From objective to constituted risk: an alternative approach to safety in strategic technological innovation in the European Union

Safety is a legitimate means of limiting technological innovation in our societies. However, the potential socio-economic impact of curtailing techno-industrial progress on the grounds of safety means that risk governance policies tend to restrict the range of legitimate approaches to safety on the principle that it can only be discussed in the frame of an allegedly objective scientific representation of risk. In European risk governance, socio-economic factors such as the underlying innovation rationales and goals are not openly considered to be related to the constitution of safety, but tend largely to be treated as factors of subjective reaction towards risk and technology. This paper seeks to overcome that approach by proposing a ‘constitutive’ understanding of how risk and socio-economic factors and dynamics relate, focusing in particular on the ‘safe and responsible’ development of nanotechnology in the European Union (EU). I argue that risk is constituted according to socio-economic considerations, and that the controllability of the environmental and health risks of nanotechnology in the EU is assumed on principle in the very strong institutional commitment to the industrial exploitation of nanotechnology R&D. Using a constitutive approach, we may legitimately conceive a broader set of potential safety scenarios, while at the same time highlighting major obstacles to implementing more critical constitutions of techno-industrial risk in the framework of a highly competitive knowledge-based global economy.     

Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market

Using a large sample of firms with single-name credit default swap (CDS) contracts in 30 countries, we document the evidence that political uncertainty, proxied by national election dummy, is positively related to firm-level credit risk. Specifically, this positive relation is more pronounced for the firms that have no political connection or poor international diversification, and in the countries with higher political uncertainty and lower investor protections. Further, by using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence to support idiosyncratic volatility and debt rollover channels through which political uncertainty affects the credit risk of individual firm.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

This paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk using data from China. We develop a new index to measure Chinese economic policy uncertainty and find that economic policy uncertainty has a remarkable positive effect on stock price crash risk. However, the effect reverses later. The results also indicate that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk is more prominent for state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, this effect is more prominent for firms with higher information asymmetry and firms with greater disagreement among investors, indicating that economic policy uncertainty affects crash risk through two mechanisms: managers’ concealment of bad news and investors’ heterogeneous beliefs.     

Public reception of scientific uncertainty in the endocrine disrupter controversy: the case of male fertility

Scientific controversies are associated with significant uncertainty. Despite this uncertainty, available knowledge must be communicated to the public, who are potentially at risk. There are contradictions in the existing literature about the value of communicating uncertainty associated with science. Some scientists and decision-makers believe that communicating uncertainty to the public will produce panic and confusion, and will discredit science. Others believe that uncertainty must be communicated to increase trust in science. We tested reactions to communication about uncertainty related to the controversial link between exposure to endocrine disrupters and a decline in human male fertility. Our empirical setup used focus groups and qualitative analysis of participants’ perceived uncertainty and their emotions. The results show that laypeople raise more and different uncertainties than those communicated by researchers. Moreover, laypeople did not react to uncertainty ‘globally;’ they had different reactions to the different sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty did not elicit panic in this case study. Rather, uncertainty was reassuring, except when it was associated with an inability to precisely identify and, therefore, control the cause of male reproductive disorders. We discuss the emotions expressed and their relationships with communication about scientific uncertainty (powerlessness, guilt, outrage, etc.). We also note that feelings of confusion increase after uncertainty has been communicated.     

Precautionary advice about mobile phones: public understandings and intended responses

There is a widespread academic and policy debate about public responses to precaution in public health campaigns. This paper explores these issues in relation to the precautionary stance adopted in the UK around the regulation of mobile telecommunications. The aim of the paper is to examine the nature of attitudes to precaution, and the way in which these, along with other relevant variables, relate to the intention to adopt relevant behaviours. The results from an experimental study (n = 173) indicate that people distinguish between two dimensions of precaution: firstly in relation to its value or necessity per se and secondly as anchored to notions of governance. The two variables differentially relate to other variables including trust and uncertainty, and are predictive of intended behaviour change indirectly, through worry about mobile phone risks. Precautionary advice was generally interpreted as causing concern rather than providing reassurance. The results suggest that precaution may be considered a valuable stance but this does not mean that it is seen as good governance or that it will reduce concern. Whilst the discourse of precaution is aimed at reducing concern, it appears that the uptake of relevant behaviours is largely triggered by worry.     

Macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate liquidity: the Indian case

Interest in the uncertainties prevailing at the macroeconomic level has always been well known in economic literature. This article analyses the effect of firm level and macroeconomic uncertainty on the decisions of Indian firms with regard to their optimal cash holdings. Using a dynamic panel data model, the study finds strong support for the hypothesis that Indian firms increase their cash holdings with an increase in either form of uncertainty. Also, results for the sub-samples show that middle-aged and middle-sized firms are most affected by variations in macroeconomic uncertainty.     

