Risk perceptions,preferences and management strategies: evidence from a case study using German livestock farmers

We analyze the factors affecting farmers’ choice accounting for farm, farmer, and household characteristics as well as elicited risk perception and risk preferences. We consider three alternative hypothetical methods for assessing risk preferences to test the stability and behavioral validity of them. Our case study focuses on livestock farmers in the German region North Rhine-Westphalia. We find that risk preferences are context depending, i.e. differ across different fields of farm-level decision-making. Furthermore, our analysis shows that risk-averse farmers are more likely to prioritize on-farm risk management strategies over off-farm strategies. Moreover, higher risk perception, age, subjective numeracy, farm succession, farm size, and the proportion of rented land show a significant impact on farmers’ risk behavior     

Risk perception and risk management in Norwegian aquaculture

This exploratory study seeks to provide empirical knowledge about fish farmers' risk attitudes, risk sources and risk management tools by presenting the results from a survey among Norwegian fish farming companies. The results show that fish farmers think of themselves as only moderately risk averse compared, for instance, to crop and livestock farmers. The most important sources of risk are considered to be future salmon prices, institutional risks and fish diseases, while keeping costs low is the most important risk management tool.     

Risk management challenges of shared public services: a comparative analysis of Scotland and Finland

This paper analyses the risk management challenges of shared service provision in Scotland and Finland. Policy context and institutional frameworks largely determine the local choice of organizational arrangements and so the risks that arise and the way they are shared. Finnish municipalities have developed joint municipal arrangements for sharing services, whereas Scotland's shared service challenges are related to the historical separation of health and social care services and the search for cost savings while improving service effectiveness.     

Risk perception and risk management in the Middle East market: theory and practice of multinational enterprises in Saudi Arabia

This exploratory study investigates the risk perception and risk management strategies of Western multinational enterprises in the Middle East. A sample of 49 German companies operating in Saudi Arabia provides the empirical setting for this research. The study reveals that cultural risk is assessed as more important in the business environment than political, financial, and economic risk. The most critical risk factors are not sufficiently included in the methodology of country risk measures, which are often used as a source for country‐specific risk information. In terms of risk management strategies, participating firms use mostly informal approaches rather than structured hedging or insurance products. Furthermore, we find that firm size has implications on the perception of some risk factors and for the level of risk management sophistication.     

Risk management strategies for banks

We analyze optimal risk management strategies of a bank financed with deposits and equity in a one period model. The bank’s motivation for risk management comes from deposits which can lead to bank runs. In the event of such a run, liquidation costs arise. The hedging strategy that maximizes the value of equity is derived. We identify conditions under which well known results such as complete hedging, maximal speculation or irrelevance of the hedging decision are obtained. The initial debt ratio, the size of the liquidation costs, regulatory restrictions, the volatility of the risky asset and the spread between the riskless interest rate and the deposit rate are shown to be the important parameters that drive the bank’s hedging decision. We further extend this basic model to include counterparty risk constraints on the forward contract used for hedging.     

Risk perceptions across the current political spectrum in Finland: a study of party members

Political party member perceptions of risk continue to attract a great deal of attention in current public discourse and media coverage, yet little research exists in terms of a comparative analysis of Finnish political parties’ views on the issue. Party members are in many ways a highly significant social group, one that exercises a great deal of decision-making power in modern civil societies. This article provides a novel and up-to-date look into the key areas of perceived risk held by the members of Finland’s political parties, in addition to a comparison of inter-party differences and similarities. The analysis is based on a unique survey data-set of the members of Finland’s six major political parties (N = 12,427). Included are the Finns Party, Centre Party, Left Alliance, Social Democratic Party, Green League and National Coalition Party. Together, these represent the political spectrum in Finland. Risk factors included primary categories dealing with various national, institutional, cultural and economic issues. Also included in the analysis was a look into whether length of party membership affects risk concern for the included issues. Findings showed that national and external risks were more of a concern for the Finns Party, while the Left and the Social Democrats considered economic issues a greater risk than did others. Furthermore, economic risk was most concerning to the left while external risks were generally viewed in line with the current centre-right administration. Some notable differences between old and new party members were also found. Findings emphasize the importance of understanding how political party members differ in their views of various societal risks while providing new points of comparison between those parties toward improved clarity of the national political landscape.     

