behaviour among emergency responders on the highways

Safety behaviour is one of the main determinants of job-related accidents. Few studies have focused on safety behaviour of emergency responders. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the impact of psychosocial predictors on safety behaviour, taking into consideration a sample of Italian emergency responders operating on the highways (N?=?203). Results showed that adherence to safety procedures, reporting accident risk and use of individual protection devices were predicted by risk perception and safety climate. The attitude of priorities of rescue operations vs. safety predicted reporting accident risk. The conceptual and practical implications that emerged are discussed.     

Analyst Optimism and Incentives under Market Uncertainty

We examine how analysts’ changing incentives driven by changes in market uncertainty affect their forecast optimism. Analysts issue more optimistically biased earnings forecasts and buy recommendations under high market uncertainty (VIX). The lower reputational costs and larger benefits of optimistic output explain the increased optimistic output: Analysts are less likely to be penalized for inaccuracy and can stimulate more trading activity from optimistically biased output when market uncertainty is high. We find that the likelihood of analysts’ turnover decreases, while the trading volume associated with optimistic output increases, with VIX. No evidence suggests that analysts’ self‐selection affects our findings on optimism and market uncertainty.     

Prozac for depressed states? Effect of mood on local economic recessions

This paper examines whether people's mood and optimism affect economic activity. We consider two sets of exogenous proxies for optimism that are unrelated to the economic environment: (1) weather (average temperature and cloud cover) and (2) sports and political optimism. We show that economic recessions are weaker and expansions are stronger in the United States where local individuals are more optimistic. Further, local optimism has a stronger impact on state‐level business cycles of smaller states and regions with low levels of risk sharing. In contrast, the incremental effects of local optimism are weaker in states where people are younger, more educated and sophisticated, and socially more connected. States with larger concentration of minority and urban population also exhibit lower sensitivity to variations in mood and optimism. Alternative explanations based on the state's industrial composition, tax environment, migration, seasonal affective disorder (SAD), oil shocks, and direct economic impact of weather cannot explain these findings.     

Determinants of stakeholders’ attitudes towards a new technology: nanotechnology applications for food,water, energy and medicine

Stakeholder risk and benefit perceptions and attitudes towards a technology matter for the societal response to these technologies. This is especially the case for technological innovations where the public has no direct experience with the technology and its applications. In such cases, expert views are the main source for public opinion formation. Stakeholder risk and benefit perception, and their effect on attitudes towards a new technology (nanotechnology) and its applications were examined in two studies. In a survey, the effect of risk and benefit perception on attitudes to nanotechnology in specific application domains (energy, water, food and medicine) was examined. While risk and benefit perception predicted much of the variance in attitude, experts were more positive about medicine applications and more negative about food applications than could be explained through risk and benefit perception. In the second study, expert focus groups were asked for reasons why food and medicine were seen as more negative and positive than based on the risk and benefit perceptions as measured in the survey. For medicine, the urgency and unique potential of nanotechnology was seen as a reason as why this domain was liked more. For food, the high level of uncertainty about risk assessment and about exposure of consumers and the lack of urgency in applying nanotechnology to food was seen as a reason this domain was liked less. In addition, experts voiced concern about potential negative public response to food applications as reasons for their negative attitude. These results thus suggest that both risk and benefit perception consist of multiple dimensions that require further exploration.     

Risk perceptions and risk attitudes among Chinese consumers: the toxic capsule crisis

The toxic capsule crisis (TCC) shocked China in 2012, and seriously harmed consumer confidence. Based on a firsthand survey in 12 provinces with 850 observations, this paper examines Chinese consumers’ risk perceptions and risk attitudes about drugs after the TCC. The empirical results suggest that Chinese consumers’ risk perceptions (attributed likelihood of a drug safety accident occurrence) and risk attitudes (measured as level of concern about drug labeling) are weakly negatively correlated, but that risk perceptions are positively correlated with consumer concern about drug safety problems in general. Risk perception was higher among male consumers and those from rural areas, reporting a religious faith, of higher education, and with a family member who has experienced problems caused by drug safety problems. Those reporting a higher level of concern about drug safety issues, with a higher level of understanding of TCC, who reported less frequent physical examinations, and who searched for information after the TCC also had a higher level of risk perception. Being or having a family member who engaged in the health industry and being more satisfied with the government response to the TCC decreased risk perception. Regarding risk attitude, older consumers, those with a higher level of education and with a self-reported religious faith, and those less prepared including those who did not purchase health insurance, do not have health exams as frequently, and who do not take measures of protection and isolation when ill are more concerned about drug labeling information.     

