An integrated approach based-structural modeling for risk prioritization in supply network management

Supply networks are complex and suffer always from various risks. An effective supply chain management requires suitable strategies to mitigate them. In previous literature, there has been a range of research into risk in firms but little in supply networks. This can be explained due to the huge number of risk variables and their direct and indirect interrelations that may suffer all supply chain partners (firms). Therefore, for better risk mitigation, a risk prioritization step is vital. To this end, the purpose of this paper is to propose a new integrated approach based on two structural modeling tools. Firstly, interpretive structural modeling has been used to present a hierarchical model showing the interrelationships between the risk sources. Secondly, MICMAC analysis has been used to quantify and classify the risk variables based on their mutual influence and dependence. The objective is to ascertain the key risk variables and theirs relationships. These prioritized risk variables provide a useful tool to supply network managers to focus on those key variables that are most essential for effective risk management strategies. A real case study in food industry is provided in order to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. The findings may be useful to the practitioners in risk management and may also interest academicians, since the method used here can be applied in other areas of industrial management as well.     

Hybrid performance evaluation of sustainable service and manufacturing supply chain management: An integrated approach of fuzzy dematel and fuzzy inference system

The aim of this paper is to propose a comprehensive framework for simultaneously measuring the performance of sustainable service and manufacturing supply chain management. Application of the proposed approach also results in reduced uncertainty of the performance measurement process caused by qualitative criteria evaluation. The proposed approach consists of two main steps. First, the fuzzy decision‐making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method has been used to determine important criteria by avoiding low influences; and then a Mamdani fuzzy inference system model has been adopted and applied for performance evaluation of sustainable supply chain management (SSCM). This model is employed in order to cope with the vagueness that exists in the SSCM performance investigation due to the vagueness intrinsic in the evaluation of criteria. In the proposed model, human reasoning has been modelled with fuzzy inference rules and has been set in the system, which is an advantage compared with those models in which fuzzy set theory and multicriteria decision‐making models are integrated. The proposed approach has been implemented in the pipe and fitting industry in order to highlight its application in real life. Sensitivity analysis has been carried out to determine the influence of service and manufacturing criteria on SSCM performance. The findings reveal that sustainable manufacturing criteria compared with sustainable service criteria have more effect on the performance of SSCM.     

Pseudo resilient supply chains: concept,traits, and practices

Supply chain vulnerability (SCV) and its counterpart supply risk management are increasingly researched in recent years. SCV is often quantifiable and can be effectively monitored if practices are implemented on a systematic basis. It is essentially more important to extend the research in supply chain risk management so as to address certain traits where the companies perform poor or areas where they overlook their performances. Here, we introduce the concept and property, the so-called pseudo resilience in supply chains where supply chains pretend to perform better in its risk management capabilities, but are essentially vulnerable. Pseudo resilience is an incessant nature of many supply chains to overlook concomitant risks. Typical traits of pseudo resilience were identified in this research and a brief analysis of the disruptions and its effects was done. This research is a maiden effort in the direction of addressing the property of pseudo resilience in supply chains. It is imperative for managers to identify the traits of pseudo resilience in their supply chains so as to avoid the ill effects resulting from it. Further quantitative and qualitative researches are recommended for evincing the property of pseudo resilience in supply chains.     

Supply chain risk: empirical research in the automotive industry

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) has become a popular topic over the past decade. It is not a surprise that the automotive industry has been a motivating arena for research within this field; however, the few existing empirical studies reveal that SCRM practices within this industry are still in their infancy. Because the identification of risks can be viewed as the trigger for SCRM, attempts to develop a risk profile for this industry that could serve as a guide to start the SCRM process are needed. This research identifies the main risks along the automotive supply chain by investigating their manifestation in three supply chains in Brazil and offers an initial risk profile for the Brazilian automotive industry. Although the importance of SCRM has been recognised by all analysed companies, the research findings underline the lack of preparedness regarding either identifying risk or considering risk-mitigation strategies and risk assessment. In this context, this study identifies the main risk in which a supply chain can be exposed, through the analysis of real-life manifested risks along different supply chains, as a way to help the supply chain start a SCRM process.     

Integrating sustainability performance measurement into logistics and supply networks: A multi-methodological approach

This paper seeks to address the way in which economic and environmental performance can be measured simultaneously, taking a multi-methodological approach to the logistics and supply chain management field in order to address sustainability challenges. The multi-methodological approach relies on the merits of different methodologies, provides more flexibility in tackling problems under investigation, and tolerates inaccurate estimation of parameters during the process. An illustrative case study (Westgate Ports) is undertaken in Australia in order to examine the ways in which the multi-methodological approach is applied, and how it assists during the decision making process in the adoption of green practices for freight transport logistics. The case validates the applicability and usefulness of the approach and highlights comparative outputs of costs and carbon emissions in freight transport logistics. Rail transport is identified as giving the opportunity to study the short distance container and freight distribution network, although initially this does not appear to be the most cost-effective option. This study finds that it is better to simultaneously consider performance indicators from different perspectives and to integrate them into one model of system measurement in order for corporations to improve their sustainability performance.     