As Time Goes By: The Beginnings of Social and Behavioural Science Risk Research

Attempts at studying risk issues in the social and behavioural sciences have now been going on for about 30 years. A brief summary of the first Swedish project, launched in 1975, and now available on the Internet site www.dynam‐it.com/risk, is presented. It was a fairly large‐scale attempt to review work then available or in a start‐up phase in several disciplines, mainly in the social sciences, but also in some of the humanities and in technology. The usual problems of interdisciplinary work were met with, and are briefly noted here. However, there was also a philosophical rift between empirical and theoretical/conceptual approaches which surfaced in requirements of “a theory of risk” and an accompanying and integrated analysis of risk generation in society. These requirements are as difficult to meet today as they were in the 1970s, and in some quarters they are just as demanding. However, the quest for “a theory of risk” is arguably meaningless, and fruitful research on risk topics is hardly to be expected to be the result from merely analysing the meaning of the word. Risk is just a four‐letter word.     

Risk Perception and Worry Related to Adolescents' Judgement of Three Types of Risk

The core aim of this study was to examine determinants of anticipated worry related to three types of risk among adolescents. The participants were Norwegian high‐school students aged 15–19 years (n = 335). They were students at 6 high schools and a total of 15 randomly selected school classes participated in the study. All the students were asked to fill in a self‐completion questionnaire. The response rate was 100 per cent. The participants were shown three video sequences of three‐minute conversations between a person and a listener discussing three risk sources, which each had developed into a problem (drug use, depression, and sexual abuse). The video sequences were shown to the students when they were in their classes. The results showed that there were gender differences in probability assessments as well as in anticipated worry related to the three types of risk. There were also differences in worry depending on the respondent's past experience with an identical or similar problem or risk. In addition to cognitive evaluations, own experience and gender, general worry, social support seeking, anxiety and depression significantly predicted worry. These variables explained 52 per cent of the variance. Worry may be a significant predictor of risk behaviour as well as decisions concerning risks and risk reduction. The results are related to the risk‐as‐feelings hypothesis (Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee and Welch) and other risk decision models are also discussed.     

Perception of technological risk: insights from research and lessons for risk communication and management

Technology has become a familiar companion in all areas of life. Production consumption, administration, education, communication, and leisure activities are all shaped by the use of technologies. However, people often associate with the term ‘technology’ attributes, such as catastrophic and potentially dangerous, and tend to take the benefits of technological products for granted. This asymmetry in risk–benefit perception is one of the main reasons why many consumers are concerned about ‘hidden’ risks of technologies and why they demand stringent regulatory actions when they feel unduly exposed to potential emissions or waste products associated with the lifecycle of technologies. This situation is often aggravated by social amplification processes, by which even small risks receive high media attention and are blown out of proportion in the public arena. At the same time, however, one needs to acknowledge that many technologies have the potential to harm the human health and the environment. The purpose of this article is to review our knowledge about risk perception with respect to technologies, in particular emerging technologies, and to suggest possible strategies to use this knowledge for improving our risk management practice. Technological risk perception is defined in this article as the processing of physical signals and/or information about a potentially harmful impact of using technology and the formation of a judgment about seriousness, likelihood, and acceptability of the respective technology. Based on the review of psychological, social, and cultural factors that shape individual and social risk perceptions, we have attempted to develop a structured framework that provides an integrative and systematic perspective on technological risk perception and that may assist risk management and regulation in taking perceptions into account.     

