The role of expertise in risk communication: laypeople's and expert's perception of the millennium bug risk in The Netherlands

This paper focuses on the discussion of the role of expertise in risk communication. It describes empirical data on the risks posed by the Millennium bug in 1999 in the Netherlands. The study systematically examined the risk perception of both general public and computer experts with respect to the Millennium bug, assessing a potential discrepancy between the layman's and the expert's judgement, as has been observed in other risk areas. Two surveys were fielded, the first aimed at a random sample of the Dutch population ( n = 253), the second at a sample of computer experts ( n = 91). Results indicated that respondents did not perceive the Millennium bug to be a major threat. However, laypeople worried more, did see the issue as more personally risky, and did think the level of public awareness was higher than experts did. Computer experts felt more capable of taking mitigating actions than laypeople, and were more convinced that these actions were adequate. The implications of these findings for the role of expertise in risk communication are discussed.     

Public perception of scientific uncertainty in relation to food hazards

The research reported here aims to understand how people react to statements expressing risk uncertainty information in the context of a commonly experienced potential hazard, food related risks. Public perception of seriousness of risk for themselves, and for other people was examined for different types of uncertainty, for each of five different food hazards. The results indicated that participants responded to the different types of uncertainty in a uniform way, suggesting that perception of risk associated with uncertainty is not affected by the 'type' of uncertainty. The results further indicated that the seriousness of risk, in the presence of statements of uncertainty, was perceived to be greater for pesticides and genetic modification compared to BSE, high fat diets and Salmonella . It was argued that this could be due to the perceptions of low personal control, and high societal responsibility to protect people and societal control over exposure to the potential risks of pesticides and genetic modification. Under circumstances where people feel they have little personal control over their exposure to a particular hazard, and those social institutions that are perceived to be in control of protecting the public indicate that there is uncertainty associated with risk estimates, the hazard may appear to be 'out of control', which is associated with a perception of serious risk.     

The Private Finance Initiative: risk, uncertainty and the state

This paper analyses the UK's Private Finance Initiative (PFI) at a conceptual level by focusing on the management of risk, which is central to the justification for the policy and its application across the public services, and uncertainty, which underlies the role of the state. The paper argues that the rhetorical support for PFI rests on a conflation of risk and uncertainty and that PFI leads to contractual arrangements that are inappropriate for the provision of public services over the medium term.     

Communication and information in France's underground laboratory siting process: clarity of procedure,ambivalence of effects

France is engaged in an innovative research programme for the management of high level radioactive wastes. The programme is framed by a national law (Waste Act of 30 December 1991) that seeks to guarantee 'permanent democratic control' of an open process. At least two underground laboratories are required by this Act in order to test the feasibility of a permanent deep repository. This study, performed in 1996–97, centres on the candidate evaluation phase of laboratory site search. Public information and communication practices by the national radioactive waste management agency, Andra, are examined. Agency information efforts appear to fit well with a strategy of insertion into the local context, including methods to rally potential allies inlocal officials. The study also examines the activities of local information commissions (LICs) created by law on each of three candidate sites, and reviews arguments by opponents to the RhÔne Valley site proposal. The LICs are judged highly institutionalized, thereby missing an opportunity to foster a true public forum and solution-seeking debate. Opponents' discourse is seen to centre on the danger of regional stigmatization, with concern for mid-term economic losses. The communication process overall is characterized by institutional attempts to channel and contain controversy. Counter plays by other stakeholders illustrate the broad spectrum of risk definitions associated today with radioactive waste.     

Individual financial risk tolerance and the global financial crisis

We investigate individual investors’ tolerance towards financial risk by focusing on changes associated with the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009. Financial risk tolerance (FRT) is analysed longitudinally controlling for demographic, socio‐economic and regional variations. In absolute terms, the change in FRT is small and contrasts with a popular view that risk tolerance is an elastic psychological state overly influenced by the pervading market conditions. Even in the presence of significant financial events, FRT tends to be a reasonably stable attribute in the shorter term but possibly influenced and reshaped by events more gradually over time.     

The joint influence of financial risk perception and risk tolerance on individual investment decision‐making

The increasing complexity of the investment environment has accelerated the need for better quality financial advice services. Central to quality advice is advisers’ accurate assessment of their clients’ risk characteristics. Typically a client's risk characteristic is assessed by measuring the client's risk tolerance but not risk perception. To assess whether this practice fails to fully capture the client's risk profile, we explore both risk tolerance and risk perception in the investment decision‐making context. Using Australian online survey data of financial adviser clients (n = 364), our results reveal that risk tolerance influences risky‐asset allocation directly and indirectly through risk perception. These results thus clarify the joint role of both risk constructs in the investment making decision and highlight the importance of assessing both in the provision of client financial advice services. Importantly, our results validate a new comprehensive risk perception measure applicable in the financial advice context.     

