Moral Hazard,Dividends, and Risk in Banks

In non‐financial firms, higher risk taking results in lower dividend payout ratios. In banking, public guarantees may result in a positive relationship between dividend payout ratios and risk taking. I investigate the interplay between dividend payout ratios and bank risk‐taking allowing for the effect of charter values and capital adequacy regulation. I find a positive relationship between bank risk‐taking and dividend payout ratios. Proximity to the required capital ratio and a high charter value reduce the impact of bank risk‐taking on the dividend payout ratio. My results are robust to different proxies for the dividend payout ratio and bank risk‐taking.     

山东保险业参与海洋灾害风险管理存在的问题及对策研究

山东是我国海洋灾害较为严重的省份,每年因海洋灾害造成的直接经济损失达数十亿元。保险作为市场化的风险转移机制为山东海洋灾害风险补偿和救助发挥了巨大的作用,但目前山东保险业在参与海洋灾害风险管理过程中仍存在诸多问题。本文对这些问题及其根源进行分析,并有针对性地提出了相关对策。     

Risk and crisis communication narratives in response to rapidly emerging diseases

The uncertainty inherent in crises can create a narrative space that is often filled by multiple interpretations about both what is happening and what steps should be taken to resolve the crisis. As more information becomes known, these competing crisis narratives gradually merge into a dominant narrative about the crisis, lessons learned from it, and recommendations for the future. This case study examines the swine industry’s response to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak. The virus spread rapidly throughout the industry and, in a matter of months, had killed approximately 10% of the U.S. swine population. This analysis examines the crisis communication that ensued during that time. More specifically, 13 specialists representing the National Pork Board, American Association of Swine Veterinarians, veterinarians highly active in treating PEDv, university extension agents, and academic researchers were interviewed for this study. A narrative analysis of the interview content revealed that communication efforts made by swine industry leaders successfully shifted the PEDv story from that of competing narratives to a dominant narrative that helped resolve the crisis efficiently. This success is attributed, in part, to effective use of all available industry resources for both conducting research and sharing information rapidly through pre-established communication networks and widely read resources. Results of this narrative analysis reveal a key recommendation that maybe generalizable to similar crisis events. That is, an effective crisis narrative should focus not only on what protective actions to take, but also on a clear explanation regarding the nature of the crisis. Moreover, such explanations must be translated intelligibly to diverse non-scientific publics and provide a compelling rationale for why the recommended actions are vital.     

Helping behavior in a virtual crisis situation: effects of safety awareness and crisis communication

Incident evaluations show that bystanders tend to help: they do not wait for professionals to arrive, but act as required by the situation at hand. In the present study, we investigated how safety awareness (induced before an accident happened) and providing a course of action by emergency services affect helping behavior after witnessing a virtual accident with two victims. The main task of the participants was to arrive at a job interview in time. Safety awareness was manipulated by the specific organization they went to: either promoting safe traffic or healthy living. The results show that all participants were inclined to help. Participants who were primed towards safe traffic more often called the emergency number, but talked to the victim less often. Participants who had received specific courses of action moved the victim less often. In all, the results clearly indicate the value of effective risk communication (before an event occurs) and crisis communication (after an event has occurred), as both types of information improve the quality of actual helping behavior at the scene.     

Risk cultures and dominant approaches towards disasters in seven European countries

This paper builds upon the risk culture concept started with Mary Douglas’ and Aaron Wildavsky’s seminal work on risk and culture. Based upon the empirical results of a qualitative sociological study on sociocultural factors affecting risk perception and crisis communication in seven European countries, a theoretical model, illustrating how differences in disasters framing imply diverse approaches to risk and disaster management, is suggested. According to this framework, culturally bounded assumptions and conventions strongly influence how communities make sense of risks and hazards and how these communities consider some ways of dealing with disasters more appropriate than others. The framework suggested in this article distinguishes between risk cultures of a given society, which do not necessarily respond to nation states. In order to explain differences in how cultures deal with risks and disasters, and to define the main features of our typology, three main interrelated dimensions have been selected: disaster framing, trust in authorities and blaming. By analyzing differences and similarities in how people perceive and interpret disasters, as well as to whom the responsibility for risk prevention and crisis management is attributed, in seven European countries, three specific ideal types of risk cultures emerged: state-oriented risk culture, individual-oriented risk culture and fatalistic risk culture. Implications for crisis management and communication in case of a disaster will be addressed for each of these risk cultures.     

