Precautionary saving and partially observed income

I propose an intertemporal precautionary saving model in which the agent's labor income is subject to (possibly correlated) shocks with different degrees of persistence and volatility. However, he only observes his total income, not individual components. I show that partial observability of individual components of income gives rise to additional precautionary saving due to estimation risk, the error associated with estimating individual components of income. This additional precautionary saving is higher, when estimation risk is greater. Compared with a precautionary agent who is otherwise identical, but ignores estimation risk, the rational agent consumes less at the beginning of his life, but consumes more later, because of larger wealth accumulated from savings for estimation risk. The utility cost of ignoring estimation risk is also quantified in closed form.     

How bad can short termism be?—A study of the consequences of high hurdle discount rates and low payback thresholds

Survey evidence suggests that hurdle rates used in DCF analysis are often considerably in excess of any plausible estimate of firms’ cost of capital, and that top level decision makers often impose additional short payback thresholds. This paper focuses on the value loss that can arise under such ‘short termist’ decision criteria. It is shown that using such decision rules can help to protect the firm against the total value loss that can arise from the application of the naïve NPV decision rule, and that, for projects with growth prospects and/or moderate or greater volatility in future operating cash flows, the value loss (relative to ‘optimal decision-making’) which arises when firms impose fixed ‘short termist’ thresholds can be quite small.     

Decision-analytic refinements of the precautionary principle

In public decision making about uncertain technological hazards, the precautionary principle calls for prompt protective action rather than delay of protections until scientific uncertainty is resolved. The precautionary principle has a sound basis in decision theory, particularly in situations where the potential hazards are serious and the costs of protective actions are tolerable. This article suggests that the precautionary principle should be refined to address three complications: (1) situations where the exposures to be reduced or prevented may have beneficial as well as hazardous consequences; (2) situations where the protective action itself will create potential hazards; and (3) situations where targeted research investments, coupled with delay of protective action, are likely to support wiser public decisions than prompt protective action. Each of these complications is shown to be relevant to contemporary policy debates about application of the precautionary principle. The usefulness of the precautionary principle in public decision making will be enhanced if these decision-analytic refinements are adopted in formal definitions of the principle.     

Procedure for the Implementation of the Precautionary Principle in Biosafety Commissions

In order to fulfil their responsibilities under the precautionary principle, biosafety commissions should lay down guidelines concerning the understanding and application of this principle and work towards an operational procedure. With this contribution, we propose a step‐wise procedure that aims to establish the understanding of the precautionary principle within biosafety commissions and to provide a methodological approach for the application of this principle to specific cases in the course of risk assessment. This approach is based on systematically investigating the consensus view within a group of 15 biosafety experts with the help of sets of checklists. For step 1, we propose a checklist of 13 criteria aimed at defining the understanding of the precautionary principle. For step 2, we propose 4 criteria for the decision on whether or not to use the precautionary principle. For step 3, 11 criteria for the use of the precautionary principle are presented. In step 4, additional criteria for specific applications could be included. In step 5, possible recommendations to decision‐making authorities are proposed.     

Five charges against the precautionary principle

We defend the precautionary principle against five common charges, namely that it is ill-defined, absolutist, and a value judgement, increases risk-taking, and marginalizes science. We argue, first, that the precautionary principle is, in principle, no more vague or ill-defined than other decision principles and like them it can be made precise through elaboration and practice. Second, the precautionary principle need not be absolutist in the way that has been claimed. A way to avoid this is through combining the precautionary principle with a specification of the degree of scientific evidence required to trigger precaution, and/or with some version of the de minimis rule. Third, the precautionary principle does not lead to increased risk-taking, unless the framing is too narrow, and then the same problem applies to other decision rules as well. Fourth, the precautionary principle is indeed value-based, but only to the same extent as other decision rules. Fifth and last, the precautionary principle is not unscientific other than in the weak sense of not being exclusively based on science. In that sense all decision rules are unscientific.     

An examination of the impact of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act on the attractiveness of U.S. capital markets for foreign firms

We examine whether voluntary deregistrations after the passage of Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) were intended to benefit common shareholders by avoiding firms’ costs of complying with SOX or to protect the control rents of managers or controlling shareholders (MCOs). We find that, compared with foreign firms that maintained their SEC registrations, foreign firms that voluntarily deregistered on average had weaker corporate governance, had a significantly less negative stock market reaction when SOX was passed, and suffered a significant price decline when they announced their decision to deregister. We also find evidence indicating that the deregistrations were (to a lesser extent) motivated by firms’ compliance costs related to SOX. Taken together, our results suggest that both agency costs (that is, private benefit of control of the MCOs) and the compliance cost of SOX play a role in motivating foreign firms to withdraw from the U.S. market.     