Measuring the unmeasurable: an application of uncertainty quantification to Treasury bond portfolios

We extract from the yield curve a new measure of fundamental economic uncertainty, based on McDiarmid’s diameter and related methods for optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ). OUQ seeks analytical bounds on a system’s behaviour, even where aspects of the underlying data-generating process and system response function are not completely known. We use OUQ to stress test a simple fixed-income portfolio, certifying its safety—i.e. that potential losses will be ‘small’ in an appropriate sense. The results give explicit tradeoffs between: scenario count, maximum loss, test horizon, and confidence level. Unfortunately, uncertainty peaks in late 2008, weakening certification assurances just when they are needed most.     

How to deal with dissent among experts. Risk evaluation of EMF in a scientific dialogue

This article describes the results of a scientific discourse which aimed at exploring the reasons for differences in expert health risk assessment of radio frequency electromagnetic fields of mobile telephony.

It starts with describing the structure of the discourse. Then, the reasons for the conflicting risk assessments are discussed. Differences are due to the selection and evaluation of relevant scientific studies by applying different scientific quality standards, to the methods used for generating a research synthesis and an overall risk evaluation. Consensus could be achieved regarding the selection of and the quality requirements for the scientific studies used for risk assessment as well as their significance for risk evaluation. However, dissent remained about the synthesis of scientific evidence into an overall risk evaluation and about the relevance of the precautionary principle for risk evaluation and its implications for the risk assessment framework.

Based on the analysis of these problems, a transparent, consistent and rational procedure for risk assessment is suggested to facilitate a risk characterization which better meets the demands of policy making and the public for an appropriate risk evaluation.     

Systemic risk,economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference

The paper investigates causal relationships between systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies, conditional on global volatility proxied by the VIX index, in a sample of 15 advanced and major emerging market economies during January 2008-June 2018. We test for Granger causality in time and frequency domains as well as dissect multivariate causal linkages in the dynamic complex system framework by applying a novel technique – convergent cross mapping (Sugihara et al., 2012). Based on strictly coincident results from all the three approaches, we find that systemic risk causes firm exit in Spain, while in the UK and the Netherlands bankruptcies are triggered by economic policy uncertainty. In South Korea and the USA, the VIX index causes the firm shutdown. For the rest of the countries, the causality inference provides less robust evidence. We argue that the magnitude of deleveraging by banks with respect to the private nonfinancial sector, proxied by the volatility of credit-to-GDP gaps, shapes the presence or absence of causal impact by systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty or the VIX index on bankruptcies.     

Economic policy uncertainty,corporate investment decisions and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China

We examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock price crash risk via the corporate investment in Chinese listed firms. Results show that higher EPU is associated with lower crash risk. Firms increase financial asset holdings and reduce overinvestment when EPU rises, leading to lower future crash risk. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and firms with lower management incentives tend to reduce overinvestment, whereas non-SOEs tend to increase financial asset holdings. Thus, firms tend to be cautious in their investments when EPU is high, which reduces crash risk. Our study provides new insights into the validity of the Lucas critique in China.     

Complexity,uncertainty and future risks

Roger Kasperson’s paper prompts us to reflect on whether traditional risk communication tools and approaches might be inadequate for many of the tasks now emerging. One can point to the increasingly complex nature of some technological and environmental hazards; the need to scrutinise emerging technologies upstream of significant applications; and fundamental changes to risk identities within society. Perhaps, we now genuinely face a risk society, exemplified by the dysfunction of global financial systems, extreme inequalities and encroaching environmental threats, alongside the unwinding of traditional social identities? Strategic capacity to address many of these fundamental risk challenges is lacking.     

Risk perception of mobile communication: a mental models approach

Some lay people confronted with a new base station project fear serious health consequences from the high‐frequency radiation, while experts consider exposure under the current international standards as unproblematic. These conflictive estimations may be attributed to the different mental models of lay people and experts. Less is known about lay people’s knowledge in regard to mobile communication and their intuitive understanding of the associated health risks. An adaptation of the ‘Mental Models Approach’ was used to reveal lay people’s beliefs about mobile communication and to learn more about lay people’s information requirements, potential knowledge gaps, and misconceptions. Through the means of open interviews with Swiss experts (N = 16), lay people (N = 16), and base station opponents (N = 15), different mental models were constructed and evaluated. Comparisons between the expert and the lay groups showed several qualitative differences in all identified knowledge domains. Knowledge gaps in regard to changing exposure magnitudes due to the interaction patterns of cell phones and base stations as well as misconceptions about regulation issues and scientific processes were found in both lay groups. In addition, lack of trust in responsible actors and disaffection with base station location processes were mentioned. The reported qualitative insights may be useful for the improvement of further risk communication tools.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm-specific crash risk. Based on a large sample of Chinese listed firms over the period from 2000 to 2017, we provide empirical evidence that firms are more likely to experience stock price crashes when EPU increases. Cross-sectionally analysis further reveals that the impact of EPU on stock price crash risk is stronger for firms whose returns are more sensitive to EPU. More specifically, young stocks, small stocks, high volatility stocks, and growth stocks, which have higher valuation uncertainty per se, are more sensitive to EPU and are more affected by EPU in terms of crash risk. We further show that EPU is significantly and positively associated with aggregated stock price crash risk at the market level.     