Risk perception of mobile communication: a mental models approach

Some lay people confronted with a new base station project fear serious health consequences from the high‐frequency radiation, while experts consider exposure under the current international standards as unproblematic. These conflictive estimations may be attributed to the different mental models of lay people and experts. Less is known about lay people’s knowledge in regard to mobile communication and their intuitive understanding of the associated health risks. An adaptation of the ‘Mental Models Approach’ was used to reveal lay people’s beliefs about mobile communication and to learn more about lay people’s information requirements, potential knowledge gaps, and misconceptions. Through the means of open interviews with Swiss experts (N = 16), lay people (N = 16), and base station opponents (N = 15), different mental models were constructed and evaluated. Comparisons between the expert and the lay groups showed several qualitative differences in all identified knowledge domains. Knowledge gaps in regard to changing exposure magnitudes due to the interaction patterns of cell phones and base stations as well as misconceptions about regulation issues and scientific processes were found in both lay groups. In addition, lack of trust in responsible actors and disaffection with base station location processes were mentioned. The reported qualitative insights may be useful for the improvement of further risk communication tools.     

Risk Perception and Demand for Risk Mitigation in Transport: A Comparison of Lay People,Politicians and Experts

This paper aims at examining risk perception, worry and demand for risk mitigation in transport and to compare judgements made by lay people, politicians and experts. The results are based on three questionnaire surveys carried out during autumn and winter 2004. The first study involved a representative sample of the Norwegian population (n = 1716), the second sample a group of Norwegian politicians (n = 146) and the third a group of experts on transport safety (n = 26). Studies carried out previously (Sjöberg, 1998a Sjöberg, L. 1998a. Worry and risk perception. Risk Analysis, 18(1): 85–93.  [Google Scholar], 1999 Sjöberg, L. 1999. Consequences of perceived risk: demand for risk mitigation. Journal of Risk Research, 2(2): 129–149.  [Google Scholar]) have given support to the idea that consequences are more important for demands of risk mitigation than probability assessments. In the present study it is hypothesised that this may be because they are associated with worry and it is also proposed that worry relates more strongly to demands for risk mitigation than evaluation of consequences. The results of SEM‐modelling showed that worry was a stronger and more significant predictor of demands for risk mitigation compared to consequences and worry mediated the effect of consequences. Probability assessment was a totally insignificant predictor. In accordance with previous studies, the results showed that experts demanded less risk reduction than lay people and politicians. The results indicate that this is because they stress the probability more than the other two groups.     

Risk cultures and dominant approaches towards disasters in seven European countries

This paper builds upon the risk culture concept started with Mary Douglas’ and Aaron Wildavsky’s seminal work on risk and culture. Based upon the empirical results of a qualitative sociological study on sociocultural factors affecting risk perception and crisis communication in seven European countries, a theoretical model, illustrating how differences in disasters framing imply diverse approaches to risk and disaster management, is suggested. According to this framework, culturally bounded assumptions and conventions strongly influence how communities make sense of risks and hazards and how these communities consider some ways of dealing with disasters more appropriate than others. The framework suggested in this article distinguishes between risk cultures of a given society, which do not necessarily respond to nation states. In order to explain differences in how cultures deal with risks and disasters, and to define the main features of our typology, three main interrelated dimensions have been selected: disaster framing, trust in authorities and blaming. By analyzing differences and similarities in how people perceive and interpret disasters, as well as to whom the responsibility for risk prevention and crisis management is attributed, in seven European countries, three specific ideal types of risk cultures emerged: state-oriented risk culture, individual-oriented risk culture and fatalistic risk culture. Implications for crisis management and communication in case of a disaster will be addressed for each of these risk cultures.     

次贷危机后的保险业风险管理问题

2007年美国发生的次级贷危机再次将风险与风险管理的问题摆在了全球金融业面前,而以风险为主营业务的保险业更需要系统思考风险管理对于本行业健康运营的内在意义。本文从风险管理行为动机、非系统性风险的分散、系统性风险的控制三个方面分析了保险业影响危机发生及受到危机冲击的原因,进一步明确了今后保险业风险管理的发展方向,并提出通过建立合理目标、完善信息沟通机制和治理结构等为风险管理提供有效内部支持。     

Risk perceptions and risk attitudes among Chinese consumers: the toxic capsule crisis