以公共风险的结构和强度重塑财政政策体系

随着我国社会、经济发展形态和发展目标的变化,财政政策体系目标和运行逻辑也需要超越建立在确定性思维基础上的凯恩斯主义分析框架,财政政策供给要根据风险权衡原理,视公共风险的结构和强度进行相机调整.在当前复杂的国内外发展环境下,财政须充分发挥作为国家治理的基础与重要支柱的作用,以应对各种不确定性作为财政政策体系运行的目标,与金融环境协调配合,在保证财政自身风险可控前提下,通过灵活多样的政策工具为经济社会注入确定性,降低风险、引导预期,使经济社会系统整体的公共风险最小化.     

Effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the exposure of investment-style factor returns to real activity

How do uncertainty and risk aversion affect the behavior of investment-style factors? We argue that a significant channel through which both uncertainty and risk aversion impact aggregate risk factors is the exposure of factor returns to real activity. We analyze this issue using mixed data sampling decomposition of the sensitivity of factor returns to real activity into high- and low-frequency components. We find a positive and significant relation between uncertainty and risk aversion for the low-frequency component of the sensitivity of factor returns to economic activity. More importantly, risk aversion significantly amplifies the effects of uncertainty on real activity exposure. The quality-based factor is an important exception to these findings.     

Adolescents' perceptions of the costs and benefits of food additives and their presence in different foods

A questionnaire concerning the use of additives in foods was completed by 572 high school students aged 12-15 years. Participants recorded how often they ate each of 16 common foods, and rated the relative levels of colourings, flavourings, preservatives and traces of pesticides that each of these foods contained. They also rated the relative importance of eight reasons (e.g. taste, health) in their own food choices, and provided comparative evaluations of the concepts 'food with additives' and 'food without additives' in terms of these same eight attributes. Participants discriminated between the 16 foods in terms of the chemicals they believed they contained, but these estimates were unaffected by age or sex. When these estimates were weighted by participants' own reports of consumption, girls scored lower than boys on a measure of the assumed additive content of their own diet. Own additive consumption was significantly associated with ratings of reasons for food choice and comparisons of food with/without additives. However, the form of this association did not support standard expectancy-value formulations of attitude-behaviour relationships. Food with additives was seen overall as preferable in terms of ease of preparation and duration of freshness, but more problematic in terms of health and safety.     

Overconfidence,risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals

This paper highlights the role played by overconfidence and risk perception in the risk-taking behaviors of finance professionals. We interviewed 64 high-level professionals and demonstrate that they are overconfident in both the general and the financial domains. Using a recent measure proposed by Glaser et al. (2013), we indicate that respondents are overconfident in forecasting future stock prices. We demonstrate that the risk they are willing to assume is positively influenced by overconfidence and optimism and negatively influenced by risk perception. However, the stock return volatility anticipated is, in most cases, an insignificant determinant of the risk that professionals are ready to assume.     

Sociology,risk and the environment: a material-semiotic approach

Abstract

Sociology has made significant contributions to the conceptualisation of risk and critique of technical risk analysis. It has, however, unintentionally reinforced the division of labour between the natural/technical and social sciences in risk analysis. This paper argues that the problem with conceptualisations of risk is not a misplaced emphasis on calculation. Rather, it is that we have not adequately dealt with ontological distinctions implicit in both sociological and technical work on risk between material or objective risks and our socially mediated understandings and interpretations of those risks. While acknowledging that risks are simultaneously social and technical, sociologists have not, in practice, provided the conceptual and methodological tools to apprehend risk in a less dualistic manner. This limits our ability both to analyse actors and processes outside the social domain and to explore the recursive relationships between risk calculus, social action and the material outcomes of risk. In response, this paper develops a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk and provides an assessment of its relevance to more sociologically informed risk governance. It introduces the ideas of co-constitution, emergent entities and enactment as instruments for reconciling the material and social worlds in a sociological study of risk. It further illustrates the application of a material-semiotic approach using these concepts in the nuclear industry. In deconstructing social–material dualisms in the sociology of risk, this paper argues that a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk enables both technical and social perspectives on risk not only to coexist but to collaborate, widening the scope for interdisciplinary research.     

COVID-19, a blessing in disguise for the Tech sector: Evidence from stock price crash risk

In this paper we document that although COVID-19 has brought uncertainties to the overall economy, the Technology (tech) sector is the systematic beneficiary of the pandemic. Using a quasi-natural setup, we find a significant notion that the Stock Price Crash Risk (SPCR) of firms within the Tech sector decreases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the recent past and firms belonging to other sectors. Our analyses further reveal that firms in the Tech sector with stronger external monitoring and better information environment receive an even greater advantage from the pandemic. Overall, our study suggests that the higher systemic dependency on the Tech sector during the COVID-19 outbreak results in an economic benefit for this sector.     

Enterprise risk management and firm performance: Role of the risk committee

In recent years, there have been increasing efforts in the corporate world to invest in risk management and governance processes. In this paper, we examine the impact of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) on firm performance by examining whether firm performance is strengthened or weakened by the establishment of a board-level risk committee (BLRC), an important governance mechanism that oversees ERM processes. Based on 260 observations from FTSE350 listed firms in the UK during 2012–2015, we find the effectiveness of ERM significantly and positively affects firm performance. We also find strong BLRC governance complements this relationship and increases the firm performance effects of ERM. Our findings suggest the mere formation of a BLRC is not a panacea for ERM oversight; however, existence of a structurally strong BLRC is crucial for effective ERM governance.     