Book reviews

Valid measures of how people view risks due to combinations of hazards are needed. 320 adult smokers responded to four vignettes in which hypothetical men were described as having high or low levels of (1) smoking and (2) either (a) blood cholesterol or (b) family history of CHD (coronary heart disease). Ratings of the risk of a heart attack were made using one of three different rating scales: (a) nine‐point, (b) 101‐point, and (c) unbounded. The nine‐point scale yielded a strong sub‐additive interaction, the 101‐point scale yielded a weak sub‐additive interaction, and the unbounded scale yielded a weak synergistic interaction. Although respondents preferred the nine‐point scale, evidence from this and other studies suggest that scales with nine points or fewer should not be used to assess perceptions of risks due to multiple hazards.     

Personality and domain‐specific risk taking

The concept of risk propensity has been the subject of both theoretical and empirical investigation, but with little consensus about its definition and measurement. To address this need, a new scale assessing overall risk propensity in terms of reported frequency of risk behaviours in six domains was developed and applied: recreation, health, career, finance, safety and social. The paper describes the properties of the scale and its correlates: demographic variables, biographical self‐reports, and the NEO PI‐R, a Five Factor personality inventory (N?=?2041). There are three main results. First, risk propensity has clear links with age and sex, and with objective measures of career‐related risk taking (changing jobs and setting up a business). Second, the data show risk propensity to be strongly rooted in personality. A clear Big Five pattern emerges for overall risk propensity, combining high extraversion and openness with low neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. At the subscale level, sensation‐seeking surfaces as a key important component of risk propensity. Third, risk propensity differs markedly in its distribution across job types and business sectors. These findings are interpreted as indicating that risk takers are of three non‐exclusive types: stimulation seekers, goal achievers, and risk adapters. Only the first group is truly risk seeking, the others are more correctly viewed as risk bearers. The implications for risk research and management are discussed.     

Social cognition and personality traits related to risky driving in a Turkish sample

Aims: The aim of the study was to make a theoretical contribution by investigating social cognitive factors and personality traits related to risky driver behaviour in a Turkish sample. The study tested three theoretical models by Structural Equation Modelling: (1) a model using risk perception and attitudes towards traffic safety to predict driver behaviour, (2) a model which used normlessness and sensation-seeking traits to predict such behaviour and (3) a model which used both the social cognitive factors and personality traits to predict driver behaviour. Methods: A questionnaire survey with validated measurement instruments was conducted in a sample of Turkish drivers (n?=?213). The response rate was 61%. Results: A combined social cognitive and personality trait model had tolerable fit and explained 24% of the variance in driver behaviour. The relations between personality traits and risk perception with driver behaviour were mediated through attitudes towards traffic safety. Risk-taking personality traits had relatively strong relations to unsafe driver behaviour, whereas risk perception had a relatively weak relation to such behaviour. Conclusions: A combined social cognitive and trait approach may be efficient in human factor campaigns aimed to reduce risky driver behaviour in Turkey. Personality traits may be important for driver behaviour because they influence the attitudinal determinants of such behaviour. Increased police enforcement of road traffic regulations may reduce risky driving among individuals with normlessness and sensation-seeking traits. Personality traits may also guide efforts aimed at early identification of risky drivers and campaigns could be tailored to specific personality characteristics.     

乐观预期、保障能力与商业保险购买——来自中国家庭的微观证据

本文基于中国家庭微观调查数据,在考虑商业保险“保障”和“投资”双重属性的前提下,实证研究了乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买的影响。结果发现,乐观预期对家庭商业保险购买存在显著的积极影响,即户主乐观预期程度越高,家庭购买商业保险的意愿越强。进一步区分保障型商业保险和投资型商业保险,发现乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响主要来自对投资型商业保险的需求,对保障型商业保险购买的影响则不显著。更重要地,不同风险保障能力下乐观预期对商业保险购买存在异质性影响,家庭储蓄较多、社会保障覆盖较好以及社会资本水平较高的家庭,乐观预期对商业保险购买的积极影响更大。本研究不仅有助于从预期视角理解商业保险市场的“有限参与”之谜,也为提升家庭风险保障和财富增值能力提供了借鉴。     

Business Optimism for Small,Medium and Large Firms: Does It Explain Investment?*

We use UK survey data on variation in business optimism by manufacturing size group to estimate the determinants of optimism using OLS and SURE. There are similarities across the size groups but also some differences: the medium‐size group seems to have been unusually affected by real interest rates in recent years. We also model investment authorisations, conditional on business optimism. Again, there are similarities across the size groups. However, the largest‐size group, and possibly also the medium‐size group, seem to be investing less in recent years in relation to reported optimism. By contrast, capital investment by smaller‐sized firms has been stable in relation to business optimism. Some tentative explanations for these findings are explored.     

