Light me up: power and expertise in risk communication and policy-making in the e-cigarette health debates

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study.     

What role for social scientists in risk expertise?

When it comes to risks – health and environmental risks, like those linked to the use of nanotechnologies, pesticides, etc. – three main groups of actors are easily identified, brought together through boundary organisations such as environmental and sanitary risk agencies: the natural and technical scientists, who provide their expertise to assess risks (especially toxicologists, epidemiologists and microbiologists); the policy makers, who take decisions regarding risk management and risk regulation; the lay public, who are more and more involved in participatory frameworks. Sometimes three other groups of actors are added: the ‘economists’ who can for instance conduct cost–benefit assessments or multi-criteria analyses (especially ecological economists, public economists, political economists and social economists); the ‘philosophers’/‘ethicists’ who can use ethics to highlight moral choices and responsibilities in face of risks; and the ‘jurists’/‘legal experts’ who can justify authorisation or interdiction according to law. Inversely, there is a group of actors which is not clearly identified, that of social scientists, even though a considerable quantity of social science knowledge on risk has been produced. Why is there such a discrepancy? This article, based on a critical review of the literature, aims to make sense of the fuzziness surrounding the involvement of social scientists when it comes to risk expertise. The article shows that one reason for this puzzling situation is to be found in the gap between what social scientists often want to do when they are called in as risk experts and what natural scientists and public policy makers actually expect from them.     

Communicating with the public during health crises: experts' experiences and opinions

Governments and health agencies worldwide are planning for a potential influenza pandemic. Their plans acknowledge the importance of public communication during an outbreak and include related guidelines and strategies. Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication is a new addition to the literature, drawing on health promotion communication, crisis communication and environmental/technological risk communication. This paper adds to the literature, exploring the notion of ‘effective communication during health crises' by reporting on interviews with 22 public health officials, scientists and communications professionals responsible for communicating with the public. When analyzed in the context of the risk communication literature, the interviews reveal several considerations for health risk communicators. First, given the important role that mass media will play in an EID outbreak, there is an urgent need for public health to build partnerships with journalists based on an understanding of the two parties' unique societal roles. Second, seemingly practical communications considerations – such as how certain to be about information before sharing it and whether to engage in two‐way communication with the public – have ethical dimensions that deserve attention. Third, there are unique challenges associated with communicating uncertainty, which would benefit from an exploration of the role of trust in health crisis communication.     

From risk to the government of uncertainty: the case of mobile telephony

Confronted with complex and wicked issues, public authorities turn to science and expertise to provide answers that will help reduce the level of uncertainty that characterizes these issues. Yet, the paper argues that more often than not, it is the application of a risk framework to a given issue that fosters uncertainty, not the other way round. Hence, the more authorities and experts attempt to apply a risk approach to an issue, the more they encourage the production of uncertainty. Taking mobile telephony as a case in point, the paper then goes on to show that to reduce uncertainties, authorities in some countries have recently experimented with new forms of knowledge in the process of expertise; paradoxically, this may raise in a first moment the general level of uncertainty, but it may also provide in the longer term more robust knowledge. The larger aim of the paper is to expand conceptions of uncertainty commonly used in risk governance.     

GUEST EDITORIAL: Cutting corners in chemical risk limitation

The first genetically modified crops and foods to be approved for commercial use in the European Union have prompted intense controversy. Food retailers and processors have been forced to take up the concerns voiced by their customers. New networks of groups have formed to oppose the technology. In response to these pressures, regulators who approved the products have had to reconsider questions they had previously dismissed or officially resolved. Governments have devised more precautionary measures of various kinds. For example, they have increased the burden of evidence for demonstrating safety, have broadened the practical definition of the ‘adverse effects’ which must be prevented, and have devised marketstage precautions for such effects. These extra measures manage the risk debate as well as any risks. In such ways, the technocratic model of European harmonization is being challenged and superseded. This may allow differences in national practices to be viewed as valuable expert resources for a different harmonization model, rather than as deviations from a universal rational norm. Regulatory conflicts offer precautionary opportunities, which could lead to more flexible and democratic procedures. Theoretical perspectives – on risk, uncertainty, precaution, European integration, expertise and the internal market – help illuminate these possibilities.     