Sickness absence and health care in an economic federation

This paper addresses vertical fiscal externalities in a model where the state governments provide health care and the federal government provides a sickness benefit. Both levels of government tax labor income and policy decisions affect labor income as well as participation in the labor market. The results show that the vertical externality affecting the state governments’ policy decisions can be either positive or negative depending on, among other things, the wage elasticity of labor supply and the marginal product of expenditure on health care. Moreover, it is proved that the vertical fiscal externality will not vanish by assigning all powers of taxation to the states.      

Community social capital and individual disaster preparedness in immigrants and Canadian-born individuals: an ecological perspective

Abstract

Psychological research on the predictors of disaster preparedness has mainly focused on individual-level factors, although the social environment plays an important role. Our goal is to provide a systemic perspective to help improve risk communication and risk management for natural disaster risks. We examined how community-level social capital related to individual-level disaster preparedness in immigrants compared with Canadian-born individuals. We characterised participants’ communities’ social capital by conceptually linking two national surveys using postal codes. We performed sequential linear multiple regression analysis to examine the relationship between community social capital and individual disaster preparedness. Results revealed three components of social capital: societal trust, interaction with friends, and neighbourhood contact. Societal trust positively predicted the extent to which immigrants and Canadian-born individuals knew someone who would search for them post-disaster. Interestingly, results revealed that Canadian-born individuals were more likely to uptake emergency planning when living in a community with strong societal trust, while the reverse was true for immigrants. Results suggest that some components of social capital may have an effect on certain preparedness behaviours. Societal trust could have both positive and negative effects on emergency planning depending on individuals’ immigrant status. Risk communication and risk management should consider social capital as part of the framework for effective disaster preparedness.     

Bias in an Empirical Approach to Determining Bond and Mortgage Risk Premiums

Empirical studies of bond and commercial mortgage performance often quantify a required risk premium by examining the difference between the promised yield and the realized yield as adjusted for default occurrence. These studies omit the effects of various other sources of risk, however, including collateral asset market risk, interest rate risk, and possibly call risk. These omissions downwardly bias the empirical risk premium estimate on the debt. In this paper, we disentangle and quantify the sources of this bias by modeling secured coupon debt (the commercial mortgage) as used in the calculation of a realized investment return. We consider deterministic and stochastic interest rate economies with mortgage contracts that are either noncallable or subject to a temporary prepayment lockout period. Given realistic parameter values associated with the term structure, underlying asset dynamics, and debt contracting, we show that the magnitude of the bias can be significant.     

Asymmetric information,imitative behaviour and communication: price formation in an experimental asset market

The paper describes experimental results from a simulated stock market with manipulation of asymmetric information and communication, including conditions intended to promote imitative behaviour and rumour. Price discovery was inefficient when the presence of insiders was disguised, compared to a homogeneous expectations baseline. When the presence of insiders was revealed observed prices became efficient with respect to bad news but not with respect to good news, possibly suggesting loss-averse behaviour. With free communication there was a decrease in both efficiency and price volatility—insider information was masked by noise. Price formation under these conditions was similar to baseline, but with weak evidence of speculative pricing. It is conjectured that other factors than informational noise may be necessary determinants of herd behaviour, but further work is indicated.     

Sustainability,institutionalization and the duality of structure: Contradiction and unintended consequences in the political context of an Australian water business

This paper presents the results of a longitudinal case study of an Australian public sector water business in order to examine how, and to what extent, did the institutionalization and deinstitutionalization of internal sustainable and environmental management routines, practices and procedures occur over the period 2001 to the start of 2011. It adopts the Dillard et al. framework of institutionalization which incorporates institutional theory, Weber's axes of tension and structuration theory. In 2001, the criteria for costing and financial reporting practices and the criteria for environmental regulation and management practices were competing at the economic and political economic level, the organizational field level and the organizational level. An unintended consequence of this was no accounting for environmental costs. Environmental management criteria and practices were characterized by compliance with EPA regulatory requirements whilst financial management and costing criteria and practices were characterized by New Public Management criteria. Subsequent to 2001, an unintended consequence of the establishment of separate legislative and regulatory bodies has been the institutionalization of competing legitimating criteria with regard to water conservation, externalities, environmental regulation and financial reporting and costing. Within this context, the organizational field and the organizational level of the individual water business has been characterized by the development of new organizational practices and routines with regard to water conservation as well as unintended consequences and decoupling. At all three levels, the ontological security of agents has been evident in the development of new criteria and practices for sustainable development, whilst the routine procedures of the respective management systems were a source of ontological security to the relevant agents.     