Information needs and risk perception as predictors of risk information seeking

This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of public's information sufficiency, risk perception, and self‐efficacy as predictors of intended risk information seeking behaviour. Based on theoretical assumptions, measurement instruments for relevant concepts were developed and validated using data from a mail questionnaire. Relationships among selected determinants of risk information seeking behaviour were analysed. Results indicate that information needs, risk perception, and current knowledge are direct predictors of intentions to seek information. Trust, engagement, social influence, and self‐efficacy affect risk perception and the need for information is influenced by engagement and social influence.     

Employee images of risk

Risk perception and risk judgements are interesting because they may influence behaviour as well as decision making related to hazards. Risk perception consists of a rational as well as an emotional component. In the present study the rational and affective components of perceived risk were measured separately and the hypothesis that they may be related differently to risk behaviour was tested. In 1997 and 1998 a self-completion questionnaire survey was carried out among employees at 14 plants within the industrial company Norsk Hydro. The plants belonged to several divisions within the company. A total of 814 respondents replied to the questionnaire. Structural equation modelling was used to test models aimed at determining the relations between risk perception and behaviour. The affective component of risk perception and risk behaviour was found to be independent variables. The rational component seemed to have a significant, however small, effect on behaviour. Acceptability of rule violations was the most important predictor, probably because acceptability also was associated with how often the respondents took chances and broke safety rules. The models explained about 50 per cent of the variance in risk behaviour.     

Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater‐irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

This paper draws upon the social science literature to evaluate whether materialist/post‐materialist, environmental, and scientific/technological worldviews predict levels of support for biotechnology applications. The novelty of this research is two‐fold: 1) it incorporates the post‐materialist hypothesis in risk perception models, and 2) it evaluates the effects of the these three worldviews simultaneously. Data from a regional southwest telephone survey in the United States conducted in Spring 2004 were used to investigate whether these three worldviews were related to support of various animal and plant biotechnology applications. The results illustrated that post‐materialist values were not significantly related to support for animal or plant biotechnology applications. However, environmental and science and technology measures were related to support. One of the new ecological paradigm items, “humans have the right to modify nature,” was consistently related to support for animal and plant biotechnology applications, and anti‐anthropocentric values were related to support for two plant applications. General attitudes toward science and technology were related to support for both animal and plant biotechnology applications. The results provide evidence that perceptions of these applications are multi‐dimensional and that respondents conceptualize animal and plant biotechnology applications differently.     

Optimism pattern of all-star analysts

This paper studies what drives the change in optimism among all-star analysts. Using unique hand collected data for the entire career of all-star analysts, the paper discovers the optimism patterns in their forecasts and recommendations. One the one hand, while analysts tend to issue more optimistic estimate forecasts, they are less likely to issue optimistic recommendations after becoming all-stars. On the other hand, analysts appear to be less optimistic in terms of both estimates and recommendations after being eliminated from the all-star list. The results are significant controlling for forecast accuracy, firm coverage, and job separation effect. This is the first study to look at both the optimism pattern of all-star analysts, and the effect of demotion from all-star team on analyst optimism.     

Consumer reactions to unfamiliar technologies: mental and social formation of perceptions and attitudes toward nano and GM products

Abstract

Using focus groups, the research analyses the mental and social processes through which consumers form perceptions and opinions about unfamiliar technologies and the derived products, taking the perception of nanotechnology and nano-products, GM and GM products as example. Our findings suggest that limited understanding of the technological principles and lack of (visible) products prevent the formation of experience-based attitudes and behavioral intentions. In this context, consumers interpret and assess cognitive interventions such as product labels or product information, as well as the trustworthiness of unfamiliar information sources, based on heuristic clues, association, mutual reassurance and previous attitudes. The established determinants of technology risk perception (e.g. knowledge, social norms, perceived risks and benefits and controllability) were the subject of constant deliberation and negotiation among participants. Consequently, the perception of risk and technology communication interventions might vary greatly across different locations and segments of the public, complicating risk communication and trust-building.     

Managerial attitudes and corporate actions

We administer psychometric tests to senior executives to obtain evidence on their underlying psychological traits and attitudes. We find US CEOs differ significantly from non-US CEOs in terms of their underlying attitudes. In addition, we find that CEOs are significantly more optimistic and risk-tolerant than the lay population. We provide evidence that CEOs' behavioral traits such as optimism and managerial risk-aversion are related to corporate financial policies. Further, we provide new empirical evidence that CEO traits such as risk-aversion and time preference are related to their compensation.     

Analysts' forecast error: a robust prediction model and its short‐term trading profitability

This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the investment horizon salient to trading based on predicting the error in analysts' earnings forecasts. An econometric framework is proposed that accommodates the stylized fact of extreme values in the forecast error series. We find that between 1998 and 2010, the strategy of taking a long (short) position in stocks with the most pessimistic (optimistic) I/B/E/S forecast has an annual risk‐adjusted return of 16.56 per cent before transaction costs. The robust method used to predict this pessimism (optimism) and the one‐week investment horizon are the key drivers of the strategy's profitability.