Pricing factors in multiple-term structures from interbank rates

This article analyzes the reward for the risk embedded in interbank derivatives, seeking to characterize the size and economic sources of the components of this risk premium in interbank spread quotes. The basis swap (BS) spreads – floating-to-floating interest rate swaps – are employed as a vehicle used by investors to express their views concerning the risk of borrowing on the interbank market. Our results show that the size of the risk premium ranges from 20 to 60 basis points, depending on the tenor, during periods of financial distress. Moreover, the evolution of this risk premium increases dramatically after August 2007, primarily due to the evolution of credit variables such as sovereign and financial sector risks. Finally, we also document important sources of commonality between risk premiums at different tenors. An analysis of the determinants of risk premia reveal that investors’ compensation relates to financial sector credit and liquidity uncertainty, and risk aversion.     

The Effects of Uncertainty on the Demand for Health Insurance

This article analyzes the effects of uncertainty and increases in risk aversion on the demand for health insurance using a theoretical model that highlights the interdependence between insurance and health care demand decisions. Two types of uncertainty faced by the individuals are examined. The first one is the uncertainty in the consumer's pretreatment health and the second is the uncertainty surrounding the productivity of health care. Comparative statics results are reported indicating the impact on the demand for insurance of shifts in the distributions of pretreatment health and productivity of health care in the form of first‐order stochastic dominance, Rothschild–Stiglitz mean‐preserving spreads, and second‐order stochastic dominance. The demand for insurance increases in response to a Rothschild–Stiglitz increase in risk in the distribution of the pretreatment health provided that the health production function is in a special class and the price elasticity of health care is nondecreasing in the pretreatment health. Provided also that the demand for health care is own‐price inelastic, the same conclusion is obtained when the uncertainty is about the productivity of health care.     

The politics of urban climate risks: theoretical and empirical lessons from Ulrich Beck’s methodological cosmopolitanism

Abstract

In the face of global climate risks, world cities increasingly figure in academic and policy discourse as strategic spaces for harnessing the expertise and governance capacity needed to steer societies toward more sustainable and low-carbon futures. This article reviews existing approaches to the study of urban climate politics, by way of asking what contribution Ulrich Beck’s theory of world risk society – and principles of methodological cosmopolitanism – make to such epochal conversations? Three main analytical frameworks stand out: low-carbon transition literature highlight generic processes of socio-technical ‘greening’ of urban infrastructures; urban policy mobility work documents growing intercity networks around climate and sustainability; and actor–network theory-informed takes on urban controversies engage the localized politics of specific city-based ‘riskscapes’. While each framework makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices, the article ends by pointing to the need for reworking methods of (multi-sited) ethnography and comparison as central parts of realizing Ulrich Beck’s cosmopolitan sociology in the domain of urban climate risks.     

Travelling risks: How did nanotechnology become a risk in India and South Africa?

India and South Africa have invested in nanotechnology since the early 2000s and have identified risks to human health and the environment as an important issue for governance. This is exemplary for a wider trend in which ‘developing countries’ play an increasingly prominent role in the development, production and use of emerging technologies. This validates the claim of the world risk society thesis that countries around the world are now confronted with the risks of emerging technologies. Little is known, however, about the way developing countries deal with the potential risks of emerging technologies. Starting from the observation that the risk colonization of nanotechnology in developing countries cannot be taken for granted, this article draws upon the relational theory of risk in order to investigate how nanotechnology became understood as an object of risk in South Africa and India. The article shows that nanotechnology was constituted as an object of risk in rather different ways in India and South Africa, demonstrating that the spread of risk discourses – and the emergence of a world risk society – cannot be understood without attending to the local context. The article shows that way risk is understood and dealt with changes as risk discourses travel around the world, giving many different faces to the world risk society.     

Firm-level political risk and debt choice

We examine the effect of firm-level political risk on debt choices and find: (i) firms with higher political risk display a preference for private debt over public debt; (ii) the magnitude of this preference varies with the aggregate policy uncertainty; (iii) politically risky firms indeed receive less favorable terms in the bond market. To explain such findings, we show that private lenders have several advantages in serving politically risky borrowers. First, to the extent that lenders cannot perfectly foresee the adoption of new government policies, private lenders' expertise in implementing the reorganization process is important to limit their potential loss. Second, politically risky borrowers must undertake significant operation adjustments facing rising policy uncertainty. Private lenders can gather accurate information and closely monitor these adjustments. Last, as the severity of political risk varies with aggregate policy uncertainty, there exists an implicit contract between a borrower and its relationship bank, whereby a borrower accepts less favorable terms during normal times in exchange for the bank's support during difficult times. Taken together, this study advances our understanding of how cross-sectionally heterogeneous political risk influences corporate debt choice.     