Fear and anger: antecedents and consequences of emotional responses to mobile communication

Many people fear that exposure to mobile phone base stations leads to severe health effects. In addition to those fears, many citizens are unsatisfied or even angry about prevailing base station site-selection procedures. In the present study, it was investigated how these emotions, i.e. fear and anger, determine risk and benefit perceptions and the acceptance of mobile communication. Using structural equation modeling, we found that benefit perception and the acceptance of mobile phone base stations were primarily determined by anger. Risk perception, in contrast was influenced by both emotions. In addition, controllability and fairness emerged as important cognitive appraisals, or antecedents, of fear and anger, while certainty was not related to these emotions. In sum, our findings highlight that fear and anger have specific influences on risk, benefit, and acceptance of mobile communication. Furthermore, the study provides an in-depth understanding of the antecedents that lead to emotional responses within the context of mobile communication. Implications for risk communication will be derived.     

Individualization revisited: global family developments,uncertainty and risk

Abstract

As part of our special issue appreciating the work of Ulrich Beck, this article introduces and rearticulates his concept of individualization for an audience beyond those engaged with sociological theory. It is argued to be the ‘forgotten half’ of Beck’s approach that is in particular need of both restatement and reaffirmation of its contemporary relevance. It does so by firstly contextualizing and explaining its comparatively limited impact before elaborating the stages of the individualizing process and how his key notion of ‘disembedding without re-embedding’ is distinct from traditional sociological understanding of the individualizing dynamic within modernity. Its relevance and utility is then indicated through surveying developments in family and affective relations in China and America, two of Beck’s ideal types of individualization pattern. Both demonstrate a pattern of radical ‘disembedding’, and a conscious and partial ‘re-embedding’ in the case of the ‘neo-traditional’ American middle-class family. Following this, the article suggests a stronger potential connection between the risk and individualization dimensions of his approach than was drawn out by Beck himself, through focusing upon the uncertainty created by disembedding. The uncertainty that follows from individualization suggests precautionary retreat into security and the construction of risk as a means of embodying and managing uncertainty. Recognition of this social dynamic is potentially more useful in understanding risk than the better-known but very general theory of reflexive modernization that is the other half of Beck’s contribution to risk research.     

Commonplaces and social uncertainty: negotiating public opinion

This article explores commonplaces in focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer an example of uncertainty discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature. My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating risk discourse. In addition, however, I argue that commonplaces are used to mitigate feelings of insecurity caused by uncertainty and to negotiate new codes of moral conduct.     

Stock market uncertainty and economic fundamentals: an entropy-based approach

This study investigates the effects of stock market uncertainty on economic fundamentals, represented by economic activities and systemic risk, in China. To capture the uncertainty in the Chinese stock market precisely, we use the entropy measure through symbolic time-series analysis. The empirical findings reveal strong spillover effects from stock market uncertainty to economic fundamentals. Specifically, an uncertainty shock generates (i) a short-term decline in industrial production, (ii) a rapid drop and rebound in the composite leading indicator, and (iii) an increase in systemic risk. To understand these findings, we suggest and validate the transmission channel through changes in consumption and investment.     

CVP under uncertainty and the manager's utility function

Cost-volume-profit analysis has focused on the firm's short-run output decision assuming that the manager maximizes the firm's objective function rather than his or her own. This study argues that the decision problem facing the manager is to determine not only the level of output, but also the level of investment in risky assets in such a way that the expected utility of the manager's own end-of-period wealth can be maximized when the manager's wealth function is dependent on vested interests both within and outside of the firm, possibly in competition with the firm. Through analytical work, it is demonstrated that a change in fixed costs of the firm affects not only the production decision of a manager, but also his orher decision to invest in risky assets. The direction of this fixed cost effect depends on the particular type of risk aversion displayed by the manager. From the analytical work, five propositions are developed for empirical investigation in the future.The most helpful comments of Professor Cheng-few Lee are greatly acknowledged. We wish to thank anonymous referees who's comments have improved the paper. Furthermore, participants at the seminar at the University of Massachusetts Lowell also provided helpful comments.     

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards.     

Reliability rating and reflective questioning: a case study of extended review on Australia's risk assessment of Bt cotton

The governance of emerging technologies is frequently constructed around risk assessment processes. However, when risk assessment as a decision‐making tool is applied to controversial fields such as genetic modification, stem cell research and nano‐scaled science and technology, inherent uncertainties and conflicting social values arise to challenge the adequacy of traditional approaches. In this paper, I propose a framework through which risk assessments may be exposed to a process of ‘extended review’, incorporating both natural and social science quality criteria and modes of reflection. I call this framework ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’. The framework is developed through a detailed case study review of a particular risk assessment document. The case study risk assessment reviewed in this paper is that performed by an Australian governmental authority on the impact of genetically modified ‘Bt’ cotton on non‐target organisms. Through highlighting errors, misrepresentations, assumptions and embedded value judgements within the risk assessment document, I argue that the framework of ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’ can serve as a useful tool for gauging and improving the quality of risk assessment, especially when used as a decision‐making tool for emerging technologies with high levels of uncertainty and strongly conflicting values.