The timing of mergers along the production chain,capital structure,and risk dynamics

I demonstrate that the timing of vertical mergers is generally dependent on industry characteristics. My predictions are consistent with empirically observed patterns of vertical mergers. I show that merger activity during economic upturns tends to be motivated by operating efficiencies, while merger activity during economic downturns tends to occur as a means of keeping production chain operational. Mergers allow firms to capture synergies and improve efficiencies in order to survive economic contractions. The pricing framework implies that a vertical merger decision usually reduces risk during two different economic states.     

The effects of tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty on the appropriateness of accounting performance measures

This article examines how task uncertainty, environmental uncertainty and tolerance for ambiguity (TFA) affect managerial opinions about the appropriateness of accounting performance measures (APM). Based on accounting and psychology literature, this study argues that task uncertainty and environmental uncertainty differ in their direct effects on the appropriateness of APM, and furthermore that the relationship between uncertainty and the appropriateness of APM is moderated by managers' TFA. Hypotheses are developed, and tested with data from a survey study among 250 managers in eleven organizations, using partial least squares (PLS). Overall, the results show that the two types of uncertainty have opposite effects on managers' opinions about the appropriateness of APM, and that these effects are moderated by TFA, which confirms expectations. No direct effect of TFA on the appropriateness of APM was found. Overall, these findings provide an explanation of the inconsistencies in the extant behavioural management accounting literature that has addressed the appropriateness of APM under uncertainty.     

Risk reporting: A study of risk disclosures in the annual reports of UK companies

The concepts of risk and risk management have received considerable attention lately, but this has yet to be reflected in empirical research examining firms’ risk reporting practices. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature and explores risk disclosures within a sample of 79 UK company annual reports using content analysis. A significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and company size. Similarly a significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and level of environmental risk as measured by Innovest EcoValue`21™ Ratings. However, no association is found between the number of risk disclosures and five other measures of risk: gearing ratio, asset cover, quiscore, book to market value of equity and beta factor. The paper also discusses the nature of the risk disclosures made by the sample companies specifically examining their time orientation, whether they are monetarily quantified and if good or bad risk news is disclosed. It was uncommon to find monetary assessments of risk information, but companies did exhibit a willingness to disclose forward-looking risk information. Overall the dominance of statements of general risk management policy and a lack of coherence in the risk narratives implies that a risk information gap exists and consequently stakeholders are unable to adequately assess the risk profile of a company.     

基层商业银行合规风险管理现状、问题及改进对策

本文阐述了我国基层商业银行合规风险管理现状,分析了基层银行合规风险管理建设中存在的问题,结合银行合规风险管理的目标,提出了进一步加强商业银行合规风险管理的若干建议。     

Bailouts,the incentive to manage risk,and financial crises

A firm's termination leads to bankruptcy costs. This may create an incentive for outside stakeholders or the firm's debtholders to bail out the firm as bankruptcy looms. Because of this implicit guarantee, firm shareholders have an incentive to increase volatility in order to exploit the implicit protection. However, if they increase volatility too much they may induce the guarantee-extending parties to “walk away.” I derive the optimal risk management rule in such a framework and show that it allows high volatility choices, while net worth is high. However, risk limits tighten abruptly when the firm's net worth declines below an endogenously determined threshold. Hence, the model reproduces the qualitative features of existing risk management rules, and can account for phenomena such as “flight to quality.”     

公共服务外包中委托代理关系链〖〗面临的风险及其防范

公共产品和服务供给领域引入市场机制,实行公共服务的安排与直接生产的分离,成为当前世界各国包括我国政府改革的重要方式之一。但公共服务外包委托代理过程中存在着信息不对称、利益不对称、契约不完全、委托代理链长、公众委托人身份不明确和政府双重身份等缺陷,导致公共服务外包过程中的三个参与主体:政府、公众和企业(或第三部门)各自都存在一系列委托代理风险。对此,可以通过完善相关的代理人选择机制、激励机制和监督约束机制来来解决公共服务外包中的风险问题。     

The influence of linear and cyclical temporal representations on risk perception of nuclear waste: an experimental study

Time is an important aspect of the issue of nuclear waste, both from a technical and from a perceptional perspective. Previous studies have investigated the relationship between time and risk perception of nuclear waste, applying the discounting paradigm and therefore limiting time to one very narrow aspect: its duration. However, time is a multifaceted concept and encompasses more than a linear property. The aim of our study is to test the influence of a different aspect of time, namely temporal representations (linear or cyclical) on risk perception of nuclear waste. In an experimental study we demonstrate that both linear and cyclical representations have a reducing effect on risk perception compared to the control condition, where no specific time representation was activated. Examining group differences, we also demonstrate that temporal representations have a differing influence depending on whether participants have a stable belief about nuclear waste or whether they belong to an ambivalent group that does not yet hold a stable belief. Furthermore, we replicate the well-documented gender gap in risk perception. Our results bear potentially interesting implications for risk communication by demonstrating a causal relationship between the graphic representation of time and risk perception of nuclear waste.