The erosion of jurisdiction: Auditing in a market value accounting regime

In recent years, accounting standards worldwide have been modified so as to render them more heavily based on fair or market value. This paper explores the behavioural and jurisdictional consequences of the normative drift towards fair value. Being informed by Giddens’ work on late modernity, trust and expertise and drawing on a series of interviews with Canadian professional accountants, we argue that fair value accounting makes it increasingly harder for auditors to feel and actually be in control of their own expertise. That is, auditors’ system of expertise is now considerably more reliant on a “secondary” – but perhaps in actual fact primary – layer of expertise revolving around market valuation techniques and principles. In so doing, the auditors’ job is increasingly transformed as the involvement of valuators now represents a recurrent and pervasive phenomenon in audit processes. The auditor's role nowadays resembles that of an arbiter having to mediate discrepancies over subjective values – a number of which being produced by highly specialized valuators. Important implications ensue from a system of expertise in which the experts’ degree of control over their own jurisdictional work is increasingly eroding.     

Risk Communication and the Social Amplification of Public Sector Risk

Concerns exist within the public sector about the ability of organizations to communicate issues of risk. These concerns include: the nature and magnitude of risks; the vulnerability of those who may bear the consequences associated with an event; and the sense of helplessness felt by victim groups. Apart from the public sector's role as risk generator, regulator and communicator, it also has some responsibility for dealing with the consequences of a major catastrophic event through agencies such as health care and the emergency services. Under certain conditions, it is apparent that concerns over risk issues can escalate beyond a level expected by those charged with the management of that risk. Within this framework, the effective communication of risk and uncertainty is an integral, but often neglected, part of public sector activities. This article explores the process of risk communication and risk amplification and suggests a number of perspectives on policy development.     

Optimal regulation,executive compensation and risk taking by financial institutions

We present an equilibrium model of financial institutions to examine the optimal regulation of risk taking. Shareholders provide incentives for management to increase risk to excessive levels. Regulators use caps on asset risk and compensation to achieve the socially optimal risk level. This level trades off costs of risk shifting and costs of bank default. Without regulation, equilibrium risk lies above the optimal level. If information and enforcement are perfect, either policy tool (caps on asset risk or compensation) achieves the optimal risk level. If there are frictions – if enforcement is limited, if there is uncertainty about the incentives facing management and costs of risk shifting, or if regulation cannot be bank specific – welfare can be improved by employing both policy tools.     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and risk aversion: evidence from the U.S. and European equity markets

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of unconventional monetary policy announcements on risk aversion – as proxied by the variance premium – by using panel data analysis. The objective of this empirical analysis is to investigate the risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the major European and U.S. equity markets by studying the impact that the announcements of an unconventional monetary policy has on market uncertainty and risk perception. By measuring the difference between risk-neutral and realised and conditional variance, we estimate the variance premium, which captures the impact that pricing concerns have on the prices of options. The empirical analysis indicates that easing monetary policies can significantly reduce the variance premium. In addition, we examine the risk premium structure across markets to determine the potential differences in investors’ risk aversion.     

Uncertainty and hyper-precision in fisheries science and policy

This essay discusses various uncertainty aspects of advice on fish quotas in the North-East Atlantic provided by ICES (the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea). A key conclusion is that while the epistemic uncertainties may be considerable, the advisory framework does not account for these, but sets considerable limitations on what issues, expertise and knowledge is relevant for quota advice. The uncertainty is treated as if it were quantifiable, i.e. a technical problem without epistemic uncertainty. However, since estimates and predictions of stock states are presented with hyper-precision, not even the technical uncertainty is reflected adequately. The inadequate handling of uncertainty is value-laden as the risks and the risk bearers change with different choices of theoretical models. Yet, the ICES framework for quota advice advocates a strict division between science and policy. ICES's claim of producing unbiased advice and the managers’ demand for scientific advice without interference with policy can be regarded as attempts to defend a clear-cut division. Further, the hyper-precision can be seen as a symptom of a sub-optimal management system and can be understood as an attempt to deny that the situation is one of post-normal science.     