Beyond the contract: Managing risk in supply chain relations

As a consequence of the development of intensified relations with suppliers, for many firms the supply chain has become a significant source of risk exposure. In this paper we examine firms’ use of control practices to manage risks associated with intensified collaboration with supply chain partners. Specifically, we examine how buyers manage risks associated with interfirm transactions through their choice of supply partner, in terms of perceived goodwill and competence trust, and their use of multiple interrelated supply chain management (SCM) control practices. These control practices include contractual contingency planning, performance target setting, operational reviews, information sharing, supplier support and joint problem solving. We collect survey data from Japanese manufacturing firms about their relations with part suppliers to test hypotheses about the associations between transaction risks, selection of trusted suppliers and use of SCM practices. Our results support that transaction characteristics that are at the basis of transaction risks significantly affect the selection of trusted partners to collaborate with as well as their use of various control practices to manage relationships. We also find that in particular competence trust facilitates the use of control practices to support effective SCM.     

A framework to measure integrated risk

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.     

Executives’ professional ties along the supply chain: The impact on partnership sustainability and firm risk

This paper investigates the effect of management-level professional ties between suppliers and customers on the sustainability of business partnerships. We find that the presence of cross-firm professional ties between directors and senior executives along the supply chain significantly reduces the probability of relationship termination around customers’ industry negative shocks and during financial crises. The results are robust using professional-tie strength as an alternative measure. Exploring contingency effects, we find that, for suppliers who lack R&D, face high competition, are smaller in size, or are less important to customers in terms of sales, such professional ties are more helpful in sustaining such relationships. Furthermore, we find that professional ties also significantly reduce firm risk during periods of market turbulence. Taken together, our results suggest that professional ties along the supply chain can facilitate information flow and build mutual trust, which can lead to healthy long-term relationships and can help firms survive economic and industry downturns.     

Water management accounting and the wine supply chain: Empirical evidence from Australia

Sustainable water management in the supply chain is critical to the long term viability of wine producing organisations. Yet despite its potential importance as a link to convert good intentions of managers into sustainable water use, thus far knowledge concerning how environmental management accounting can assist is largely non-existent. Drawing on contingency theory and new institutional sociology a telephone survey was used to investigate the current use of water-related environmental management accounting information (here termed water management accounting) for assessing the long term implications associated with water management in Australian wine supply chains. Organisational size, regulatory pressure and corporate environmental strategy were found to be consistent drivers of water management accounting use. However, other drivers of supply chain-oriented water management accounting differ depending on whether the information considered is monetary or physical. Existence of a certified environmental management system and involvement of managers with industry associations are points of difference. These findings indicate a two-step incentive process for implementation is likely to be the most effective for promoting the collection and use of physical and monetary information for environmental management in the wine industry.     

A set-valued Markov chain approach to credit default

We propose a novel credit default model that takes into account the impact of macroeconomic factors and intergroup contagion on the defaults of obligors. We use a set-valued Markov chain to model the default process, which includes all defaulted obligors in the group. We obtain analytic characterizations for the default process and derive pricing formulas in explicit forms for synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Furthermore, we use market data to calibrate the model and conduct numerical studies on the tranche spreads of CDOs. We find evidence to support that systematic default risk coupled with default contagion could have the leading component of the total default risk.     

8招化解供应链风险

经济衰退和复苏都会给企业的供应链带来巨大的风险,这里,我们提供8条建议来协助企业更好地管理供应链(客户和供应商)。1可视化风险,做长远打算只有确切了解供应链中的薄弱环节所在,才能很好地控制它。     

基于战略风险管理模式下的养老保险公司风险管理分析

战略风险管理模式是金融企业比较流行的一种全面风险管理模型。本文在分析养老保险公司业务经营及风险管理特殊性的基础上,应用战略风险管理基本思想,提出了当前形势下养老保险公司风险管理的核心问题,并对公司目前面临的风险类别、风险因素以及风险管控措施进行了分析研究。     

Public sector reform implications for performance measurement and risk management practice: insights from Australia

In 2013, the Australian Public Service was subject to a process of governance, accountability and performance reform. The implications of these reforms for micro-level practices are unknown. The authors’ empirical findings show that the reforms developed in three stages, each of which has significant implications for embedding performance measurement and risk management within a broader management control system.     

An application of data envelopment analysis to the evaluation of audit risk: a reinterpretation

This paper, which reinterprets previous work by Bradbury and Rouse (2002 ), addresses the risk quantification issue at an intuitive level. The insights provided by such quantification are discussed. Risk factors are associated with the risk-return concept. This allows measuring whether risks taken on are appropriately rewarded. The paper gives a non-technical exposition of DEA and outlines possible applications to accounting and finance. Using data for a large multinational, it shows how DEA analysis can be combined with internal audit procedures. It explains how the results obtained can be used to improve risk management.     