The toxic capsule crisis (TCC) shocked China in 2012, and seriously harmed consumer confidence. Based on a firsthand survey in 12 provinces with 850 observations, this paper examines Chinese consumers’ risk perceptions and risk attitudes about drugs after the TCC. The empirical results suggest that Chinese consumers’ risk perceptions (attributed likelihood of a drug safety accident occurrence) and risk attitudes (measured as level of concern about drug labeling) are weakly negatively correlated, but that risk perceptions are positively correlated with consumer concern about drug safety problems in general. Risk perception was higher among male consumers and those from rural areas, reporting a religious faith, of higher education, and with a family member who has experienced problems caused by drug safety problems. Those reporting a higher level of concern about drug safety issues, with a higher level of understanding of TCC, who reported less frequent physical examinations, and who searched for information after the TCC also had a higher level of risk perception. Being or having a family member who engaged in the health industry and being more satisfied with the government response to the TCC decreased risk perception. Regarding risk attitude, older consumers, those with a higher level of education and with a self-reported religious faith, and those less prepared including those who did not purchase health insurance, do not have health exams as frequently, and who do not take measures of protection and isolation when ill are more concerned about drug labeling information.     

Risk management under extreme events

This article presents two applications of extreme value theory (EVT) to financial markets: computation of value at risk (VaR) and cross-section dependence of extreme returns (i.e., tail dependence). We use a sample comprised of the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Our main findings are the following. First, on average, EVT gives the most accurate estimate of VaR. Second, tail dependence of paired returns decreases substantially when both heteroscedasticity and serial correlation are filtered out by a multivariate GARCH model. Both findings are in agreement with previous research in this area for other financial markets.     

企业风险管理中的风险沟通机制研究

ERM是当今企业风险管理的核心标准,风险沟通是风险管理的重要方法,但企业风险沟通的研究尚不完备。本文将社会公共领域的风险沟通理论与COSO框架下的企业风险管理相结合,提出了一个风险沟通的理论假说,以全面风险感知、相互信任、伙伴关系和双向沟通模式作为该假说的四大支柱,以全面综合的方法,从企业内部(纵向)和企业外部(横向)两个维度构建了企业风险沟通体系,期望能够为企业层面的风险沟通发挥积极的作用。     

德意志银行风险管理的借鉴与启示

该文总结学习了德意志银行的全球风险管理框架、稳健的发展战略、国家风险管理以及科学的银行风险管理技术;认为我国商业银行应尽快构建完整独立的全面风险管理框架,完善商业银行全面风险的管理模式。     

Risk management; a behavioural perspective

The risk contributor is usually regarded as responsible for risk mitigation and accident compensation, especially when the risk is due to the operation of a commercial company. The culpability of risk has resulted in several approaches to safety management. Risk management based on quantitative risk analysis (QRA) emerged in the defence and nuclear industry during and after Second World War and is by now introduced in almost every industry with high-risk potential. During this period, risk analysis and management as a profession has evolved considerably. Technical failures and operator errors used to be considered as the prime causes of accidents in the early days of risk analysis. Based on investigations of major accidents in the latter half of the last century, poor safety culture and mismanagement were introduced as possible additional causes of major accidents. Human error in decision-making is, however, rarely quantified and thus not included in QRA. Knowledge from the experimental analysis of behaviour is absent in practical or operational risk management. This paper advocates an approach to risk management where the decision part of the chain of events is explicitly included. The behavioural perspective introduced implies that the application of experimentally based behaviour science and QRA both should be pursued, mainly because QRA is a strong, and probably the best, defence against decision errors. In an operational situation, management must do trade-offs between objectives where safety is but one of several considerations. When the risk is not quantified, safety loses out to other more easily quantified objectives of a company. The fatal decision error that led to the Challenger accident is used as an example.     

Risk management of Chinese food companies; a management perspective

This study investigated the current situation of food risk management (FRM) in Chinese companies and the factors that influence the effectiveness of risk management measures. FRM is considered from the perspective of food company managers in 161 food companies surveyed in the Provinces of Henan and Hubei, Central China. Results suggest that the current FRM situation in China is poor, and the most important factor influencing the effectiveness of FRM measures is the financial resource allocated to FRM. Other affecting factors include the level of corporate social responsibility (CSR) engagement of the company and the company size (measured by the number of employees). The better the CSR, the better the FRM; the larger the company, the less effective the FRM measures are. The study provides some suggestions for policy-making and further research.