Systemic risk,economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference

The paper investigates causal relationships between systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies, conditional on global volatility proxied by the VIX index, in a sample of 15 advanced and major emerging market economies during January 2008-June 2018. We test for Granger causality in time and frequency domains as well as dissect multivariate causal linkages in the dynamic complex system framework by applying a novel technique – convergent cross mapping (Sugihara et al., 2012). Based on strictly coincident results from all the three approaches, we find that systemic risk causes firm exit in Spain, while in the UK and the Netherlands bankruptcies are triggered by economic policy uncertainty. In South Korea and the USA, the VIX index causes the firm shutdown. For the rest of the countries, the causality inference provides less robust evidence. We argue that the magnitude of deleveraging by banks with respect to the private nonfinancial sector, proxied by the volatility of credit-to-GDP gaps, shapes the presence or absence of causal impact by systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty or the VIX index on bankruptcies.     

A risk perspective supporting organizational efforts for achieving high reliability

Many industries and organizations are actively searching for approaches that can help them enhance the reliability of their operations and avoid mishaps. The concept of high reliability organizations (HROs) has been given considerable attention in this regard. HRO theorists have emphasized the process of mindfulness as a characteristic that allows for better interaction with risk and uncertainty, in order to minimize the potential for failures. From a risk management perspective however, it is not straightforward how to best proceed to obtain a mindful infrastructure which enables such capabilities. Various perspectives on risk and uncertainties exist, which call for different approaches and solutions. A key question studied in this paper is to what extent are traditional risk perspectives based on probability and historical data limited in their ability to support an HRO mindset for managing risk. The main purpose of the paper is to draw attention to an alternative risk perspective that replaces probability with uncertainty in the definition of risk, and to show how such a risk perspective can better support the implementation of HRO theory than the more traditional perspectives. We discuss the implications of such a shift in thinking – from focusing on probabilities to the broader domain of uncertainties regarding risk – for organizations that are seeking to improve their risk management capabilities and enhance the reliability of their operations.     

A Gentle Introduction to Risk Aversion and Utility Theory

While the topics of risk aversion and utility theory have been discussed extensively in the academic literature on risk and insurance, this literature does not include a pedagogical discussion that is widely accessible for classroom use. This article provides a practical introduction to risk aversion that is designed for readers with little prerequisite course work in economics or statistics. We describe a simple model of insurance demand that can be applied to the property, liability, life, and health insurance markets. We also demonstrate how risk aversion affects a variety of real-life insurance decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, including how much the market will bear to pay for insurance administrative expenses and how demand varies for different types of auto insurance coverage. Exercises and practice problems are provided so that readers can test their mastery of the concepts presented in the article. An instructional note on using this article to teach risk aversion in the classroom is also provided.     

Mobile phone masts,social rationalities and risk: negotiating lay perspectives on technological hazards

This paper examines the responses of 37 participants in six focus groups to media representations of the health risks associated with mobile phone masts (‘base stations’) in the light of theoretical debates concerning non‐expert understandings of risks (variously characterised as ‘lay rationality’, lay epidemiology’, popular epidemiology’, ‘public knowledges’, ‘social rationality’ and ‘intuitive risk judgements’). In particular, the study discusses the extent to which two particular manifestations of such understandings – non‐mediated contextual and personal knowledges (‘multiple information sources’), and risk comparisons made between mobile phone masts and a variety of other perceived health risks – are prominent in respondents’ discursive constructions of risk. The paper suggests that analyses of risk responses such as these should differentiate clearly between classes of risks, and avoid suggestions that any particular type of risk response can be unproblematically mapped onto other risk scenarios.     

Fiscal Transparency,Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings

Fiscal transparency can provide policymakers with incentives to adopt better policies by enhancing the public debate on the design and sustainability of fiscal policy and establishing accountability for their implementation. Fiscal transparency can also reduce uncertainty about fiscal policy and fiscal outturns by providing more information on the underlying fiscal position and fiscal risks. Both effects suggest that countries should benefit from adopting transparency enhancing policies through better market assessments of their sovereign risk. In this paper, we investigate whether fiscal transparency has an effect on market perceptions of sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign credit ratings, and if so, through which channels. We find that fiscal transparency has a positive and significant effect on ratings – one standard deviation increase in fiscal transparency increases credit ratings by 0.7 and 1 notches (or steps in the credit rating scale) in advanced and developing economies, respectively – but its effect works through different channels in advanced and developing economies. In advanced economies, fiscal transparency is associated with better fiscal outcomes, leading indirectly to higher credit ratings. In developing economies, the direct uncertainty‐reducing effect of fiscal transparency seems to be more important. Indeed, the effect of fiscal transparency on fiscal performance is found to increase with the level of institutional development.