A comment on the foundations of the precautionary demand for money

The model of the precautionary demand for money presented by Plessner and Reid (1980) is critically examined. It is shown that households derive no benefit from unscheduled consumption (in the model in question) and will therefore choose not to hold precautionary balances. Positive balances were obtained only by ensuring that scheduled consumption was chosen sub-optimally. However, this note confirms the Plessner-Reid hypothesis by explicitly modelling the benefits of unscheduled consumption.     

Risk-based thinking for extreme events: What do terrorism and climate change have in common?

Terrorism and climate change debates are often characterized by worst-case thinking, cost neglect, probability neglect, and avoidance of the notion of acceptable risk. This is not unexpected when dealing with extreme events. However, it can result in a frightened public, costly policy outcomes, and wasteful expenditures. The paper will describe how risk-based approaches are well suited to infrastructure decision-making for extreme events. Risk management concepts will be illustrated with current research of risk-based assessment of climate adaptation engineering strategies including designing new houses in Australia subject to cyclones and extreme wind events. It will be shown that small improvements to house designs at a one-off cost of several thousand dollars per house can reduce damage risks by 70%–80% and achieve billions of dollars of net benefit for community resilience—this helps offset some the predicted adverse effects of climate change for a modest cost. The effect of risk perceptions, insurance, and economic incentives is explored for another climate adaption measure. The paper will also highlight that there is much to be optimistic about the future, and in the ability of risk-based thinking to meet many challenges.     

Option Value to Waiting Created by a Control Problem

We study a principal-agent model in which there is an option to defer a capital project approval decision. A control (incentive) problem makes the option to wait valuable when it would not have been valuable otherwise. Deferring the project approval decision has both a cost and a benefit. The cost of waiting is that the agent's uncertainty regarding future project cost realizations cannot be exploited. However, by delaying the first project's approval decision, the principal can condition its approval on the agent's cost report of the second project. Such conditioning can be valuable in the provision of incentives because of a diversification effect.     

The EC courts' contribution to refining the parameters of precaution

By virtue of its ambiguity, it has largely been left to the courts to flesh out the scope and application of the precautionary principle. This paper examines the contribution made by EC courts to defining the parameters of precautionary decision making. In so doing, it illustrates that, though the precautionary principle is seen to operate in a number of regulatory contexts, discernible trends in judicial interpretations of precaution and the underlying notion of ‘uncertainty’ can nevertheless be identified. In contrast with early judgments, the courts are beginning to explicitly interpret risk assessment processes as having a pivotal role in determining precautionary intervention. Rather than finding simply that circumstances of uncertainty warrant precautionary measures, the courts have started to require that clear, or ‘concrete’, evidence of harm, deriving from risk assessment, is established before intervention is justified. This paper posits three explanations for this shift: (i) the ‘better regulation’ initiative within Europe; (ii) the Commission's Communication on the Precautionary Principle; and (iii) WTO litigation on precautionary safeguard measures. The judicial move to affiliate precaution with risk assessment processes in decision making can be seen as a reflection of these factors.     

Extrapolating understanding of food risk perceptions to emerging food safety cases

Important determinants of risk perceptions associated with foods are the extent to which the potential hazards are perceived to have technological or naturally occurring origins, together with the acute vs. chronic dimension in which the potential hazard is presented (acute or chronic). This study presents a case study analysis based on an extensive literature review examining how these hazard characteristics affect people’s risk and benefit perceptions, and associated attitudes and behaviors. The cases include E. coli incidences (outbreaks linked to fresh spinach and fenugreek sprouts), contamination of fish by environmental pollutants, (organochlorine contaminants in farmed salmon), radioactive contamination of food following a nuclear accident (the Fukushima accident in Japan), and GM salmon destined for the human food chain. The analysis of the cases over the acute vs. chronic dimension suggests that longitudinal quantification of the relationship between risk perceptions and impacts is important for both acute and chronic food safety, but this has infrequently been applied to chronic hazards. Technologies applied to food production tend to potentially be associated with higher levels of risk perception, linked to perceptions that the risk is unnatural. However, for some risks (e.g. those involving biological irreversibility), moral or ethical concerns may be more important determinants of consumer responses than risk or benefit perceptions. (Lack of) trust has been highlighted in all of the cases suggesting transparent and honest risk–benefit communications following the occurrence of a food safety incident. Implications for optimizing associated risk communication strategies, additional research linking risk perception, and other quantitative measures, including comparisons in time and space, are suggested.     