Brand Equity and Firm Risk: An Empirical Investigation in an Emerging Market

The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between brand equity and firm risk in Turkey using a sample of 254 firm-year observations for the period 2009–2014. Our findings suggest that brand equity is an important determinant of equity risk in addition to conventional firm-specific variables. In particular, after controlling for firm-specific variables, the results reveal that firms with high brand equity experience lower volatility in stock returns. We also find that enhancing brand equity is an important tool for firms in reducing unsystematic and downside systematic risk in their stock prices. Our findings are robust to different valuation models of domestic and global investors as well as different methods of estimations. The results are encouraging for both marketing managers and investors, particularly those in emerging markets where stock price volatility is relatively higher than in developed markets.     

The Value of Precontract Information About an Agent's Ability in the Presence of Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection

We analyze the expected value of information about an agent's type in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection. Information about the agent's type enables the principal to sort/screen agents of different types. The value of the information decreases in the variability of output and the agent's risk aversion, two factors that are typically associated with the severity of the moral hazard problem. However, the value of the information about agent type first increases but ultimately decreases in the severity of adverse selection. The decrease comes about because the means available to the principal to induce effort—namely, the pay–performance sensitivity—must also be used to sort/screen agents, and these two goals conflict. This decline in value occurs despite the monotonically increasing importance of the information in determining the principal's expected profits. Further, we show that the peak value of information occurs at a predictable level of adverse selection. These results imply that over some range, the importance of the information will be increasing, and the value of the information will be simultaneously decreasing, in the severity of adverse selection.     

Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk,liquidity, and behavioral factors

This paper contributes to the fixed income research by identifying determinants of term premium in an emerging market’s treasury bond yields with particular attention on ambiguity. We use Nelson–Siegel yield curves generated from daily bond price quotes as input to construct a three-factor affine term structure model which decomposes observed yields into risk-neutral and term premium components. We also construct an ambiguity index using intraday FX return data following Brenner and Izhakian (2018). Our analyses suggest that a combination of factors representing market risk, credit risk, liquidity, ambiguity, and investor sentiments can explain majority of the variation in term premia. Explanatory power of credit risk measures are found to increase while those of volatility, ambiguity, and sentiment measures diminish with the maturity horizon. The results imply that ambiguity aversion of bond investors is a major determinant of the shape of the yield curve as it drives the premia for short end of the yield curve lower in line with the expectation of flight-to-safety behavior.     

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage‐Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields

Differences between yields on comparable‐maturity U.S. Treasury nominal and real debt, the so‐called breakeven inflation (BEI) rates, are widely used indicators of inflation expectations. However, better measures of inflation expectations could be obtained by subtracting inflation risk premiums (IRP) from the BEI rates. We provide such decompositions using an affine arbitrage‐free model of the term structure that captures the pricing of both nominal and real Treasury securities. Our empirical results suggest that long‐term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past few years, and IRP, although volatile, have been close to zero on average.     

Snakes and career ladders in the investment banking industry: the making of Barclays De Zoete Wedd (BZW) - an international perspective, 1982-96

This paper emphasises the importance of business history for analysing labour market structures and practices in financial markets in the United Kingdom and more particularly at Barclays De Zoete Wedd (BZW), the international investment banking arm of the British bank Barclays plc. By adopting an historical perspective, this study departs from existing literature and presents new explanations concerning the importance of the relationship between business history and the origins and functions of internal labour markets. The theoretical framework elaborated involves a model and a timeline in its analysis, which highlights significant emerging patterns in internal labour markets that become evident over time. The study reveals evidence that, contrary to the arguments raised by scholars which suggest a decline in internal labour market practices in favour of a return to a more market-based system, internal labour market arrangements continue to apply to an organisation such as BZW at all stages in its organisational development.