Robustness and sensitivity analysis of risk measurement procedures

Measuring the risk of a financial portfolio involves two steps: estimating the loss distribution of the portfolio from available observations and computing a ‘risk measure’ that summarizes the risk of the portfolio. We define the notion of ‘risk measurement procedure’, which includes both of these steps, and introduce a rigorous framework for studying the robustness of risk measurement procedures and their sensitivity to changes in the data set. Our results point to a conflict between the subadditivity and robustness of risk measurement procedures and show that the same risk measure may exhibit quite different sensitivities depending on the estimation procedure used. Our results illustrate, in particular, that using recently proposed risk measures such as CVaR/expected shortfall leads to a less robust risk measurement procedure than historical Value-at-Risk. We also propose alternative risk measurement procedures that possess the robustness property.     

Board gender composition,board independence and sustainable supply chain responsibility

The consideration of social and environmental factors in companies’ supply chain is a prevalent research topic because stakeholders are now inquisitive about the social and environmental impacts of companies’ suppliers. Using a sample of S&P 500 firms, we find that board gender composition and board independence are positively associated with sustainable supply chain responsibility (SSCR). We also identify three channels (CEO duality, sustainability committee and sensitive industries) through which board gender composition and board independence affect SSCR, where board gender composition consistently explains SSCR, but the effect of board independence is less pronounced in firms with CEO duality and firms with a sustainability committee. Finally, we explore the reason for the less-pronounced findings for board independence in our subsample analyses and find that, compared with independent female directors who continue to display significant associations with SSCR, independent male directors do not engender SSCR across the three subsample tests.     

发挥资本导向整合银行风险管理体制

近年来,资本管理在商业银行中的地位越来越重要,这是监管部门强调资本约束原则的效果,也是商业银行自身控制风险的重要手段。文章指出,作为商业银行风险管理工作的重要抓手,资本管理的核心是计量能力的提升,对于资本分配应掌握总量控制的原则。中国银行业应以资本管理为导向,逐步完善自身的风险管理体系。     

A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions

A central problem for regulators and risk managers concerns the risk assessment of an aggregate portfolio defined as the sum of d individual dependent risks $X_i$. This problem is mainly a numerical issue once the joint distribution of $\left(X_1\text{,}{X}_2\text{,}\dots \text{,}{X}_d\right)$ is fully specified. Unfortunately, while the marginal distributions of the risks $X_i$ are often known, their interaction (dependence) is usually either unknown or only partially known, implying that any risk assessment of the portfolio is subject to model uncertainty.Previous academic research has focused on the maximum and minimum possible values of a given risk measure of the portfolio when only the marginal distributions are known. This approach leads to wide bounds, as all information on the dependence is ignored. In this paper, we integrate, in a natural way, available information on the multivariate dependence. We make use of the Rearrangement Algorithm (RA) of Embrechts et al. (2013) to provide bounds for the risk measure at hand. We observe that incorporating the information of a well-fitted multivariate model may, or may not, lead to much tighter bounds, a feature that also depends on the risk measure used. In particular, the risk of underestimating the Value-at-Risk at a very high confidence level (as used in Basel II) is typically significant, even if one knows the multivariate distribution almost completely.Our results make it possible to determine which risk measures can benefit from adding dependence information (i.e., leading to narrower bounds when used to assess portfolio risk) and, hence, to identify those situations for which it would be meaningful to develop accurate multivariate models.     

对货币供应，产出缺口在通胀传导中机制的研究

随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。     

Farmers’ motivations,risk perceptions and risk management strategies in a developing economy: Bangladesh experience

Aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management strategies have still received little attention in agricultural research. Therefore, an exploratory study has been undertaken to provide empirical insight into Bangladeshi coastal shrimp farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management responses. Data from our study show that 95% of farmers have no formal training in shrimp aquaculture. Shrimp farmers’ cooperative societies operate in only 13.3% of the studied areas and only 15% of shrimp farmers are involved with these cooperative societies. The results reveal that shrimp diseases, price and availability of quality shrimp seeds, exploitation by intermediaries and uncertainty about the future demand for shrimp in foreign markets are perceived as the most important sources of risk. On the other hand, prevention of disease, timely supply of shrimp seeds, elimination of middlemen from the supply chain and farm management training are considered among the best methods to manage the risks in the shrimp‐farming business. We also observe some disparities in farmers’ perceptions. For instance, farmers mentioned that removal of influence of middlemen from supply chain is essential for the betterment of their business. However, they did not consider market monitoring, direct contract with processors and improved marketing facilities as important risk management strategies, although these factors play a significant role in reducing the influence of intermediaries and private money lenders.