税收福利成本文献述评

税收在资源配置过程中除有形的经济负担之外，还会产生无形的负担，即税收的课征会影响人们在经济活动中的决策。本文通过介绍税收福利成本概念，税收福利成本计量模型的介绍以及对税收福利成本实证研究的回顾三个角度对文献进行整理与评述，并进一步提出研究方向。     

Bank runs and investment decisions revisited

We examine how the possibility of a bank run affects the investment decisions made by a competitive bank. Cooper and Ross [1998. Bank runs: liquidity costs and investment distortions. Journal of Monetary Economics 41, 27-38] have shown that when the probability of a run is small, the bank will offer a contract that admits a bank-run equilibrium. We show that, in this case, the bank will chose to hold an amount of liquid reserves exactly equal to what withdrawal demand will be if a run does not occur; precautionary or “excess” liquidity will not be held. This result allows us to show that when the cost of liquidating investment early is high, an increase in the probability of a run will lead the bank to invest less. However, when liquidation costs are moderate, the level of investment is increasing in the probability of a run.     

Public’s perceived overcrowding risk and their adoption of precautionary actions: a study of holiday travel in China

The importance of travel risk has been recognized, but only a limited number of studies have been conducted on this risk and the precautionary actions the public may take to manage it during holidays. This study applied the protective action decision model and the protection motivation theory to examine the public’s intent to take precautionary actions during holiday times to handle the risk of overcrowding in China. Our survey showed that efficacy-related attributes of precautionary actions were positively correlated, whereas resource-related attributes were negatively correlated, with the intention to take precautionary measures. Risk perception also significantly influenced the adoption intention, but the amount of variance in the intention to adopt precautionary actions that was motivated by risk perception was lower than that related to efficacy-related attributes. In addition, we found that risk perception mediated the influence of past overcrowding experiences on people’s intention to adopt precautionary measures. Travel frequency, length of time spent away for the holiday, and the number of underage family members involved were significantly correlated with the intention to adopt precautionary actions. Finally, this paper discussed suggestions and implications for travelers, tourist departments, and related stakeholders.     

New Canadian Accounting Standards for Private Enterprises and the Adoption Timing Decision

Prior research into the adoption timing decision of organisations in relation to newly promulgated accounting standards has focused exclusively on public enterprises and used economic cost–benefit frameworks as a main method of analysis. The current study examines the impact of a broader range of factors, including cost–benefit considerations, on the adoption timing decision of private firms with respect to the new set of Canadian accounting standards for private enterprises released in 2009. These factors were organised into a coherent framework using the theory of planned behaviour. The survey findings reveal that several items related to attitudes towards the behaviour, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control play a significant role in managers’ adoption behaviour. This study provides relevant insights for private enterprise managers, financial statement users, standard setters and academics.     

An Empirical Model of Optimal Capital Structure1

The authors provide a reasonably user‐friendly and intuitive model for arriving at a company's optimal, or value‐maximizing, leverage ratio that is based on the estimation of company‐specific cost and benefit functions for debt financing. The benefit functions are downward‐sloping, reflecting the drop in the incremental value of debt with increases in the amount used. The cost functions are upward‐sloping, reflecting the increase in costs associated with increases in leverage. The cost functions vary among companies in ways that reflect differences in corporate characteristics such as size, profitability, dividend policy, book‐to‐market ratio, and asset collateral and redeployability. The authors use these cost and benefit functions to produce an estimate of a company's optimal amount of debt. Just as equilibrium in economics textbooks occurs where supply equals demand, optimal capital structure occurs at the point where the marginal benefit of debt equals the marginal cost. The article illustrates optimal debt choices for companies such as Barnes & Noble, Coca‐Cola, Six Flags, and Performance Food Group. The authors also estimate the net benefit of debt usage (in terms of the increase in firm or enterprise value) for companies that are optimally levered, as well as the net cost of being underleveraged for companies with too little debt, and the cost of overleveraging for companies with too much. One critical insight of the model is that the costs associated with overleveraging appear to be significantly higher, at least for some companies, than the costs of being underleveraged.     

The determinants of bond call premia: A signalling approach

A signalling model is presented that provides an additional explanation for the determination of call premia on corporate bonds. It is shown that firms may signal their exclusive information about their probability of default by the choice of their call premia. Stockholders of safer firms (i.e., those that have a lower probability of bankruptcy) have a higher incentive for providing a low call premium. This occurs because the call option will be valuable only if the firm survives by the first call date. This event, however, is more likely for the safer firm. The safer firm will therefore be more willing to sacrifice some current revenues (or equivalently, to provide a higher coupon than it would otherwise have to pay in order to sell the bond at par) by determining a lower call premium. The model therefore predicts a negative correlation between safety and call premia, a correlation that has been empirically confirmed by Fischer, Heinkel, and Zechner (1989). This correlation provides support to the signalling theory vis-à-vis the alternative explanation of taxes determining the call premia. Another contribution of this model is that it ties the call premium decision with expectations of future interest rates. Such expectations are considered important by practitioners, but were rarely considered in previous research.